Presentation given by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis, at the March 2019 Wi-Fi Now conference in Shanghai, China (colocated with the Wi-Fi Alliance summit) The presentation considers the future role of WiFi in the home, enterprise and public spaces. It compares its trajectory and advantages / disadvantages with 5G cellular technology. It covers topics including WiFi6, Industrial IoT and mesh networks.

1. Wi-Fi Opportunities & Challenges
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Wi-Fi Now, Shanghai, March 2019
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley

2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
◼ Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
◼ Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy
◼ Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
◼ Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Network Tech, Policy
& Business Models
Communications
Apps & Services
Telecom-Futurism
Industry Analyst
Papers & Reports

3. Key trends for the next 10-15 years
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI
New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks

4. Wi-Fi has both opportunities & challenges
Good news
- More fixed broadband lines
- More devices & use-cases, esp. IoT
- More use in developing world
- More spectrum
- More entrenched in the Home (mesh, cloud etc)
Bad news
- Worse public login experience
- Flat-rate cellular data
- 5G community better at verticals
- Losing “non-Wi-Fi” 802.11 innovators
- Not enough global community visibility / lobbying
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5. A billion lines of fixed broadband, most with Wi-Fi
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Source: Point Topic
Even 5G FWA still needs Wi-Fi indoors

6. Mesh + Cloud is entrenching home Wi-Fi
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??
?

7. Multiple dimensions for future wireless networks
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March 2019
bpd
bps
Gbps
10m
Non-
critical
Function-
critical
90%
99%
99.9%
Rural2
3
4
1
Steps
from
Internet
3D
Coverage
Bandwidth
Kbps
Importance
Business-
critical
Safety-
critical
Range
<1m
Mbps
And also:
Latency / TSN
Power source
Socioeconomic
Geopolitical
Security model
Mobility
Integration
Bi-directional
Protocols
Lobbying power
1km
>10km
100m
4G / 5G / LPWA /
Satellite / TVWS
Managed
spectrum?Wi-Fi, inc. 11ax, ad
Biz Model
CSP
Private
Amenity
Community
Decentralised
Indoor
Unlicensed /
shared bands?

8. Every vertical & sector has unique wireless requirements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019

9. More spectrum… but still more ambition needed
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Wi-Fi should be aiming
for licensed / shared
bands as well
(802.11 already can)

10. Wi-Fi Competitiveness Scorecard vs. alternative networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
In-Home
Office
Public
Industrial
Outdoors
& mobile
Wi-Fi: whole home
Wi-Fi: poor logonWi-Fi: easy logon
Wi-Fi: single AP
Wi-Fi: enterprise
Wi-Fi: general Wi-Fi: safety critical
Wi-Fi: limited
4G flat-rate
4G flat-rate
4G metered
4G metered
Fibre / Niche 4G private
4G MBB 4G NB-IoT
Wired Ethernet Indoor 4G
Satellite

11. This is unacceptable & will help kill public Wi-Fi
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12. Losing the battle with 4G for public-space network access
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Enter
email

13. This is how public WiFi is done properly
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019

14. “Capillarity” – how many steps from the Internet / core?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019

15. Combinations of multiple networks are inevitable
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Including a beta of
“aggregation mode”

16. The cellular industry is expanding its reach hugely
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
4G / LTE 5G NR
LTE-U
Private
LTE
LTE-M
NB-IoT
5G-U
Private
5G
5G-TSN
URLLC
5G-V2X
5G FWA
5G + MEC
5G NC
3G

17. Should Wi-Fi be an inclusive or exclusive brand?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
5G
3GPP 5G
NR radio
IEEE 802.11
Wi-Fi™
Cool 802.11
innovations
(not “Wi-Fi”)

18. Why doesn’t Wi-Fi have vertical forums & academia like 5G?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019

20. What the Wi-Fi industry needs to do
◼ Look to own as much of the future use-case landscape as possible
 Go (almost) wherever 5G / 3GPP is going
 … in terms of use-case, frequencies & business-models
◼ Defend the consumer market with mesh Wi-Fi + cloud control
◼ Take industrial / verticals Wi-Fi much more seriously, and fast
 Endorse variants intended for licensed / shared spectrum bands
 Engage with Industrial Ethernet / TSN communities more deeply
◼ Wi-Fi Alliance should create a new “Innovation” or “Experimental” track for
“lightweight” certification, with low friction & costs (Wi-Fi-E perhaps?)
 Capture cool new uses & variations of 802.11 for the Wi-Fi brand
 Explicitly recognise that WiFi-E technologies may not interoperate
◼ Stop the stupidity of hotspot log-ins, social connection & privacy abuse
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019

21. www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/
https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
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