Tibor Farago, Honorary professor at St. Istvan University/ former Hungarian chief negotiator for UNFCCC and IPCC national focal contact

CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE AND CHALLENGES DR. TIBOR FARAGÓ European Journalism Centre's Climate Action Conference, Budapest, 23 March 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

1. UNPRECEDENTED ? are there precedents and other processes from which we can learn ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],acidification: emisson-transmission-deposition „ ozone hole”: 1979-1988 (UNEP, 2005)

UNPRECEDENTED ? comparison of "perception" of atmo-related pressures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

2. UNCERTAINTIES ? w hat we know already with adequate level of certainty to act ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],climate system and processes CO2 1958- CO2: 900-                                                                  900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 CO2 Concentration (ppmv)

UNCERTAINTIES ? decision-making under uncertainties and the precautionary approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],emission red. pathway .. 2C

3. CONCERN ? why this problem " bothers " even the high-level policymakers ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],share of sectors in glob ghg-emissions sectors bearing the c.c. impacts

4. RE PARATION ? we have interfered with the global env/climate system: how to heal it? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Global carbon cycle (IPCC, 2007, Fig. 7.3.) Toronto, 1988:

RE PARATION ? options to stabilize atmospheric ghg concentrations (at a level ..) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],a fforestation, re-, red-def reduce: CO2-emission convert to methanol sequestration: capture, storage em-reduction: save. efficien. em-reduction: renewables em-reduction: coal-to-gas enhance: CO2-removal

5. ADAPTATION ? mitigation and/or adaptation ? - case of natural env variability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Little Ice Age : 14 /16 -19 centuries , Northern -H, W-Europe (Mann, 2002) Sahel: annual rainfall, 1900- 2007 1968-74 and recurring dr. periods 1400 1600 1800 1200

ADAPTATION ? mitigation and/or adaptation ? - case of man-made env. change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU: adaptation policy (COM: White Paper, 2009) Addressing c . c . requires two types of response. Firstly, and importantly, we must reduce our gh g emissions and secondly we must take adap - tation action to deal with the unavoidable impacts . C limate change, Hungary mitigating the hazard . pre - paring for impacts (2003-8) O bjective of the Project : systemization of the scientific results on the c . c . hazard, assessment of its impacts , the science-based national mitigation and adaptation response policy options . NAPA: Maldives .. to present a coherent frame -__ work to c . c . adaptation that enhances the resilience of the natural, human, and social systems and ensures their sustainability in the face of predicted climate hazards

6. RESPONSIBILITY ? - common but differentiated responsibility and how to quantify it ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CO2-emissions tCO2/cap, 2002 (UNEP-GRID, 2005) US 20 S-Arabia, AUS 18 CAN 14 RF 10 UK, DE 10 S-Afr 7.5 CN 2 IN 1 Togo 0.5 Malaysia 6 1960-2005 US CN CN US

7. CONVERGENCE ? i nternational sci . and pol . developments: convergence or divergence ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],C.Y.Lam, Hong Kong Observatory 2007 + completed 2010: 389 '07 BM '97 KP '97 AR2 2013 ? '14 AR5 COP15: HOPE nhagen and there are still hopes after Cancun towards next COPs

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Tibor Farago, Honorary professor at St. Istvan University/ former Hungarian chief negotiator for UNFCCC and IPCC national focal contact

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