Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and started declining. There was another peak on 18th August of 1099 which has held till now. Plateauing is established. Sharp declines are yet to be seen. Assuming the 18th August peak holds, the following predictions may follow: A decline in the 7 DMA in the next 2 weeks by 10 – 30 deaths/day Decline in daily deaths to 50% of peak level in November

1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 7
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 31.08.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/

2. Key Highlights
• Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and started declining. There
was another peak on 18th August of 1099 which has held till now.
• Plateauing in deaths/day is established. Sharp declines are yet to be
seen.
• The most critical state, Maharashtra, is now clearly declining.

3. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India
• Second stage of predictions:
• Short term (2 week) forecast
• Forecast by when deaths/day will reach 50% of peak levels (550)
• Discussion

4. All India Data

5. • Testing has been ramped
up to over 900,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
stable at around 8%.
• This means that India is
now testing enough as per
international norms (10%
positivity rate). However,
State Wise variations are
quite significant.
• The Antigen test now
accounts for close to 70%
of total tests being
conducted. Since there
could a need for multiple
tests on the same patient,
a direct correlation
between tests and persons
infected is weak.
We will continue to use Deaths, not Cases as the main parameter for analysis and
forecasting

6. • We are recording over
78,000 new infections/day
with a doubling rate of 36
days. This has slowed
down. Cumulative
infections stand at
36,87,939 on 31.08.20

7. • Cum Infections = Cum
Recoveries + Cum Deaths
• With increased testing,
discovered infections are
increasing. Most of these are
mild cases that do not require
hospitalisation.
• Healthcare facilities in the major
cities are not overburdened.

8. • The death rate trend is steadily
declining. At present it is 1.77%.
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.

9. Phase Wise Model

10. Phases Definition
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Decline in
Deaths/Day
commencing
from
Jun 2020 July 2020 1 Aug – 18 Aug 19 Aug – 25 Aug After 26 Aug or
not started yet
Places Ahmedabad,
Mumbai, Delhi
Chennai
Bangalore,
Haryana, Rest of
Gujarat
Kolkata,
Telengana, Rest
of Tamil Nadu,
Odisha,
Rajasthan ,
Bihar, Rest of
Maharashtra
UP, AP, Kerala,
Rest of West
Bengal
Rest of
Karnataka J&K,
Rest of India,
Punjab, MP
% to India
Population
4% 7% 26% 30% 33%

11. Cum Deaths Deaths/Mn % to Pop
Population at Peak Date at Peak
Ahmedabad 72,14,225 968 5.06.20 134.18 0.60%
Delhi 1,28,77,470 1,214 12.06.20 94.27 1.06%
Mumbai 1,64,34,386 3,561 20.06.20 216.68 1.36%
Chennai 65,60,242 773 27.06.20 117.83 0.54%
Total Phase 1 4,30,86,323 6,516 20.06.20 151.23 3.56%
Bangalore 84,43,675 582 17.07.20 68.93 0.70%
Haryana 2,53,53,081 344 18.07.20 13.57 2.09%
Rest of Gujarat 5,31,69,403 643 21.07.20 12.09 4.39%
Total Phase 2 8,69,66,159 1,569 18.04 7.19%
Kolkata 1,32,05,697 887 6.08.20 67.17 1.09%
Telengana 3,52,86,757 615 8.08.20 17.43 2.92%
Rest of TN 6,55,78,716 2,628 9.08.20 40.07 5.42%
Odisha 4,19,47,358 337 10.08.20 8.03 3.47%
Rajasthan 6,86,21,012 862 15.08.20 12.56 5.67%
Rest of Maharashtra 9,59,38,586 13,465 18.08.20 140.35 7.93%
Total Phase 3 32,05,78,126 18,794 18.08.20 58.63 26.49%
UP 19,98,12,341 2,733 20.08.20 13.68 16.51%
AP 4,93,86,799 3,189 22.08.20 64.57 4.08%
Kerala 3,33,87,677 224 23.08.20 6.71 2.76%
Rest of WB 7,81,42,039 1,620 23.08.20 20.73 6.46%
Total Phase 4 36,07,28,856 7,766 20.08.20 21.53 29.81%
Rest of Karnataka 5,26,87,029 3,126 26.08.20 59.33 4.35%
J&K 1,25,48,926 657 26.08.20 52.36 1.04%
Rest of India 23,32,96,202 26.08.20 - 19.28%
Punjab 2,77,04,236 1,404 30.08.20 50.68 2.29%
MP 7,25,97,565 1,374 30.08.20 18.93 6.00%
Total Phase 5 39,88,33,958 26.08.20 32.96%
All India 1,21,01,93,422 53,015 18.08.20 43.81 100.00%

12. • The initial cities to be affected have started declining
in June.
• Deaths/Mn at peak varies between 94 – 216 with an
average of 151. This is comparable to Italy (151) and
USA (138)
• Current 7 DMA is 74. This is expected to decline in
the next 2 weeks. Likely figure is 40.

13. • Phase 2 is less clearly defined than Phase 1. Decline
started in July 2020.
• Bangalore has had two peaks already and is heading
into a third. The secondary peak has been less than
the first.
• Gujarat and Haryana also started growing again.
• Current 7 DMA is 62. This may grow in the next 2
weeks. Likely figure is 70.

14. • This phase is driven by Rest of Tamil Nadu and Rest of
Maharashtra. Declining trends have started about 2
weeks ago.
• Maharashtra is finally showing a good decline. The
trend has to be watched for some more time.
• Current 7 DMA is 409. This is expected to decline
provided Maharashtra continues declining. Likely
figure in 2 weeks is 350.

15. • Declining trends are of very recent origin, hence need to
be watched further. UP and AP are still growing.
• Current 7 DMA is 204. This is expected to grow in the
next two weeks. Likely figure is 240.

16. • Declining trends have not yet been established in
these places.
• Current 7 DMA is 235. This is expected to grow in
the next two weeks. Likely figure is 270.

17. • At the national level, 7 DMA is at 984. This is
expected to decline in the next 2 weeks to 950

18. 2 Week Projections
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Total All India
7 DMA on
31.08.20
74 62 409 204 235 984 984
7 DMA on
14.09.20
Projected
40 70 350 240 270 970 950
• The definition of the Phases is somewhat fluid. Places can move from one Phase to a higher Phase. Rest of
India can get further disaggregated.
• Directionally, a decline in the 7 DMA is expected from both the Phase wise and the All India Model in the
next 2 weeks.

19. Projection Model for India

20. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths When Decline Started When it reached 50% Days
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1 8 4.04.20 6
Thailand 29.04.20 3.04.20 42 0 4 9.04.20 6
Indonesia NA NA
Bangladesh 2.07.20 30.06.20 932 11 64 NA
Pakistan 14.07.20 20.06.20 1,151 25 153 10.07.20 20
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24 127 3.05.20 14
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41 158 29.04.20 15
Iran Wave 2 4.06.20 28.07.20 1,959 193 235 27.08.20 30
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151 921 20.04.20 23
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221 961 19.04.20 17
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263 1437 17.04.20 2
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45 309 30.04.15 15
Russia 11.05.20 29.05.20 1,517 63 232 14.08.20 76
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298 1166 8.05.20 18
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138 2748 22.05.20 31
Brazil 29.07.20 29.07.20 12,032 425 1554 30.08.20 32
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date Deaths/Day

21. Decline Projection
• Most countries have declined quite rapidly in deaths/day after the peak has
been reached.
• To reach 50% of the deaths/day from peak has taken between 15 – 80 days
with a median figure of about 30 days.
• Assuming that India has reached a peak of 1099 deaths per day on 18th
August (this is by no means firm yet), it is one of the last major countries to
do so. The chances are that the decline will also be slow.
• Based on this, India will likely see a figure of 50% deaths/day (550) only in
80 – 90 days in November.

22. Directions
• Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and started declining. There
was another peak on 18th August of 1099 which has held till now.
• Plateauing is established. Sharp declines are yet to be seen.
• Assuming the 18th August peak holds, the following predictions may
follow:
• A decline in the 7 DMA in the next 2 weeks by 10 – 30 deaths/day
• Decline in daily deaths to 50% of peak level in November

23. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.