Join eMarketer as we share our 2013 holiday ecommerce forecast and discuss the trends that will emerge during the last quarter of the year.

1. ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Online Holiday Shopping
Preview—What’s in Store?
Krista Garcia
Analyst
SEPTEMBER 12, 2013
Sponsored by:

2. ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Ground we’ll cover today:
The US digital holiday sales outlook
How the 2012 holiday will inform this season
Omnichannel retailing’s role in holiday sales
How mobile is changing the in-store shopping
experience
Whether social media will have an impact on
holiday sales
Twitter – #eMwebinar

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The 2013 Outlook:
Mostly Optimistic

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Holiday
season
digital sales
growth in
the US has
been strong
for five years
running

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Mcommerce
is now
boosting
US retail
ecommerce
to new highs

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US consumers’ holiday spending
intentions are similar to 2012
Gen X (34%) and baby boomers (32%) are expected to make up
the largest shares of spending

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US retail
ecommerce
sales were
strong in the
first half of
2013

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A majority of US retailers forecast 2013
holiday sales will rise more than 10%
60%
Twitter – #eMwebinar

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Industry experts predict digital sales
growth will range from mid-teens to 20%
“I would forecast that we’re going to see a stronger
holiday this year than we did last year or in 2011 by
a few percentage points.”
—Eric Best, founder and CEO of Mercent
“Even though we expect shopping to start earlier,
we’re still projecting heavy growth for the key dates
like Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday.”
—Jay Henderson, global program director at IBM Smarter Commerce
“What we’ve already seen, and is only going to
continue in the holiday season, is continual
significant growth in online sales.”
—Jacob King, SVP and general manager at dunnhumby

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A Look Back at 2012

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US holiday ecommerce sales reached
$42.3 billion in 2012, up 14% from 2011

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Is couch commerce migrating to the
dinner table?

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Mobile
commerce
came into
its own
during the
2012 holiday
season
“To a certain degree, the success of tablet
shopping and couch commerce last year
caught a lot of retailers off guard.”
—Jay Henderson, global program director at
IBM Smarter Commerce

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US mcommerce spending has spiked
around the holidays since 2011
Twitter – #eMwebinar

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What’s in Store for
Holiday 2013?

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What’s in store for 2013?
• Continued blurring of channels
• Mobile tools for both shoppers and sales
associates
• More fulfillment and delivery options
• Social media still a wild card for sales
Twitter – #eMwebinar

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Why omnichannel?
“We see that a
multiscreen user is
six times more
valuable than a
single-screen user.”
—Gerry McGoldrick, vice
president of marketing at
Rue La La, speaking at
eTail East, August 2013

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At its core,
omnichannel
retailing is
about the
customer
experience

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What’s in store for 2013?
• Continued blurring of channels
• Mobile tools for both shoppers and sales
associates
• More fulfillment and delivery options
• Social media still a wild card for sales
Twitter – #eMwebinar

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Mobile: In-store for shoppers

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In-store mobile offers: Timberland
In May, Timberland began testing a
20% off in-store-only discount at two
stores in NYC and Boston. The Swirl
app is opt-in.
Data source : Ad Age, “Timberland, Kenneth Cole Track Shoppers Who Opt-In For Deals,” August 26, 2013
Results:
72% of offers were opened
35% were redeemed

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Mobile apps for shoppers: Lowe’s

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Mobile
point-of-sale
systems are
becoming
more
mainstream
27.9% have deployed mobile POS; 21.3%
will test by end of 2013

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Mobile for sales associates: Nordstrom
“At The Rack, mobile has been particularly impactful because it’s helped us
eliminate wait times and lines, and that’s especially important in an off-price
shopping experience.” —Colin Johnson, Nordstrom spokesperson

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Showrooming … so 2012?
Twitter – #eMwebinar
“Brick-and-mortar
stores are going to
come into the 2013
holiday better
equipped to match
prices on a phone
against Amazon,
apply a discount at
the cash register and
arm in-store
associates with
real-time data to be
able to make better
decisions that
support the shopper
converting in-store.”
—Eric Best, Mercent

26. ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
What’s in store for 2013?
• Continued blurring of channels
• Mobile tools for both shoppers and sales
associates
• More fulfillment and delivery options
• Social media still a wild card for sales
Twitter – #eMwebinar

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More retailers are using their physical
stores for online-order fulfillment

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In-store order fulfillment: Urban Outfitters
Twitter – #eMwebinar

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Free
shipping has
become an
accepted
part of
holiday
promotional
budgets.
48.9% of US
retailers
expect to
increase
free shipping
in 2013.

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Delivery is getting speedier

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What’s in store for 2013?
• Continued blurring of channels
• Mobile tools for both shoppers and sales
associates
• More fulfillment and delivery options
• Social media still a wild card for sales
Twitter – #eMwebinar

32. ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Social isn’t
expected to
make a
strong
direct
impact on
US holiday
sales in
2013

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Retailers are still struggling with
attribution for social
“As we get more sophisticated, as the
social channels themselves offer a
better platform for tracking revenue,
we’ll start to see social become more
of a real channel.”
—Marti Tedesco, senior director of marketing at Baynote

34. ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Facebook
still
dominates
US retailers’
social media
investments,
but visually
focused
social
platforms
are gaining
ground

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In-store social: Nordstrom
Twitter – #eMwebinar

36. ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Conclusions:
Holiday ecommerce will continue to increase, with
gains outpacing overall retail sales growth. Digital is
growing organically and being driven by mobile.
Mobile will be more pervasive for both shopping and
selling. Tablets and smartphones will aid mobile shoppers in any
location.
Customer experience is at the core of omnichannel.
Inventory transparency and new fulfillment and delivery models are
important, but shoppers mostly care about getting the product they
want when they need it.
There isn’t a straight path from social media to
sales, though attribution is getting better and retailers are
becoming more creative.
Twitter – #eMwebinar

37. Drive Conversions and Revenue
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Sophisticated made simple
Kevin Skurski | Director of Marketing Communications

38. Holiday Resource Center
A collection of tools and research,
including white papers, guides and
blog posts.
Top 12 Marketing Tips for the Holidays
2013 Holiday Planning Month-by-Month
Guide
Loading the Sleigh: Marketers’ Plans &
Expectations for the Holiday Season
bronto.com/holiday

39. Triggered Messages
Automate, Increase Engagement
& Drive Revenue with Triggered
Messages
Content and creative best practices
7 Triggered message program examples
A guide to defining business rules
bronto.com/resources

40. Tips & Tricks
Expertise from the field
White papers
Customer success stories
Blog posts
bronto.com/resources

41. ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Q&A Session
Online Holiday Shopping
Preview—What’s In Store?
Sponsored by:
Bronto
You will receive an email
tomorrow with a link to
view the deck and
webinar recording.
Krista Garcia
Learn more about digital marketing with an
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Around 200 eMarketer reports are published
each year. Here are some recent reports you
may be interested in:
Holiday Shopping Preview: Omnichannel’s Blurred
Lines
Worldwide B2C Ecommerce: 2013 Forecast and
Comparative Estimates
The US Retail Industry 2013: Digital Ad Spending
Forecast and Key Trends
Key Digital Trends for Midyear 2013: The
Fragmentation of Mobile
Multichannel Attribution: What Retailers Need to Know
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