Renewable in Europe

E R E F
European Renewable Energies Federation
Renewables in Europe:
Where we are and where we are heading
Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, EREF-President
Budapest – March 27, 2014
Amstad Global's Project Finance in Renewable Energy

E R E F
2
 Federation of associations from EU Member
States, working in the sector of energy
produced from renewable sources
 Voice of Independent Producers of Energy
from Renewables
 Promoting non-discriminatory access to the
energy market
About EREF

E R E F
Status: Today

E R E F
4
•Renewables are reliable technologies against Climate
Change
 RES are (nearly) carbon free or carbon neutral
•Provide significant contribution to Security of Energy Supply
 Wide range of RE technologies are proven and mature
 A mix of different technologies and resources is available
•Renewables reduce Dependency on Energy Imports
 RES are domestic energy sources
•Renewables mitigate the risks of Price Volatility of Fossil
Fuels
 RE-technologies have high cost decreases
 Wind, solar and geothermal energy are free
Renewable Energies are mature ...

E R E F
Moving towards 2020

E R E F
EU on track to 20% Renewables?
6
Source: Eurostat

E R E F
RES in 2012 and 2020-targets
7
Source: Eurostat

E R E F
Progress towards 2020 RES-targets
8Source: Eurostat

E R E F
2010-2011 Growth Rates vs. AAGR
required to meet 2020 ambitions
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Transport
Electricity
Heat
overall
“Current policies being insufficient
to trigger the required renewable
energy deployment in a majority
of Member States.”
(COM 2013 175 final)
“In the heating & cooling sector
in particular, it seems
significant improvements in the
policy framework are needed.”
(COM SWD 2013 102 final)

E R E F
The 2030 challenge

E R E F
Europe is falling back
Global uptake of policies for renewables and
considerable growth outside Europe: decreasing
European share in growing global market
Lack of policy certainty in Europe (policy changes
in MS and ongoing uncertainty about post-2020)
Stable and reliable integrated climate and energy
framework for 2030 needed – including
ambitious and binding targets for GHG-emissions
reduction, energy efficiency and renewable
energy.

Growing the economy
Economic activity valued €137 billion

Replacing fossil fuel imports
 550 Mtoe by 2030 (€350 billion)
 equivalent to consumption of Belgium, Germany,
Latvia, Poland, the UK and Spain
RES technology export instead of fossil fuel imports

E R E F
Growing sector and growing industry
but crisis has an impact
 Benefits for economy and environment
but debates on cost and prices
 RED: Stable framework for solid growth
but policy changes, partly retrospective
 Milestone 2030: the missing link
but extremely unambitious CEF 2030

E R E F
The Commission’s Proposal: CEF 2030
GHG-reduction-target 2030: 40% (“domestic”)
“binding” EU-RES-target: 27% - no national
targets
“ambitious policies” for energy efficiency – no
target
 minus 600,000 jobs
 minus €258/358 billion of savings from fossil
fuel imports compared to RES 30/35%-target
Source: European Commission - Impact Assessment

E R E F
Facts: Historic and projected growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BAU Roadmap 2050 (%)
Continued 2010-2020 growth post-2020 (%)
Energy Roadmap 2050 (COM):
BAU  25% RE in 2030
Continued growth after 2020:
40% RE in 2030
Target 27% in 2030?

E R E F
CEF 2030: averting investment
Maintaining investors’ uncertainty in RE and EE
* no clear direction provided by GHG-target and RES EU-target only
Shifting towards “other low carbon” technologies
* “flexibility for member states” leads to increasing costs (for nuclear
and CCS) instead of decreasing costs (renewables and efficiency)
* weakening most promising and mature GHG-reduction technologies
Labelling: BAU = ambitious: 45% - 40% - 35% - 30% - 27%
* 21% “expected” in 2020 (but: national policy changes – incl.
retroactive)
* plus 6% in 10 years: no incentives for enabling policies
Undermining successful policies at MS-level
* binding national targets needed for policy certainty and subsidiarity
principle

E R E F
Steering in the wrong direction
CEF 2030: 27% RES
 less growth
 fewer jobs
 more import spending

E R E F
Curing the deficits  new commitment
and strong policies needed
Completing Internal Energy Market including fair
access for independent and new market players
Enhancing energy infrastructure (TSO & DSO)
Convergence of national RES-support policies
Effective carbon pricing: ETS-relaunch (and tax)
Phasing-out conventional and nuclear subsidies
Developing flexibility-driven energy market design
An integrated CEF 2030 with mutually reinforcing
binding and ambitious targets for GHG-reduction,
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
 EU-targets and binding national targets

E R E F
Environmental and Energy Aid Guidelines
(EEAG 2014-2020)
 Part of State Aid Modernisation (SAM)
College Decision envisaged for April 9, 2014
Replacing Environmental State Aid Guidelines
 Guidelines: Facilitating implementation of legislation
 Highly problematic prescriptions for renewables support
 Competitive bidding as a rule
 Mandatory direct marketing (support: premium or TGC)
 Exceptions for small installations (<500/1000 kW – Wind: <3/6 turbines/MW)

E R E F
Impact of (draft) EEAG 2014-2020
 Partly in conflict with existing legislation (RED, TFEU)
 Member States’ control of targets and support schemes
 Discriminating against biomass (simple exclusion from bidding)
 Member States’ control of their energy mix
 Imposing competitive bidding as a rule for RES-support
 Exceptions only for a transition period and with clear reasons
FIT and FIP without prior bidding only exceptionally allowed
 Pre-empting policy decisions yet to be taken
 CEF 2030, targets and instruments subject to ongoing legislation

E R E F
The future: 2050

E R E F
(April 2010)
100% RES in Final Energy consumption
€ 2.7 billion cumulative investment

E R E F
100% RES-E
100% RES-H&Calmost 100% RES-T

E R E F

E R E F
High RES in EC-“Energy Roadmap 2050”
Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC

E R E F
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Reference 18.7 33.3 40.5 40.9 40.3
CPI 19.8 34.5 43.7 47 48.8
Energy Efficiency 19.7 36.8 52.9 59.5 64.2
Diversified supply technologies 19.7 36.6 51.2 54.4 59.1
High RES 19.8 36.6 59.8 76.8 86.4
Delayed CCS 19.7 36.5 51.7 58.3 60.7
Low Nuclear 19.7 36.4 54.6 58.8 64.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
Share of RES-E
Dominant RE-Shares in electricity sector

E R E F
Enabling Policy Measures
Supporting the transition towards a fully sustainable
renewables based energy supply in all EU policy areas
Completing the Internal Energy Market
Ambitious framework for Europe’s energy demand
Effective and full implementation of the RES-Directive
Phasing out all subsidies for fossil and nuclear energy (and
establish a meaningful carbon price – e.g. re-launching ETS)
Binding renewable energy targets for 2030 in CEF 2030

E R E F
Thank you for your attention!
Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
- EREF-President-

Renewable in Europe

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