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Low Carbon  Innovation Tour 2009 Delivering results that will make history Dennis Pamlin Global Policy Advisor, WWF 2009  The Ashridge Sustainable Innovation Award in association with the EABIS and supported by HP and WWF
Sustainable Development Creating a society that long-term can: Improv e  the quality of human life,  giving everyone a chance to live a life in dignity, while  living within the carrying capacity of supportive ecosystems , and  leaving room for other species to exis t.
ACT 1 The Crime
 
 
ACT 2 The Villain
 
ACT 3 The Hero
?
Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2006
Personality (1) Know your history (your thinking) Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 (Goldman Sachs)  http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html   http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-dream.html , October 2003
Personality (1) Know your history (your thinking) The CO2 explosion and explosion of use of natural resources
Personality (2) Global perspective
Personality (2) Global perspective
2000 20 5 0 Population, millions Source:  WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 Personality (2) Global perspective Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050 Shifting the development profile further to a “developed”   world means energy needs triple by 2050 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Low  Poverty Base  case Prosperous  world Population expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries. Developed (GDP>$12,000) Emerging (GDP<$12,000) Developing (GDP<$5,000) Poorest (GDP<$1,500) Primary energy
5  10  15  20  25  30  35  40  45  50  55  60  65  70  75  80 ++ The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment Facts and Trends to 2050, WBCSD, November 2004 Personalty (3):  Understand the Future  Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years Nuclear 30 – 60 years Coal power 45+ years Hydro   75+ years Gas turbines 25+ years Buildings 45+++ years
Winners in a low carbon economy Or just winners in the 21st century
THINK BIG
[object Object],Urban investments to provide basic services the next 30 years US $255 Trillion
Archive number X Trillion dollars ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],0  CO 2 Low energy  Focus on services and solutions
The example of IT
The 98% opportunity
A global context
[object Object],[object Object],The 98% opportunity
 
REALITY
HP climate strategy framework Reduce  HP-owned operations footprint Reduce the impact of our products on the climate Develop products and services that will reduce the footprint of the rest of the economy Advocate for effective public policy to enable the transformation of the economy to low-carbon 2-4Mt CO2e*/  Highest control 50-80Mt CO2e* / Medium control Up to 30,000Mt CO2e* / Lowest control 06/20/09 * Maximum addressable footprint. Order of magnitude.
 
 
 
低碳城市发展指标之哥本哈根宣言 The Copenhagen declaration for a low carbon city development index
The example of retailing
Climate Positive approach
Suppliers transport Stores Extraction Use Disposal 1. More renewable energy 3. More energy  efficient equipment 6. Low carbon retailing business model 5. Increased public transport   Improved home delivery 2. Net production of electricity 4. Furniture that allows for flexible work and furniture that support low carbon food
Reality
Possible climate positive contributions from IKEA Suppliers transp. Stores People transp. Extraction Use Disposal transport  13 500 000   CO 2 Climate smart food  25 300 000   CO 2 Total content in round wood  9 400 000  CO 2 1/3 might be possible to capture = 3 000 000  CO 2 Renewables  200 000  CO 2 Trendsetting * 5 incl. a significant shift to e-commerce: 3 140 000  CO 2 Total  CO2  reduction potential 49 000 000 tonnes Changing from GLS to CFL and 50%  from current CFL to LED 2 000 000  CO 2 Removing all 50% energy use from  kitchen appliances 125 000 year/ 1 250 000 lifetime  CO 2
 
Action
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A winner in the future Old approach   New Goal Low risk/ Low cost Satisfying needs/New revenues   Driver Media/Legislation New markets/Customers  Responsible PR/CSR manager Planning/SMT/CEO/Board   Focus What is easy to see/ Where the company’s impact  legal responsibility  is the most significant and    where money can be made Climate change Reduce internal CO 2 Help society to reduce CO 2 Approach Reactive Proactive
Sustainable development 谢谢 !

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090112 Low Carbon Innovation Tour 2009

  • 1.  
  • 2.  
  • 3. Low Carbon Innovation Tour 2009 Delivering results that will make history Dennis Pamlin Global Policy Advisor, WWF 2009 The Ashridge Sustainable Innovation Award in association with the EABIS and supported by HP and WWF
  • 4. Sustainable Development Creating a society that long-term can: Improv e the quality of human life, giving everyone a chance to live a life in dignity, while living within the carrying capacity of supportive ecosystems , and leaving room for other species to exis t.
  • 5. ACT 1 The Crime
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  • 7.  
  • 8. ACT 2 The Villain
  • 9.  
  • 10. ACT 3 The Hero
  • 11. ?
  • 13. Personality (1) Know your history (your thinking) Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 (Goldman Sachs) http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-dream.html , October 2003
  • 14. Personality (1) Know your history (your thinking) The CO2 explosion and explosion of use of natural resources
  • 15. Personality (2) Global perspective
  • 16. Personality (2) Global perspective
  • 17. 2000 20 5 0 Population, millions Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 Personality (2) Global perspective Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050 Shifting the development profile further to a “developed” world means energy needs triple by 2050 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Low Poverty Base case Prosperous world Population expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries. Developed (GDP>$12,000) Emerging (GDP<$12,000) Developing (GDP<$5,000) Poorest (GDP<$1,500) Primary energy
  • 18. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++ The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment Facts and Trends to 2050, WBCSD, November 2004 Personalty (3): Understand the Future Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years Nuclear 30 – 60 years Coal power 45+ years Hydro 75+ years Gas turbines 25+ years Buildings 45+++ years
  • 19. Winners in a low carbon economy Or just winners in the 21st century
  • 21.
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  • 29. HP climate strategy framework Reduce HP-owned operations footprint Reduce the impact of our products on the climate Develop products and services that will reduce the footprint of the rest of the economy Advocate for effective public policy to enable the transformation of the economy to low-carbon 2-4Mt CO2e*/ Highest control 50-80Mt CO2e* / Medium control Up to 30,000Mt CO2e* / Lowest control 06/20/09 * Maximum addressable footprint. Order of magnitude.
  • 30.  
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  • 32.  
  • 33. 低碳城市发展指标之哥本哈根宣言 The Copenhagen declaration for a low carbon city development index
  • 34. The example of retailing
  • 36. Suppliers transport Stores Extraction Use Disposal 1. More renewable energy 3. More energy efficient equipment 6. Low carbon retailing business model 5. Increased public transport Improved home delivery 2. Net production of electricity 4. Furniture that allows for flexible work and furniture that support low carbon food
  • 38. Possible climate positive contributions from IKEA Suppliers transp. Stores People transp. Extraction Use Disposal transport 13 500 000 CO 2 Climate smart food 25 300 000 CO 2 Total content in round wood 9 400 000 CO 2 1/3 might be possible to capture = 3 000 000 CO 2 Renewables 200 000 CO 2 Trendsetting * 5 incl. a significant shift to e-commerce: 3 140 000 CO 2 Total CO2 reduction potential 49 000 000 tonnes Changing from GLS to CFL and 50% from current CFL to LED 2 000 000 CO 2 Removing all 50% energy use from kitchen appliances 125 000 year/ 1 250 000 lifetime CO 2
  • 39.  
  • 41.  
  • 42.  
  • 43.  
  • 44.  
  • 45.  
  • 46.  
  • 47.  
  • 48. A winner in the future Old approach New Goal Low risk/ Low cost Satisfying needs/New revenues Driver Media/Legislation New markets/Customers Responsible PR/CSR manager Planning/SMT/CEO/Board Focus What is easy to see/ Where the company’s impact legal responsibility is the most significant and where money can be made Climate change Reduce internal CO 2 Help society to reduce CO 2 Approach Reactive Proactive

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. 1.1 Earth quaqe (whole production in China is lost) 1.2 War in middle east 1.3 Nuclear fusion 1.4 Nuclear bomb (dirty bomb) 1.5 Epidemy 1.6 War Russia and US 1.7 Not sufficient fossil resources 1.8 Terror bomming strike US 1.9 Global pandemia… 2.1 Lack of cheap products 2.2 High oil prices 2.3 Now more old power plants (miners unemployed, energy lines are not ready) 2.4 Lot of people die and wonded, clean water, energy 2.5 Develop biotech for helping people, reseach acceleration 2.6 more money for military 2.7 Major problem is the whole inductry as energy is gone… 2.9 Oil prices will increse, use electricity…. 3.10 every died… 3.1 Long lifetime product (recycle)… difficult 3.2 Biofuel use… 3.3 No nuclear 3.5 New solutions 3.6 Less expensive solutions form 3.8 Introduce new solutions like algee solutions…
  2. 1.1 Earth quaqe (whole production in China is lost) 1.2 War in middle east 1.3 Nuclear fusion 1.4 Nuclear bomb (dirty bomb) 1.5 Epidemy 1.6 War Russia and US 1.7 Not sufficient fossil resources 1.8 Terror bomming strike US 1.9 Global pandemia… 2.1 Lack of cheap products 2.2 High oil prices 2.3 Now more old power plants (miners unemployed, energy lines are not ready) 2.4 Lot of people die and wonded, clean water, energy 2.5 Develop biotech for helping people, reseach acceleration 2.6 more money for military 2.7 Major problem is the whole inductry as energy is gone… 2.9 Oil prices will increse, use electricity…. 3.10 every died… 3.1 Long lifetime product (recycle)… difficult 3.2 Biofuel use… 3.3 No nuclear 3.5 New solutions 3.6 Less expensive solutions form 3.8 Introduce new solutions like algee solutions…
  3. This slide shows how energy demand increases as population grows, development needs are met and living standards rise. It contrasts the outcome of “business as usual” with two development scenarios. By 2050, world population could rise to around 9 billion (UN 2002). With no change in the global development profile, another two to three billion people would be living in poverty (base case). Two new development profiles are illustrated. Both reflect the UN goals to eliminate extreme poverty. Each shows increasing levels of development from the status quo, either to a “low poverty” world or to a “prosperous world” . The pressures of population growth and the goals to raise living standards combine to set us a formidable energy challenge for the 21st century. Shifting the development profile will require c onsiderable investment with energy demand rising at least two or three-fold from 2000.
  4. Key messages: Breadth of strategy: Ops, products, supply-chain, entire economy. IT is a key part of the solution to climate change Scope vs control: need to lead in all 4 areas