Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most hotspots. The infection is slowly spreading in other states.

1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 3
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 5.07.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/

2. Key Highlights
• Deaths/day are slowing down gradually. The trend is visible in most
hotspots.
• The infection is slowly spreading in other states.

3. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins

4. All India Data

5. • Testing has been ramped
up to over 240,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
close to 10%.
• The % positive rate is
showing signs of stabilizing,
but no decline is visible yet.
(Sunday testing is always
low and test results come
in with a lag)
• This indicates that the
infection has spread wider
than the testing net.

6. • We are recording over
23,000 new infections/day
with a doubling rate of 20
days. Cumulative infections
stand at 673,876 on
5.07.20
• However, new infections
being discovered are a
function of how many tests
are being done. The real no
of infections is probably far
higher than what is being
discovered.
• IMPORTANT – Infections
are therefore not a reliable
indicator for forecasting
future trends. We will
focus on deaths as the key
parameter for forecasting.

7. • Cumulative deaths are 19,700 as of 5.07.20
• The polynomial line of best fit is forming a crest as we
will see later.
• The doubling rate is slowing.
• Daily deaths are slowing down
• Maharashtra figures are soft as they keep adjusting
previous period deaths almost every day. This accounts
for some sudden peaks. However, the trend is flattening.

8. • Cum Infections = Cum
Recoveries + Cum Deaths
• Recoveries have been showing
an encouraging trend. However
the Recovery Rate is not a
useful parameter. Eventually,
the recovery rate should reach
97%.
• Active Infections are still
growing, leading to additional
burden on the healthcare
system.

9. • The death rate trend has been
distorted by the addition of backlog
deaths on 16th June. However, the
trend is getting back to normal. At
present it is around 2.82% vs 2.8%
prior to June 16th.
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.
• India’s death rate is lower than all
major countries.

10. Hot Spots Data

11. • Mumbai has been the worst
affected by Covid 19 followed
by Delhi and Ahmedabad.
• Chennai cases are very high
with a relatively better death
rate. This may be due to
aggressive testing.
• The disease has still not
significantly penetrated
outside the major hot spots
though it is slowly spreading.
• Is it possible that social
distancing and other control
measures can be more
effectively implemented in
small towns/rural areas? This
may lead to earlier peaking
out.

13. • The charts show weekly growth rates in deaths/million for key cities that were impacted
• Apart from Kolkata where the death figures are already at a lower level, all cities are showing a decline in the weekly
growth rates of deaths/million

14. • Maharashtra figures for deaths are being revised frequently. Past period
adjustments are disturbing the trend.
• Bihar is growing on a small base. After being flat for some time, UP is also
trending upwards. If not controlled immediately, these states could make
matters far worse for the pandemic.
• Haryana is coming under control along with Delhi.

15. Projection Model for India

16. Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.

17. Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.

18. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date

19. Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters
emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow
recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other
neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of
infections happening in Iran but it may be due to enhanced testing as deaths/day continue to decline.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc
are continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.

20. Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
• May 24th Presentation – Projected date for decline in deaths/day was First Half of July 2020 based on a
doubling rate of deaths per day of 13 days.
• 1st Update on 7th June – Projected date was pushed back to Second Half of July 2020 as the doubling rate
had slowed to 17 days.
• 2nd Update on 21st June – Appeared that decline may start soon as the growth in death rates had slowed
further.

21. Mathematical Projections - Alternative
Parameters
• Cumulative Deaths
• Daily Deaths 7 DMA
• Day on Day Deaths Growth Rate
• Daily Deaths/Active Infections
• Cum Deaths vs Active Infections/Cum Infections

22. • The Cumulative Deaths
curve polynomial line
of best fit is showing a
crest forming. R Square
value is very high
indicating a good fit for
the projection.
• This is projected to
happen on 19th July
when the cumulative
deaths are at 22,500

23. • Daily deaths are
expected to peak on
12th July when the 7
DMA is at 450
• R Square Value is
also good indicating
a good fit for the
projection

24. • The Growth in day on day
deaths has been showing a
declining trend.
• Daily deaths are slated to
stop growing as per this
trend line by 8th July.
• However, the R square
value is low and hence this
forecast should be viewed
with caution.

25. • Daily deaths as a
percentage of active
infections is another
parameter we have been
tracking.
• This ratio is projected to
reach zero on 30th July
indicating that deaths will
stop.
• This is a drastic projection
and needs to be viewed
with caution especially as
the R Square value is low

26. • As cumulative deaths start becoming constant, with
active infections decreasing this curve should start
trending downwards.
• The last week has seen the first signs of this
happening.
• As cumulative deaths and infections start
becoming constant, this curve should start
becoming flat.
• This had started happening before the anomaly
on 16th June. After that it is again decreasing but
is not showing signs of flattening yet.

27. Day of Decline Start Cum Deaths on that Day Forecast Reliability (R Square)
Correlative Forecast
24th May First Half of July 35,000
7th June Second Half of July 35,000
21st June End June 18,000
Mathematical Projections 7th
July
Cumulative Deaths 19th July 22,500 Very High
Daily Deaths 7 DMA 12th July 22,000 Very High
Day on Day Deaths Growth
Rate
18th June 12,500 Very Low
Daily Deaths/Active Infections 21st June 12,500 Low

28. Directions
• The last two weeks have seen a general flattening of the death curve. The worst affected
state, Maharashtra, continues to adjust previous period deaths leading to some softness
in the figures. Hopefully, we will not see another anomaly.
• The return of migrant workers to their home states have still not led to a spurt in deaths
in UP and Bihar though the trends are going up.
• Increased testing is leading to a larger discovery of cases. However as discussed earlier
this has little bearing on the progression of the pandemic.
• Based on current trends, we can expect a decline in deaths per day to start around the
15 – 20th of July when the cumulative deaths stand at 22,000 – 23,000. The date is in line
with our initial estimates, but the death toll is significantly less. The major risk is that the
rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been
expressed by Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.

29. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.