North American Oil & Gas- Supply, Demand & Export Outlook

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Supply, Demand, and Export Outlook for North American Oil and Gas
For
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 | Houston, TX
By
Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator

2. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by improving energy efficiency
2
U.S. primary energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
history
projections
2012
37%
18%
27%
8%
8%
1%
nuclear
oil and other liquids
natural gas
coal
renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)
34%
19%
28%
8%
9%
2%
liquid biofuels
Shares of total U.S. energy
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014

3. Challenges in understanding U.S. transportation fuel use
3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and income indices
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
VMT per capita
personal disposable income per capita
mean household income
1995 = 1.0
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014

4. The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources
4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Eagle Ford (TX)
Bakken (MT & ND)
Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)
Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)
Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)
Delaware (TX & NM Permian)
Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)
Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)
Haynesville
Utica (OH, PA & WV)
Marcellus
Woodford (OK)
Granite Wash (OK & TX)
Austin Chalk (LA & TX)
Monterey (CA)
U.S. tight oil production
million barrels of oil per day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Marcellus (PA & WV)
Haynesville (LA & TX)
Eagle Ford (TX)
Fayetteville (AR)
Barnett (TX)
Woodford (OK)
Bakken (ND)
Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)
Utica (OH, PA & WV)
Rest of US 'shale'
U.S. dry shale gas production
billion cubic feet per day
Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through July 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014

5. U.S. rail carloads of crude oil and petroleum products exceed 1.5 million b/d in 2014
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
number of rail carloads per week
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Association of American Railroads
million barrels per day

6. U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future
6
U.S. dry natural gas
trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
projections
history
2012
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net exports
100
75
50
25
0
-25
billion cubic feet per day

7. U.S. petroleum product net exports
million barrels per day
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and Short Term Energy Outlook
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 7
U.S. is already a major net exporter of petroleum products
2015(e)

8. U.S. exports of petroleum products to Mexico and Canada have more than doubled and tripled, respectively, since 2004
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Canada
Mexico
U.S. petroleum products exports
thousand barrels per day
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly
Jan-Feb

9. Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 9
North American net imports of oil and natural gas
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014

10. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
High Oil and Gas Resource
U.S. crude oil production exceeds 13 million b/d in High Oil and Gas Resource case
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 10
U.S. crude oil production in three cases
million barrels per day
2012
history
projections
Reference
Low Oil and Gas Resource
U.S. maximum production level:
9.6 million barrels/day (1970)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case, High Oil and Gas Resource case, and Low Oil and
Gas Resource case

11. 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-2012
Jul-2012
Jan-2013
Jul-2013
Jan-2014
Jul-2014
Other Non-OPEC
Syria
Sudan / S. Sudan
Iraq
Nigeria
Libya
Iran
U.S. oil production growth helping to offset unplanned outages
11
estimated unplanned crude oil production outages
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2014
*monthly production delta versus Jan. 2011 production level
Non-
OPEC
OPEC
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014
U.S. Production growth*

12. Most of the growth in production between 2011 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
API 50+
API 40-50
API 35-40
API 27-35
API below 27
U.S. crude oil production by type
million barrels of oil per day
Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 12
forecast
history

13. mixed hydrocarbon wells
(gas, condensate, oil)
dry gas
(exportable with
order/authorization)
crude oil / lease condensate
(exportable under limited conditions)
wet gas
EIA Refinery Survey
plant
condensate
splitter
complex
distillation
stabilizer
finished product streams
processed products for domestic use or exportable without license
finished petroleum products and other processed hydrocarbon liquids
separation via temperature gradients
water
separation via pressure changes
field / lease separator
flash drum
heater treater
Distillation processes and resulting products
Energy Infrastructure Summit September 15, 2014
13
other
processed
gas liquids
fractionator separator
gas processing plant
processed
condensate

14. For more information
Energy Infrastructure Summit
September 15, 2014 14
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/