1. ‘INDIA CAN TOP CHINA’S GROWTH BY 2014’FINANCIAL EXPRESS: 5th JAN 2010 BY: KaushikBasu (chief economic advisor in the finance ministry) Group Members: Archit Singh (91127) Ayushman Roy (91128) Chandra Vikas (91129) Deepanshu (91130) Dinesh Joshi (91131) Gaurav Seth (91132)
2. Major aspects of the article The economy bouncing back to 9% growth next fiscal. India crossing China’s growth rate in the next four to five years is not impossibility. India’s relatively large young population will help raise its savings rate to over 40% of GDP from 38%, thereby hastening growth.
3. Major aspects of the article The economy will grow at 7.5% plus in the current fiscal on the back of the stronger growth projected in the fourth quarter. A very sector-specific inflation that is taking place, and it is expected to peter out in a few months. India does stand out as an economy that has handled the crisis very well.
4. The economy bouncing back to 9% growth next fiscal Share Market has risen again from its fall to 8000 units in early 2009. Demand in Global market will increase in next fiscal year Poor states have also started catching up with growing states. For example Bihar
5. India crossing China’s growth rate in the next four to five years is not impossibility China’s export-oriented model may erode sharply. India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. India is learning English at an impeccable pace and will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world overtaking the U.S.
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7. India has already gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others. Labor unrest brewing in China over working conditions. IMPACT: This will take India’s GDP growth to 10% by 2014, while China’s growth will dip to 7-8%. Contd…
8. 45 % of total population 0-14, China 40 0-14, India over 65, China 35 over 65, India 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Demographic Divide
9. Factors Demographic shifts have powerful effects on the saving rates of both countries Saving rate rises with income level Saving rate rises with higher growth
10. India Handled Crisis Well World Bank said India has done ‘extraordinarily well’ in tackling the global economic crisis with sound fiscal and monetary policies. India's growth rates over the next one or two years could see a return to 8 to 9 per cent envisaged in the country's eleventh plan and its strong fiscal and monetary policies have helped counteract a decline in exports. India is now a rising economic power that handled the recent economic crisis very well.
11. India Handled Crisis Well It's contributing to world economic stability and could become the pole of global economic growth over the time. It has become global partner for the world bank group. High savings rate will trigger a period of sustained economic expansion. India does stand out as an economy that has handled the crisis very well.
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13. Median age in India will rise from 25 in 2010 to 30 in 2025, while in China it will rise from 34 to 39
China Labor Watch, a New York-based non-profit watchdog group, issued a report stating that several Chinese suppliers to Wal-Mart routinely fail to pay wages and provide health insurance as required by Chinese law. The survey of 16 Wal-Mart suppliers found that some pay as little as half the minimum daily wage, provide no health insurance or require mandatory overtime. One company provided only one bathroom for its 2,000 employees, the group said.
