Lily Varon, da Forrester Research, fala sobre "Apresentação do “Latin America Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020”" no Fórum E-Commerce Brasil 2016. Saiba mais em https://www.ecommercebrasil.com.br/forum2016

1. eCommerce Trends and
Outlook for Latin America
LILY VARON
@lilyvaron

2. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2
We work with business and
technology leaders to develop
customer-obsessed strategies
that drive growth.

3. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 3
Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways

4. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 4
Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways

5. 14.3%
8.3%
9.4%
eCommerce is growing globally.
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific11.2%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (US), Q4 2015 Update; Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 to 2020 (Latin America); Forrester Research Online
Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Western Europe), Q4 2015 Update; Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Asia Pacfic)
CAGR
CAGR
CAGR
CAGR

6. The population is relatively young
Argentina & Brazil 31
Chile 34
Colombia 29
Mexico 28
Peru 27
US 38
UK 40
China 37
Japan 46
Source: "The World Factbook," CIA

7. The middle class has grown substantially
2015 GDP per capita is
generally higher than many
large markets in Asia

8. There is significant online buyer growth
potential in Latin America
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecasts, 2015 To 2020

9. Source: “The Evolution Of Global eCommerce Markets” Forrester report
eCommerce
markets evolve
in four phases.

10. Traditional retailers play a key role in
driving eCommerce

11. Mobile commerce
hasn’t taken off
like in other markets


12. $13.1B
$4.8B
$2.9B
Brazil’s online sales are nearly double
those for Mexico & Argentina
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
combined.

13. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 13
Online retail sales are still a small
percentage of total retail sales
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Source:Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

14. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 14
Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways

15. Brazil

16. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 16
Brazil’s eCommerce revenues will
continue to grow through the recession
$13.1
$11.7 $12.8
$14.1
$15.7
$17.9
Total online
retail spending
(US$ billions)
60.3
54.2
49.0
44.440.437.0
Forecast
2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020
Total online
buyers
(millions)
CAGR
from 2015
to 2020:
6.5%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

17. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 17
Consumers are buying across a wide
variety of categories online in Brazil
2010: $7.5B
Phase 3
65%
Phase 4
11%
Other
24%
2020: $18B
Phase 3
55%
Phase 4
32%
Other
13%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)

18. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 18
Some key KPIs shed light on how Brazil
differs from other markets
Source: “2014 State of eCommerce Brazil”, a joint survey conducted by Forrester Research and E-Commerce Brasil

19. Help us refresh this data!

21. Import restrictions challenge global brands

22. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 22
Argentina is the 2nd largest eCommerce
market in Latin America
$4.8
$4.2
$5.0
$5.7
$6.4 $7.0
Total online
retail spending
(US$ billions)
18.718.0
17.0
15.9
14.4
12.6
Forecast
2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020
Total online
buyers
(millions)
CAGR
from 2015
to 2020:
8.0%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

23. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 23
Early stage categories continue to
dominate online sales
2015: $4.7B
Phase 3
65%
Phase 4
18%
Other
16%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)

24. Even so, retailers are beginning to offer
advanced omnichannel offerings

26. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 26
Mexico’s eCommerce market is small
today but shows longer-term potential
$2.9 $3.2
$3.8
$4.4
$5.1
$6.0
Total online
retail spending
(US$ billions)
25.5
21.6
18.3
15.6
13.4
11.6
Forecast
2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020
Total online
buyers
(millions)
CAGR
from 2015
to 2020:
15.4%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

27. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 27
Early stage categories dominate online
sales in Mexico
2015: $3B
Phase 3
64%
Phase 4
17%
Other
19%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)

28. Consumers need tangible evidence they
should trust online retailers

30. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 30
Mexico’s potential has spurred global
brands into action

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Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce growth in Latin
America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways

32. eCommerce in
Mexico is set to
grow significantly in
the years to come
If Argentina’s import
restrictions ease up, it will
spur eCommerce growth
(and more international
competition)
Despite economic crisis,
eCommerce in Brazil will
continue to grow

33. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 33
Key takeaways
› Understand which eCommerce maturity
phase each market is in
› Establish a level of trust with consumers in
earlier-stage markets
› Implement key eCommerce features in
more mature markets

34. © 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 34
And for online retailers operating in Brazil
› The value and convenience of the online
channel will still draw shoppers
› Ensure search and display features
highlight promotions and discounts
› Be explicit about how you help consumers
save money
› Turn attention to customer retention

35. forrester.com
Thank you
Lily Varón
+1 617.613.6388
lvaron@forrester.com
@lilyvaron