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Voting, Elections and
     Campaigns
Patterns in Voter Turnout
•       turnout - the proportion of the voting-
        age public that votes
•       Education and Income
    –     Higher education  more likely to vote
    –     Higher income  more likely to vote
•       Age
    –     Over 30  more likely to vote
Patterns in Voter Turnout
• Gender
   – About the same or women slightly more likely to vote
• Race and Ethnicity
   – Whites tend to vote more regularly; may be
     education/income effects
   – Hispanic Americans less likely to vote than African
     Americans
• Interest in Politics
   – More interested  more likely to vote
Why Is Voter Turnout So Low?
•    Too Busy
•    Difficulty of Registration – burden of
     registration on individual
•    Difficulty of Absentee Voting
•    Number of Elections – as in too many
     elections
Patterns in Vote Choice
•       Party Identification
•       Issues
    –     retrospective judgment – evaluation of
          party in power
    –     prospective judgment – evaluation of a
          candidate’s pledge
Types of Elections
– primary elections – who will represent party
  in general election
– closed primaries – only party’s registered
  voters can participate
– open primaries – anyone is allowed to vote,
  even from other parties
– crossover voting – participation in the other
  party’s primary
– raiding – organized attempt to influence
  other party results
Types of Elections
– runoff primary – occurs when there is no
  majority
– general election – election to public office
– initiative – citizens propose legislation
– referendum – legislature proposes legislation
– recall – remove an incumbent from office
Nomination Campaign
•       Begins at candidacy and ends at the party
        convention
    –        Primaries versus Caucuses
         •     primaries direct election, caucuses party meetings
         •     front-loading – the tendency of states to choose an early
               date on the primary calendar
    –        The Party Conventions
         •     nomination usually settled well in advance
    –        Delegate Selection
         •     delegates are usually more elite than average Americans
The Key Players
•       The Candidate
•       The Campaign Staff
    –     volunteers are central to campaigns.
•       The Candidate’s Professional Staff
    –     campaign manager – coordinates the campaign
    –     finance chair – fund-raising
    –     pollster – public opinion surveys
    –     direct mailer – direct mail fund-raising
    –     communications director – media strategy
    –     press secretary – communicates with journalists
    –     Internet team – web resources
The Electoral College
•       The Electoral College in the Nineteenth
        Century
    –     confusion in 1800
    –     modified by the Twelfth Amendment – separate
          elections for president and vice president
•       The Electoral College in the Twentieth and
        Twenty-First Centuries
    –     Bush versus Gore (2000)
    –     reapportionment – the reallocation of the number
          of seats in the House of Representatives allocated
          to each state after each decennial census.
    –     shifts in population could alter the political map
Congressional Elections
•       The Incumbency Advantage – people in office
        tend to remain in office. High rate of re-
        election, even when approval of Congress
        remarkably low…why?
    –        Redistricting
         •     redistricting – redrawing congressional districts to reflect
               increases or decreases in seats allotted to the states as
               well as population shifts within a state.
         •     gerrymandering – drawing of boundaries to product a
               particular electoral outcome
    –        The Impact of Scandals
         •     Most incumbents implicated in scandals retire or resign
Congressional Elections
•   Presidential Coattails
    –   Successful presidential candidates carry into office
        congressional candidates of the same party in the
        same election
•   Midterm Elections – elections that take place in
    the middle of a presidential term
    –   the incumbent party usually loses seats in midterm
        elections
•   The 2008 Congressional Elections
    –   Democratic majority in both houses, plus the
        Presidency
The Media’s Role in the
               Campaign Process
•       Paid Media – political advertisements
    –     positive ads
    –     negative ads
    –     contrast ads
    –     inoculation ads
•       Free Media – news stories
    –     controlled by editors, not candidates
•       The New Media – Internet
    –     more information, more quickly
    –     “rapid response”
    –     first use of internet in 1992
    –     social networking sites

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Voter Turnout, Election Types, and Campaign Fundamentals

  • 2. Patterns in Voter Turnout • turnout - the proportion of the voting- age public that votes • Education and Income – Higher education  more likely to vote – Higher income  more likely to vote • Age – Over 30  more likely to vote
  • 3. Patterns in Voter Turnout • Gender – About the same or women slightly more likely to vote • Race and Ethnicity – Whites tend to vote more regularly; may be education/income effects – Hispanic Americans less likely to vote than African Americans • Interest in Politics – More interested  more likely to vote
  • 4. Why Is Voter Turnout So Low? • Too Busy • Difficulty of Registration – burden of registration on individual • Difficulty of Absentee Voting • Number of Elections – as in too many elections
  • 5. Patterns in Vote Choice • Party Identification • Issues – retrospective judgment – evaluation of party in power – prospective judgment – evaluation of a candidate’s pledge
  • 6. Types of Elections – primary elections – who will represent party in general election – closed primaries – only party’s registered voters can participate – open primaries – anyone is allowed to vote, even from other parties – crossover voting – participation in the other party’s primary – raiding – organized attempt to influence other party results
  • 7. Types of Elections – runoff primary – occurs when there is no majority – general election – election to public office – initiative – citizens propose legislation – referendum – legislature proposes legislation – recall – remove an incumbent from office
  • 8. Nomination Campaign • Begins at candidacy and ends at the party convention – Primaries versus Caucuses • primaries direct election, caucuses party meetings • front-loading – the tendency of states to choose an early date on the primary calendar – The Party Conventions • nomination usually settled well in advance – Delegate Selection • delegates are usually more elite than average Americans
  • 9. The Key Players • The Candidate • The Campaign Staff – volunteers are central to campaigns. • The Candidate’s Professional Staff – campaign manager – coordinates the campaign – finance chair – fund-raising – pollster – public opinion surveys – direct mailer – direct mail fund-raising – communications director – media strategy – press secretary – communicates with journalists – Internet team – web resources
  • 10. The Electoral College • The Electoral College in the Nineteenth Century – confusion in 1800 – modified by the Twelfth Amendment – separate elections for president and vice president • The Electoral College in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries – Bush versus Gore (2000) – reapportionment – the reallocation of the number of seats in the House of Representatives allocated to each state after each decennial census. – shifts in population could alter the political map
  • 11. Congressional Elections • The Incumbency Advantage – people in office tend to remain in office. High rate of re- election, even when approval of Congress remarkably low…why? – Redistricting • redistricting – redrawing congressional districts to reflect increases or decreases in seats allotted to the states as well as population shifts within a state. • gerrymandering – drawing of boundaries to product a particular electoral outcome – The Impact of Scandals • Most incumbents implicated in scandals retire or resign
  • 12. Congressional Elections • Presidential Coattails – Successful presidential candidates carry into office congressional candidates of the same party in the same election • Midterm Elections – elections that take place in the middle of a presidential term – the incumbent party usually loses seats in midterm elections • The 2008 Congressional Elections – Democratic majority in both houses, plus the Presidency
  • 13. The Media’s Role in the Campaign Process • Paid Media – political advertisements – positive ads – negative ads – contrast ads – inoculation ads • Free Media – news stories – controlled by editors, not candidates • The New Media – Internet – more information, more quickly – “rapid response” – first use of internet in 1992 – social networking sites