1) Cross-border ecommerce is growing much faster than domestic ecommerce, with cross-border growth expected to be 5 times that of domestic from 2016-2020. 2) Emerging markets like Latin America and Africa are seeing huge growth in internet users and incomes, creating new consumers and spending power. 3) While most consumption still occurs in advanced economies currently, future spending is expected to shift more towards emerging markets, younger consumers, and urban areas as those populations grow and become wealthier. 4) For companies to succeed in cross-border sales, they must understand the characteristics and preferences of their target customers, including differences in demographics, geography, and psychographics between markets.

1. Why Go Cross-Border Now?
Where Is Growth Coming From – and Is
That Where You Want to Be?
Dr. Kati Suominen
Founder & CEO, NextradeGroup & TradeUpCapital Fund
Adjunct Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
11 August 2016
eCommerce Day, Buenos Aires
kati@nextradegroupllc.com

2. Cross-Border Trade Is Growing

3. Cross-Border Ecommerce Grows Much Faster
Cross-border ecommerce growth =
5x domestic ecommerce growth in
2016-2020

4. Who’s Driving This?
B2C Ecommerce Markets in 2015
Source: eMarketer.

5. Huge Growth in Internet Users
270m in
LatAm

6. 6
Source: UNCTAD
% of individuals purchasing products online, 2013
Most emerging market shoppers have not bought online

7. Source: Author based on Eurostat.
Even Most EU companies Buy Offline

8. Incomes Are Growing
Per capita income, 2016 and 2020
• 75% of consumption growth
is from income growth

9. Strong Income Growth in LatAm 2016-2020

10. LatAm Companies: Already in Crossborder

11. In Many Markets:
23% sell in 5 or more markets

12. Derive 30-40% of revenue from cross-border

13. China’s $24,000 Club
• Higher incomes: more discretionary income,
purchases of luxury products
• 100 million by 2020
• Highly connected
• Buying ~$6.5T
• 53% of the millennials – who buy 40% more than
older people of same incomes

14. = 1 new Germany

15. Womenomics
• Women drive 65-80% of all B2C purchasing
• Women have money to spend: incomes at $18T by 2018
• U.S. women make 61% more online purchases than men
and make up 58% of online spending

16. Asian women emerging as spenders
Source: EIU.

17. Africa 2025: 50% online, spend $75bn
Online Retail Spend, in billions $

18. Africa Buys on Mobile
Online Purchase Method

19. Huge Mass of Urban Consumers
• Want to reach 80% of consumers by 2020?
 Be in 430 world markets = cities
• 410m people & 61% of world GDP by 2030 in 750 mega-cities
• 91% of growth in consumption comes from cities
• Large young & urban populations in Nigeria, China, India,
Brazil, U.S.
• Most urban consumption still in China + North America: 315
cities make up 40% of consumption growth

20. Biggest 2030 spenders: today’s
millennials
Source: McKinsey Global Institute.

21. Source: McKinsey Global Institute.

22. Surprise! Rural ecommerce growing fast
• Rural consumers: 80m new online buyers in
2015 alone
• Rural buying growing with rise of smartphones:
physical retail not near, while phones are
• India: more and more demand from 3,313 tier II
& III cities & 1,233 rural hubs

23. • B2B ecommerce at $6.7T by 2020: manufacturers and
wholesalers getting online
• Smartphones accelerate this: already, 42% of B2B purchase
researchers use a mobile device during the purchasing process
• >50% of B2B decision-makers in 2020: Millennials
B2B Is Exploding
Source: Google.
2012 2015
3x growth in
B2B searches
from mobiles

24. Cities
What Is Your Strategy?
New Spending Power
New connectivity
China
$24K
Club
B2C &
B2B
Emerging
markets of
Africa, LAC
B2C, B2B
Emerging
market women
B2C
Advanced
economy
women and
men
B2C
Advanced
economy
businesses
B2B
Rural, BOP
B2C, B2C

25. LatAm Cross-Border Challenges

26. Total “Distance” to Market:
Tariffs, Shipping, Taxes – Leather & Shoes

27. Textiles

28. $
Legal and regulatory frameworks
Ecommerce strategies Ecommerce logistics
Online payments
ICT infrastructure and services
Ecommerce skills
Much has to go right in the “enabling
environment”

29. Most consumption still in advanced economies
% of world GDP per capita, 2016 and 2020

30. In B2B too, Think of Millennials & Mobile:
Shift in B2B Researcher Demographic
Source: Google.

31. How Do People Buy (or Browse)
Source: Nielsen.

33. What Sectors – and Where?
Source: Nielsen.

35. Ecommerce is still driven by only a
handful of humanity…
Demographics
Geography Psychographics

36. Ecommerce is still driven by only a
handful of humanity…
Demographics
Geography Psychographics
Demographics

37. Know Your Customer

38. Internet is used more by some
demographic groups

42. The Next 5 Years