The presentation is based on a literature review regarding some common foresight methods. Furthermore, an innovation management perspective is taken to analyze potential contributions of foresight methods, thereby considering also e.g. psychological biases.

1. AIT Austrian Institute of Technology
Djordje Pinter
Applications, Limitations and Effects of Corporate Foresight
Methods – Towards an Evaluation Framework for
Innovation Management
XXIV ISPIM Conference,
Helsinki, Finland: 16-19 June 2013

2. Corporate Foresight – Definition and Research Objectives
Corporate foresight is a function (e.g. Slaughter 1998), process (e.g. Reger
2001) or capability (e.g. Major et al. 2001) enabling firms to adapt and
innovate by assessing weak signals using specific methods.
Definition
• Lacks a framework for evaluating methods (corporate setting)
• Lacks consideration of human cognition and psychology
• Lacks adaptation to innovation management stages
2
Research

3. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management
• Uncertainty avoidance
• Identifying weak signals for disruptions
• Identifying market developments and niche emergence
• Improving portfolio management
• Fostering creativity
• Giving prospective and framing
• Evaluating opportunities and solutions during earliest stages
• Reinforcing learning processes
Benefits for Innovation Management
3

4. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –
Aligning Models
Screening Interpretation
& Creation
Response
SCREENING &
IDEA GENERATION
SELECTION
DEVELOPMENT
& TESTING
COMMERCIALI-
SATION & LAUNCH
Identification of customer needs,
risks, new technologies &
competitive intelligence
Commitment, internal
& external
communication
Evaluation, options, solutions,
adaption of existing projects
Identification CommunicationLearning
Organizational
learning
processes
4

5. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –
Evaluation Criteria
5
1. Creativity:
• Fostering ideas, visioning etc.
2. Information processing capability:
• Amount of variables, type of linkages, interactions etc.
3. Complexity absorption:
• Ability for technology assessment, capturing dynamics of systems etc.
4. Execution:
• Simplicity of execution, stimulation of learning, tacit to explicit
knowledge transformation capability etc.
5. Robustness and sensitivity:
• Sensitivity to information input, sensitivity to cognition and group
biases etc.
6. Acceptance:
• Degree of participation, communicability of results etc.

6. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –
Methods Review I
 Anonymity of responses
 Controlled feedback
 Enhancing capabilities with
complex problems reduces group
biases, but still e.g. confirmation
biases
 Creativity is limited (“reinforced
ideas“)
 Execution process: time
consuming & discrete black box
 Information interplay is limited
 Room for creative interplay
 Improves decision-making
 Overcoming overconfidence and
tunnel vision
 Easily communicable
 Suitable for long term analysis
 Several group and cognition
biases in play
 Prone to influences
 Very limited information
processing capacity
Scenario Delphi
6

7. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –
Methods Review II
 High information processing
capability (unbiased)
 Absorb complexity and dynamics
 Transparency of mental models
 Enhances organizational learning
 Risk of resource intensity
 Trade-of: participation vs.
execution
 Scepticism towards quantitative
modelling hinders acceptance
 Excellent possibility of
participation
 Acceptance of results
 Structures innovation processes
 Increases competitive power
• Focus on execution
 Creative room is limited
 Linear relationship model
(predominant)
 Limited information processing
Roadmaps Simulations
7

8. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –
Exemplified Evaluation
Roadmapping
Scenario
Delphi
Simulations0
1
2
3
4
5
Roadmapping
Scenario
Delphi
Simulations
8

9. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –
Conclusion and Suggestion
SCREENING
IDEA GENERATION
& SELECTION
DEVELOPMENT
& TESTING
COMMERCIALI-
SATION & LAUNCH
Delphi technique
Scenarios
Simulations
Roadmaps
o
t
h
e
r
o
t
h
e
r
9
Combining methods enhances potential benefits for innovation management

10. AIT Austrian Institute of Technology
your ingenious partner
Djordje Pinter
Austrian Institute of Technology
Foresight & Policy Development
Djordje.pinter.fl@ait.ac.at