International Energy Outlook

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
International Energy Outlook 2014
For
Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy
September 22, 2014 | Washington, D.C.
By
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
U.S. Energy Information Administration

2. Key takeaways
•
IEO 2014 examines long-term global petroleum and other liquid fuels markets in this shortened IEO release
•
IEO2015 will return to full version
•
Three price scenarios examine a range of potential interactions of supply, demand, and prices in world liquids markets
•
The potential for tight/shale oil outside of the United States could add 3MMb/d by 2025
•
EIA’s projection of Mexican oil production has risen in light of recent legislative changes
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3. Results from the IEO2014 Reference case
•
World petroleum and other liquid fuels use increases by 38% between 2010 and 2040, all in the non-OECD
•
Developing Asia (including China and India) and the Middle East account for 85% of the increase
•
Increased demand requires 33 MMbbl/d of additional liquid fuels supplies to reach 119 MMb/d by 2040
–
OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 14 MMbbl/d
–
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 10 MMbbl/d
•
Other liquid supplies (from NGPL, biofuels, CTL, GTL, and refinery gain) grow in importance, supplying 17% of total liquids production by 2040
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4. The IEO2014 uses the same price paths as the AEO2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
North Sea Brent crude oil spot price
2012 dollars per barrel
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014
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projections
history
2012
High Oil Price
Reference
Low Oil Price

5. All of the growth in liquid fuels consumption occurs in the emerging non-OECD nations
0
30
60
90
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, 1990-2040
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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projections
history
2010
OECD
Non-OECD

6. Non-OECD Asia and the Middle East account for 85% of the world’s growth in liquids consumption over the projection
0
20
40
60
80
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Europe and Eurasia
Central and South America
Africa
Middle East
Other Asia
China
non-OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, Reference case, 1990-2040
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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projections
history

7. China, India, and the Middle East lead liquids demand growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
China
India
Middle East
United
States
OECD
Europe
Japan
2010
2025
2040
liquid fuels consumption, Reference case
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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select OECD
select non-OECD

8. China’s use of liquid fuels exceeds the United States by 2035
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
liquid fuels consumption in China and the United States, Reference case
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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projections
history
2010
United States
China

9. Middle East use of liquids in the electric power sector declines, but still accounts for 12% of total consumption in 2040
0
3
6
9
12
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Middle East liquid fuels consumption by end-use sector
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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Transportation
Industrial
Electric Power
Other

10. 0
25
50
75
100
125
Demand Supply
Low Oil Price case
(low non-OECD demand)
Demand Supply
Reference case
Demand Supply
High Oil Price case
(high non-OECD demand)
Non-OECD
OECD
Supply composition changes more than demand across cases
liquids consumption and production in three price cases, 2040
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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Other Liquids
Non-OPEC
crude and lease
condensate
OPEC crude and
lease condensate

11. Over the projection, OPEC crude and lease condensate suppliers produce an additional 14 MMbbl/d
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
OPEC crude and lease condensate
non-OPEC crude and lease condensate
other liquid fuels
petroleum and other liquid fuels production, Reference case
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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projections
history
43
33
12
53
46
20

12. Future growth in OPEC crude and lease condensate production is centered in the Middle East
0
7
14
21
28
35
Middle East
North Africa
West Africa
South America
2010
2025
2040
OPEC crude and lease condensate production by region, Reference case
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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13. Most significant contributors to non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production: Canada, Brazil, U.S., Kazakhstan, Russia
0
6
12
18
24
Canada
United States
Mexico
Brazil
Kazakhstan
Russia
Other
2010
2025
2040
non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production, Reference case
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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14. We are cautiously optimistic in our revised Mexican liquids production outlook given the legislative changes underway
0
1
2
3
4
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
IEO2014
IEO2013
Mexican liquid fuels production, IEO2014 and IEO2013
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, IEO2014 and IEO2013
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15. NGPL and biofuels account for most of the other liquid fuels
0
3
6
9
12
15
Gas-to-liquids
Coal-to-liquids
Biofuels
Natural gas plant liquids
2010
2025
2040
world production of selected other liquid fuels, Reference case
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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16. EIA Reference scenario shows world tight oil production increasing to almost 8 million b/d in 2025
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
tight oil production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 and International Energy Outlook 2014
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projections
history
2012
U.S. (AEO2014 & IEO2014 Reference case)
World (IEO2014 Reference case)

17. Tight oil production will spread to nations outside of the United States and Canada over the projection
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
United States
Canada
Mexico
Russia
Argentina
China
Rest of world
2010
2025
2040
tight oil production, Reference case
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014
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2.9 MMbbl/d in 2013
3.9 MMbbl/d in 2014 (STEO)
AEO2014 High Resource case
5.0 MMbbl/d in 2015 (STEO)

18. While the outlook for total liquids production is similar with IEA and OPEC, there are different perspectives on sources of supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
EIA
IEO
IEA
WEO CP
OPEC
WOO
EIA
IEO
IEA
WEO CP
OPEC
WOO
Other liquid fuels
Crude and lease condensate
petroleum and other liquid fuels production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case; IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 Current Policies scenario; OPEC World Oil Outlook 2013 Reference case
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2012
2035

19. Areas of uncertainty in the outlook
•
China’s energy demand growth; particularly in transportation
–
EIA is working with MIT and others to upgrade the structural and macroeconomic determinates of transportation demand in all regions for IEO2015
•
Increasing global trade of natural gas and HGL in addition to oil
–
EIA is integrating the representation of oil and natural gas supply and other hydrocarbons
•
Global development of tight oil and shale gas resources
–
EIA is gathering geology and production information, and conducting outreach
•
Impact of geopolitical tensions on energy supply
–
EIA exploring options for representing these uncertainties in the outlook
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20. For more information
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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/