New Industrial Revolution and Innovation Opportunities
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The document discusses how digital technologies are disrupting traditional industries and business models, enabling new platform-based businesses that leverage network effects through open ecosystems. Emerging technologies like AI, blockchain, and 3D printing are changing the nature of work, education, transportation, and trust in society. Platform companies are gaining competitive advantages by analyzing large datasets and using technologies to match needs between producers and consumers.
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New Industrial Revolution and Innovation Opportunities
- 2. Halloween in Nashville, 1974 2016
- 3. If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.... -Jack Welch
- 4. Digital is the main reason just over half the Fortune 500 companies have disappeared since the year 2000. -Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016 Yet..Digital disruption has only just begun.
- 5. Digital penetration has only just begun http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/the-case-for-digital-reinvention#0
- 6. Digitalization pressures revenue and profit growth http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/the-case-for-digital-reinvention#0
- 7. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future. What we don’t know we don’t know Most of what we need to know to make good decisions today is outside our comprehension: We don’t even know it’s there. What we know What we know we don’t know
- 8. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
- 9. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
- 10. “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
- 11. 2015
- 12. Pepper and Nico in Japan February 2017
- 16. • What technologies are used? • What basic assumptions are broken? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-rEI4bezWc
- 18. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Knowledge via MOOCs • Sharing not owning • Sustainability • Gigs and not jobs Technology • Broadband • Smart phones • Cloud • Internet of Things • Big Data • 3D printing • Robotics/AI • VR/AR • Holography Open Source IP • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P • Cryptocurrencies • Blockchains • Mobile money/payments • M2M payments
- 20. Technology replacing Energy and Banking http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/
- 21. The commodification of banking At its height back in 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters employed 600 traders, buying and selling stock on the orders of the investment bank’s large clients. Today there are just two equity traders left. http://www.nanalyze.com/2017/02/artificial-intelligence-investment-banking/
- 22. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP BMW 1916 122,000 $56B UBER 2009 7,000 $62B MARRIOTT 1927 200,000 $32B AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $21B WALT DISNEY 1923 185,000 $172B FACEBOOK 2004 15,000 $369B WALMART 1962 2,300,000 $206B ALIBABA 1999 36,000 $241B Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, and updated January 2017 Something fundamental is changing
- 23. Pipeline – Traditional linear value chain Ownership of resources
- 24. Platform-based business models Access to resources
- 25. Platforms leverage Network Effects Value rises as more people use the platform
- 26. The New Multinationals CGE Platform Database with Quid visualization, 2015 Over $3 trillion in firm market cap Selected Platform Companies Emerging platform clusters 2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary – licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0).
- 27. “We want to help small businesses grow by solving their problems.” - Founder & CEO Jack Ma Expanding industry boundaries “to build the future infrastructure of commerce”
- 28. Alibaba Group – “Doing more with less”
- 29. PLATFORM CONSUM ERS PRODUCE RS Ecosystem Leadership Ensure central position within ecosystem Develop deep understanding of users on both sides Define value co-creation opportunities Leverage resources in the ecosystem Create attractiveness through cultivating trust Leveraging network principles 1. Enable interactions across all “boundaries”5. Scale through operational excellence 4. Create agility through control over and access to resources, not ownership 3. Expand industry boundaries through providing holistic solutions 2. Analyze data from multiple sources Teigland 2017
- 30. Pipeline BMs vs Platform BMs Seller of products and/or services SMACIT to make linear process efficient Manager of firm with distinct boundaries First mover advantage Ownership of resources Supply-side economies of scale Destination for solving customer needs SMACIT to co-create value Leader of ecosystem with fuzzy boundaries First to scale advantage Access to resources Demand-side economies of scale (network effects) PLATFORM CONSUMERSPRODUCERS Elements of value exchange Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne 2016
- 31. Omnichannel Business -”Life events” -Own customer relationship -Multiproduct, multichannel -Integrated value chain e.g., ING, Schindler Supplier -Products/services -Sell through another -Low-cost producer -Incremental innovation e.g., Sony Ecosystem Driver -One stop destination -Branded platform -Great customer experience -3rd party plug’n plays -Matchmaker e.g., Amazon, John Deere Modular Producer -Ecosystem plug’n play -Niche plug’n play -Adapt to ecosystems -Continuous innovation e.g., Paypal MIT study: Four incumbent digital business models Weill & Woerner 2015 Needs Life Events Demographics Purchase history Control over decisions on brand, price, quality, etc. * 32% Higher growth * 27% Higher profit margin
- 32. Digitalization of John Deere From product focus to farm equipment platform providers to product system integrators Integration of machinery, irrigation systems, soil and nutrient sources, weather info, crop prices,… Business model Products Moving from… to… Solutions Sales Services
- 33. Farm equipment seller to Farm equipment omnichannel to Full service solutions ecosystem driver - Analytics of data from machinery, irrigation systems, soil and nutrient sources, weather info, crop prices, etc. - Platform access by suppliers, consultants, food processors, food retailers, etc. - APIs enabling customization through third-party development
- 34. With IoT… Asset Performance Management (APM) helps reduce downtime and production costs of machinery, tools, etc through predictive analytics. Operations Optimization (OO) helps drive better overall performance through e.g., scheduling. Business Optimization (BO) helps develop insights needed to identify and improve overall customer value. Cybersecurity of operational technology infrastructure and assets. http://www.ge.com/digital/press-releases/digital-transformation-energy-accelerating-ge-digital-plans-power-industry
- 35. By 2020 there will be 5Xs as many connected devices as connected people
- 36. By 2018, IDC predicts that >50% of large enterprises, and >80% of digital transformation leaders, will create and/or partner with industry cloud platforms. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS40552015
- 37. Betting on “The winner takes all” Immelt’s goal: “A top 10 software company” by 2020 • Predix: USD 1 bln investment • Open-source model, e.g., Android • 19,000 developers + 3rd party developers • Software building blocks (e.g., blockchain)
- 38. Many new industry data platforms are emerging https://www.siemens.com/press/pool/de/events/2016/corporate/2016-09-industry-analyst-conference/presentation-kayser.pdf
- 39. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
- 40. • Launched June 2010 • >500 cities in >65 countries • Limited physical assets • USD 62.5 bln valuation (Ericsson – USD 20 bln; Ford – USD 50 bln; GM USD 56 bln) “Doing more with less” through a global platform
- 43. What if we share instead? http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption
- 45. New products due to Sharing Economy http://www.the-digital-insurer.com/dia/axas-digital-initiatives/
- 47. It’s much easier to add a new service to a community than it is to build a community around a service.
- 50. No one owns everything, Everyone owns something, all resources reside in networks. Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs Access, not ownership
- 51. A system that activates the untapped value of all kinds of assets through models and marketplaces that enable greater efficiency and access. - Botsman The Sharing Economy Harvard Business Review, 2014 The Sharing Economy: Embracing Change with Caution http://www.slideshare.net/eteigland/sharing-economy-webb
- 52. Sharing Economy leverages network effects One-time interactions between strangers through central platforms
- 53. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
- 54. Sharing Economy: USD 255 to USD 670 billion PricewaterhouseCoopers Consumer Intelligence Series: The Sharing Economy (2015).
- 55. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
- 56. Banking is essential, but banks are not. Bill Gates
- 57. From the north of Sweden
- 58. FinTech startups taking traditional bank territory Inspiration from CB Insights, SEB base webpage slightly modified to make more room
- 63. Crowd equity financing enabling new entrants
- 64. Elio Motors becoming a reality https://www.eliomotors.com/
- 65. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf “…an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.”
- 66. Institutions EmergentCollective VS E.g., Central Bank ~ Long-standing financial institutions and regulations E.g., Bitcoin Community ~ Emergent collective of users across globe connected through internet Teigland, Yetis, Larsson 2013
- 67. Bitcoin – one of 100s of cryptocurrencies http://coinmarketcap.com/
- 68. - Andreas Antonopolous Saying that Bitcoin is a currency is like saying that the Internet is email. Currency is just the first app! http://startusingbitcoin.com/blog/1-what-is-bitcoin/
- 69. Blockchain technology Digitalizing trust with no central actor other than a computer network ?
- 73. Enabling smart contracts? Weather data algorithm Insurance claim payout
- 74. Smart cities and microgrids Brooklyn Microgrid aims to create a local, neighborhood- powered grid that could operate in parallel to the main grid. One of the appeals of a microgrid is its potential to provide electricity to homes even if the main grid goes down. -NPR
- 75. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
- 76. Community platform Hierarchicalfirm VS E.g., Ford ~ Created by employees within organizational boundaries E.g., Local Motors ~ Created by community collaborators regardless of affiliation Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012 The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
- 77. “Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.” • 100xs lower capital cost • 5xs faster production
- 79. “Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.” • 100xs less capital cost • 5xs faster production
- 81. Local Motors to print 3D cars in its micro-factories
- 82. Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle with IBM Watson https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-serial-production-ollie-3d-printed-smart-vehicles/
- 83. Local and mobile factories Integrating offline and online communities Arizona Maryland Tennessee Germany
- 84. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
- 85. Knowledge through MOOCs (Massively Open Online Courses)
- 86. Continuous professional development at AT&T “There is a need to retool yourself, and you should not expect to stop. People who do not spend five to 10 hours a week in online learning will obsolete themselves with the technology.” - Randall Stephenson, CEO and Chairman of AT&T
- 87. Interpersonal trust Institutional trust - brand Institutional trust - platform 1rst 2nd 3rd Changing nature of trust
- 88. Technologies enabling sharing economy interactions among strangers AI/Big data – Predicting/prescribing transactions Biometrics – Identification in transactions Robots/automation – Conducting transactions 3D printing – Localizing transactions Blockchain – Financing and securing transactions
- 90. AI enables “work looking for people” on odesk & Elance
- 91. Online courses using face recognition
- 93. Super smart robots: By 2050 est’d 4 bln more than humans R2R payments Robot tasks
- 94. Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle with IBM Watson https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-serial-production-ollie-3d-printed-smart-vehicles/
- 96. Crowdfunding of revenue generating machines (IoT assets) with blockchain technology https://mybit.io/
- 97. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
- 100. 70 emp 350+ Partners 43,900+ Community members 15,000+ Customers in 130 countries • Content management software, #1 in media industry • 250,000 sites in 170 countries • Customers: UN, FT, WSJ, Vogue, Hitachi, 3M, BMW • 105 employees in 9 countries (US, Europe & Asia) Teigland et al., 2014 forthcoming
- 101. eZ’s platform for building identity and competence throughout its ecosystem eZ Software development team
- 102. From offices to…
- 103. Trading one job for a number of “gigs”…
- 106. “Third Places” and co-working spaces
- 107. Sharing economy for workspace? http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35246320
- 108. Hoffices – a Swedish concept gone global
- 111. New forms of organizing
- 112. Increasing forces for local community and circular economies
- 113. Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague
- 114. A 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat Knowledge: RepRap community E-commerce: Aliexpress
- 115. My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!
- 116. Global DIY microfactory networks enable circular economies
- 117. Makerspaces in Tokyo
- 118. Local and mobile factories Integrating offline and online communities Arizona Washington DC Tennessee Germany
- 119. What’s already here? 24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/ $60,000 $150 Available for free download on $45 Where is the firm? $5
- 121. Let’s innovate! 121
- 122. Platform-based business models Interactions between strangers
- 123. Technologies enabling sharing economy interactions AI/Big data – Predicting/prescribing transactions Biometrics – Identification in transactions Robots/automation – Conducting transactions 3D printing – Localizing transactions Blockchain – Financing and securing transactions
- 124. No one owns everything, Everyone owns something, all resources reside in networks. Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs Access, not ownership
- 125. Design thinking turns needs into demand 125 IDEO
- 126. 126
- 128. DESIGN THINKING ”DOUBLE DIAMOND” MODEL Initial challenge Problem nailed! Solution nailed Problem diamond Solution diamond Painstorming Deep user research: • Immerse • Observe • Ask Mind map Develop insights Frame opportunity with HMW Brainstorming Combinatorial play Experiment • Prototype • Test Surface assumptions Design the right things Design things right
- 129. • OBSERVE users and their behaviors in context of their lives. • ENGAGE with people in conversations and interviews. Ask why, why, why. • WATCH AND LISTEN: ask someone to complete a task and tell you what they are doing. • IMMERSE yourself to better understand the user experience EMPATHIZE: TO GAIN A DEEP UNDERSTANDING OF EXPERIENCE, SITUATION, AND EMOTION OF YOUR USERS
- 131. • Idea generation occurs in scheduled face-to-face group meetings GROUP BRAINSTORMING: PRINCIPLES • A moderator: 1. Say all ideas that come to your mind (no matter how wild) 2. Quantity is more important than quality 3. Do not criticize 4. Combine and build on other ideas (piggybacking) o Records ideas on flip-charts/post-its o Keeps the group task-oriented o Reflects the ideas back to group to stimulate further discussion o Suggests new views to the problem when idea generation slows down • Four rules of brainstorming
- 132. Future-Back Innovation Exercise Project yourself 10 years forward and imagine that it is 2027. − Your table team is now the Innovation Team at Skatteverket. − Your task is to develop a new product or service based on a disruptive technology for one of Skatteverket’s business areas. − In addition, you are to choose a company within your assigned industry with which to collaborate in the development and delivery of this product or service. For example, if you have the transportation industry, then you may choose Tesla or SL as the company. Prepare max 2 min ppt presentation described on handout Tip: Learn first about the technology by searching for results from within past year.
- 135. • Automation • Globalization • Rising productivity of select few -Ryan Avent Increasing social responsibility An increasing abundance of labor
- 136. No one owns everything, Everyone owns something, all resources reside in networks. Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs Access, not ownership
- 137. The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed. - William Gibson Economist, 2003
- 138. The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance. -WEF schwab The Fourth Industrial Revolution https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
- 141. David W. Gandy, FASM, EPRI, 2016 Advanced manufacturing
- 143. 3D printed nose at Stora Tillväxtdagen https://twitter.com/oskarthorslund/status/788337795123318784/photo/1
- 144. Disruptions ......the likes of which the industry hasn’t seen since the automated assembly line. Automated, self-owning, service-based, fossil free http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2015/01/auto-industry-innovation.html
- 145. http://www.ehang.com/ehang184 EHang 184 MegaDrone – Worlds First Self Driving Taxi Car
- 146. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future. What we don’t know we don’t know Most of what we need to know to make good decisions today is outside our comprehension: We don’t even know it’s there. What we know What we know we don’t know
- 147. “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996 Scenario Thinking
- 148. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
- 149. Robin Teigland robin.teigland@hhs.se www.slideshare.net/eteigland @robin.teigland If you love knowledge, set it free… If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC. Thank you!!!!!