Presentation given by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis at UK telecom regulator Ofcom's 2019 "Mapping the Future" Spectrum conference in London. 15-minute introduction as part of a forward-looking panel session on possible future 10yr+ visions. Disruptive Analysis presented alongside speakers/panellists from Google & FCC Slides cover future wireless use-cases, potential for future spectum rules & 6G design goals to be energy/CO2-centred, raises questions about harmonisation, and notes that planned use-cases and deployments often overstate near-term potential.

1. Wireless Disruptors & Implications for Spectrum Mgmt
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Ofcom “Mapping the Future”, September 2019
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley

2. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019
September 2019
bpd
bps
Gbps
10m
Non-
critical
Function-
critical
90%
99%
99.9%
Rural
Unlicensed
Spectrum
3D
Coverage
Bandwidth
Kbps
Importance
Business-
critical
Safety-
critical
Range
<1m
Mbps
And also:
Latency
Deterministic
Power source
Socioeconomic
Geopolitical
Security model
Mobility
Integration
Bi-directional
Protocols
Lobbying power
1km
>10km
100m
4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite
/ TVWS / .11ah
Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay
Biz Model
CSP
Private
Amenity
Community
Decentralised
Indoor
Many dimensions for future wireless
Shared
Secondary
Local
Exclusive
Licenses
Sensed
National
Dynamic

3. Future spectrum management: Environmental & CO2 angle
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
6G system-
wider
design
goals
5G power
consump-
tion
Changing
weather &
mmWave
New use-
cases
Resource
needs
direct /
indirect
Balancing
frequency,
MIMO,
power etc

4. From sharing to dynamic spectrum to realtime MNO-aaS
Static allocations
• National MNOs
• P2P licenses
• Manual processes
• High costs / auction
model
• SP-led focus
Basic Spectrum
Sharing
• Local / private /
neutral MNOs
• Some manual, some
SAS-based (CBRS)
• Some innovators
Automated /
dynamic sharing
• Spectrum market-
places inc. 2ndary
• Basic APIs
• Non realtime
• Expert buyers /
integrators
Full Network-aaS
• MNO design /
operation from cloud
• Spectrum, RAN,
core, SIM, transport
• Looks like a toolkit
• Broad channels to
market
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019

5. Will harmonisation be as important in future, as in the past?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019September 2019
(…. and SDR)

6. Politics & practicalities
Patchiness, costs, glitches,
skills, OSS/BSS etc
Substitutes,
margin pressure
obsolescence
Biz case &
products
Adoption &
ecosystem
Distractions & Disruptions: Spectrum & market timing
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019
Hype begins
Pilots &
PoCs
Commercial
launch
Scale &
profitability
Concept
Prototypes
Hype begins PoC
paralysis
Commercial
launch late
Smaller scale &
lower profitability
Concept
Prototypes
Internal Distractions
Initial unrealistic
assumptions on timing
External Disruptions

7. Other areas to consider
◼ Device SDR
◼ Blockchain
◼ Intra-device wireless connections
 Very-short range wireless (eg on-chip)
◼ Better 3-dimensional spectrum rights, maps & tools
◼ More device-to-device comms
◼ Post-Brexit divergence on spectrum
◼ Redefining ITU’s IMT definition beyond just “services”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019

8. www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/
https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019September 2019