Keynote presentation on telcofuturism - the specific analysis of future trends applied to the telecom sector, such as blockchain, maachine-learning, drones & contextual/cognitive computing
1. TelcoFuturism….
… and why it matters to all service providers
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Metaswitch Forum, May 2016
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
2. About Disruptive Analysis
Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting
Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting
Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
Provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs
Everything from videoconferencing to silicon to regulation to IoT to NFV
Not a deep technical specialist or developer
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
3. Communications is more than just “calls” & conferences
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
4. The Future is getting closer, faster
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Predicted 1916
Discovered 2016
DARPA Challenge 2004
Mainstream 2017/18
Released 2009
Mainstream 2014
Invented 2012
Mainstream 2015
Image: Nicolas Halftermeyer
Released 2010
Mainstream 2014
Not just mainstream – but spinoffs & variations proliferating
CRISPR
5. Futurism isn’t just for the crazy guys in the labs any more
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Past: 10-20yrs Scenario Planning
Now: 3-5yrs Foresight
Soon: 1-2yrs Aware
“Sci-Fi” Lab
Concept
Business
Reality
6. The Future has broad drivers, beyond networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Chapter by Dean Bubley:
“The Future of the Phone Call”
Other Chapters cover:
AI & machine-learning
Analytics & Big Data
Contextual computing
Crowds & the Sharing Economy
Wearables & quantified-self
3D-printing
IoT, Robots & drones
Autonomous vehicles
Longevity & human enhancement
Green Tech
Financial systems & money
Political & social change
9. Most telcos & telco execs don’t understand the future
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
10. … and most futurists don’t understand telecoms
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
“Telcos &
banks will all
merge”
“Everything
will be
mobile”
“Wireless
power will be
beamed from
cell towers”
18. Blockchain
Mesh networks
Microbilling
IoT identity
Internal security for SDN
Alternative routing paths
Roaming agreements
Early movers:
Verizon/Filament
Orange Chainforce
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
19. Sources of value in communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Before a call
/ session
Signal / check
availability
Signal
purpose
Timing
Setup &
configuration
Rendezvous
Device
Identity
During a call
/ session
Quality &
acoustics
Handoff
Translation
Realtime
analysis
Relevant data
Multi-party
UI / control
Interop
After a call /
session
Record & tag
Next actions
Ratings
Post-call
analytics
Ephemerality
OUTCOMES
Reason for a
call / session
Triggers
Scheduling
Forms
Choice /
negotiation of
channel
Context
Social
Workflow
Ongoing: Conversations, narratives, reputation, identity
…. this is just a starting point