World Employment and Social Outlook - Trends 2015

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The ILO's World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends (WESO) 2015 report provides latest global and regional projections of employment and unemployment, employment by sector, vulnerable employment, labour productivity, informal employment and working poverty. They also offer an overview of income and social developments related to wage growth, income inequality and social unrest.

Wirtschaft & Finanzen

World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO):
Trends 2015
Job-friendly Macroeconomic Policies Unit
Research Department
International Labour Organization (ILO)
January 2015
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 1 / 24

The world of work faces multiple challenges
Global
challenges
Slow growth
Inequality
Decreasing
participation
Jobs gap
Youth
unemployment
Vulnerable
employment
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 2 / 24

Global trends Jobs gap
Global growth remains lackluster...
Global growth and its components (per cent per annum)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 3 / 24

Global trends Jobs gap
...preventing unemployment from falling
Global unemployment (millions)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 4 / 24

Global trends Jobs gap
The global job gap opens up further...
Global job gap, 2014-2019
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 5 / 24

Global trends Jobs gap
...with signiﬁcant variations across countries
Cross-country variations in unemployment rates (percentages)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 6 / 24

Global trends Youth unemployment
Youth unemployment continues to rise...
Change in youth unemployment, 2019 vs 2014
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 7 / 24

Global trends Youth unemployment
...especially in European countries...
Unemployment rates by age in the EU-28, Q2 2014 (percentage)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 8 / 24

Global trends Youth unemployment
... spreading the risk of social unrest....
Male youth unemployment and unrest (1991-2013)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 9 / 24

Global trends Youth unemployment
... which remains at its highest level for two decades
Social unrest across the world (index)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 10 / 24

Barriers to growth Overview
Global growth faces four headwinds
Barriers to
growth
Inequality
Job loss in
manufacturing
Gender gaps
Decreasing
participation
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 11 / 24

Barriers to growth Inequality
Inequality remains high in developing countries...
Inequality measured by Gini index (2010)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 12 / 24

Barriers to growth Inequality
...and keeps on rising in advanced economies...
Evolution of the average Gini coeﬃcient in G7 economies (2000-11)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 13 / 24

Barriers to growth Occupational shifts
...as medium-skill jobs disappear...
Change in employment by occupation in 2000-2013
(percentage points in total employment)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 14 / 24

Barriers to growth Occupational shifts
...weighting on stronger economic growth
Income inequality makes growth accelerations less likely
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 15 / 24

Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
Future employment growth is mainly expected in services...
Sectoral employment growth (p.a.): 2010-2019
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 16 / 24

Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
...as manufacturing no longer drives development...
Peak share of manufacturing employment (1992-2013)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 17 / 24

Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
...which bodes ill for a faster economic recovery
Job creation in manufacturing makes growth slowdowns less likely
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 18 / 24

Barriers to growth Female employment
Women face high risks of vulnerable employment...
Diﬀerence between male and female vulnerable employment rates
(percentage points)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 19 / 24

Barriers to growth Female employment
...and are less often employed
Diﬀerence between male and female employment rates
(percentage points)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 20 / 24

Barriers to growth Global labour supply
Global labour supply is set to slow down...
Labour force participation rate (percentage)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 21 / 24

Barriers to growth Global labour supply
...increasing the risk of growth setbacks
Impact of labour supply on the probability of growth slowdowns
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 22 / 24

Policy conclusions
How can we get growth back on track?
Growth
Bolster aggregate demand and
enterprise investment
Finance
Re-orient credit system to
support the real economy
Inequality
Foster quality jobs, participation,
skills and income growth
Key challenge
The word economy is expanding
well below the pre-crisis trends
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 23 / 24

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