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Zero to One
by Peter Thiel & Blake Masters
Resume of the book graphs @stefania_druga
Technology vs Globalization
Vertical
intensive
progress
Horizontal
extensive progress
globalization (1 to n)
technology (0 to 1)
Perception: firms are similar
Perfect
competition
Monopoly
Firm
A
Firm
B
Reality: differences are deep
Perfect
competition
Monopoly
Firm
A
Firm
B
Square payment copycats
for mobile credit card readers
Square
original solution
2010
NetSecure Intuit Paypal
U.S.,
1950s-1960s
U.S.,
1982-present
China,
present
Europe,
present
World view of the future
Definite Indefinite
Optimistic
Pessimistic
U.S.,
1950s-1960s
U.S.,
1982-present
China,
present
Europe,
present
World view of the future
Definite Indefinite
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Investments
Savings
High
High
Low
Low
Hegel,
Marx
Nozick,
Rawls
Plato,
Aristotle
Epicurus,
Lucretius
Philosophy view of the future
Definite Indefinite
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Secrets
Conventions Secrets Mysteries
Easy Hard Impossible
Mafia mechanisms
0 to 1
Consultants
(nihilism)
Cults
(dogmatism)
How to sell your product ?
Dead zone
Viral Marketing Sales Complex
Sales
1 $ 100 $ 10.000 $ 10 mil $
Consumer SME Big Gov & corp
Substitution:
“The world is
flat”
Mimetic
consumer
competition
Mostly
complementary
Machines
don’t demand:
all value goes
to people
Supply
(of labor)
Demand
(for resources)
Globalization
(other humans)
Technology
(better computers)
Future of work ?
1. The Engineering question: Can you create breakthrough technology instead of incremental
improvements?
2. The Timing question: Is now the right time to start your particular business?
3. The monopoly question: Are starting with a big share from a small market?
4. The people question: Do you have the right team?
5. The distribution question: Do you have a way to deliver your product?
6. The durability question: Will your market position be defensible 10 and 20 years into the future?
7. The secret question: Have you identified an unique opportunity that others don't see?
7 questions every business should answer
Uncontrollable organisms Perfectly determined code
Poorly understood, naturally Well understood, artificial
Indefinite, random Definite, engineering
Heavily regulated Basically unregulated
Expensive (>$1BN per drug) Cheap (a little seed money)
High-salaried, unaligned lab drones Committed entrepreneurial hackers
Indefinite vs Definite Optimism for startups
Biotech Startups Software startups
Subject
Environment
Approach
Regulation
Cost
Team
People normal distribution of traits
frequency
averageweak/nerd
idiot savant
disagreeable
outsider
poor
infamous
strong/athlete
polymath
charismatic
insider
rich
famous
Founders distribution of traits
frequency
averageweak/nerd
idiot savant
disagreeable
outsider
poor
infamous
strong/athlete
polymath
charismatic
insider
rich
famous
actually
different
others
exaggerate
they
exaggerate
develop
extreme traits
Explanation Founders distribution of traits
Four scenarios for the future:
• recurrent collapse
• plateau
• extinction
• takeoff
Conclusion: Stagnation vs Singularity

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