Jon Bartholic

1. An Integrative Decision Support System for
Managing Water Resources Under Increased
Climate Variability (and Growing Demand for Food)
Project Goal:
To develop and disseminate a Decision Support System (DSS) that integrates a
diverse set of hydrologic systems, models, analytical tools, and processes,
that will enable water resources policy-makers, managers, planners, and
agricultural producers to consider current and expanding water use and the
future impacts of varying climatic conditions on water resources in their
decision-making processes.
Legend
Distance
Tools
Print map
Evaluate a
BMP
Kalamazoo River
Watershed
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Select Time
Period:
o 2030s
o 2040s
o 2050s
o 2060s
o 2070s
o 2080s
o 2090s
Select Climate
Scenario:
o CCSM-a1fi
o CCSM-b1
o HADCM3-a1fi
o HADCM3-b1
Select Layer
Name:
o ET
o Recharge
o Stream flow
o Soil Moisture
o Water Table
Depth
o Etc….
Prairie River
Watershed
Legend
Distance
Tools
Print map
Evaluate a
BMP
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
User clicks “Evaluate a BMP”  User
draws polygon  Calculate change
recharge, surface runoff, and
evapotranspiration under various
climate scenarios within the user-
defined polygon.
Current Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Current Land cover: Agriculture
Selected Area Size: 40 acres
Current Recharge: 12 inches/year
Study Area
The project is focused on southwest
Michigan, an area dominated by
agriculture, sandy soils, and moderate
slopes. The region has a population of
almost 2.5 million people (2010 U.S.
Census), and its main cities are Grand
Rapids (200,000) and Kalamazoo
(77,000)
Main Land Covers (NLCD 2006)
53% Agriculture
16% Forest
16% Urban/Suburban
12% Wetlands
Hydrologic Modeling
SWAT
400
450
500
550
600
650
mm/yr
Year
Evapotranspiration
HADCM3-b1i
HADCM3-A1Fi
CCSM-b1i
CCSM-A1Fi
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
mm/yr
Year
Ground Water Recharge
HADCM3 b1
HADCM3 A1Fi
CCSM3 b1
CCSM3 A1Fi
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is being used to estimate
changes in ground water resources under various future climate scenarios.
Initial results for the Prairie River Watershed show an increasing trend of
ground water recharge, following an overall trend of increasing
precipitation and, towards the end of the century, decreasing ET (resulting
from higher CO2 concentrations limiting leaf conductance).
Climate Scenarios
Climate Scenarios
Future Climate Data
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
mm/yr
Precipitation
HADCM a1fi
HADCM3-b1
CCSM-A1Fi
CCSM-B1
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
degreesC
Temperature
HADCM a1fi
HADCM3-b1
CCSM-A1Fi
CCSM-B1
Future climate data from two models, the UK Meteorological Office
Hadley Centre (HadCM3) and the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (CCSM), each under two scenarios (A1fi – high CO2, B1 –
moderate CO2), were downscaled and organized by Hayhoe, et al. (2010).
The modeling team is feeding that data into SWAT, AFINCH, and PAWS to
simulate future changes in hydrology in the study area.
AFINCH
AFINCH (Analysis of Flows IN CHannels) is a stepwise regression model
used to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based upon
geospatial-climate and land cover data in combination with available
stream flow and water-use data. Monthly water-use data are employed
to adjust monthly measured flows at gages downstream from flow lines
of documented withdrawals or augmentations. The resulting long-term
time series can be used to describe monthly flow duration
characteristics and trends.
Climate Scenarios
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
AverageAnnualFlow(cfs)
Year
Prairie River Stream Flow
HADCM3-b1
HADCM3-A1Fi
CCSM-b1
CCSM-A1Fi
Decision Support System
Ground Water Recharge in the Prairie River Watershed
(HadCM3 – A1Fi 2050-2059)
PAWS + CLM
The Process-based Adaptive Watershed Simulator and Community Land
Model (PAWS+CLM) uses a structured finite-volume grid to solve the
governing partial differential equations for different hydrologic units (e.g.
Richards equation for the vadose zone, Darcy’s equation for groundwater,
diffusive wave equation for overland flow etc.). The model performance
was evaluated by multiple datasets, e.g. river discharge, groundwater head
and evapotranspiration.
Evapotranspiration in
the Prairie River Watershed
Obs. vs. Sim. Ground Water Head
in the Prairie River Watershed
Feeds
Design
Input
Dissemination
Display Layer
The outputs from the hydrological models will be fed into an on-line decision support system (DSS) where users can view water
resource maps of the study area under varying climate conditions and time periods, conduct field-scale analyses, and evaluate the
potential impacts of a best management practice (BMP) under those conditions.
Outreach
The outreach team has been networking with water users,
farmers, and water-related organizations in the region to recruit
prospective users of the DSS; and will empower them by
promoting use of the DSS and conducting local trainings.
Stakeholders
- Farmers
- Municipalities
- Watershed groups
- Local Conservation
Districts
- Federal and State
Regulators
- University Extension
Professionals
- Well-drillers
Surveys
A team of social scientists is conducting interviews and
administering surveys among stakeholders in the region to
discern the key socioeconomic drivers of ground water
management decisions, and identify the key functional
needs of prospective DSS users. Interviews have been
conducted with farmers, conservation organization
representatives, and others, including municipal water and
community officials.
Authors: Glenn O’Neil1, A. Jeremiah Asher1, Jason Piwarski1, Phanikumar Mantha2, James Duncan1, Jon Bartholic1, Stephen Gasteyer3.
1. Institute of Water Research, 2. Civil and Environmental Engineering, . Sociology Social Science; Michigan State University; Michigan.