Presentation held by Author & Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard in April 2009 at the european television and media management academy (etma) in Strasbourg, France.

1. The Future of Media
Digital media business and broadcasting -
opportunities, trends and scenarios
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3. The challenge: New Models!
Content Consumption (all)
Revenue Potential
Success with Traditional Content Models
Was Is 2 years 5 years

4. The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’
• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly
growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)
• Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model
(Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)
• Broadband culture drives further commodization
• What used to be paid for is now often free
• Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for
the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)
• Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition

5. But this is not about technology...
The Age of Collaboration
Emerging cultural practices
New business models

6. The Future: connecting the users is the key to success

8. Copy Economy
Access /
Usage / Sharing
Economy

9. All of a sudden
COMMU-
NICATION MEDIA
&
SEARCH CONTENT ADVER- & ENTER-
TISING TAIN-
TELE- MENT
COM

10. Despite all the current gloom & fear:
Bundles and Flat
Rates will drive this
MUCH bigger
potential (imho)
Huge potential - once
licensing issues are
solved
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value Study

11. The new Content Economy: the User is a major force

12. Starting in 2009:
• Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers
• Deep collaboration becomes the KEY
requirement for creating new business opps
• Over-the top layers (search, social media...)
will come down, telecoms will move up!

13. 2010: ‘Telecom’ and Media = TeleMedia
Experience Platform
Service Pipe
Content Pipe
Data
Pipe

14. Media will follow the switch from Closed to Open

16. Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value of Packaging
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of Context
100%
Value of Experience
Value of Meta-Content
Value of Packaging
75%
50%
25%
Value of ‘a Copy’
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

17. The Age of Collaboration:
Egosystem
becomes
Ecosystem

18. Digital Content Trends
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

19. Source: The Standard

20. TOTAL Mobility Everywhere
CONSTANT Peering and Connecting
DEEP Oceans of Content & Information

21. • Straight to Digital Content
• Straight to Bundled Access
• Straight to Mobile
• Straight to next-gen Advertising

22. Remixed and User-made Content:
50% of consumption by 2015?

23. The Future of Content: Copy $ down, Attention $$ up
Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

24. $3 per app to do what
people would do for free,
anyway: listen to their music
A great alternative to
getting Radio-Play (i.e.
NetPlay)
A great way to sell
concert tickets and offer other
location-based services
A direct line of
communication - from band
to fan - is worth Gold

25. This is where Content resides now...

26. The Future of Content is in
the Cloud and the
Crowd

27. • Collaborative Revenue Models
•The joint development
of New Generatives
based on Open Access

28. Media $$$: no
longer about
Distribution

29. A good example of how not to do this...

30. Listening, Reading or Watching
=
Keeping, Copying
& Sharing

31. ‘Free’
‘Free’

32. Content on the Internet will be licensed like we
license Radio & TV, today - starting with Music
• Online access = content access
• Music access = payment included
• Create a new ecosystem on-top!

33. Permission, accounting and... compensating

34. The Printing Press
brought us
Copyright
The Internet brings
Usage-
us
Rights

35. Google & Free Music in China
• Free / Feels Like Free Music for China!
• Unlimited, unprotected downloads
• Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads
• In China, little ‘cannibalization’ concerns
• Google is willing to ‘lubricate’
• Industry willing because: China is ‘lost’ for
traditional Copyright

36. Next
Generation
‘Advertising’
New
New Data Content
Economy
Economy

38. In this world, Permission, Attention and
Trust leads to Content’s Remuneration

39. Questioning assumptions

40. So should we control what People do online
in order to protect a traditional business model?

41. ‘New Money’ Examples

43. Social Media is becoming... CRM!

44. Advertising...?

46. The new Generatives of Content
influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...
Conversation
Convenience
Selection / Filtering
Packaging
Individualization
Immediacy
Tr u s t

47. Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention
Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

48. Example: the difference between
iStockphoto photos are purchased
because of:
• Much better metadata.
• Better findability.
• Faster service.
• Low & attractive price-points

49. New Generatives and The Future of Television

50. The TV experience is becoming
unified across all screens

51. What’s new about that?
• Your own, unique selection
of add-ons, widgets and
applications on all platforms
• This TV
knows
who you
are!

52. And how will we experience all this?

54. The Sharing Economy Logic
...the Output (i.e. publish, re-
mix, co-create, life-stream...)
the Input (i.e. remuneration in
cash, attention, reputation...)
... the Thruput (i.e. usage
data, meta content, attention
trails >> New Data Economics)

55. Welcome to the Culture of Collaboration
• Collaborative value creation: new $$$ together
•Make Money around the content
•Compensation not Control

57. ‘Free’ gets my Attention...
Merit and Trust gets my Money.

58. Thanks for listening!
Please talk back
★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
★ twitter.com/gleonhard
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