Arup is an independent firm of designers, planners, engineers, and consultants that offers professional services. It conducts research on drivers of change and holds futures workshops to engage stakeholders in discussions about challenges and opportunities in various industries in the future. Some of its research projects and workshops examine topics like the future of retail, transportation, infrastructure, and more.

1. thinking like a futurist DUNCAN WILSON, ARUP AMPLIFIED LEICESTER CURVE, 12.11.09

3. Arup is no ordinary firm We are an independent firm of designers, planners, engineers, consultants and technical specialists offering a broad range of professional services. Through our work, we make a positive difference in the world. We shape a better world

7. Will Pryce

8. Our Clients Business Leaders STEEP Drivers Design Necessity DTX Leaders Our Staff Arup Fellows HEI Approach National Funding Research Champs Drivers of Change Research Roadmap DTF Projects On Project IP Executive Business as Usual NEXT 3-10 yrs NEW 1-3 yrs NOW < 1 yr ecosystem PULL PUSH Skills Networks Arup Projects In-house Training Papers & Press

12. gut + heart + head working assumption I

13. working assumption II no ONE has the key

14. working assumption III emergence WWW2.0

15. working assumption IV only humans make boxes

16. working assumption V we must all share ONE PLANET

17. change is constant; context is variable. working assumption VI

20. Bloc Islands Re-globalisation Global Yo-Yo Flat Line Bloc Islands GLOBAL GOVERNANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH Official futures

21. a global view

22. What are the key external driving forces that will be important for the next 20 years? STEEP Drivers S ocial T echnological Ec onomic En vironmental P olitical disaggregate prioritize re-aggregate

23. S ocial T echnological E c onomic E n vironmental P olitical Demographic Change Convergence ChIndia Resource Depletion Lack of Vision/Leadership www.driversofchange.com

24. Foresight Feed Blog Team members upload their latest observations, research and events. drivers of change exhibitions Traveling series of exhibitions featuring the drivers of change research including London, Tokyo, etc. (need image)

28. A few THOUGHTS some of the trends and themes we think are important

29. “ The Urban population [in China] is to reach 1.12 billion by 2050; this is a shift of more than 600 million people from rural to urban.” Guangming Daily Urbanisation

30. demographic change uncomfortably predictable Urban More Developed Rural More Developed Rural Less Developed Urban Less Developed Source: United Nations Population Information Network The current addition of 60 million new urban citizens annually is the equivalent of adding another Paris, Beijing, or Cairo…….. every other month demographic change

31. RESOURCE DEPLETION : ENERGY

32. the energy / wealth ladder Source: IMF, BP +$25k/capita : little extra energy needed +$15k/capita : services start to dominate growth +$5k/capita : industrialisation and mobility take off +$10k/capita : industrialisation near complete Korea Thailand Brazil Mexico India China GJ/capita GDP/capita (‘000 1997$ PPP) Japan EU Australia US 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

33. 12 Nov 2009 ageing population the number of people aged 60 will triple by 2050. Who will work for you?

34. Single-person households make up one-third of all households in Western Europe

35. the merging of sciences and other disciplines the combination of sectors to create new business the convergence of technology

43. how independent is your thinking given that you work for Arup? - Tony 'without the past there is no present, without the present there is no future' so where does the moment go? - Ian It takes me all of my time to get through the moment without spending a lot of time contemplating the future. Maybe because I have struggled to bring up six kids on my own. Nancy what is true innovation? how do you know that what you come up with, makes futures better? instinct, research or good old fashioned guesswork? Farhana Its a bit like financiers trading in futures. Sarah In developing a clear vision for the future, how do you avoid what are often called &quot;unforseen consequences” – Ross become a clairvoyant!!! Or else, meditate, increase your creative ability and strengthen your intuition! Ishi communities in the future, will they be based more around the network or geographical presence? mike &quot;Arup think about shaping a better world&quot; How do you determine a better future? What parameters would you use to test it? mike do arup actually look to the past? or is that too obvious? Ian

46. http://blogs.driversofchange.com/emtech/ http://blogs.driversofchange.com/doc/convergence/