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Piracy Is Increasing At A 
   Phenomenal Rate
     December 6, 2012
Cisco Forecasts P2P Filesharing Will Grow 
  250% from 2012 to 2016 ‐ Dec 6 2012
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps,
BitTorrent Traffic Grew 40% in the US 
       from 2011 to 2012 – Nov 8, 2012
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps,
BitTorrent Traffic Grew 40% in the US 
        from 2011 to 2012 – Nov 7 2012
http://www.sandvine.com/downloads/documents/Phenomena_2H_2012/Sandvine_Global_Internet_P
henomena_Report_2H_2012.pdf
The Equivalent of 31 Billion Movies in 2012 
   Growing to 77 Billion Movies in 2016
   Data cut and paste from Cisco on Dec 6, 
   2012 clearly shows BitTorrent
   increasing from 8 Exabytes
   a month in 2012 to 19 Exabytes a 
   month in 2016.
   In the US in 2012, that is the 
   equivalent of 31
   billion movies being illegally 
   consumed.  In 2016, 
   that is the equivalent of 77 billion 
   movies being 
   illegally consumed.
    It is not all movies.  It is music, video 
    games, software, apps, TV shows and 
    ebooks.  About 30% is movies in 2012 in 
    the US.  That is 11 billion movies.                                                       Growth of p2p Filesharing
                                                                                            (mostly BitTorrent) – Dec 6 2012
 (2) http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps
Why Do Many People Say BitTortrent Is 
             Decreasing?
“In absolute traffic level, BitTorrent has risen in 
volume by over 40%, but the application 
continues to exhibit a steady downward trend in 
overall traffic share, declining to 10.31% of total 
peak traffic from being 11.30% a half a 
year ago.  As the most popular Filesharing
application, BitTorrent’s decline has had a major 
influence on the decline of the Filesharing
(formerly P2P Filesharing) traffic category, which 
since 2010 has seen its traffic share decline from 
19.2% to 12.0% of peak period aggregate traffic.” 
– Sandvine Nov 2012

 Overall internet traffic grows 120% a year.  If 
 BitTorrent “declined” to 10.3% of total traffic 
 from 11.3% in a year that total traffic went up 
 120% ‐ THAT IS AN INCREASE IN TRAFFIC.
 (2) http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps
Misleading – P2P Piracy Has Never 
           Decreased
Just Plain False ‐ P2P Piracy Has Never 
               Decreased
P2P Piracy Has Never Decreased
             9,000

Petabytes
             8,000
Per 
Month
             7,000


             6,000


             5,000


             4,000


             3,000


             2,000


             1,000


                ‐
                     2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012




                              Global P2P Data Traffic in Petabytes Per Month
Misleading – US Home Video Down 26%
US Home Video Down 26%
                                   US Home Video Revenue – BluRay, DVD, PPV, Digital 
                                        & Streaming decreased 26% since 2006.

                              Home Video                                                                                P2P Movie 
                            Revenue (Billions)                                                                          Downloads 
                                                                                                                         (Billions)
                                     $30.0

                                     $25.0
                                                                                                                               10
                                     $20.0
                                                                                                                               8
                                     $15.0
                                                                                                                               6
                                     $10.0
                                                                                                                               4
                                       $5.0
                                                                                                                               2
                                         $‐
                                                                2006                                 2011

                                                    ~1.4B P2P Movie                                        ~11B P2P Movie 
                                                       Downloads                                             Downloads
[1] December 2008 Futuresource http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high-definition-smackdown/117934-futuresource-consulting-blu-ray-top-50-sales-2014-od-still-33b-72-share.html
[2] http://www.isuppli.com/Media-Research/News/Pages/Network-Delivery-of-Video-Fails-to-Live-Up-to-Hype-in-2010.aspx
(3) http://www.musicweek.com/news/read/bittorrent-traffic-increases-40-in-north-america/052461                                                                              11
(4) http://www.sandvine.com/news/global_broadband_trends.asp
Copyright Is Under Attack
•   There is a well coordinated and financed campaign to weaken copyright 
    and distribute misinformation in the press, in academia and in the courts.

                      Lobbies governments around the world that copyright is a 
                      barrier to innovation. Funded by Soros. 


                      Funded by Google execs’ families.  Files amicus briefs to 
                      weaken the cases of rights holders who enforce.

                      “User’s rights” group funded by Soros.  
                      Lobbies governments that the Internet is 
                      a human right and suspending service for 
                      copyright violations is a violation of 
                      human rights.
Fast Internet vs. Music Revenues
                                                                                  High‐Speed Internet Users (US) 
The decline of recorded music 
                                                                                           (millions) (1)
revenues also corresponds with the 
                                                               90
increase in access to broadband                                80
internet connections.                                          70
                                                               60
                                                               50
                                                               40
                                                               30
                                                               20
                                                               10
                                                                ‐
                                                                           2001   2002   2003      2004     2005    2006    2007   2008   2009

                                                              Worldwide Recorded Music Revenues (Billions) 
                                                                             CD and Digital
                                                                 $30.0

                                                                 $25.0

                                                                 $20.0

                                                                 $15.0

                                                                 $10.0

  (1) http://ethicalfan.com/2012/04/i‐drink‐your‐milkshake/          $5.0

                                                                      $‐
                                                                              2001   2002   2003     2004    2005    2006   2007   2008   2009
Fast Internet vs. Newspaper Revenues
                                                                                                High‐Speed Internet Users (US) 
Newspaper revenue decline also                                                                           (millions) (1)
follows the rise of broadband users.                                                90
                                                                                    80
                                                                                    70
                                                                                    60
                                                                                    50
                                                                                    40
                                                                                    30
                                                                                    20
                                                                                    10
                                                                                     ‐
                                                                                         2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009




  http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/newspaper‐ad‐revenues‐fall‐to‐50‐year.html
Music Revenues vs Google Revenues
                                                                                   Worldwide Recorded Music Revenues (Billions) 
Music revenue decline also                                                                        CD and Digital
follows the rise of Google’s revenues.                                               $30.0

                                                                                     $25.0

The main way that people find pirate                                                 $20.0

media is on pages that have ads                                                      $15.0

served by internet ad networks.                                                      $10.0

Google has 60% worldwide market                                                       $5.0

share in these ad networks.                                                            $‐
                                                                                             2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009


Weak copyright fuels Google’s 
business model.




  http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/newspaper‐ad‐revenues‐fall‐to‐50‐year.html
Weak copyright 
fuels the Telecom 
business model.




   US Home Video Revenue Including Streaming, PPV & VOD
         30.0

         25.0

         20.0
                                                          [1] December 2008 Futuresource http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high-
         15.0                                             definition-smackdown/117934-futuresource-consulting-blu-ray-top-50-sales-
                                                          2014-od-still-33b-72-share.html
         10.0                                             [2] http://www.isuppli.com/Media-Research/News/Pages/Network-Delivery-
                                                          of-Video-Fails-to-Live-Up-to-Hype-in-2010.aspx
                                                          (3) http://www.musicweek.com/news/read/bittorrent-traffic-increases-40-in-
          5.0
                                                          north-america/052461
                                                          (4) http://mashable.com/2011/09/22/consumer-trends-home-video/
           ‐
                2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011                                                                       16
Google Revenue vs. Newspaper Revenues
Newpaper revenue decline also
follows the rise of Google’s revenues.

Overall advertising revenue has not 
grown so much as Google intercepts 
those ad dollars from other people’s 
content.

Google who makes $14B a year in 
profit pays NO royalties on any image 
on Google’s image search.  They have 
manipulated the courts into 
weakening copyright.

Google who makes $14B a year in 
profit paid no royalties on any video 
on Youtube prior to 2010/2011.


http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/newspaper‐ad‐revenues‐fall‐to‐50‐year.html

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Piracy is Increasing at a Phenomenal Rate

  • 1. Piracy Is Increasing At A  Phenomenal Rate December 6, 2012
  • 2. Cisco Forecasts P2P Filesharing Will Grow  250% from 2012 to 2016 ‐ Dec 6 2012 http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps,
  • 3. BitTorrent Traffic Grew 40% in the US  from 2011 to 2012 – Nov 8, 2012 http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps,
  • 4. BitTorrent Traffic Grew 40% in the US  from 2011 to 2012 – Nov 7 2012 http://www.sandvine.com/downloads/documents/Phenomena_2H_2012/Sandvine_Global_Internet_P henomena_Report_2H_2012.pdf
  • 5. The Equivalent of 31 Billion Movies in 2012  Growing to 77 Billion Movies in 2016 Data cut and paste from Cisco on Dec 6,  2012 clearly shows BitTorrent increasing from 8 Exabytes a month in 2012 to 19 Exabytes a  month in 2016. In the US in 2012, that is the  equivalent of 31 billion movies being illegally  consumed.  In 2016,  that is the equivalent of 77 billion  movies being  illegally consumed. It is not all movies.  It is music, video  games, software, apps, TV shows and  ebooks.  About 30% is movies in 2012 in  the US.  That is 11 billion movies. Growth of p2p Filesharing (mostly BitTorrent) – Dec 6 2012 (2) http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps
  • 6. Why Do Many People Say BitTortrent Is  Decreasing? “In absolute traffic level, BitTorrent has risen in  volume by over 40%, but the application  continues to exhibit a steady downward trend in  overall traffic share, declining to 10.31% of total  peak traffic from being 11.30% a half a  year ago.  As the most popular Filesharing application, BitTorrent’s decline has had a major  influence on the decline of the Filesharing (formerly P2P Filesharing) traffic category, which  since 2010 has seen its traffic share decline from  19.2% to 12.0% of peak period aggregate traffic.”  – Sandvine Nov 2012 Overall internet traffic grows 120% a year.  If  BitTorrent “declined” to 10.3% of total traffic  from 11.3% in a year that total traffic went up  120% ‐ THAT IS AN INCREASE IN TRAFFIC. (2) http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html#~apps
  • 9. P2P Piracy Has Never Decreased  9,000 Petabytes  8,000 Per  Month  7,000  6,000  5,000  4,000  3,000  2,000  1,000  ‐ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global P2P Data Traffic in Petabytes Per Month
  • 11. US Home Video Down 26% US Home Video Revenue – BluRay, DVD, PPV, Digital  & Streaming decreased 26% since 2006. Home Video P2P Movie  Revenue (Billions) Downloads  (Billions)  $30.0  $25.0 10  $20.0 8  $15.0 6  $10.0 4  $5.0 2  $‐ 2006 2011 ~1.4B P2P Movie  ~11B P2P Movie  Downloads Downloads [1] December 2008 Futuresource http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high-definition-smackdown/117934-futuresource-consulting-blu-ray-top-50-sales-2014-od-still-33b-72-share.html [2] http://www.isuppli.com/Media-Research/News/Pages/Network-Delivery-of-Video-Fails-to-Live-Up-to-Hype-in-2010.aspx (3) http://www.musicweek.com/news/read/bittorrent-traffic-increases-40-in-north-america/052461 11 (4) http://www.sandvine.com/news/global_broadband_trends.asp
  • 12. Copyright Is Under Attack • There is a well coordinated and financed campaign to weaken copyright  and distribute misinformation in the press, in academia and in the courts. Lobbies governments around the world that copyright is a  barrier to innovation. Funded by Soros.  Funded by Google execs’ families.  Files amicus briefs to  weaken the cases of rights holders who enforce. “User’s rights” group funded by Soros.   Lobbies governments that the Internet is  a human right and suspending service for  copyright violations is a violation of  human rights.
  • 13. Fast Internet vs. Music Revenues High‐Speed Internet Users (US)  The decline of recorded music  (millions) (1) revenues also corresponds with the   90 increase in access to broadband   80 internet connections.  70  60  50  40  30  20  10  ‐ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Worldwide Recorded Music Revenues (Billions)  CD and Digital  $30.0  $25.0  $20.0  $15.0  $10.0 (1) http://ethicalfan.com/2012/04/i‐drink‐your‐milkshake/  $5.0  $‐ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  • 14. Fast Internet vs. Newspaper Revenues High‐Speed Internet Users (US)  Newspaper revenue decline also (millions) (1) follows the rise of broadband users.  90  80  70  60  50  40  30  20  10  ‐ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/newspaper‐ad‐revenues‐fall‐to‐50‐year.html
  • 15. Music Revenues vs Google Revenues Worldwide Recorded Music Revenues (Billions)  Music revenue decline also CD and Digital follows the rise of Google’s revenues.  $30.0  $25.0 The main way that people find pirate   $20.0 media is on pages that have ads   $15.0 served by internet ad networks.    $10.0 Google has 60% worldwide market   $5.0 share in these ad networks.  $‐ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Weak copyright fuels Google’s  business model. http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/newspaper‐ad‐revenues‐fall‐to‐50‐year.html
  • 16. Weak copyright  fuels the Telecom  business model. US Home Video Revenue Including Streaming, PPV & VOD  30.0  25.0  20.0 [1] December 2008 Futuresource http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high-  15.0 definition-smackdown/117934-futuresource-consulting-blu-ray-top-50-sales- 2014-od-still-33b-72-share.html  10.0 [2] http://www.isuppli.com/Media-Research/News/Pages/Network-Delivery- of-Video-Fails-to-Live-Up-to-Hype-in-2010.aspx (3) http://www.musicweek.com/news/read/bittorrent-traffic-increases-40-in-  5.0 north-america/052461 (4) http://mashable.com/2011/09/22/consumer-trends-home-video/  ‐ 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 16