Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme: Lessons from 10 years of evaluation

1. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net
Programme: Lessons from 10 years of
evaluation
John Hoddinott
Cornell University
The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End
Hunger and Undernutrition
Addis Ababa Hilton
December 15, 2017
Addis Ababa
1

2. 2
Introduction
• Beginning in 2005, the Government of Ethiopia with support
from its development partners has implemented the
Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)
• Outside of South Africa, the PSNP is the largest social
protection program in sub-Saharan Africa

3. 3
Introduction
This presentation has three objectives:
1. Overview of the PSNP
2. Assess aspects of its performance in the first 10 years of
operation (Phases 1, 2 and 3)
3. Comment on its potential to contribute to ending hunger
and malnutrition in Ethiopia

4. 4
PSNP (2006-2015) Overview
1. Targeted geographically (food insecure woredas in the
Highlands) and targeted individually (chronically food
insecure households within these woredas)
2. Most (~85 percent) of beneficiaries undertake public works
employment building community assets. Some (~15 percent)
receive unconditional transfers called direct support.
3. Payments are in cash or in-kind but increasingly in cash

5. 5
PSNP Overview
4. Complementary programs exist to increase incomes from
agricultural and non-agricultural sources but up to 2015
these were limited in scope
5. Expanded to the Lowlands in 2010
6. Bi-annual longitudinal household surveys conducted in 2006,
2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 (covering PSNP Phases 1, 2, 3)

6. 6
Assessing PSNP performance
By its core objectives:
1. Target chronically food insecure households
2. Close the food gap
3. Prevent asset depletion
4. Build community assets of value
Additional considerations
1. Have there been adverse impacts?

7. 7
Assessing performance: Targeting
1. The PSNP uses a mix of geographic and community-
based targeting to identify chronically food insecure
households in chronically food insecure woredas.
2. Generally, targeting performance has been good in
the Highlands but poor in the Lowlands

8. 8
Targeting (Highlands):
Probability of selection into PSNP, 2006
48%
34%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very poor
Moderately poor
Well-off
Very poor: 3+ months food insecurity; 10th percentile of land and livestock holdings; widow; cannot access 100 birr in emergency
Well-off: No food insecurity; 90th percentile of land and livestock holdings
Moderately poor: 1-2 months of food insecurity; 25th percentile of land and livestock holdings; cannot access 100 birr in emergency

9. 9
Assessing performance: Trends in food gap, PSNP
beneficiaries, Highlands
3.09
2.67
3.04
2.04 1.75
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
FoodGap
Survey Year
Spike in global food prices
2009 drought
Major increase in
PSNP payments
Every 100 (inflation adjusted) birr in annual
PW payments reduces the annual food gap
by 0.2 months

10. 10
Trends in livestock holdings (TLU)
2.8
3.1
3.3 3.2
3.0
0.5
1.7
1.9
1.6 1.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
TLU
All PSNP PW hh Poorest tercile, PSNP PW hh

11. 11
Value of asset holdings
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.0
0.5
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
TLU
All PSNP PW hh Poorest tercile, PSNP PW hh
No impact on livestock
holdings of public works
participants
For poorest 20%, every 100 (inflation adjusted) birr in annual
PW payments increased TLU by 0.12

12. 12
Building public assets of value:
Percent reporting benefitting from PSNP public works, 2014
Road
construction
and
improvements
Water
harvesting
structures
Soil and
water
conservation
on
communal
land
Soil and
water
conservation
on private
land Schools
Health
posts
Tigray 73 46 53 46 58 55
Amhara 77 39 53 53 67 54
Oromia 80 50 54 47 61 55
SNNP 85 39 51 43 64 72

13. 13
Additional considerations
• Has the PSNP “crowded out” private transfers?
No evidence this has occurred
• Has the PSNP discouraged out-migration?
No evidence this has occurred for males. Some evidence that
it has reduced early marriage of girls
• Has the PSNP increased fertility?
No evidence this has occurred
• Has the PSNP reduced labor supply?
No evidence this has occurred (though data quality is poor)

14. 14
Lessons learned and looking forward
• The PSNP has been successful – in the Highlands –
in terms of its core objectives
• It has had less success in terms of increasing
agricultural and non-agricultural incomes,
improving productivity and nutritional status
• Important caveat: The PSNP was never conceived as
addressing these by itself

15. 15
Lessons learned and looking forward
• Components of PSNP 4 attempt to redress these
limitations:
• Incorporating nutrition behavior change communication
activities
• Development of complementary livelihood packages
• A resilient system for ending hunger and
undernutrition will require that these new
components are successful

16. 16
Acknowledgements
Co-authors: Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Guush Berhane, Daniel Gilligan,
Kalle Hirvonen, Neha Kumar, Jeremy Lind, Rachel Sabates-Wheeler, Mulugeta
Tefera, Yisehac Yohannes
Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency for careful work collecting these data
Funders: World Bank (for funding evaluation studies) and EU (for funding
work on this retrospective assessment)