3. Low Carbon Innovation Tour 2009 Delivering results that will make history Dennis Pamlin Global Policy Advisor, WWF 2009 The Ashridge Sustainable Innovation Award in association with the EABIS and supported by HP and WWF
4. Sustainable Development Creating a society that long-term can: Improv e the quality of human life, giving everyone a chance to live a life in dignity, while living within the carrying capacity of supportive ecosystems , and leaving room for other species to exis t.
13. Personality (1) Know your history (your thinking) Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 (Goldman Sachs) http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-dream.html , October 2003
14. Personality (1) Know your history (your thinking) The CO2 explosion and explosion of use of natural resources
17. 2000 20 5 0 Population, millions Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 Personality (2) Global perspective Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050 Shifting the development profile further to a “developed” world means energy needs triple by 2050 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Low Poverty Base case Prosperous world Population expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries. Developed (GDP>$12,000) Emerging (GDP<$12,000) Developing (GDP<$5,000) Poorest (GDP<$1,500) Primary energy
18. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++ The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment Facts and Trends to 2050, WBCSD, November 2004 Personalty (3): Understand the Future Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years Nuclear 30 – 60 years Coal power 45+ years Hydro 75+ years Gas turbines 25+ years Buildings 45+++ years
19. Winners in a low carbon economy Or just winners in the 21st century
29. HP climate strategy framework Reduce HP-owned operations footprint Reduce the impact of our products on the climate Develop products and services that will reduce the footprint of the rest of the economy Advocate for effective public policy to enable the transformation of the economy to low-carbon 2-4Mt CO2e*/ Highest control 50-80Mt CO2e* / Medium control Up to 30,000Mt CO2e* / Lowest control 06/20/09 * Maximum addressable footprint. Order of magnitude.
36. Suppliers transport Stores Extraction Use Disposal 1. More renewable energy 3. More energy efficient equipment 6. Low carbon retailing business model 5. Increased public transport Improved home delivery 2. Net production of electricity 4. Furniture that allows for flexible work and furniture that support low carbon food
38. Possible climate positive contributions from IKEA Suppliers transp. Stores People transp. Extraction Use Disposal transport 13 500 000 CO 2 Climate smart food 25 300 000 CO 2 Total content in round wood 9 400 000 CO 2 1/3 might be possible to capture = 3 000 000 CO 2 Renewables 200 000 CO 2 Trendsetting * 5 incl. a significant shift to e-commerce: 3 140 000 CO 2 Total CO2 reduction potential 49 000 000 tonnes Changing from GLS to CFL and 50% from current CFL to LED 2 000 000 CO 2 Removing all 50% energy use from kitchen appliances 125 000 year/ 1 250 000 lifetime CO 2
48. A winner in the future Old approach New Goal Low risk/ Low cost Satisfying needs/New revenues Driver Media/Legislation New markets/Customers Responsible PR/CSR manager Planning/SMT/CEO/Board Focus What is easy to see/ Where the company’s impact legal responsibility is the most significant and where money can be made Climate change Reduce internal CO 2 Help society to reduce CO 2 Approach Reactive Proactive
1.1 Earth quaqe (whole production in China is lost) 1.2 War in middle east 1.3 Nuclear fusion 1.4 Nuclear bomb (dirty bomb) 1.5 Epidemy 1.6 War Russia and US 1.7 Not sufficient fossil resources 1.8 Terror bomming strike US 1.9 Global pandemia… 2.1 Lack of cheap products 2.2 High oil prices 2.3 Now more old power plants (miners unemployed, energy lines are not ready) 2.4 Lot of people die and wonded, clean water, energy 2.5 Develop biotech for helping people, reseach acceleration 2.6 more money for military 2.7 Major problem is the whole inductry as energy is gone… 2.9 Oil prices will increse, use electricity…. 3.10 every died… 3.1 Long lifetime product (recycle)… difficult 3.2 Biofuel use… 3.3 No nuclear 3.5 New solutions 3.6 Less expensive solutions form 3.8 Introduce new solutions like algee solutions…
1.1 Earth quaqe (whole production in China is lost) 1.2 War in middle east 1.3 Nuclear fusion 1.4 Nuclear bomb (dirty bomb) 1.5 Epidemy 1.6 War Russia and US 1.7 Not sufficient fossil resources 1.8 Terror bomming strike US 1.9 Global pandemia… 2.1 Lack of cheap products 2.2 High oil prices 2.3 Now more old power plants (miners unemployed, energy lines are not ready) 2.4 Lot of people die and wonded, clean water, energy 2.5 Develop biotech for helping people, reseach acceleration 2.6 more money for military 2.7 Major problem is the whole inductry as energy is gone… 2.9 Oil prices will increse, use electricity…. 3.10 every died… 3.1 Long lifetime product (recycle)… difficult 3.2 Biofuel use… 3.3 No nuclear 3.5 New solutions 3.6 Less expensive solutions form 3.8 Introduce new solutions like algee solutions…
This slide shows how energy demand increases as population grows, development needs are met and living standards rise. It contrasts the outcome of “business as usual” with two development scenarios. By 2050, world population could rise to around 9 billion (UN 2002). With no change in the global development profile, another two to three billion people would be living in poverty (base case). Two new development profiles are illustrated. Both reflect the UN goals to eliminate extreme poverty. Each shows increasing levels of development from the status quo, either to a “low poverty” world or to a “prosperous world” . The pressures of population growth and the goals to raise living standards combine to set us a formidable energy challenge for the 21st century. Shifting the development profile will require c onsiderable investment with energy demand rising at least two or three-fold from 2000.
Key messages: Breadth of strategy: Ops, products, supply-chain, entire economy. IT is a key part of the solution to climate change Scope vs control: need to lead in all 4 areas