1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
9TH FEBRUARY 2013
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2. HEADLINES
Euro Drops Below 1.34 On
Disappointing German
Trade Balance
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Hit By
ECB FX Worry, Still
Awaiting Risk
TRADING TIPS Euro: A True EUR/USD Turn
As ECB’S Draghi
SELL EURUSD Hints At Intervention?
BELOW 1.3381 tgs
Euro Drops Below 1.34 On
1.3361/1.3341 sl Disappointing German Trade
1.3411 Balance
THE TAKEAWAY: German trade balance drops to 12.0
billion Euros in December -> The 2012 trade surplus
was the second highest on record -> Euro trading
SELL USDJPY BELOW drops slightly
92.17 tgt
92.03/91.87 SL 92.37 The German trade balance fell to a 14-month low in
December despite a drop in imports and a rise in
exports. The 12.0 billion Euro trade balance was worse
than the expected 15.0 billion surplus and lower than
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE November’s revised 16.9 billion Euro trade balance.
Exports increased by 0.3% in December, while imports
1.5764 tgt declined 1.3%, according to the Federal Statistical
Office.
1.5778/1.5792 SL
1.5744
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8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
CNY Non-
Sun
01:00 manufacturing PMI Medium 56.2 56.1
Feb 3
(JAN)
AUD TD Securities
23:30 Medium 2.5% 2.4%
Inflation (YoY) (JAN)
AUD TD Securities
23:30 Low 0.3% 0.4%
Inflation (MoM) (JAN)
JPY Monetary Base
23:50 Low 10.9% 11.8%
(YoY) (JAN)
Mon GBP Halifax House
Feb 4
Low 1.6% -0.3%
Price (3MoY) (JAN)
GBP Halifax Plc House
Prices s.a. (MoM) Low 0% 1.3%
(JAN)
NZD ANZ Commodity
00:00 Low 0.3% 1.0%
Price (JAN)
GBP Lloyds Business
00:01 Low 15 20
Barometer (JAN)
AUD ANZ Job
00:30 Advertisements (MoM) Low -0.9% -2.80%
(JAN)
AUD Building
00:30 Approvals (MoM) Low -4.4% 1.0% 3.4%
(DEC)
AUD Building
00:30 Low 9.3% 14.9% 14.1%
Approvals (YoY) (DEC)
CHF UBS Real Estate
07:00 Low 1.11 1.02
Bubble Index (4Q)
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix
09:30 Investor Confidence Medium -3.9 -1.7 -7
(FEB)
GBP Purchasing
09:30 Manager Index Medium 48.7 49.2 48.7
Construction (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Producer Price Index High 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
(YoY) (DEC)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Producer Price Index Medium -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
(MoM) (DEC)
EUR German
Chancellor Merkel and
14:45 Medium
Spanish PM Rajoy Hold
Press Conference
USD Factory Orders
15:00 Medium 2.3% 0.0%
(DEC)
NZD Average Hourly
21:45 Medium 0.4% 1.4%
Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)
NZD Labor Cost
21:45 Private Sector (QoQ) Low 0.5% 0.5%
(4Q)
NZD Private Wages ex
21:45 Low 0.5% 0.5%
Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)
9. AUD AiG Performance
22:30 Medium 43.2
of Service Index (JAN)
Tue GBP BRC Sales Like-
00:01 Low 0.3%
Feb 5 For-Like YoY (JAN)
AUD House Price Index
00:30 Medium 0.3% 0.3%
(QoQ) (4Q)
AUD House Price Index
00:30 Medium 0.9% 0.3%
(YoY) (4Q)
AUD Trade Balance
00:30 (Australian dollar) Medium -800M -2637M
(DEC)
CNY HSBC Services
01:45 Medium 51.7
PMI (JAN)
AUD Reserve Bank of
03:30 Australia Rate Decision High 3.00% 3.00%
(FEB 5)
CHF Trade Balance
07:00 Medium 2.00B 2.90B
(Swiss franc) (DEC)
CHF Exports (MoM)
07:00 Low 6.0%
(DEC)
CHF Imports (MoM)
07:00 Low 0.2%
(DEC)
EUR Italian Purchasing
08:45 Manager Index Medium 45.8 45.6
Services (JAN)
EUR French
08:50 Purchasing Manager Medium 43.6 43.6
Index Services (JAN F)
GBP Purchasing
09:30 Manager Index Medium 49.5 48.9
Services (JAN)
GBP Official Reserves
09:30 Low -$350M
(Changes) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
10:00 High -1.4% -2.6%
Sales (YoY) (DEC)
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
10:00 Medium -0.5% 0.1%
Sales (MoM) (DEC)
USD ISM Non-
15:00 Manufacutring Medium 55.0 55.7
Composite (JAN)
USD IBD/TIPP
15:00 Economic Optimism Low 46.5 46.5
(FEB)
GBP New Car
Wed
Registrations (YoY) Low 3.7%
Feb 6
(JAN)
GBP BRC Shop Price
00:01 Low 1.5%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
AUD Retail Sales Ex
00:30 Medium 0.3% -0.1%
Inflation(QoQ) (4Q)
AUD Retail Sales s.a.
00:30 Medium 0.3% -0.1%
(MoM) (DEC)
10. JPY BOJ Board
01:30 Low
Member Sato Speech
EUR German Factory
11:00 Orders n.s.a. (YoY) Medium -1.2% -1.0%
(DEC)
EUR German Factory
11:00 Orders s.a. (MoM) Low 0.7% -1.8%
(DEC)
USD MBA Mortgage
12:00 Low -8.1%
Applications (FEB 1)
CAD Ivey Purchasing
15:00 Managers Index SA Medium 53.8 52.8
(JAN)
USD DOE Cushing OK
15:30 Crude Inventory (FEB Low 284K
1)
USD DOE U.S. Crude
15:30 Low 5947K
Oil Inventories (FEB 1)
USD DOE U.S.
15:30 Distillate Inventory Low -2315K
(FEB 1)
USD DOE U.S.
15:30 Gasoline Inventories Low -956K
(FEB 1)
NZD Employment
21:45 Medium -0.4%
Change (QoQ) (4Q)
NZD Employment
21:45 Medium 0.0%
Change (YoY) (4Q)
NZD Unemployment
21:45 Medium 7.3%
Rate (4Q)
NZD Participation Rate
21:45 Low 68.4%
(QoQ) (4Q)
AUD AiG Performance
22:30 of Construction Index Medium 38.8
(JAN)
JPY Machine Orders
23:50 Medium -0.9% 3.9%
(MoM) (DEC)
JPY Machine Orders
23:50 Medium -4.0% 0.3%
(YoY) (DEC)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low -¥228.8B
(FEB 1)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low ¥248.6B
(FEB 1)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low ¥663.1B
(FEB 1)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low -¥254.1B
(FEB 1)
JPY Official Reserve
23:50 Low $1268.1B
Assets (JAN)
EUR German
Thu
Wholesale Price Index Low 0.0%
Feb 7
(MoM) (JAN)
11. EUR German
Wholesale Price Index Low 3.2%
(YoY) (JAN)
AUD Employment
00:30 High 6.0K -5.5K
Change (JAN)
AUD Unemployment
00:30 High 5.5% 5.4%
Rate (JAN)
AUD Full Time
00:30 Employment Change Medium -13.8K
(JAN)
AUD NAB Business
00:30 Medium -2
Confidence (4Q)
AUD Part Time
00:30 Employment Change Medium 8.3K
(JAN)
AUD Participation Rate
00:30 Low 65.1% 65.1%
(JAN)
JPY Leading Index
05:00 Medium 93.6 92.1
(DEC P)
JPY Coincident Index
05:00 Low 92.6 90.2
(DEC P)
AUD Foreign Reserves
05:30 (Australian dollar) Low A$47.3B
(JAN)
CHF SECO Consumer
06:45 Medium -12 -17
Confidence (JAN)
EUR French Trade
07:45 Low -4200M -4334M
Balance (euros) (DEC)
CHF Foreign Currency
08:00 Low 428.5B 427.2B
Reserves (JAN)
GBP Industrial
09:30 Production (YoY) Medium -2.2% -2.4%
(DEC)
GBP Manufacturing
09:30 Production (YoY) Medium -2.6% -2.1%
(DEC)
GBP Visible Trade
09:30 Balance (Pounds) Medium -£9000 -£9164
(DEC)
GBP Industrial
09:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.7% 0.3%
(DEC)
GBP Manufacturing
09:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.6% -0.3%
(DEC)
GBP Total Trade
09:30 Balance (Pounds) Low -£3300 -£3466
(DEC)
GBP Trade Balance
09:30 Non EU (Pounds) Low -£4300 -£4519
(DEC)
EUR European
Commission Releases
10:00 Medium
Economic Growth
Forecasts (Table)
12. EUR German Industrial
11:00 Production n.s.a. and Medium -0.5% -2.9%
w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
EUR German Industrial
11:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low 0.2% 0.2%
(DEC)
GBP BOE Asset
12:00 High 375B 375B
Purchase Target (FEB)
GBP Bank of England
12:00 High 0.5% 0.50%
Rate Decision (FEB 7)
EUR European Central
12:45 Bank Rate Decision High 0.75% 0.75%
(FEB 7)
EUR ECB Deposit
12:45 Low 0.0% 0.00%
Facility Rate (FEB 7)
CAD New Housing
13:30 Price Index (YoY) Medium 2.2%
(DEC)
USD Initial Jobless
13:30 Medium 360K 368K
Claims (FEB 3)
CAD Building Permits
13:30 Low -17.9%
(MoM) (DEC)
CAD New Housing
13:30 Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% 0.1%
(DEC)
USD Continuing Claims
13:30 Low 3187K 3197K
(JAN 27)
USD Non-Farm
13:30 Low -1.0% 2.9%
Productivity (4Q P)
USD Unit Labor Costs
13:30 Low 3.0% -1.9%
(4Q P)
GBP NIESR Gross
15:00 Domestic Product Medium -0.3%
Estimate (JAN)
USD EIA Natural Gas
15:30 Storage Change (FEB Low -194
1)
USD Consumer Credit
20:00 Medium $14.500B $16.045B
(DEC)
JPY Trade Balance -
23:50 BOP Basis (Yen) Medium -¥560.3B -¥847.5B
(DEC)
JPY Adjusted Current
23:50 Account Total (Yen) Low ¥235.8B ¥225.9B
(DEC)
JPY Bank Lending
23:50 Low 1.4%
Banks ex-Trust (JAN)
JPY Bank Lending incl
23:50 Low 1.2%
Trusts (YoY) (JAN)
JPY Current Account
23:50 Low -154.3% -276.4%
Balance (YoY) (DEC)
JPY Current Account
23:50 Low -¥141.1B -¥222.4B
Total (Yen) (DEC)
13. JPY Housing Loans
23:50 Low 3.0%
(YoY) (4Q)
Fri CNY Exports (YoY)
Medium 17.1% 14.1%
Feb 8 (JAN)
CNY Imports (YoY)
Medium 23.5% 6.0%
(JAN)
CNY Trade Balance Medium $24.20B $31.62B
(USD) (JAN)
JPY Bankruptcies
04:30 Medium -13.8%
(YoY) (JAN)
JPY Eco Watchers
05:00 Medium 48 45.8
Survey: Current (JAN)
JPY Eco Watchers
05:00 Medium 51
Survey: Outlook (JAN)
CNY Consumer Price
05:30 High 2.1% 2.5%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
CNY Producer Price
05:30 Medium -1.6% -1.9%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
CHF Unemployment
06:45 Medium 3.4% 3.3%
Rate (JAN)
CHF Unemployment
06:45 Medium 3.1% 3.0%
Rate s.a. (JAN)
EUR German Trade
07:00 Medium 15.0B 17.0B
Balance (euros) (DEC)
EUR German Current
07:00 Low 17.0B 15.3B
Account (euros) (DEC)
EUR German Exports
07:00 Low 1.4% -3.4%
s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
EUR German Imports
07:00 Low 1.6% -3.7%
s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
EUR Bank of France
07:30 Business Sentiment Medium 95
(JAN)
EUR French Central
07:45 Government Balance Low -103.4B
(euros) (DEC)
CHF Retail Sales
08:15 Medium 2.9%
(Real) (YoY) (DEC)
EUR Italian Industrial
09:00 Production n.s.a. (YoY) Low -7.6%
(DEC)
EUR Italian Industrial
09:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low 0.2% -1.0%
(DEC)
EUR Italian Industrial
09:00 Production w.d.a. (YoY) Low -7.6%
(DEC)
CAD Housing Starts
13:15 Medium 195.0K 198.0K
(JAN)
CAD Net Change in
13:30 High 4.0K 39.8K
Employment (JAN)
14. CAD Unemployment
13:30 High 7.2% 7.1%
Rate (JAN)
CAD Full Time
13:30 Employment Change Medium 41.2
(JAN)
CAD Part Time
13:30 Employment Change Medium -1.4
(JAN)
CAD Participation Rate
13:30 Medium 66.8
(JAN)
USD Trade Balance
13:30 Medium -$46.0B -$48.7B
(DEC)
CAD International
Merchandise Trade
13:30 Low -1.50B -1.96B
(Canadian dollar)
(DEC)
USD Wholesale
15:00 Low 0.4% 0.6%
Inventories (DEC)
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