Dr Dev Kambhampati | FY 2014 US Agricultural Trade Forecasts- USDA

1. FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts
Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion
Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion
Surplus $6.4 billion to $39.0 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
Released on May 29, 3:00 PM EST
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

2. U.S. Agricultural Trade
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12 14(f)
Billion$
39.0
Exports
Imports
Trade Surplus
Records
137.4
110.5
42.9
149.5

3. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Grains and
Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock,
Poultry, and
Dairy
Cotton Horticultural
Products
Billion$
FY 2014 ForecastsFebruary
May
+$4.5 Billion +$0.6 Billion -$0.4 Billion
May vs. February Commodity Forecasts
Large gains in grains and oilseeds; slight reduction in
horticultural products
+$2.4 Billion
No change

4. Record volume for soybeans and feeds; Corn
volume rebounds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2012 2013 2014f
MillionTons
Overall volume up 31% from FY13
Other*
Soybeans
Feeds
Wheat
Coarse
Grains
170 mmt166 mmt
*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco
146 mmt
130 mmt

5. Record Forecast for Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Billion$
Overall Forecast up $0.7 Billion from FY 2013
Other
Dairy
Beef & veal
Hides & skins
Dairy, beef, and hides & skins each hit historical highs

6. Top 10 U.S. Markets in FY2014
0 10 20 30
Philippines
Indonesia
Taiwan
HK
S. Korea
EU
Japan
Mexico
Canada
China
Billion $
Record
Half of top markets forecast to hit records

7. Soybeans and Feeds Drive Higher U.S. Exports to China
0
7
14
21
Oct-Mar FY13 Oct-Mar FY14
Billion$
U.S. Exports to China In First Half of Fiscal Year
Other
Feeds & fodders
Grains
Meat & poultry
Cotton
Soybeans
$11.7 B $14.1 B

8. Exports Up to China, SE Asia, EU, & S. America
Change in FY 2014 Exports from February Forecast
+$1.5 bil
+$3.5 bil
+$900 mil
+$900 mil
-$200 mil
+$200 mil
+$200 mil

9. Total $0.5 billion at a record of 110.5 billion
Tropical Products $1.0 billion – lower prices for coffee and rubber
Horticultural Products $0.2 billion – lower volume of wine
Grain and Oilseeds $1.7 billion – record wheat and soybean imports
Livestock & Dairy $0.1 billion – higher swine, beef, and pork imports
Other Imports $0.1 billion – mainly tobacco and planting seeds
FY 2014 Imports

10. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $35.8 Billion $4.5 Billion
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast
2014
Key Developments
Corn volume up sharply on rising global
demand and less competition from
Argentina
Wheat prices up on tight supplies and
deteriorating crop conditions
DDGS and sorghum up on record demand
from China
Wild Cards
Timing of South American corn shipments
Northern Hemisphere winter wheat
harvests
Wheat export policies in India and
Argentina
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

11. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $33.8 Billion $2.4 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2014
Key Developments
Soybean volume rises on record sales
to China
 Soybean meal volume up on stronger
demand
 Strong demand and tight U.S. supplies
boost soybean complex prices
Wild Cards
Argentina export activity
9
14
19
24
29
34
'02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast

12. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $32.2 Billion $600 Million
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2014
Key Developments
 Dairy higher on strong global demand
 Beef up mostly on unit values due to
robust global demand
 Poultry down on lower egg and egg
product shipments
 Pork edges lower on tighter
exportable supplies
Wild Cards
 PED impact
 Ongoing SPS trade issues
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast

13. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.4 Billion Unchanged
Export Outlook for Cotton
2014
Key Developments
 China demand slows
 Prices remain strong
Wild Cards
 Additional changes in China’s reserve
policy
 Cotton yarn demand in China
0
2
4
6
8
10
'02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast

14. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.1 Billion Down $400 million
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products
2014
Key Developments
 Tree nut growth lower as rising prices
weaken Chinese demand
 Fresh fruit and vegetables down on
lower volumes to Canada and Korea
Wild Card
 California Drought
10
15
20
25
30
35
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12 14f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Feb Forecast
May Forecast
Record