The webinar addressed anticipated 2013 activity of North Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons and their effects on the reinsurance industry.

1. The 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane
& Typhoon Season Primer
July 16, 2013

2. Today’s Presenters
• John Mangano
– Research Scientist, Model Development Group
• Justin Brolley
– Research Scientist, Model Development Group
• Iain Willis
– Product Manager, Product Management Group
• Aarti Dinesh
– Product Manager, Product Management Group

3. Agenda
• Factors affecting Tropical Cyclone Activity
• North Atlantic Hurricane
• West Pacific Typhoon
• CatWatch™

4. Hurricane & Typhoon Activity
Long-Term Factors Influencing Atlantic
and Pacific Tropical Storm Activity

5. Global Tropical Cyclone Basins
• Average annual number of named storms by basin
Source: IBTracks
166
1127
11 6 9

6. Major Factors Influencing Atlantic and North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Activity
El Niño / La Niña – ENSO
AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation

7. ENSO - El Niño-Southern Oscillation
• WARM Phase (El Niño)
– Above average sea surface
temperatures
– Shear Impedes
development in Atlantic
– Tropical cyclones have more
time to develop in W. Pacific
Ocean
• COOL Phase (La Niña)
– Below average sea surface
temperatures
– Low shear allows for
development in Atlantic
– Tropical cyclones have less
time to develop before
landfall or re-curvature in
W. Pacific
• Cycles last roughly 2-7
years

8. ENSO: WARM PHASE (EL NIÑO) EFFECTS
Above average sea surface
temperatures in the main
development region
Storms form farther south
and east than normal
Tropical cyclones have
more time to develop
Increased vertical
wind shear inhibits
development

9. ENSO: COOL PHASE (LA NIÑA) EFFECTS
Below average sea surface
temperatures in the main
development region
Storms form farther north
and west than normal
Tropical cyclones have
less time to develop
Low vertical wind shear
promotes tropical storm
development

10. Going into the 2013 season with cool neutral phase
ENSO Phases 1950-Present
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/enso/enso.mei_index.html
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

11. Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure6.gif
El Nino
(Warm)
Neutral
La Nina
(Cool)
Latest ENSO Forecasts (June 2013)
Forecasts of sea
surface
temperature
(SST) anomalies
for the Nino 3.4
region (5°N –
5°S, 120°W –
170°W). Figure
courtesy of the
International
Research Institute
(IRI) for Climate
and Society.
Figure updated
18 June 2013.

12. AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Source of AMO Data: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

13. AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
• COOL Phase
– Cooler SSTs – less energy for
development
– Increased shear above tropical
surface easterlies
– Unfavorable environment for
hurricanes
• WARM Phase
– Warmer SSTs – more energy for
development
– Reduced shear above tropical
surface easterlies
– Favorable environment for
hurricanes
For more information, please refer to the white paper at:
http://www.eqecat.com/pdfs/north-atlantic-hurricane-model-near-term-2010-04-29.pdf

14. AMO: Affect on Tropical Cyclones
North Atlantic
Annual
Count
AMO shift to warm phase

15. Major factors influencing Atlantic and North pacific
tropical cyclone activity
• El Niño / La Niña – ENSO
– Two-Seven year cycle in sea surface temperature in the
central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean
– A cool neutral ENSO is expected persist throughout the
season.
• AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
– 70-year cycle in sea surface temperatures in the North
Atlantic Ocean
– Still in Warm Phase of Cycle (since 1995)
• PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation
– 20-30 year cycle of warmer/cooler than normal sea surface
temperatures over the North Pacific
– Currently in Cool Phase of Cycle

16. North Atlantic Hurricane
– Season forecast and prior years’ seasonal
forecast
– Factors influencing this season’s activity

17. 2012 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECASTS
Date & Forecaster Named Storm Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
5/23 NOAA 13-20 7-11 3-6
6/3 CSU 18 9 4
6/4 TSR 15.6 7.7 3.5
4/8 WSI 16 9 5
4/15 NCSU 15 8.5 4.5
1981 - 2010 Avg. 12.1 6.4 2.7
Latest Warm AMO Avg. 15.2 8.0 3.7

18. High Activity Does Not Necessarily Translate
Into More US Landfalls
NAMED ATLANTIC STORMS VS U.S. HURRICANES
Correlation: US Hurricanes with Named Storms = 0.51
with Hurricane Count = 0.54

19. Past NOAA Hurricane Season May Forecasts
Letter grades summarize HURR / MAJ forecast quality
Season Probability (%) Storm Counts
ABOVE NORMAL BELOW NAMED HURR MAJOR
2006 75 20 5 12-15 7-9 3-4
10 5 2
2007 85 10 5 13-16 7-9 3-5
15 6 2
2008 85 10 5 14-18 7-10 3-6
16 8 5
2009 25 50 25 9-14 4-7 1-3
9 3 2
2010 85 10 5 14-23 8-14 3-7
19 12 5
2011 65 25 10 12-18 6-10 3-6
19 7 3
2012 25 50 25 9-15 4-8 1-3
19 10 2
2013 13-20 7-11 3-6
3+ ? ?

20. Key Drivers Impacting Hurricane Activity
• AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
– Still in Warm Phase of Cycle (since 1995)
• El Niño / La Niña – ENSO
– A cool neutral ENSO is expected persist throughout the
season.
• Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
– Currently above average SSTs throughout most of the
basin.
• Wind Shear – Tropical Atlantic
– Currently high wind shear in Lesser Antilles and Cape
Verde and low wind shear elsewhere.
• Saharan Air Layer Outbreaks
– Dry air is currently present off Cape Verde.
– The wild card that negatively impacts forecast skill.

21. Near-Term Model Frequency – Based on Warm AMO

22. 500 mb Heights in 1950s and Recent Years
Source: NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis
1950s 2006-2012
7 Hurricane Landfalls
(NC-ME)
2 Hurricane Landfalls
(NC-ME)

23. Western North Pacific Typhoons
– Season forecast and prior years’ seasonal
forecast
– Factors influencing this season’s activity

24. 2013 Typhoon Season Forecasts
Forecaster/Date Named Typhoon Major Typhoons
Tropical Storm Risk-
7 May 2013
25.6 (±4.2) 16.0 (±3.4) 8.9 (±2.6)
Normal 27 17 9
City University, Hong Kong
– City University of Hong will not issue pre-season forecast in
2013 in order to incorporate latest research into forecasting
scheme.

25. Past TSR Typhoon Season May Forecasts
Letter grades summarize HURR / MAJ forecast quality
Season Probability (%) Storm Counts
ABOVE NORMAL BELOW Named Typhoons Major
2006 15 50 35 25-33 16-22 7-12
22 14 10
2007 36 46 18 23-31 14-20 5-11
25 16 9
2008 35 48 17 25-32 15-21 5-10
28 13 9
2009 16 46 38 24-31 15-21 7-12
23 15 7
2010 15 43 42 20-28 12-18 7-12
14 8 4
2011 20 43 37 24-32 15-21 5-10
21 10 7
2012 23 43 34 21-30 12-19 6-11
25 16 10
2013 38 42 20 21-30 13-19 6-12
6+ 2+ 1+

26. warm phase cool phase
PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• WARM Phase
– Above average SST in the tropical
Pacific
– More frequent El Niño Events
– Below average SST in the N. Pacific
– More favorable environment for
development of typhoons
• COOL Phase
– Below average SST in the tropical
Pacific
– More frequent La Niña Events
– Above average SST in the N. Pacific
– Less favorable environment for
development of typhoons
• Roughly 20-30 years in each phase with
inter-annual variation
– 1945-1975: COOL phase: 31 years
– 1976-1997: WARM phase: 33 years
– 1998-present: Recent COOL phase

27. Cool Phase Cool PhaseWarm Phase
PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation

28. PDO: Affect on Tropical Cyclones
Annual
Count
PDO shift to cool phase

29. Key Drivers Impacting Typhoon Activity
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
– 40-60 year cycle of warmer/cooler than normal sea
surface over the North Pacific
• Multi-decadal cycle
– 16-32 year cycle associated with El Niño / La Niña and
PDO
• El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
– 2-7 year cycle of warmer/cooler than normal sea surface
over tropical eastern Pacific
• Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH)
– Strength and extent of WPSH pressure system

30. CatWatch™

31. Pre-Season
• Hurricane and
Typhoon Season
Primer
During the
Season
• CatWatch Alerts
• Post disaster
Survey
• Post-event Reports
• EQECAT Briefings
Post-Season
• Season Recap
Webinar
Information & Communication
Subscribe to CatWatch Email Alerts:
www.eqecat.com/catwatch/subscribe/

32. CatWatch
• EQECAT's catastrophe event notifications compiled
before, during, and after natural catastrophes.
• Providing critical event information about spatial
distribution of damage, potential post-event effects,
and its impact on the in/reinsurance industry.
Basins Named
Storms
Hurricanes
/ Typhoons
Landfalls
Atlantic 3 0 2
E Pacific 5 4 1
W Pacific 6 2 3

33. CatWatch Team
• The CatWatch team monitors natural catastrophe activity
around the world, and issues notifications about
significant events before and after they occur.
• Emphasis is on events that impact insurance industry in
regions covered by EQECAT’s peril models.
• Offers early insights and determines the impact of the
event on your finances.
• This helps you plan accordingly for capital outlays, and
gauge possible market-wide effects.

34. www.eqecat.com/
For more information,
Contact EQECAT, Inc:
In the Americas: (201) 287-8320
In Bermuda: (201) 287-8320
In UK/Europe/Asia: +44 207 265 2030
Email : information@eqecat.com
Thank You