1. Scenario Planning
Barcelona, 16 March 2011
Carsten Beck, CIFS

2. CIFS
• Founded in 1970 by Thorkil
Kristensen
• Member-based non-profit
• Private, neutral and
independent
• Cross-disciplinary think-tank
• (economists, political scientists,
ethnologists, communication experts,
sociologists, astrophysicists and
philosophers)
• About 30 employees
• International Future Clubs
www.cifs.dk

3. CIFS

5. Working with the future
&
change

6. Why do companies have to focus on the future?

7. Why cant we ask consumers about the
future?
”If I asked people
what they wanted, I
would have made a
faster horse”
Henry Ford

8. Why you need scenarios?
3D Color TV Slide-back Roof Personal Helicopter & MovingStairway House-control
Wall-Panel Roof Landing Area Panel
Glass Walls Dust-free Menu Selector & Giant-size Ultrasonic Electrical Phono-vision
Floors Microwave Stove Fruit Laundry Heat Unit Receiver

9. Why is there always more to do?
"Who the hell wants to hear actors
talk?”
H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

10. Why do great companies fail?
”I am not an economist, but I do believe that we
are growing”
President George W. Bush July 2008

11. Working with the future
Forecasts Scenarios Vision
• Likely futures • Possible, plausible • Desired futures
• Based on futures
relationships • Based on uncertainty •Value-based
• Hide risks • Illustrate risks
• Quantitative • Qualitative and • Hidden risks
• Need for decisions quantitative • Qualitative
• Used daily • Need to know what • Energizing
• Strong in the short- needs to be decided
term and low upon • Used daily
uncertainty • Used occasionally • Used as a basis for
• Strong in the voluntary change
medium- to long-term
perspective

12. Context and driving forces
Political
factors
Economic
factors
Shareholders
Suppliers
Society and
values
Customers
Culture & values
Contextual environment Transactional environment Organization
Structure
Competitors Competencies
Technological Offerings
factors Management
Regulation
Markets Funding
Environmental
factors
Legal
factors

13. The last 10 years…
• Dot-com crisis
• 9/11
• Internet penetration and social media in Africa
• Revolution in North Africa
• EU countries on the brink of bankruptcy
• Climate crisis
• Culture wars and the Muhammad Cartoon Crisis
• Women as a majority in universities
• Mobile phones in Africa
• China as a superpower
• Financial crisis
• The demand for Africas raw materials

15. Wild card:
Foreign land acquisitions

20. Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy

21. Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation: Global middle
class
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy

22. Megatrends
Driving forces for change

23. Megatrends
•10-30 year horizon
•Difficult in Africa
•You cannot choose not to be influenced
•Influences all of society
•But local varieties: religion in Nigeria
•Influences all people
•Look at patterns in consumption:
•Food, phone, bike, tv etc
•Strongly influences values and norms
•The uncertainties remain: exactly how and
how quickly

24. 15 Megatrends
1. Knowledge
2. Technological development
3. Acceleration
4. Complexity
5. Globalisation
6. Commercialisation
7. Economic growth
8. Democratisation
9. Materialization/ experience economy
10. Individualization
11. Network economy
12. Focus on health
13. Climate
14. Demographics
15. Urbanization

29. World population is growing…..
-1.47%
CIS
EU-27
1.94% Japan
China
United States
8.67% -7.60%
17.58%
World
9bn 7bn
21.66% MENA
India
38.95% 23.95%
Asia ex CIJ
26.59%
LATAM
SSA
55.05%
18.45%
19.96%
ROW
2030
500mn 2009
800mn % increase
1.3bn
1.5bn

30. ….and moving to cities…..
EU
US 72.6%
66.8%
78.4%
China Japan
82.3%
73.0%
47.0%
87.0%
60.4%
MENA
61.9%
67.5% India
30.0%
Sub Saharan
Africa 39.7%
37.3%
LATAM
79.6%
47.9%
84.9%
2030
100mn 2010
500mn
1bn % % Urban

32. Middle class now and in 2030
Europe
North America
Middle East Asia Pacific
and North Africa
Sub Saharan
Africa
Central and
South America
100mn
2030
500mn
2009
1bn

37. Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy

38. ? Uncertainties
?
Mantra:
? ”Big uncertainties –
big consequences”
consequences”

39. Identification of uncertainties
Either Or
A B
C D
E F
G H
I J
K L
M N
O P
Q R
S T

40. Choose the most important uncertainties
Either Or
A B
C D
E F
G H
I J
K L
M N
O P
Q R
S T

41. Building broad scenarios
M
G H
N

42. Uncertainties
Africa benefits from globalisation Africa is left behind
Mo Ibrahim ++ Mo Ibrahim --
Market Regulation
Convergence Polarization
Centralization Decentralization
Urbanisation works for all Villages left behind
Africa like Asia (consumption pattern) A special path for Africa (consumption
pattern)
More focus on climate/env Less focus on climate/env

43. Uncertanties
Africa benefits from globalisation Africa is left behind
Mo Ibrahim ++ Mo Ibrahim --
Market Regulation
Convergence Polarization
Centralization Decentralization
Urbanisation works for all Villages left behind
Africa like Asia (consumption pattern) A special path for Africa (consumption
pattern)
More focus on climate/env Less focus on climate/env

45. • Young urban
asiatic
consumers
• Slimmer fit
• Less US more
global

46. Scenarios
Realistic stories about the future
Scenarios are normally:
• NOT predictions
• Unlike the present
• Believable and possible
• Argumentable
• Profiled
• Internally consistent

47. External environment scenarios
Feelings
scenario A scenario B
Fast digitalisation Slow digitalisation
scenario C scenario D
Rationality

48. Scenarios can be used to…
• Identify challenges in the environment
– Threats and opportunities
– Help to prioritise and make decisions
• Test, develop and evaluate strategy – and innovate
– Business development, HR-development, product development,
personal development, branding, etc.
• Prepare research and scan the environment – as
guidelines
• Establish a common platform for learning,
development, communications and a common
language

49. Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy

50. PEST analysis
M
G H
N

51. Process: step-by-step
0. Problem formulation
1. Megatrends and their consequences
2. Identification and selection of
uncertainties
3. Development of broad scenarios based
on the selection
4. Organizational profiling in each field
5. Scenario-driven strategy