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The 2011 Prime Urban Report A Comprehensive Study of Boston’s Residential Market And Factors Which Impact Its Viability
2 2011 Prime – Urban Report Welcome to The 2011 Prime Urban Report Thomas Skahen, Co-Founder and Partner Janice Dumont, Co-Founder and Partner We are proud to release our 2011 Prime Urban Report.  We hope the report and topics are of interest to developers, architects, investors, brokers, and other real estate industry professionals.  Our intent was to drill down and look at Massachusetts, Boston, and specific residential developments currently under construction in the Boston marketplace. We hope you enjoy the 2011 Prime Urban Report and look forward to any comments or feedback you may have.             Join The Conversation!   PrimeTime is now on Facebook! Click to Become a Fan http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Littleton-MA/PrimeTime-Communities/428613020000?ref=ts DISCLOSURE:  While diligent attempts are made to ensure the accuracy of this report, the authors assume no liability for any errors or omissions.  Anyone relying on the information contained in this report should take all steps necessary to verify it for themselves.
2011 Prime – UrbanReport Why We Put This Report Together PrimeTime Communities – PASSION Many developers ask us why we undertake such a large research project such as The Prime - Urban Report.  The answer, although sometimes a little too simple, is passion.  The Prime - Urban Report, and its sisters, The Prime – Suburban Report and The Prime - 50 Plus Report, take an outstanding amount of time and dedication to produce.  Our team and contributors  share our passion for the development industry and its future.  We hope that our efforts help developers in their search for the best consultants, the best sales teams, and the best creative campaigns.  All resulting in successful future developments and the prosperity of our economy. 3
2010 Prime – Urban Report Contents Assessing the Massachusetts  Urban Market Part I.	Residential Review Part II.	Boston Community Profiles Part III.	PrimeTime Overview		 4
REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Residential Review What Goes Up? Thomas Skahen, Co-Founder and Partner PrimeTime Communities You know the song. “What goes up must come down, Spinning wheel got to go round,  Talking ‘bout your troubles it's a crying sin,  Ride a painted pony let the spinning wheel spin.” (Blood, Sweat, and Tears - 1969)  From a Boston new construction sales perspective we went up in 2006 , came down in 2007 and 2008, and spun our wheels in 2009.  That’s what it feels like anyway. 2010 will  be the beginning of the going up again!   In Massachusetts, single family home sales rose from 34,546 to 36,288 and condominium sales continued to slide down from 15,608 to 15,321 from 2008 to 2009.  For Boston, sales declined from 3,002 in 2008 to 2,482 in 2009. This was the fifth year of declines for the Boston condominium market.   Single family homes and condominium sales median prices continued to slide down from $310,000 to $290,000 for single family homes and $274,000 to $252,000  for condominium homes for the time period of 2008 to 2009.  For Boston, median sales prices actually decreased from $733,000 in 2008 to $602,000 in 2009.  For the same time period average sales prices in Boston went from $475,000 to $446,000 and have appeared to level off.  Average days on market for Massachusetts  single family homes and condominiums increased from 136 to 129 and 140 to 133 respectively.  This downward trend is an indication that it may start getting easier to sell a home.  For Boston, average days on market increased slightly from 91 in 2009 to 105 in 2009.     Will lack of supply create demand?   In Massachusetts, single family and condominium permits dropped from 4,764 to 4,094 and 3,994 to 2,053 respectively from 2008 to 2009.  In 2005 permits were 14,000 and 10,000 for single family homes and condominiums. In 2008 the permits were 513 and 2009 is projected to be only even less.  This is significantly lower than the last six years that we analyzed.      Listings continue to drop from the 2007 peak in Massachusetts from 20,122 to 17,350 for single family homes and 9,131 to 7,589 from 2008 to 2009 respectively.  For Boston, listings have leveled off from 1,064 to 1,044 for 2008 and 2009.  Another positive indicator that will eventually drive sales back up because of the lack of supply.   Overall, 2009 proved to be similar to 2008 in terms of price and sales declines.  The real estate market has worked hard over the last two plus years to correct itself.  As it relates to supply within the real estate market we’ve seen significant drops in inventory or listings and increases in average days on market to sell a home.  Both positive indicators that will eventually move prices and sales up.  We do need a rebound in employment before we will see a significant upturn in the real estate market. New condo developments in Boston that have clearly established market pricing and good end loan financing packages in place will realize a significant improvement in sales absorption in 2010. 5
2011 Prime – Urban Report Massachusetts MLS Sales Single family homes and condominium sales declined in 2010. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts MLS  Average Selling Prices The average sale price of condominiums and single family homes saw its first real increase in 2010 since 2006. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts MLS Average Days on Market The ADOM continued to decline for its second straight year for both single family homes and condominiums. 6 Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc.
2011 Prime – Urban Report 2010 Massachusetts MLS Sales by Month Single family homes and condominium sales declined sharply in July and continued to dip slightly until December. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts MLS  Average Selling Price by Month The average sale price of condominiums and single family homes peaks in July of 2010. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts Average Price Shift Single Family homes under $500k saw 6% drop in sales, while homes $500k and above saw at 16% increase in sales. 7 Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc.
2011 Prime – UrbanReport Massachusetts Monthly Absorption Trends Homes absorbed slightly below 2000 sales a month at the beginning of 2010 and peaked near 5200 sales in June. SOURCE: Massachusetts Association of Realtors Residential Permits Massachusetts Data Not Available Then number of residential permits being issued in Massachusetts has declined steadily since 2005, as builders are scaling back projects. Data Not Available Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Division of Manufacturing and Construction Massachusetts MLS Active Listings There are more single family homes and condominiums on the market in 2010, ending the two year decline in inventory. 8 Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc.
REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report New Condo Communities - Boston Thomas Skahen, Co-Founder and Partner PrimeTime Communities The stats highlighted above for Massachusetts and Boston were obtained from Multiple Listing Services , LINK, Mass. Association of Realtors, and U.S. Bureau of Census.   The intent of The 2010 Prime Urban Report is to uncover at a micro level what is really going on with new construction condominium communities in Boston for residential and commercial developers, institutional investors, banks, buyers, and others associated with the Boston real estate industry.  The approach includes utilizing MLS, Link, Book and Deed, and developer review to determine the most accurate sales data.  As we did last year, we have focused on actual sales per multiple sources to uncover the real yearly and monthly absorption (sales) trends within the Boston market.  We’ve been tracking new construction in Boston for three years now and have created an index to show exactly what’s going on with Boston new construction sales pace and how it compares to each of the developments.  We looked at the largest and most prominent new residential communities currently under construction in Boston and this is what we found:  Our study included 14 new construction residential communities consisting of 1,202 total units with 635 sold or 53 percent.  Of the 635 units sold, 83 were affordable and 551 were market rate sales.  This leaves us with only 567 new construction homes remaining in inventory as of year end 2009.  This is down from 626 new construction inventory homes in 2008 and is a  9 .5 percent drop.  If the Boston market monthly sales absorption per community increased to a more normal 3.0 sales per month for the 14 new construction communities or 36 per month in total, the 567 remaining units would be depleted in 15 months.   As we pointed out last year, Boston new construction supply is extremely low.  We will see a significant price increase in new construction inventory over the next few years as this inventory quickly diminishes and the job market begins to pick up.     So what does our urban new construction index tell us? For the 14 new construction communities we looked at, we determined that there were 149 sales in 2009 .  On average each of the communities sold 1.00 units per month (absorption).  In 2008 the average was 1.2.  The highest was 3.3 and the lowest was .2.   The decline represents a 14 percent drop in the monthly sales rate.    Developers have dropped prices, inventory is diminishing, and new construction home sales are still on the decline.   We love to look at what’s working and why.   The two highest absorption rates in Boston were The 1850 and The Bryant on Columbus with 3.3 and   9
2011 Prime – Urban Report 1.9 sales per month respectively in 2009.  Both were properties that were auctioned for all the right reasons.   The strategy was to let buyers set the new market value for the homes because, quite simply, developers don’t set value in this current real estate market.   At The 1850, it was the seller’s strategy to close out the property via an auction.  Approximately 39 homes sold in 2009, mostly due to the auction.   At The Bryant, the sellers utilized the auction strategy to reset the prices.  Their approach was to put 10 of the 50 total units up for auction, have the buyer market reset prices, and sell the remaining inventory conventionally.   They sold all 10 of the luxury homes with relatively good price points and continue to sell homes post auction.  The same strategy was even more successful in the suburbs.  The Nouvelle at Natick seller sold 50 of the 214 homes at auction, reset the prices for the remaining inventory, and achieved a 6.2 sales rate in 2009.  Post auction, 31 additional units were sold (with 8 more under agreement) making Nouvelle the fastest selling community in Massachusetts.    The auction strategy for a close out or a reset in pricing works.  It drives huge traffic to the site that otherwise would not have visited.  The buyer market just “gets” this process.  Even if they  don’t “get it” they understand pricing and will buy a well positioned and reasonably priced home.  10
2010 Data comes from Link year end report. Ready to drop in. 2011 Prime – Urban Report Boston Sales Sales volume continues to decline. SOURCE: Link Boston Boston Median  Selling Price Both the median and average price of a home sold in Boston declined in 2009. SOURCE: Link Boston Source: Link Boston Boston Sales Average Days on Market The ADOM increased in 2009. 11 SOURCE: Link Boston Source: Link Boston
Q4 2101 comes from LINK 2011 Prime – UrbanReport Boston Listings The number of listings has remained relatively flat compared to 2008. Source: Link Boston Residential Permits Boston Data Not Available Not Available Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Division of Manufacturing and Construction 12
2011 Prime – Urban Report Boston Sales Comparison by Number of Bedrooms Comes from Links 2010 Year End Report Source: Link Boston Source: Link Boston Boston Sales Comparison by Square Feet Comes from Links 2010 Year End Report 13 Source: Link Boston
2011 Prime – Urban Report Lifetime Sales Summary – New Construction Source: Based on public records as of 1.1.2011                    ,[object Object],14
2011 Prime – Urban Report Top Performers The Clarendon – 2010 Absorption 3.3 Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010. 15
2011 Prime – Urban Report Top Performers FP3 – 2010 Absorption 2.6 Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010. 16
2011 Prime – Urban Report 2010 Sales Summary – New Construction NOTES: 1. Market rate sales are sales of homes sold at full market value without subsidization from public sector entities such as  local governments, HUD, etc.; 2. "Absorption" measures the number of sales per month; 3. “Sales” refers to homes sales that were recorded by the Registry of Deeds by 12/31/2009;  17
2011 Prime – Urban Report “In 2008, new construction sales per month were 1.2 and dropped to 1.0 in 2009.  If we extrapolate the communities auctioned, the rate was .60 in 2009.  With the drop in both new construction and re-sale inventory, price adjustments, and low interest rates, this sales rate should begin to trend up in 2010.  Developers should continue to look for creative strategies to accelerate existing inventory.”  18
REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Streetwalking Gone Mainstream Anthony Longo, Founder & CEO, CondoDomain.com 2009 was quite the interesting year in Boston real estate (not to mention nationwide).  It was the year us techies have all been waiting for, however there are two sides to this story.   Good News First:  The once protected pool of information used for “decision making” in regards to real estate was finally released into our world-wide-web. While the National Association of Realtors spent years fighting against it, MLS data was never more easily accessible than in 2009.  (MLS stands for Multiple Listing Service) This sprouted the birth of hundreds of web-based real estate companies all gunning to create valuable online tools leveraging the newly available MLS and social media systems.   Enter web-savvy consumers who ate up these new tools and proved to be smarter homebuyers and sellers than ever seen before.  Because of the accessibility to information that was once only granted internally to a licensed broker and/or salesperson, consumers now had real and objective city, neighborhood and even individual property data.  They had easy access to available and sold listings comparables.  They had access to price changes, days on market and even tax information.   Most importantly, they had access to this data in real-time just like the brokers did creating a “new type of sales process”.   Homebuyers and sellers have never been more prepared and knowledgeable.   Savvy clients toured open houses with spreadsheets and printed notes for not just that property, but the five comparable properties down the street.  2009 was the year that consumers made the home buying and selling process more efficient and transparent.   The Bad News:   Not all data is created equally and not all buyers and sellers handled it responsibly.  Unfortunately, real estate has many variables and some of them have nothing to do with a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.  We have seen, on countless occasions, buyers and sellers misuse or misinterpret data that brought the buying and selling process to a standstill.   For example, if you compared home sales from 2008 to 2009 in downtown Boston you will see that decrease of 6% in overall transaction volume (3869 sales in 2009 vs 3636 units in 2008) and a decrease of 9% in average price ($452,918  in ’09 vs. $500,413 in ’08). One would generally assume they could get an 8-10% reduction of the listing price on anything in downtown Boston and that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Buyers and sellers must understand that value holds true on a very local and specific level in downtown metropolitans.  While the West End and Fenway may have seen steeper declines in 2009, the South End saw an increase in average sales prices. Obviously, for bargain hunters– South End was not a place for them to be.       19
2011 Prime – Urban Report The point I am trying to make is that it is an amazing feat that consumers now have access to detailed property information and there is no question it has made the process more efficient and, hopefully, more affordable at the same time. The necessity of a true “expert” real estate agent is still very much needed and important. The term “expert”, however, has been redefined over the past year because the average buyer has become smarter.   Jessica Quirk, our top producer and one of Boston’s top real estate agents, spent 2009  closing more than 40 purchases and touring more than 500 properties in the Boston area.   She knows value when she sees it and understands what makes the pricing in a particular neighborhood, street or even a building  fluctuate over time. She knows, better than anyone, how powerful data can be and that, along with her overall real estate knowledge, is why she is one of the top agents in Boston. Consumers are now armed with the information at their fingertips and this will only continue to grow in 2010 and beyond.  With more and more home shoppers on the web and as we have expanded our web footprint (www.CondoDomain.com) we can really get our arms around search analytics.  If our traffic patterns are any indication of what 2010 will look like, everyone should hold on tight.  With inventory limited downtown we may see a booming spring, summer & fall. Anthony Longo is Founder & CEO of CondoDomain.com.  His email is  Anthony@CondoDomain.com.  20
21 REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Boston is fortunate in having in our city CBRE’s global chief economist, Ray Torto.  When I asked for his prediction as to when our country will regain all jobs lost since the December, 2007 start of the recession, I immediately received his answer: “Q1-2, 2013 with Boston one or two quarters ahead.” The purpose of this article is to attach meaning to the recovery.  As I will now describe, the recovery I believe will be unlike anything we have seen before. Foundation for Recovery The foundation for recovery remains unchanged – job growth.  It was jobs that grew after 1974-1976, 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2001-2003 recessions and it will be jobs again in Q4 2012.  That said, this time around there will be a strong overhang from the last 10 years. That overhang will be the impact of excess spending in the United States.  We are sitting with $12 trillion of debt.  We are sitting with federal tax revenues that can cover only 2/3’s of the $4 trillion in operating costs. “Stimulus” is a pet word.  Just look at the stimulus that has taken place since 2000: *Huge supply of capital chasing real estate. *An economy going gang-buster from 2004 to the end of 2007. *Plentiful capital through the CMBS vehicle. History of Recoveries If we study the history of past recoveries, they were created by sound, basic real estate economics.  One new office job requires 250+ s/f of space.  One new industrial job requires 500+ s/f of space.  One new person can live in an apartment. I saved Spaulding & Slye reports of the late 1970s and 1980s which tell an interesting story: *Office vacancy rates – 1.5% to 11% *Dramatic dwindling of first class supply *Significant pre-leasing *R&D/Industrial space – new active area *”A 4% annual growth rate will reduce vacancy   to nearly zero.” For the 1990s, when I shifted to the Whittier Partners Bottom Line Report, it mirrored readings from the 1970s and 1980s: *Steady economic growth *Build-to-suit construction *Renovation of older buildings becoming a source of supply The Boston Commercial Real Estate Market After Recovery From the “Great Recession” Webster A. Collins, Executive Vice President/Partner of CB Richard Ellis New England
In the 2000s, there is a different story: *A huge supply of capital chasing real estate *Mezz debt – the new wave *20% to 25% availability rates for office space *34.4 million s/f more office construction than jobs can support Job growth, the cornerstone of the market, was forgotten. Conclusion The Boston market after recovery will become a far more balanced market.  We will be the beneficiary of being one of only five 24-hour cities in the United States.  At the same time, we like the rest of the United States, will suffer from bad political decisions. Real estate over the next 10 years will be risk/return driven.  This time around, the tightened underwriting standards of the 1990s will not be loosened by a flood of capital. Tightened controls will be placed on government.  We have GDP of close to $13 trillion and $12 trillion of debt.  A 1:1 ratio is unsustainable. We have no choice but to cut the ratio of debt to GDP in half.  As described at our 2010 CBRE kick-off meeting on January 6, 2010, we are in a heavy weight fight.  We are 7-8 rounds into it with 7-8 rounds to go.  If the stamina of 1776-1782 prevails, we will be the winners. Webster A. Collins, MAI, CRE,FRICS is Executive Vice President/Partner within CB Richard Ellis/New England in their Valuation and Advisory Group,   His email is web.collins@cbre-ne.com.  22 2011 Prime – Urban Report
REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Navigating Condo Project Approval  There’s good news out there if you know where to look Chris A. Kulp, Regional Builder Sales Manager, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage Without a doubt, when it comes to new construction/conversion condominium financing, confusion abounds for builders/developers, mortgage professionals, and borrowers alike:  Why do I need to get a project approval?  What does a project approval mean?  If so, what kind of approval do I obtain?  And what is a CPM, PERS, or HUD approval anyway?  What is the right pre-sale number?  What counts as a pre-sale?  What about phasing?  Does it make a difference if my project is a low-rise, mid-rise, or high-rise?     These are some of the questions that are asked every day, and depending on whom you ask, answers may vary.      But, there is good news on the horizon for condo developers and their ultimate customer – the home buyer.  Earlier this year the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), delivered some much needed relief to its condominium guidelines.  Additionally, Fannie Mae (FNMA) has shown a willingness to review the individual merits of a condo project in its continuing efforts to help a successful project and accomplish its mission to provide home buyers with competitive home mortgage products.   First, let’s look at Fannie Mae’s different approval levels, and what they mean to the marketability and viability of a project.     FNMA offers lenders two options to approve a project for financing.  The first is known as Condo Project Manager or CPM.  After a lender reviews the project and determines acceptability, information is submitted to an automated approval database with standardized questions.  If a project doesn’t meet standardized Fannie Mae guidelines, especially with regard to pre-sale, budgeted reserves, or insurance coverage, it will not pass the CPM approval process.     However, all is not lost.     An additional option for FNMA is called Project Eligibility Review Service or PERS.  This is the old 1028 process under which a complete package of material is forwarded directly to FNMA to underwrite.  Fannie Mae may approve the project with specific conditions, or it may make recommendations on what needs to be changed so the project is acceptable for financing.    In addition, Fannie Mae has started allowing developers to vertically sub-phase through the PERS approval process – or to market their buildings in phases.  This means a high-rise developer may have the opportunity to more readily reach FNMA’s specified presale requirement within a group of floors, instead of having to put more than half of the units in a building under contract before being able to close on their first sale.          23
2011 Prime – Urban Report Developers, especially those with high-rise condo projects, have previously been told they couldn’t get their building approved for financing until they had a lot more purchase and sale agreements in place.  They can now investigate sub-phasing their building to start closing units immediately.  This strategy wasn’t previously widely known or even considered, so it provides an enhanced option. In December, 2009 FHA lowered its pre-sale requirement to 30 percent of the units in a project or approved legal phase in which the builder or developer has gone through the necessary steps to get FHA project approval.  And here too, time is of the essence as the lower pre-sale requirement is set to expire December 31, 2010 after which FHA's normal 50 percent pre-sale requirement will go into effect.  In addition, HUD has made numerous additional changes to enhance its project approval requirements to help create a successful environment for condominium homeownership.   The good news is that the agencies, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and FHA, are committed to making financing available for condominium.  While many developers have taken a swing at the ball and missed in the past, it’s definitely worth stepping up to the plate again.  Discussing what options may be available or what changes or phasing possibilities exist with a professional in the lending industry can make all the difference in the viability and success of a condo project.   Chris Kulp is Regional Builder Sales Manager for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.  His email is Chris.Kulp@WellsFargo.com.          24
Major Boston Condo Communities Building Profiles 45 Province				Page  23 285 Columbus Lofts			Page  24 700 Harrison				Page  25 Allele				Page  26 Battery Wharf				Page  27 The Bryant				Page  28 The Clarendon			Page  29 FP3				Page  30 The Macallen				Page  31 The Penmark				Page  32 Penny Savings Bank			Page  33 Residences at the Intercontinental		Page  34 The 1850				Page  35 W Boston				Page  36 25 2011 Prime – Urban Report
26 45 Province 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
27 285 Columbus 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
28 700 Harrison 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
29 Allele 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
30 Battery Wharf 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
31 The Bryant 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
32 The Clarendon 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
33 FP3 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
34 Macallen Building 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
35 The Penmark 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
36 Penny Savings Condominiums 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
37 Residences at the Intercontinental 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
38 The 1850 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
39 W Boston 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
2011 Prime – Urban Report “New condo developments in Boston that have clearly established market pricing and good end loan financing packages in place will realize a significant improvement in sales absorption in 2010.” 40
2010 Prime – Urban Report Welcome to  PrimeTime Communities From Concept to Community PrimeTime Communities is a research, marketing, and sales company which provides services to developers of new home condominium communities.   In 2004, Tom Skahen, whose early career focused in the areas of real estate acquisition, development, marketing, and management, and Janice Dumont, an award-winning expert in the field of new construction design, marketing, and sales, combined their skills and created PrimeTime Communities and its “Concept to Community” approach to service developers. PrimeTime Communities’ commitment is to building the name of the developer and designing the ultimate living experience for the homeowner.  41
What We Do & How We Do It Services Provided Research & Consulting We at PrimeTime Communities believe that a thoroughly and properly researched property is a cornerstone to a successful project.  Our skilled and knowledgeable team can identify the advantages and disadvantages of a location and determine a strategy to maximize its potential.  This strategy will establish the most feasible and profitable approach for the developer’s benefit. In addition to reviewing the marketability of the project, the PrimeTime team will review  floor plans, building design, amenities, and pricing to ensure that the final product will appeal to and meet the needs of the buyers within the targeted niche market. Marketing & Design The showcasing of a product can intensely impact its success.  A product that has been properly positioned should highlight the features that create its uniqueness and set it apart from all others.  These features are what will drive a buyer to NEED to purchase this property.  The PrimeTime team’s project specific marketing materials, including name and graphic identity, websites, brochures, direct mail pieces, and marketing and sales centers, are designed to catch the eye and interest buyers. Whether it’s online, in their hands, or at the sales center, our marketing materials are designed to make buyers feel comfortable and confident in moving forward with their purchases. Sales Management PrimeTime Communities’ sales teams are made up of real estate professionals capable and committed to delivering results.  These sales professionals are dedicated to a specific community through the call center, pre-marketing, and on-site sales phases.  Through their PrimeTime training they have developed skills in lead management, interpersonal relationships, and sales management which ultimately results in an efficient and effective sales process. 42 2011Prime – Urban Report Developer
Janice Dumont Partner Janice Dumont leads the sales and marketing team at PrimeTime Communities and uses her creative abilities to develop new and unique strategies for the properties we represent.  These strategies emphasize  spectacular design and staging, eye-catching advertising, and positive buyer/seller communications. Janice has received industry-wide recognition for her work and has been a guest speaker for both the National Association of Home Builders and the Builders Association of Greater Boston.  She has been awarded the NAHB Gold Award for National Salesperson of the Year, the Gold Prism Award as Salesperson of the Year, and the national Sales & Marketing Council’s Silver Award for Salesperson of the Year. Janice’s professionalism and skill lead the PrimeTime creative and sales teams to the highest levels of achievement and client satisfaction. 43 2011Prime – Urban Report
Thomas Skahen Partner Tom Skahen has 20 years of experience in real estate acquisition, development, marketing and management.  He began his career in 1990 acquiring, managing, and selling multi-family properties.  In 1995 Tom was hired by Ernst and Young as a management consultant responsible for real estate advisory, mergers, and acquisitions.  In 1998 he joined  real estate company Epoch SL as Director of Business Development.  Tom has performed over 250 real estate market feasibility studies. Tom ‘s interest in the real estate field has led him to take on leadership roles in numerous related associations including the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), The Builders Association of Greater Boston (BAGB), and the New England 50+ Housing Council, which he founded and of which he is a past chairperson.  Tom has spoken at conferences for the NAHB and BAGB and was selected the 2004 Rookie of the Year for BAGB. At PrimeTime, Tom oversees the day to day operations as well as the consulting, strategy, and brokerage aspects.  He is a licensed real estate broker in the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Maine. 44 2010 Prime – Urban Report
PrimeTime Communities - Awards Best of 50+ Housing Awards 2008 Gold Award Active Adult Housing: Overall Community –(up to 200 Homes) Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2008 Gold Award Active Adult Housing: Clubhouse Interior Design – (up to 6,000 square feet) Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA 2008 Silver Award	 Active Adult Housing: Attached Home Design – For Sale Attached, over 2400 square feet Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   45 2011Prime – Urban Report The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) National Sales & Marketing Council Awards Gold Award National Salesperson of the Year Janice Dumont   Silver Award Salesperson of the Year Janice Dumont Builders Association of Greater Boston (BAGB) Prism Awards (Prestigious Results in Sales & Marketing) 2007 Gold Award Best Attached Home Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2007 Gold Award Best Interior Merchandising Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   Salesperson of the Year Janice Dumont   BAGB Association Awards 2005 Rookie of the Year Thomas C. Skahen
PrimeTime Communities - Awards Home Builders & Remodelers Assoc. of NH (HBRANH) Cornerstone Awards 2007 Gold Award Best Active Adult Community Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2007 Silver Award Best Model Merchandising Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA 46 2011Prime – Urban Report 50 Plus New England Housing Council Best of 50+ New England Housing Awards 2008 Gold Award Best Small Clubhouse Interior Design Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2008 Gold Award Best Attached Home Design 1,401 to 2,200 sf. Heritage Woods, Lynnfield, MA   2008 Silver Award Best Model Home Merchandising Over 2,200 sf. Ocean Meadow, West Newbury, MA   2008 Silver Award Best Attached Home Design Up to 1,400 sf. Heron Crest, Mansfield, MA
47 2011Prime – Urban Report
2011Prime – Urban Report CONTRIBUTORS 2011 Prime Report Director of Research – Dan Hussey Editorial Board – Tom Skahen, Janice Dumont, and Barbara Olofson Article Contributors –  	Anthony Longo, 	Webster A. Collins,  	Chris A. Kulp ADDITIONAL   PRIME   REPORTS Coming Soon Click Here http://www.primetimecommunities.com/Real_Estate_Market/AA2009ReportFINAL.pdf 48
119 Russell Street, Suite 16 Littleton, Massachusetts 01460 Phone:  978.952.6495     Fax:  978.952.6497 www.PrimeTimeCommunities.cominfo@PrimeTimeCommunities.com             Join The Conversation!   PrimeTime is now on Facebook! http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Littleton-MA/PrimeTime-Communities/428613020000?ref=ts Click to Become a Fan

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2011 urban report 1.14

  • 1. The 2011 Prime Urban Report A Comprehensive Study of Boston’s Residential Market And Factors Which Impact Its Viability
  • 2. 2 2011 Prime – Urban Report Welcome to The 2011 Prime Urban Report Thomas Skahen, Co-Founder and Partner Janice Dumont, Co-Founder and Partner We are proud to release our 2011 Prime Urban Report. We hope the report and topics are of interest to developers, architects, investors, brokers, and other real estate industry professionals. Our intent was to drill down and look at Massachusetts, Boston, and specific residential developments currently under construction in the Boston marketplace. We hope you enjoy the 2011 Prime Urban Report and look forward to any comments or feedback you may have. Join The Conversation! PrimeTime is now on Facebook! Click to Become a Fan http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Littleton-MA/PrimeTime-Communities/428613020000?ref=ts DISCLOSURE: While diligent attempts are made to ensure the accuracy of this report, the authors assume no liability for any errors or omissions. Anyone relying on the information contained in this report should take all steps necessary to verify it for themselves.
  • 3. 2011 Prime – UrbanReport Why We Put This Report Together PrimeTime Communities – PASSION Many developers ask us why we undertake such a large research project such as The Prime - Urban Report. The answer, although sometimes a little too simple, is passion. The Prime - Urban Report, and its sisters, The Prime – Suburban Report and The Prime - 50 Plus Report, take an outstanding amount of time and dedication to produce. Our team and contributors share our passion for the development industry and its future. We hope that our efforts help developers in their search for the best consultants, the best sales teams, and the best creative campaigns. All resulting in successful future developments and the prosperity of our economy. 3
  • 4. 2010 Prime – Urban Report Contents Assessing the Massachusetts Urban Market Part I. Residential Review Part II. Boston Community Profiles Part III. PrimeTime Overview 4
  • 5. REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Residential Review What Goes Up? Thomas Skahen, Co-Founder and Partner PrimeTime Communities You know the song. “What goes up must come down, Spinning wheel got to go round, Talking ‘bout your troubles it's a crying sin, Ride a painted pony let the spinning wheel spin.” (Blood, Sweat, and Tears - 1969) From a Boston new construction sales perspective we went up in 2006 , came down in 2007 and 2008, and spun our wheels in 2009. That’s what it feels like anyway. 2010 will be the beginning of the going up again! In Massachusetts, single family home sales rose from 34,546 to 36,288 and condominium sales continued to slide down from 15,608 to 15,321 from 2008 to 2009. For Boston, sales declined from 3,002 in 2008 to 2,482 in 2009. This was the fifth year of declines for the Boston condominium market. Single family homes and condominium sales median prices continued to slide down from $310,000 to $290,000 for single family homes and $274,000 to $252,000 for condominium homes for the time period of 2008 to 2009. For Boston, median sales prices actually decreased from $733,000 in 2008 to $602,000 in 2009. For the same time period average sales prices in Boston went from $475,000 to $446,000 and have appeared to level off. Average days on market for Massachusetts single family homes and condominiums increased from 136 to 129 and 140 to 133 respectively. This downward trend is an indication that it may start getting easier to sell a home. For Boston, average days on market increased slightly from 91 in 2009 to 105 in 2009.   Will lack of supply create demand? In Massachusetts, single family and condominium permits dropped from 4,764 to 4,094 and 3,994 to 2,053 respectively from 2008 to 2009. In 2005 permits were 14,000 and 10,000 for single family homes and condominiums. In 2008 the permits were 513 and 2009 is projected to be only even less. This is significantly lower than the last six years that we analyzed. Listings continue to drop from the 2007 peak in Massachusetts from 20,122 to 17,350 for single family homes and 9,131 to 7,589 from 2008 to 2009 respectively. For Boston, listings have leveled off from 1,064 to 1,044 for 2008 and 2009. Another positive indicator that will eventually drive sales back up because of the lack of supply. Overall, 2009 proved to be similar to 2008 in terms of price and sales declines. The real estate market has worked hard over the last two plus years to correct itself. As it relates to supply within the real estate market we’ve seen significant drops in inventory or listings and increases in average days on market to sell a home. Both positive indicators that will eventually move prices and sales up. We do need a rebound in employment before we will see a significant upturn in the real estate market. New condo developments in Boston that have clearly established market pricing and good end loan financing packages in place will realize a significant improvement in sales absorption in 2010. 5
  • 6. 2011 Prime – Urban Report Massachusetts MLS Sales Single family homes and condominium sales declined in 2010. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts MLS Average Selling Prices The average sale price of condominiums and single family homes saw its first real increase in 2010 since 2006. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts MLS Average Days on Market The ADOM continued to decline for its second straight year for both single family homes and condominiums. 6 Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc.
  • 7. 2011 Prime – Urban Report 2010 Massachusetts MLS Sales by Month Single family homes and condominium sales declined sharply in July and continued to dip slightly until December. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts MLS Average Selling Price by Month The average sale price of condominiums and single family homes peaks in July of 2010. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Massachusetts Average Price Shift Single Family homes under $500k saw 6% drop in sales, while homes $500k and above saw at 16% increase in sales. 7 Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc.
  • 8. 2011 Prime – UrbanReport Massachusetts Monthly Absorption Trends Homes absorbed slightly below 2000 sales a month at the beginning of 2010 and peaked near 5200 sales in June. SOURCE: Massachusetts Association of Realtors Residential Permits Massachusetts Data Not Available Then number of residential permits being issued in Massachusetts has declined steadily since 2005, as builders are scaling back projects. Data Not Available Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Division of Manufacturing and Construction Massachusetts MLS Active Listings There are more single family homes and condominiums on the market in 2010, ending the two year decline in inventory. 8 Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Source: MLS Property Information Network, Inc.
  • 9. REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report New Condo Communities - Boston Thomas Skahen, Co-Founder and Partner PrimeTime Communities The stats highlighted above for Massachusetts and Boston were obtained from Multiple Listing Services , LINK, Mass. Association of Realtors, and U.S. Bureau of Census. The intent of The 2010 Prime Urban Report is to uncover at a micro level what is really going on with new construction condominium communities in Boston for residential and commercial developers, institutional investors, banks, buyers, and others associated with the Boston real estate industry. The approach includes utilizing MLS, Link, Book and Deed, and developer review to determine the most accurate sales data. As we did last year, we have focused on actual sales per multiple sources to uncover the real yearly and monthly absorption (sales) trends within the Boston market. We’ve been tracking new construction in Boston for three years now and have created an index to show exactly what’s going on with Boston new construction sales pace and how it compares to each of the developments. We looked at the largest and most prominent new residential communities currently under construction in Boston and this is what we found: Our study included 14 new construction residential communities consisting of 1,202 total units with 635 sold or 53 percent. Of the 635 units sold, 83 were affordable and 551 were market rate sales. This leaves us with only 567 new construction homes remaining in inventory as of year end 2009. This is down from 626 new construction inventory homes in 2008 and is a 9 .5 percent drop. If the Boston market monthly sales absorption per community increased to a more normal 3.0 sales per month for the 14 new construction communities or 36 per month in total, the 567 remaining units would be depleted in 15 months. As we pointed out last year, Boston new construction supply is extremely low. We will see a significant price increase in new construction inventory over the next few years as this inventory quickly diminishes and the job market begins to pick up.   So what does our urban new construction index tell us? For the 14 new construction communities we looked at, we determined that there were 149 sales in 2009 . On average each of the communities sold 1.00 units per month (absorption). In 2008 the average was 1.2. The highest was 3.3 and the lowest was .2. The decline represents a 14 percent drop in the monthly sales rate. Developers have dropped prices, inventory is diminishing, and new construction home sales are still on the decline. We love to look at what’s working and why. The two highest absorption rates in Boston were The 1850 and The Bryant on Columbus with 3.3 and   9
  • 10. 2011 Prime – Urban Report 1.9 sales per month respectively in 2009. Both were properties that were auctioned for all the right reasons. The strategy was to let buyers set the new market value for the homes because, quite simply, developers don’t set value in this current real estate market. At The 1850, it was the seller’s strategy to close out the property via an auction. Approximately 39 homes sold in 2009, mostly due to the auction. At The Bryant, the sellers utilized the auction strategy to reset the prices. Their approach was to put 10 of the 50 total units up for auction, have the buyer market reset prices, and sell the remaining inventory conventionally. They sold all 10 of the luxury homes with relatively good price points and continue to sell homes post auction. The same strategy was even more successful in the suburbs. The Nouvelle at Natick seller sold 50 of the 214 homes at auction, reset the prices for the remaining inventory, and achieved a 6.2 sales rate in 2009. Post auction, 31 additional units were sold (with 8 more under agreement) making Nouvelle the fastest selling community in Massachusetts. The auction strategy for a close out or a reset in pricing works. It drives huge traffic to the site that otherwise would not have visited. The buyer market just “gets” this process. Even if they don’t “get it” they understand pricing and will buy a well positioned and reasonably priced home. 10
  • 11. 2010 Data comes from Link year end report. Ready to drop in. 2011 Prime – Urban Report Boston Sales Sales volume continues to decline. SOURCE: Link Boston Boston Median Selling Price Both the median and average price of a home sold in Boston declined in 2009. SOURCE: Link Boston Source: Link Boston Boston Sales Average Days on Market The ADOM increased in 2009. 11 SOURCE: Link Boston Source: Link Boston
  • 12. Q4 2101 comes from LINK 2011 Prime – UrbanReport Boston Listings The number of listings has remained relatively flat compared to 2008. Source: Link Boston Residential Permits Boston Data Not Available Not Available Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Division of Manufacturing and Construction 12
  • 13. 2011 Prime – Urban Report Boston Sales Comparison by Number of Bedrooms Comes from Links 2010 Year End Report Source: Link Boston Source: Link Boston Boston Sales Comparison by Square Feet Comes from Links 2010 Year End Report 13 Source: Link Boston
  • 14.
  • 15. 2011 Prime – Urban Report Top Performers The Clarendon – 2010 Absorption 3.3 Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010. 15
  • 16. 2011 Prime – Urban Report Top Performers FP3 – 2010 Absorption 2.6 Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010. 16
  • 17. 2011 Prime – Urban Report 2010 Sales Summary – New Construction NOTES: 1. Market rate sales are sales of homes sold at full market value without subsidization from public sector entities such as local governments, HUD, etc.; 2. "Absorption" measures the number of sales per month; 3. “Sales” refers to homes sales that were recorded by the Registry of Deeds by 12/31/2009; 17
  • 18. 2011 Prime – Urban Report “In 2008, new construction sales per month were 1.2 and dropped to 1.0 in 2009. If we extrapolate the communities auctioned, the rate was .60 in 2009. With the drop in both new construction and re-sale inventory, price adjustments, and low interest rates, this sales rate should begin to trend up in 2010. Developers should continue to look for creative strategies to accelerate existing inventory.” 18
  • 19. REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Streetwalking Gone Mainstream Anthony Longo, Founder & CEO, CondoDomain.com 2009 was quite the interesting year in Boston real estate (not to mention nationwide). It was the year us techies have all been waiting for, however there are two sides to this story.   Good News First: The once protected pool of information used for “decision making” in regards to real estate was finally released into our world-wide-web. While the National Association of Realtors spent years fighting against it, MLS data was never more easily accessible than in 2009. (MLS stands for Multiple Listing Service) This sprouted the birth of hundreds of web-based real estate companies all gunning to create valuable online tools leveraging the newly available MLS and social media systems.   Enter web-savvy consumers who ate up these new tools and proved to be smarter homebuyers and sellers than ever seen before. Because of the accessibility to information that was once only granted internally to a licensed broker and/or salesperson, consumers now had real and objective city, neighborhood and even individual property data. They had easy access to available and sold listings comparables. They had access to price changes, days on market and even tax information. Most importantly, they had access to this data in real-time just like the brokers did creating a “new type of sales process”.   Homebuyers and sellers have never been more prepared and knowledgeable. Savvy clients toured open houses with spreadsheets and printed notes for not just that property, but the five comparable properties down the street. 2009 was the year that consumers made the home buying and selling process more efficient and transparent.   The Bad News: Not all data is created equally and not all buyers and sellers handled it responsibly. Unfortunately, real estate has many variables and some of them have nothing to do with a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. We have seen, on countless occasions, buyers and sellers misuse or misinterpret data that brought the buying and selling process to a standstill.   For example, if you compared home sales from 2008 to 2009 in downtown Boston you will see that decrease of 6% in overall transaction volume (3869 sales in 2009 vs 3636 units in 2008) and a decrease of 9% in average price ($452,918 in ’09 vs. $500,413 in ’08). One would generally assume they could get an 8-10% reduction of the listing price on anything in downtown Boston and that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Buyers and sellers must understand that value holds true on a very local and specific level in downtown metropolitans. While the West End and Fenway may have seen steeper declines in 2009, the South End saw an increase in average sales prices. Obviously, for bargain hunters– South End was not a place for them to be.       19
  • 20. 2011 Prime – Urban Report The point I am trying to make is that it is an amazing feat that consumers now have access to detailed property information and there is no question it has made the process more efficient and, hopefully, more affordable at the same time. The necessity of a true “expert” real estate agent is still very much needed and important. The term “expert”, however, has been redefined over the past year because the average buyer has become smarter.   Jessica Quirk, our top producer and one of Boston’s top real estate agents, spent 2009 closing more than 40 purchases and touring more than 500 properties in the Boston area. She knows value when she sees it and understands what makes the pricing in a particular neighborhood, street or even a building fluctuate over time. She knows, better than anyone, how powerful data can be and that, along with her overall real estate knowledge, is why she is one of the top agents in Boston. Consumers are now armed with the information at their fingertips and this will only continue to grow in 2010 and beyond. With more and more home shoppers on the web and as we have expanded our web footprint (www.CondoDomain.com) we can really get our arms around search analytics. If our traffic patterns are any indication of what 2010 will look like, everyone should hold on tight. With inventory limited downtown we may see a booming spring, summer & fall. Anthony Longo is Founder & CEO of CondoDomain.com. His email is Anthony@CondoDomain.com. 20
  • 21. 21 REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Boston is fortunate in having in our city CBRE’s global chief economist, Ray Torto. When I asked for his prediction as to when our country will regain all jobs lost since the December, 2007 start of the recession, I immediately received his answer: “Q1-2, 2013 with Boston one or two quarters ahead.” The purpose of this article is to attach meaning to the recovery. As I will now describe, the recovery I believe will be unlike anything we have seen before. Foundation for Recovery The foundation for recovery remains unchanged – job growth. It was jobs that grew after 1974-1976, 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2001-2003 recessions and it will be jobs again in Q4 2012. That said, this time around there will be a strong overhang from the last 10 years. That overhang will be the impact of excess spending in the United States. We are sitting with $12 trillion of debt. We are sitting with federal tax revenues that can cover only 2/3’s of the $4 trillion in operating costs. “Stimulus” is a pet word. Just look at the stimulus that has taken place since 2000: *Huge supply of capital chasing real estate. *An economy going gang-buster from 2004 to the end of 2007. *Plentiful capital through the CMBS vehicle. History of Recoveries If we study the history of past recoveries, they were created by sound, basic real estate economics. One new office job requires 250+ s/f of space. One new industrial job requires 500+ s/f of space. One new person can live in an apartment. I saved Spaulding & Slye reports of the late 1970s and 1980s which tell an interesting story: *Office vacancy rates – 1.5% to 11% *Dramatic dwindling of first class supply *Significant pre-leasing *R&D/Industrial space – new active area *”A 4% annual growth rate will reduce vacancy to nearly zero.” For the 1990s, when I shifted to the Whittier Partners Bottom Line Report, it mirrored readings from the 1970s and 1980s: *Steady economic growth *Build-to-suit construction *Renovation of older buildings becoming a source of supply The Boston Commercial Real Estate Market After Recovery From the “Great Recession” Webster A. Collins, Executive Vice President/Partner of CB Richard Ellis New England
  • 22. In the 2000s, there is a different story: *A huge supply of capital chasing real estate *Mezz debt – the new wave *20% to 25% availability rates for office space *34.4 million s/f more office construction than jobs can support Job growth, the cornerstone of the market, was forgotten. Conclusion The Boston market after recovery will become a far more balanced market. We will be the beneficiary of being one of only five 24-hour cities in the United States. At the same time, we like the rest of the United States, will suffer from bad political decisions. Real estate over the next 10 years will be risk/return driven. This time around, the tightened underwriting standards of the 1990s will not be loosened by a flood of capital. Tightened controls will be placed on government. We have GDP of close to $13 trillion and $12 trillion of debt. A 1:1 ratio is unsustainable. We have no choice but to cut the ratio of debt to GDP in half. As described at our 2010 CBRE kick-off meeting on January 6, 2010, we are in a heavy weight fight. We are 7-8 rounds into it with 7-8 rounds to go. If the stamina of 1776-1782 prevails, we will be the winners. Webster A. Collins, MAI, CRE,FRICS is Executive Vice President/Partner within CB Richard Ellis/New England in their Valuation and Advisory Group, His email is web.collins@cbre-ne.com. 22 2011 Prime – Urban Report
  • 23. REPLACE ARTICLE 2011 Prime – Urban Report Navigating Condo Project Approval There’s good news out there if you know where to look Chris A. Kulp, Regional Builder Sales Manager, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage Without a doubt, when it comes to new construction/conversion condominium financing, confusion abounds for builders/developers, mortgage professionals, and borrowers alike: Why do I need to get a project approval? What does a project approval mean? If so, what kind of approval do I obtain? And what is a CPM, PERS, or HUD approval anyway? What is the right pre-sale number? What counts as a pre-sale? What about phasing? Does it make a difference if my project is a low-rise, mid-rise, or high-rise?   These are some of the questions that are asked every day, and depending on whom you ask, answers may vary.   But, there is good news on the horizon for condo developers and their ultimate customer – the home buyer. Earlier this year the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), delivered some much needed relief to its condominium guidelines. Additionally, Fannie Mae (FNMA) has shown a willingness to review the individual merits of a condo project in its continuing efforts to help a successful project and accomplish its mission to provide home buyers with competitive home mortgage products.   First, let’s look at Fannie Mae’s different approval levels, and what they mean to the marketability and viability of a project.   FNMA offers lenders two options to approve a project for financing. The first is known as Condo Project Manager or CPM. After a lender reviews the project and determines acceptability, information is submitted to an automated approval database with standardized questions. If a project doesn’t meet standardized Fannie Mae guidelines, especially with regard to pre-sale, budgeted reserves, or insurance coverage, it will not pass the CPM approval process.   However, all is not lost.   An additional option for FNMA is called Project Eligibility Review Service or PERS. This is the old 1028 process under which a complete package of material is forwarded directly to FNMA to underwrite. Fannie Mae may approve the project with specific conditions, or it may make recommendations on what needs to be changed so the project is acceptable for financing.   In addition, Fannie Mae has started allowing developers to vertically sub-phase through the PERS approval process – or to market their buildings in phases. This means a high-rise developer may have the opportunity to more readily reach FNMA’s specified presale requirement within a group of floors, instead of having to put more than half of the units in a building under contract before being able to close on their first sale.         23
  • 24. 2011 Prime – Urban Report Developers, especially those with high-rise condo projects, have previously been told they couldn’t get their building approved for financing until they had a lot more purchase and sale agreements in place. They can now investigate sub-phasing their building to start closing units immediately. This strategy wasn’t previously widely known or even considered, so it provides an enhanced option. In December, 2009 FHA lowered its pre-sale requirement to 30 percent of the units in a project or approved legal phase in which the builder or developer has gone through the necessary steps to get FHA project approval. And here too, time is of the essence as the lower pre-sale requirement is set to expire December 31, 2010 after which FHA's normal 50 percent pre-sale requirement will go into effect. In addition, HUD has made numerous additional changes to enhance its project approval requirements to help create a successful environment for condominium homeownership.   The good news is that the agencies, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and FHA, are committed to making financing available for condominium. While many developers have taken a swing at the ball and missed in the past, it’s definitely worth stepping up to the plate again. Discussing what options may be available or what changes or phasing possibilities exist with a professional in the lending industry can make all the difference in the viability and success of a condo project.   Chris Kulp is Regional Builder Sales Manager for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. His email is Chris.Kulp@WellsFargo.com.         24
  • 25. Major Boston Condo Communities Building Profiles 45 Province Page 23 285 Columbus Lofts Page 24 700 Harrison Page 25 Allele Page 26 Battery Wharf Page 27 The Bryant Page 28 The Clarendon Page 29 FP3 Page 30 The Macallen Page 31 The Penmark Page 32 Penny Savings Bank Page 33 Residences at the Intercontinental Page 34 The 1850 Page 35 W Boston Page 36 25 2011 Prime – Urban Report
  • 26. 26 45 Province 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 27. 27 285 Columbus 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 28. 28 700 Harrison 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 29. 29 Allele 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 30. 30 Battery Wharf 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 31. 31 The Bryant 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 32. 32 The Clarendon 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 33. 33 FP3 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 34. 34 Macallen Building 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 35. 35 The Penmark 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 36. 36 Penny Savings Condominiums 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 37. 37 Residences at the Intercontinental 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 38. 38 The 1850 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 39. 39 W Boston 2011Prime – Urban Report Information based on MLSPIN data, Link Boston data, and public records as of 12/31/2010.
  • 40. 2011 Prime – Urban Report “New condo developments in Boston that have clearly established market pricing and good end loan financing packages in place will realize a significant improvement in sales absorption in 2010.” 40
  • 41. 2010 Prime – Urban Report Welcome to PrimeTime Communities From Concept to Community PrimeTime Communities is a research, marketing, and sales company which provides services to developers of new home condominium communities. In 2004, Tom Skahen, whose early career focused in the areas of real estate acquisition, development, marketing, and management, and Janice Dumont, an award-winning expert in the field of new construction design, marketing, and sales, combined their skills and created PrimeTime Communities and its “Concept to Community” approach to service developers. PrimeTime Communities’ commitment is to building the name of the developer and designing the ultimate living experience for the homeowner. 41
  • 42. What We Do & How We Do It Services Provided Research & Consulting We at PrimeTime Communities believe that a thoroughly and properly researched property is a cornerstone to a successful project. Our skilled and knowledgeable team can identify the advantages and disadvantages of a location and determine a strategy to maximize its potential. This strategy will establish the most feasible and profitable approach for the developer’s benefit. In addition to reviewing the marketability of the project, the PrimeTime team will review floor plans, building design, amenities, and pricing to ensure that the final product will appeal to and meet the needs of the buyers within the targeted niche market. Marketing & Design The showcasing of a product can intensely impact its success. A product that has been properly positioned should highlight the features that create its uniqueness and set it apart from all others. These features are what will drive a buyer to NEED to purchase this property. The PrimeTime team’s project specific marketing materials, including name and graphic identity, websites, brochures, direct mail pieces, and marketing and sales centers, are designed to catch the eye and interest buyers. Whether it’s online, in their hands, or at the sales center, our marketing materials are designed to make buyers feel comfortable and confident in moving forward with their purchases. Sales Management PrimeTime Communities’ sales teams are made up of real estate professionals capable and committed to delivering results. These sales professionals are dedicated to a specific community through the call center, pre-marketing, and on-site sales phases. Through their PrimeTime training they have developed skills in lead management, interpersonal relationships, and sales management which ultimately results in an efficient and effective sales process. 42 2011Prime – Urban Report Developer
  • 43. Janice Dumont Partner Janice Dumont leads the sales and marketing team at PrimeTime Communities and uses her creative abilities to develop new and unique strategies for the properties we represent. These strategies emphasize spectacular design and staging, eye-catching advertising, and positive buyer/seller communications. Janice has received industry-wide recognition for her work and has been a guest speaker for both the National Association of Home Builders and the Builders Association of Greater Boston. She has been awarded the NAHB Gold Award for National Salesperson of the Year, the Gold Prism Award as Salesperson of the Year, and the national Sales & Marketing Council’s Silver Award for Salesperson of the Year. Janice’s professionalism and skill lead the PrimeTime creative and sales teams to the highest levels of achievement and client satisfaction. 43 2011Prime – Urban Report
  • 44. Thomas Skahen Partner Tom Skahen has 20 years of experience in real estate acquisition, development, marketing and management. He began his career in 1990 acquiring, managing, and selling multi-family properties. In 1995 Tom was hired by Ernst and Young as a management consultant responsible for real estate advisory, mergers, and acquisitions. In 1998 he joined real estate company Epoch SL as Director of Business Development. Tom has performed over 250 real estate market feasibility studies. Tom ‘s interest in the real estate field has led him to take on leadership roles in numerous related associations including the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), The Builders Association of Greater Boston (BAGB), and the New England 50+ Housing Council, which he founded and of which he is a past chairperson. Tom has spoken at conferences for the NAHB and BAGB and was selected the 2004 Rookie of the Year for BAGB. At PrimeTime, Tom oversees the day to day operations as well as the consulting, strategy, and brokerage aspects. He is a licensed real estate broker in the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Maine. 44 2010 Prime – Urban Report
  • 45. PrimeTime Communities - Awards Best of 50+ Housing Awards 2008 Gold Award Active Adult Housing: Overall Community –(up to 200 Homes) Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2008 Gold Award Active Adult Housing: Clubhouse Interior Design – (up to 6,000 square feet) Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA 2008 Silver Award Active Adult Housing: Attached Home Design – For Sale Attached, over 2400 square feet Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   45 2011Prime – Urban Report The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) National Sales & Marketing Council Awards Gold Award National Salesperson of the Year Janice Dumont   Silver Award Salesperson of the Year Janice Dumont Builders Association of Greater Boston (BAGB) Prism Awards (Prestigious Results in Sales & Marketing) 2007 Gold Award Best Attached Home Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2007 Gold Award Best Interior Merchandising Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   Salesperson of the Year Janice Dumont   BAGB Association Awards 2005 Rookie of the Year Thomas C. Skahen
  • 46. PrimeTime Communities - Awards Home Builders & Remodelers Assoc. of NH (HBRANH) Cornerstone Awards 2007 Gold Award Best Active Adult Community Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2007 Silver Award Best Model Merchandising Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA 46 2011Prime – Urban Report 50 Plus New England Housing Council Best of 50+ New England Housing Awards 2008 Gold Award Best Small Clubhouse Interior Design Adams Farm, Shrewsbury, MA   2008 Gold Award Best Attached Home Design 1,401 to 2,200 sf. Heritage Woods, Lynnfield, MA   2008 Silver Award Best Model Home Merchandising Over 2,200 sf. Ocean Meadow, West Newbury, MA   2008 Silver Award Best Attached Home Design Up to 1,400 sf. Heron Crest, Mansfield, MA
  • 47. 47 2011Prime – Urban Report
  • 48. 2011Prime – Urban Report CONTRIBUTORS 2011 Prime Report Director of Research – Dan Hussey Editorial Board – Tom Skahen, Janice Dumont, and Barbara Olofson Article Contributors – Anthony Longo, Webster A. Collins, Chris A. Kulp ADDITIONAL PRIME REPORTS Coming Soon Click Here http://www.primetimecommunities.com/Real_Estate_Market/AA2009ReportFINAL.pdf 48
  • 49. 119 Russell Street, Suite 16 Littleton, Massachusetts 01460 Phone: 978.952.6495 Fax: 978.952.6497 www.PrimeTimeCommunities.cominfo@PrimeTimeCommunities.com Join The Conversation! PrimeTime is now on Facebook! http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Littleton-MA/PrimeTime-Communities/428613020000?ref=ts Click to Become a Fan