During our March 2016 World Future Society AZ meeting, Rob Panacci and Eric Kingsbury led a scenario development process based on the classic 2X2 Scenario approach from the Global Business Network (GBN). Our topic was "American Politics." This document shows the outcome, including 8 scenarios in brief.

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WFS Arizona Chapter
March 2016 Meeting
March 22, 2016
GBN 2X2 Scenario Exercise
Future of American Politics, March 22, 2016

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The Project
During our February meeting meeting, the Arizona chapter of the World Future Society
discussed taking on a think tank–like project and, as a group, tackling a future challenge. So
for our March meeting, Rob Panacci and Eric Kingsbury led a scenario development process
based on the classic 2X2 Scenario approach from the Global Business Network (GBN). In
this approach, basically, one looks at trends and drivers, and then one maps on two axes the
key driving trends. At the corner intersections of opposite axes, one builds the scenarios.
For our two-hour exercise, we tackled something rather topical — "Politics in America." After
a quick introduction to the 2X2 concept, we briefly considered the collection of signals and
developing trends together, and then we split into two groups, Groups A and B, to discuss
specifics further and work out our proposed future scenarios.
At the outset, we suggested some potential drivers, but teams were free to come up with their
own, and they did. In just two hours, the two teams came up with two very intriguing, but, we
all agreed, complementary set of scenarios.
The next two slides illustrate the two sets of scenarios. Team A’s scenarios were built around
Public Service Governance vs. Private Service Governance, on one axis, and Isolationist vs.
Globalist on the other. Team B built around Elite-Dominated vs. Populist on one axis and
Public Engagement vs. Disengagement on the other.
Team A provided, among other insights, the idea that you can hear in some of the current and
past election rhetoric appeals to isolationist scenarios, which rarely play out in practice. Team
B noted that the future is likely to go through a cycle of three of their scenarios as the public
reacts to various political realities, but the preferred scenario is unlikely to occur.
GBN 2X2 Scenario Exercise
Future of American Politics, March 22, 2016

3. Isolationist Globalist
Private Service Government
Public Service Government
Great America (Pre-WWII) UN on Steroids
MNC World DominanceGated Community
• A great deal of participation in global activities
• Seeking to better the world and participate in
climate and development initiatives
• Open borders and emphasis on cultural exchange
• Peace Corps kind of government
• Active foreign policy focused on improvements.
• Focus on social responsibility and solving
problems.
• Government that serves people
• Patriotic and potentially racist and nationalist
• Walls keep out immigrants
• Great sense of community and public service
• No interest in foreign policy; fortress mentality
• Government seeks world dominance; involved
in a lot of special interest activities
• Government networks with elites around the
globe
• Corruption and unethical behavior
• Seek to manipulate the world for benefits of the
elite of the country.
• County of great inequality
• A lot of rules and regulations and monitoring
• Walls keep out immigrants
• The wealthy and socially connected dominate
government
• Social divides
• Government represents special interest only
• No interest in foreign policy; fortress mentality
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Team A | Outcome
GBN 2X2 Scenario Exercise
Future of American Politics, March 22, 2016

4. Elite-
Dominated
Populist
Public
Disengagement
Public
Engagement
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Best and Brightest Neo-Jeffersonians
IdiocracyRunning Man
Disruptive Potential of AI
and Post-Scarcity Economics
Clinton
• Seriousness of political
coverage
• Commitment to
governance
• Non-partisan districts
Trump
GBN 2X2 Scenario Exercise
Future of American Politics, March 22, 2016
[Stable] [Disruptive]
• Radical outsiders
• Non-politicians leading
• Discontinuous
• High turnover
• Lawyers and bureaucocrats
• Decades of experience
• Strong continuity
• Domination by
political class
• Self-interest, special
interests
• Autocratic, quasi-fascistic
• Leadership by committed
public servants
• Technocrats
• Aristocratic
• Stable, continuous
• Status quo
• Country club
The Cycle — There may be in the future (or may already be
developing now) a cyclical progression from Best and Brightest
to Running Man to Idiocracy, as the public reacts to various
political and leadership realities.
Power Corrupts
Demagogue
Takes Over
Getting
Things
Done
Matters
Preferred but Less
Likely — There may be
in the future a Neo-
Jeffersonian scenario
where the public
becomes the informed
and engaged farmer-
citizens that would create
a different kind of
democracy; technology
could help facilitate this
alternative future.
Team B | Outcome

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