2. The components of risk
Physical disaster
Magnitude
Frequency
Duration
Human
vulnerability
Exposure
Location of hazard
Environment
Resistance
Lifestyle and earnings
Health
Resilience
Adjustments
Risk reduction activities
Preparations for disaster
After Ian Davis (2005)
4. Vulnerability is constructed socially
• it is mainly the result of social,
economic, political and cultural
factors in decision-making
• it is becoming harder to reduce.
5. Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.
In the second half of the 20th century
the world experienced increases of:
• 250% in the number of recorded disasters
• 500% in number of disasters with victims
• 500% in the number of affected people
• 1640% in the cost
of insured damage.
• 1500% in the total
cost of disasters Disasters
1900-2010
6. Then (1950s) Now (2013)
Under-reporting of
disasters
More complete
recording
Counting only direct
effects
Quantifying indirect
effects
Smaller population of
hazardous places
Larger population,
greater densities
Less inequality Growing inequality and
marginalisation
Less fixed capital at
risk
Relentless accumulation
of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic
networks
More complex networks
7. • social and technological
complexity are increasing
• fixed capital is being accumulated
• the world is becoming more polarised
• urbanisation and the
growth of "mega-cities".
Societies are becoming
more vulnerable
8. Vulnerability approach
• people, not physical forces, are the
principal cause of risks and disasters
• focus on reducing community vulnerability
• "soft" rather than "hard" approaches
• "bottom-up" (grass roots) approach.
9. A sample of the annual
pattern of casualties
in natural disasters
10. A sample of the annual pattern
of losses in natural disasters
11. Deathtolls
Economic losses
Differential impact of disasters
Developing countries and
depressed urban areas
of developed countries
Developed countries and
the richest cities of
the developing world
14. Vulnerability is...
• the potential degree of loss resulting
from a particular hazard or set
of hazards of a given magnitude
• the potential for harm
• something that is constructed socially
• the inverse of capability
(coping, resilience).
15. UNESCO / UNDRO (1982) Definitions
of Hazard and Risk Terminology
Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss
to a given element or set of elements
at risk resulting from the occurrence
of a hazardous phenomenon of a given
magnitude. It is expressed on a scale
from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss)
16. Vulnerability
Total: life is
generally
precarious
Residual: caused by
lack of modernisation
Newly
generated:
caused by
changes in
circumstances
Delinquent:
caused by
corruption,
negligence,
etc.
Economic:
people lack
adequate
occupation
Technological
technocratic:
caused by
the riskiness
of technology
17. Primary
• cause and effect
Secondary
• interaction of causes
• coincidences
Complex
• complicated
interactions
VULNERABILITY
18. (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure)
Resilience
= Risk
[ → Impact → Response]
Hazard x (Vulnerability / Resilience)
[x Exposure]
= Risk
[ → Impact → Response]
....alternatively:-
19. VulnerabilityHazard
An asset is not
vulnerable unless
it is threatened
by something
A hazard is not
hazardous unless
it threatens
something
RISK
Extreme
events
Elements
at risk
Resilience
Exposure
24. Causes of disaster
natural geophysical,
technological, social
History
single and
cumulative
impact
of past
disasters
Human
cultures
constraints
and
opportunities
IMPACTS
Adaptation
to risk
RESILIENCE
25. Diffusion of information
Perceptual filter
Cultural filter
Emergency not decoded
Emergency decoded
Ignorance
Images
of reality
Symbolic
constructions
Enlightenment
26. Long term
Short term
Emic components
Etic components
METAMORPHOSIS
OF CULTURE
Experiences of culture
[mass-media and consumer culture]
Accumulated cultural traits and beliefs
Inherited cultural background
Ideological
(non-scientific)
interpretations
of disaster
Learned
(scientific)
interpretations
of disaster
30. Technology
as risk
mitigation
Technology
as a source
of vulnerability
Research,
development
and investment
in technology
individual
family
peer group
organisation
community
society
international
Culturalfilter
Sociocentrism Technocentrism
35. Vulnerability = 1 / resilience
Resilience: mechanisms for avoiding
impacts or absorbing them by coping
Coping strategies:
• indigenous
• imported
36. What is resilience [resiliency]?
• a combination of resistance and
adaptation (coping, capacity, capability)
• ability to maintain livelihoods and tenor
of life in the face of disaster shocks
• local autonomy and self-sufficiency.
38. • robustness: resist stress
without loss of function
• redundancy: ability to continue
functioning during periods of disruption
• ingenuity: ability to identify
problems and mobilise resources
• rapidity: ability to satisfy objectives
and priorities so as to reduce losses.
The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-
40. needs to be shortenedneeds to be
lengthened
preparation
for the
next event
warning
and
evacuation
recovery and
reconstruction
repair of
basic
services
emergency
management
and rescue
isolation
impact
needs to be
strengthenedRisk reduction and disaster mitigation
44. What is sustainable vulnerability reduction?
• it is centred upon the local level
(but is harmonised from above)
• through consultation it has the support
and involvement of the population
• plans tackle all the phases of the
disaster cycle - in an integrative way
• it is a fundamental, every-day service
for the population and is taken seriously.
60. Vulnerability
• Dimensions
• Components
• Measures
Exposure Sensitivity
Capacity
to adapt
VULNERA-
BILITY
Physical dimensions
Age of the
infrastructure
Age and
income of the
population
Demo-
graphy
Technology
Res-
ponse
Management
structureAccess to
information and
technology
Exposed
res-
ources
Exposed
population
Intensity
Frequency
Location
Number
Wealth and
well being
Tax
revenues
Emergency
plans
Level of
education
Information
services
61. Analysis
• registered
• archived
• forgotten
• ignored
Vulnerability
maintained
-
• utilised
• adopted
• learned
Disaster
risk
reduced
+
Lessons
Past
events
The process of
disaster risk
reduction
(DRR)
62. A guide to recognizing
vulnerability in the field
63. How to estimate vulnerability in the field
Elements:
• buildings and physical structures
• lifelines and infrastructure
• patterns of activity
that put people at risk
• perceptions of hazard
• concentrations and patterns
of elements at risk.
64. NB: Most of the
following slides show
post hoc indications
of vulnerability.
65. Squatter settlement
in Bangladesh Flood level
Normal river level
Rather than mitigating the sources of
vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is
maintaining, exporting and reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies
75. Poor building
quality
(low seismic
resistance)
Proximity
to epicentre
and fault
rupture
Topographic
amplification
Sedimentary
amplification
Q E
T S
Concentration
of casualties
C
C = f { E,Q,S,T }
Deaths
Injuries
Q E
T S
Vulnerability
to earthquakes
76. 'Window' of active fault
with mullion slickensides
and normal (vertical
downwards) displacement
Seismic consolidation-
compaction subsidence
at fault boundary
86. Rim of caldera blasted
apart in A.D. 79
Cone active
A.D. 1631-1944
Europe's most densely populated municipality
(population 80,000 in 4.5 sq.km)
87. 0 1 2 3 4 5 km
Tyrrhenian
Sea
Mt Vesuvius
Portici
Ercolano
( and Herculaneum)
Mt Somma
Naples
Barra
Pompeii
Torre
del Greco
Torre
Annunziata
San Giuseppe
Vesuviano
Main lava flow, pyroclastic flow
and lahar hazard areas
Densely
settled areas
Tephra
fallout areas
Population at risk
min: 650,000
max: 3.1 million