1. Google Confidential and Proprietary 1Google Confidential and Proprietary 1
Google 2014 Holiday Trends
5 Internet Secrets That Will Make
or Break Your Season
Cindy Laning
laning@google.com
Strategic Partnership Manager
Tim McLain
tmclain@netsertive.com
Senior Marketing Manager
netsertive.com
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#AssertiveOnline
My Business is #AssertiveOnline with @Netsertive
Twitter Q&A
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5key trends for
holiday 2014
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1Online engagement will be paramount
to holiday success
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Looking back: Mobile during 2013 holiday
5
toys bought
per second
on mobile
devices on
Amazon
35%
Of website
traffic in
Q4 ‘13 was
mobile
40%
Black Friday
e-commerce
purchases
on mobile
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60%
of total digital media
time spent
mobile milestones:
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mobile milestones:
38%
of total traffic
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71%
of smartphone consumers
have used a store locator to
find a store
Mobile plays a crucial role in shopping research, beyond
m-commerce
93%
of mobile researchers go on
to complete a purchase of a
product or service
46%
of showrooming shoppers
still ended up making a
purchase in-store
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Lead consumers to your store or website
Research
online
=
Search Marketing
Ad
Compare online,
touch in-store
=
Search Marketing
Ad
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40%of purchases are
made crossing
channels
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Give customers what they are looking for instantly
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Seasonal automotive trends
Source: Google Internal Data, 2013
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Automotive: New model spikes research
Sources: Google Trends <google.com/trends> & Google Keyword Planner
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1Tent pole events will no longer
be a single day
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Black Friday turns gray…
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Day 1 Day 4 Day 7 Day 10 Day 13 Day 16 Day 19 Day 22 Day 25 Day 28 Day 31 Day 34
2012 2013
Thanksgiving
Day
Black
Friday
Cyber
Monday
Black Friday Query Demand
Black Friday
Query Demand +27%
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15%
5%
9%
19%
48%
I've already started before Labor Day before Halloween Black Friday/Cyber
Monday
early December
EARLY START
29% of shoppers will have
started holiday shopping
before Halloween
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Match the customer demand calendar
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Home furnishings trends
Sources: Google Trends <google.com/trends> & Google Keyword Planner
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1More opportunities to influence always
connected consumers
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daily time spent with digital
2010 2013
Shoppers are constantly connected…
3:11
5:46
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Hours spent researching for holiday purchase
2012 2014
76%
using online resources
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78%
of consumers are not loyal to a particular brand
And they are open to influence…
57%
of holiday shoppers don’t have a specific products or
brand in mind when they begin their holiday shopping
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5
12
2010 2013
Influence shoppers before they
visit your store
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Audio video installation trends
Sources: Google Trends <google.com/trends> & Google Keyword Planner
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Retailers and
Store Visits
69% YouTube
64% Twitter
61%
Word of Mouth
74%
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Create useful content
Engage with the connected consumers
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Create informative content
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1Fewer store visits but more
value per visit
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2010 2013
38
17
fewer visits to store…
Footsteps in billions
(Nov-Dec)
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$681
$783
2010 2013
…but more purposeful
ecomm +57%
offline +13%
retail sales in $billions
(Nov-Dec)
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…which makes each visit twice as valuable
2010 2013
$17
$42
(offline)
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Measure cross channel impact
In-Store Visit Beta
Enables advertisers to measure how
Google Search traffic is driving store
visits across mobile, tablet and
desktop devices.
In-Store
Transaction Beta
Effectively measurement of offline
sales driven by AW clicks through
importing offline point-of-sale
transaction data into the Adwords
interface.
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1 Pricing & shipping will
drive purchases
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92%are checking online for best prices
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#1comparing prices is the number 1
reason smartphone owners
search in-store
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if shipping is free
8 out of 10 will wait…
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The Faster, The Better
9%
14%
18%
75%
None of the above
Same-day shipping for a premium
Next-day shipping for a small premium
Expedited (2 to 3) day free shipping
When buying online, if a product is available from multiple retailers at the exact same price, would any of
the following shipping offers sway your purchase decision?
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Procrastinators Get One More Day to Ship
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
2-Day
shipping
Overnight
shipping
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(Just don’t over-promise
and under-deliver)
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Top Holiday Trends for 2014
1. Online engagement will be paramount to holiday success
2. Tent pole events will no longer be a single day
3. More opportunities to influence always connected consumers
4. Fewer store visits but more value per visit
5. Pricing & shipping drive purchasing
Google 2014 Holiday Trends
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1 Happy holidays from
Google & Netsertive!
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Google 2014 Holiday Trends
5 Internet Secrets That Will Make
or Break Your Season
Cindy Laning
laning@google.com
Strategic Partnership Manager
Tim McLain
tmclain@netsertive.com
Senior Marketing Manager
netsertive.com
Hinweis der Redaktion
Let’s dig into the first trend this year – mobile. We’ll start by looking at what happened in 2013.
[Animate]
35% - IBM Digital Benchmarks
http://www-01.ibm.com/software/marketing-solutions/benchmark-hub/newyear.html
[Animate]
Over 5 toys – Amazon press release, http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176060&p=irol-
newsArticle&ID=1886961&highlight=
[Animate]
40% Black Friday – Custora Holiday 2014
Alternate stats:
Online sales for Department Stores in the forth quarter grew by 62.8% over 2012, with mobile sales growing by 49.6% year over year
Health and Beauty online sales grew by 14.7% over 2012, with mobile sales growing by 81.7% year over year
Online Home Goods sales grew by 46.4% over 2012, with mobile sales growing by 38% year over year
Online sales of Apparel grew by 10.2% over 2012, with mobile sales growing by 54.5% year over year
52% of online smartphone shoppers used their smartphone throughout their shopping process during holiday 2013 (Google-Ipsos Media CT Post-Holiday Shopping Intentions Study, Jan. 2014)
Sales on smartphones and tablets reached a high of 19.1% of all e-commerce sales in December 2013, up three-fold from December 2011.
Major mobile milestone: Mobile (smartphones and tablets) account for 60% of total digital media time spent, up from 50% a year ago. (comScore, May 2014, http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Blog/Major-Mobile-Milestones-in-May-Apps-Now-Drive-Half-of-All-Time-Spent-on-Digital)
eMarketer estimates that American adults spend 23% of their daily media time on mobile devices in 2014. (Source: eMarketer, Apr 2014)
50% of Millennial smartphone owners say that they access the Internet more often through their phone than through a computer. (http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/229241/millennials-most-digitally-connected-generation.html)
Mobile site traffic across all industries reached 38.2% in March 2014, more than double the percentage in March 2012. (IBM 2014 http://www.internetretailer.com/2014/06/26/another-holiday-sprint-awaits-e-retailers)
At Netsertive, our Google Premier SMB Partner – mobile website traffic hit
41% across their home furnishing store clients
50% for automotive dealers
37% for audio video integrators
Source: Google-Nielsen Mobile Path to Purchase custom study, Nov. 2013
Mobile influences purchases across channels: 93% of people who use mobile to research a retail purchase go on to buy in a local, physical store. This means local retailers have the biggest opportunity to turn online research into a local sale.
46% of showrooming shoppers still ended up making a purchase in-store, an 11-point increase from 2011.
This means they come to your business, phone or tablet in hand, and look up your products and prices. The concern was that they used this information to buy from an ecommerce competitor. Our data shows showroomers are more educated, spend more per transaction, and tend to buy from the local retailer providing great service and information in larger numbers.
71% of smartphone consumers used a store locator to find a store
Immediacy is key: 55% of consumers using mobile to research want to purchase within the hour
74% used a mobile search engine at some point before purchasing
Shoppers spend an average ~15 hours per week researching purchases on mobile sites and apps.
Alternate:
68% of US online adults now use their phones to access the web in stores (Forrester, 2014)
84% of people report using mobile in a store during the shopping process. What are they doing?
Looking for deals
Price comparison (49%)
Checked stock elsewhere (35%)
An effective mobile experience has to be pertinent to the moment – whether at home or in the shopping aisle. The more the mobile experience and information match the shopper’s needs at a given moment, the more likely she is to buy and the higher the conversion rate.
A recent Telemetrics study found that after doing a mobile search for a product or product category 65% of shoppers said they were looking to complete their transaction within the day — or even sooner, depending on the category
Shoppers are going to choose different ways to explore products they are looking for, here’s how they find you:
Researching online they find your local inventory through your search engine marketing advertisements [Animate]
If they want to compare prices online but still need to physically see the product in person they can find your in-store stock through search [Animate]
Or if they simply want to browse through the store they can find your location, store hours, store phone number through Google Places
Inform your shopper and give them as many options as possible to explore your products before and during their shopping trip.
[Next slide]
TRANSITION: The ability to influence a holiday shopper early on in the path to purchase is important, but those channels might not be where the shopper makes a purchase.
As savvy retailers you know that research, information gathering and comparison shopping are not always done on the same channel where the purchase is made. ComScore has found that 40% of purchases are made crossing channels, whether searching in store and purchasing online or vice versa. The retailers who embrace the various channels and options that customers favor will deliver a positive customer experience and ultimately drive sales and brand loyalty.
Source: comScore.
June 2014 - http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press-Releases/2014/6/Study-Consumers-Demand-More-Flexibility-When-Shopping-Online
Additional/Alternate stat – 67% of consumers use multiple screens sequentially to shop.
http://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/research-studies/the-new-multi-screen-world-study.html
Many customer journeys start with search.
The key to success during the busy holiday season is to be proactive. You have the opportunity to display a tailored marketing message to local customers the instant they’re looking for you, your products, and your brands.
For instance, many Mom’s and Dad’s are looking to upgrade their homes for the holiday’s. Think home theater’s with a big TV or projector, custom seating and lighting, powerful speakers, the works.
In the Raleigh, NC region, Audio Advice has a solid presence through search year round. But during the holidays they beef up their online marketing spend to capture searches like the couple I mentioned, leading to more signed contracts and more installations in Q4 and on into the new year.
Search marketing is an effective cornerstone of your online marketing strategy.
But don’t forget display advertising.
[Aminate] Target used GDN display ads that allow the user to choose what products they want to explore through the ad giving them the ability to interact in a meaningful way.
Display banners increase brand and product recall among local consumers, leading to more searches – and ultimately more store and phone traffic for your business.
[Animate] Electrolux offers display ads to local retailers through Netsertive – driving their new campaign – Dry Them in 14 – down to local stores to drive interest and foot traffic.
So does Epson for audio video installers.
And Chrysler for their local dealers who work with Netsertive.
Many brands support their local retail channel with turnkey digital marketing programs.
They’re another important part of your holiday marketing outreach.
These programs make it easy for retailers to be present in buying journeys in local markets.
For example, Serta mattresses has teamed up with Netsertive to make it easy for independent retailers like Jeff Lynch PLUS Deeward and Bode to be present online using text ads that appear when upper funnel keywords are used - so that they are present even when the shopper hasn’t decided on a retailer yet.
This is a tactic used by national brands in automotive, home goods and audio video to drive local shoppers to their local retailers. Giving local retailers the ability to leverage their brands to source new customers everyday.
Speaking of automotive – this brings me to my first trend data slide. (Home furnishings and audio video folks, we’ll get to you in a few minutes.)
At Google, we work closely with auto brands to help them leverage research tends for national marketing campaigns. Netsertive helps local dealers do the same.
A Summer Purchase Catalyst analysis our Google Auto team did last summer showed that 35% of sales happen in the summer, and with the 90 day in-market window, summer search interest peaks in July.
The risk of slowing down summer coverage is missing the early conversations for those looking to buy in the come fall months, or doing their preliminary research leading up to a December "sell-down" purchase.
So the summer months see the highest levels of research online, eventually peaking during the holidays.
To stay ahead of that demand curve and the 60-90 day purchase cycle, it’s critical to put more money in-market now.
Brands and dealers who are assertive with their online marketing investments in the late summer and early Fall capture more demand as the end of year approaches. The goal Is to close out inventory on dealer lots and promote the following years models into a strong first quarter each year.
Netsertive compared the month’s of September and December last year, with dealers seeing their
conversions increase 36%.
Their overall cost per conversion went up about 11% with increased competition playing a role.
Another automotive trend the Netsertive team sees every year centers around the launch of new models.
The new Chrysler 200, for example, generated a spike in interest online, and many dealers increased their digital marketing investment to turn research into results.
Netsertive saw local market queries increase about 25% this summer over last summer.
How is online visibility helping brands?
Chrysler, like many auto OEMs, is having a break out year.
August sales rose 20 percent over a year ago – it was the best August in 12 years.
Sales of the Chrysler 200 (including the 2014 and 2015 models) were up 7 percent compared with the same month a year ago.
The numbers are a sign of a strong month as dealers sell off old models to make room for the new.
Note the GREEN trend in mobile searches– this is something we’re seeing across the board, and will be a central theme in 2015 for online marketers.
Ignore mobile at your own peril as search volumes and usage increases!
Black Friday took on a new term last year – “Gray Friday”. This happened because Black Friday sales were a bit diluted as retailers started BF promotions/deal earlier and consumers responded. More and more consumers are leaving their family celebrations to start shopping on Thanksgiving evening. Shopper Trak’s CEO said it best "Retailers stretched Black Friday deals and promotions across November - removing the focus from just one big day of shopping.”
Additional supporting stats:
Thanksgiving emerged as a major shopping day as more stores opened earlier than ever before. Consumers responded in droves:
Store traffic on Thanksgiving Day jumped 27% to 45 million shoppers (vs. 35M ly)
A quarter of all weekend shoppers were in position at stores by 8 p.m. on Thursday NRF
Black Friday remained the biggest shopping day but Thanksgiving cut into its success and watered down the urgency that we’ve seen in years past:
NRF: Store traffic on Black Friday rose just 3.4% to 92 million shoppers NRF
conflicting data from ShopperTrak:
Black Friday store sales fell 13.2% y/y, with foot traffic down 11.4%
"We believe the Thursday openings are gaining sales at the expense of Black Friday." “The consumers really responded to Thursday’s openings, actually more than anybody anticipated” - Bill Martin, the founder & EVP of ShopperTrak
Sources to Articles:
Reuters “Ealry start hurst Black Friday, sales, Cyber Monday hits record.” 12/3/13,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/03/us-usa-retail-shoppertrak-idUSBRE9B000020131203
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/11/21/black-friday-comes-early-as-u-s-retailers-panic-over-holiday-sales.html
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/11/12/walmart-black-friday-deals-early-openings/3501037/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-gregory/is-black-friday-at-risk-o_b_4340493.html
If we look at consumer demand for Black Friday. You will notice that not only is consumer interest up 27% YoY, but consumers are starting almost a week earlier to search for Black Friday information/deals/etc.
Source: Google Internal Data, Black Friday KW’s, All Devices
Netsertive’s data shows that search volume increases 30% during Q4 alone.
That’s why now is the time to invest in an online marketing program that turns online research into new sales opportunities in your local market.
When do consumers plan to start their shopping?
Source: Google GCS fielded on 7/24
GCS Link: http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=esbu6y3w5v3um
Source: Google Consumer Surveys, n=2,510 Survey Fielded Week of 7/24/14
QVC not only kicks off the holiday season in July, but they continue to have special sales on the 25th of every month leading up to the holiday season.
Additionally, they have daily deals that they promote through remarketing and other display tactics.
This is certainly taking it to the extremes. But with the surge in price comparison shopping and free shipping offers customers are getting deals throughout Nov and Dec.
The key takeaway is that NOW is the time to lock down your online marketing outreach to build momentum into the holidays.
When it comes to home furnishings retailers – Netsertive’s data shows that furniture gets researched more than twice as often as mattresses and appliances combined.
The key for retailers in this industry is to keep visibility strong all year round, with the highest number of searches occuring just after New Year’s.
In other words, the holiday season sets the stage for a big start to your sales year.
The reason: Our trend data shows that online research during the holiday season in Q4 continues into Q1 each year.
Netsertive compared the month’s of September and December last year, local store owners saw their
conversions increase 71%.
Their overall cost per conversion went down 18%.
Clear:
Daily time w/ digital.
2010 to 2013
+2 hours
Who has that time?
Source: eMarketer 2014
For most product categories consumers report spending more time researching before purchasing an item than in 2012.
[Animate]
And the vast majority are using digital media to do so.
(Note, no 2012 data for Shoes for footware)
Google Ipsos Post 2013 holiday research
57% - Google Ipsos Post 2013 Holiday study, Jan 2014
78% - Nielsen http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2014/connecting-through-the-clutter-stay-ahead-of-consumers-to-win-in-todays-fragmented-markets.html
Transition: With information at literally at their fingertips, shoppers are more informed & educated about their purchase decisions and ready to buy.
Clear:
In 2010 – 5 sources of info before buying
In 2013 – 12.
More informed about products to buy, brands they want, retailers to shop at.
Each time they walk in a store as a new, mindful, informed and purposeful shopper.
Increasingly important to connected w/ them before they step foot into your store or click on your site
Source: Google, Inmar, ZMOT Study 2013
Online influences most custom audio video installations these days.
Today’s clients may rely on a referral to start their research journey. But they go online to research local integrators and installers, checking reviews, the brands they carry, and looking at pictures of similar projects.
Netsertive’s local integrators see spikes in research all year round – but especially during the holidays.
Comparing the month’s of September and December last year, integrators saw their
conversions increase went up 69%.
Their overall cost per conversion went down 33%.
The holidays are clearly a big opportunity for integrators to spend more online to drive more conversions at a lower cost per conversion.
Transition: We just mentioned that digital is where most research is done, but let’s look at what channels on and offline are influencing their decision.
When asked what channels influenced purchase here are the top four that were reported. 64% of shoppers referenced YouTube, making it the number one online channel that influences shoppers.
*Stated influence of media touchpoints for recent purchasers when making a decision to purchase
Source: Think with Google - http://think.storage.googleapis.com/docs/path-to-purpose_infographics.pdf
They key for brands and local retailers: Create content that makes their life easier!
For instance, what Mom hasn’t told their kids to turn off the lights. All day. Everyday!
Lutron offered a series of videos to explain the energy savings and convenience of lighting sensors – to stop the finger pointing!
Georgia’s Woodstock Furniture Outlet created a tutorial for picking the right mattress. They chose to highlight their Serta iSeries products, delivering a national brand message to their local market, steering customers to their 3 store locations.
Create content that makes their life easier. Like Ford’s How-to wash your car the right way.
OR Bill & Rod’s Appliances, a Netsertive client in Michigan, showing customers how to measure for your dishwasher installation.
Transition: Consumers are making fewer visits to store.
Clear:
Store footsteps/traffic (billions).
2010 vs. 2013
Nov/Dec (Holiday).
Plummeted from 38 to 17. 55% reduction.
Drastic. At first glance, alarming to traditional retailers….
Source: ShopperTrak data for Nov/Dec 2013, as cited in WSJ, Jan 2014.
Transition: Before get too alarmed, let’s dig deeper and look at sales in this same time period.
Clear:
Dec holiday sales in that same time period, 2010 vs. 2013.
+15%, growing as a whole
CLICK. Let’s break it down into ecomm & online.
Ecomm +57%.
Not surprising, increasingly connected. Growth engine behind retail. But ecommerce still only 6% of all retail sales
Focus your attention on the larger Offline sales (majority). Did not plummet like the footsteps did. +13%.
Consumers are not walking into stores as often, but when they do, they are ready to buy. Converting at higher rates.
Source: Mastercard, Nov-Dec 2010 &Nov- Dec 2013, $B
Transition: and that makes each visit twice as valuable.
Store sales divided by footsteps give us the “value” of each store visit.
Can see it’s more than doubled in that time period ($17 vs. $42) as consumers make more purposeful visits to store, walking in ready to buy.
(If you were to think about the purchase funnel, store visits have slid down a bit…. Less upper funnel…. Increasingly more middle/lower funnel)
92% of shoppers check online for best prices. (https://drive.google.com/a/google.com/file/d/0BypFfkHFh2fNSWtjZmZDQkpsNlU/edit?usp=sharing)
91% of shoppers cited low prices as important or very important when shopping online – no. 1 response (Shop.org [PDF], Feb 2014)
56% of consumers will keep shopping with a particular retailer as long as that retailer offers the best price, whether inside stores or online. (InternetRetailer.com via CFI survey, April 2014)
Comparing prices is the number one reason people smartphone owners search in-store (http://www.localsearchinsider.org/mobile-goes-universal-new-survey-shows-older-generations-embrace-mobile-as-local-shopping-companion/archives/)
Separately, second only to messaging/emailing a friend at 84%, 71% of consumers use their smartphones primarily in-store to compare product prices (64% for social networking and 51% to check customer reviews) (InternetRetailer.com from Usablenet, November 2013)
Comparing prices is the number one reason people smartphone owners search in-store (http://www.localsearchinsider.org/mobile-goes-universal-new-survey-shows-older-generations-embrace-mobile-as-local-shopping-companion/archives/)
Separately, second only to messaging/emailing a friend at 84%, 71% of consumers use their smartphones primarily in-store to compare product prices (64% for social networking and 51% to check customer reviews) (InternetRetailer.com from Usablenet, November 2013)
But only 2 out of 5 retailers plan to offer free shipping this holiday season (June 2014 survey of ChannelAdvisor clients http://www.internetretailer.com/2014/07/29/many-e-retailers-plan-start-holiday-marketing-september )
Online shoppers want free shipping. Consumers expect to get their items delivered for free when they shop online.
58% have added items to their shopping carts to qualify for free shipping (comScore/UPS June 2014)
83% (or 8 out of 10) are willing to wait an additional two days for delivery if shipping is free (comScore/UPS June 2014)
Free Shipping was the 2nd most important/very important factor when shopping online (behind low prices) (Shop.org [PDF], Feb 2014)
Free shipping is better when it’s fast. As consumers order online and receive their goods, shipped free, within a handful of days of their order, they grow intolerant of long shipping times/estimated delivery times can make for abandoned carts.
Amazon Prime Free 2-Day shipping a force to be reckoned with here
Per a March 2014 Accenture report [PDF], free expedited shipping is the best way to sway consumers to buying online with all else being equal:
Home Depot is building out it’s distribution network to be able to reach 90% of the country within 2 days (RIS, June 2014)
Best Buy actively working towards beating (and may have beat) Amazon for ship times as of Dec 2013 (InternetRetailer.com StellaService Jan 2014)
This year 2014 brings one more day for last minute shoppers to make purchases and choose
Last holiday season both UPS and FedEx struggled to meet the last minute demand for expedited shipping. One casualty was SimplyLobsters.com, which sends everything overnight—it’s fresh or bust for lobsters. Unfortunately of the 700 packages ordered for arrival by Christmas Eve, 20% didn’t get there in time.
Roughly half of those orders were ruined.
http://www.internetretailer.com/2014/01/21/flood-late-shoppers-made-holidays-challenging
More on Fedex/UPS holiday foibles in 2014: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101295575#.