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The Context of Disasters
Search for Root Causes
David Alexander
University College London
Mobilising Science to
Implement the Sendai
Framework
Jan. 2016
We should consider our world as it is.
Alan Kurdi 2015
Science encourages us to look at reality selectively, not
holistically: yet we must look at all sides of the problem.
Human
misery
●poverty
●disease
●malnutrition
●conflict
●displacement
●disasters
... and climate change...?
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
“ORTHODOX” MODEL
PHYSICAL
EVENT
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
PHYSICAL
EVENT
CURRENT NEEDS
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
CULTURE HISTORY
PHYSICAL
EVENTS
CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES
Disaster
Risk
Reduction
Culture
Economics
Access to
knowledge
Theweight
ofhistory
CONSTRAINTS
Root
causes
Vulnerability Hazard
Risk Impact
context
The "egg hypothesis" Disaster
• prima facie causes
• root causes
• vulnerabilities
• dynamic pressures
Context
• general
vulnerability
• poverty
• deprivation
• marginalisation
Disaster
Marginalisation,
impoverishment
Resilience?
RESILIENCE:
as a material has brittle
strength and ductility:
society must have an optimum
combination of resistance to
hazard impacts and ability
to adapt to them.
"Resilience" viewed as a form of oppression
New Orleans, post-Katrina
the agenda of neo-liberal urbanism.
DISASTER
Destructiondamage casualties
Capital Labour
(fast) reformation (slower) repopulation
temporary boom
in employmentReconstruction
Recoverycapital displaces labour
unemployment and
social consequences
Slump
Reckless
lending
Reckless
borrowing
DEBT DEMOCRACY
Austerity
Inequality
Marginalisation
Disaffection
Disaster
impacts
Growing
vulnerability
Capital is winning against labour:
when will the tide turn?
Tax havens and world trade, inequality.
• it is not necessarily harmed by disaster
• does capital safeguard people or itself?
The cheapness and redundancy of labour
is a form of disenfranchisement.
Capital as a resource for
disaster mitigation and recovery
• consolidate power structures
• augment profits, concentrate wealth
• allow introduction of conveniently
repressive measures
• permit gratuitous social engineering.
The economic and social
VALUE of disasters
Adverse
circumstances
Natural hazards and
anthropogenic threats
Specific
vulnerability
General
vulnerability
Susceptibility
to disaster
London would be a very resilient city were
it not for the high price of property.
• housing agenda over-influenced
by foreign investment companies
• shortage of housing that is
not for investment purposes
• large portion of disposable income spent
on housing, less for other purposes
• poor quality and vulnerable housing
is a feature of the property market
• personal and family security reduced.
This situation leaves
people living on the
margins of society.
For whom is resilience?
London's
Grenfell Tower
Fire Tragedy
• London Borough of Kensington and Chelsea
• 24-storey residential building, 129 apartments
• constructed in 1970, renovated in 2015-2016
• 14 June 2017 fire: 72 dead, 74 injured, 65 rescued.
Grenfell Tower
• an enclave of poverty in
Britain's richest municipality
• In a year and a half, almost all official news
from Grenfell Tower has been negative:
much of it has been scandalous
• Coroners’ recommendations from previous fires ignored
• Cladding used in the renovation was not fire-resistant
• Building codes had been weakened
• Enforcement of codes was left to construction industry
• Residents’ concerns were not listened to.
Some context of the fire tragedy:-
• Fire service was not geared up for high-rise rescue
• The wrong advice was given to residents
• Local authority response to disaster was ineffective
• Suffering of survivors increased by
inappropriate responses to the disaster.
Contributory factors:-
• public enquiry
• litigation
• rehousing and rehabilitation
• compensation
• demolition.
£1 billion:-
• 311 residential tower blocks deemed unsafe in UK
• major evacuations in Camden, London
• fire wardens hired at high cost
• disputes over who pays for recladding
• apartments in tower blocks lose their sale value.
Cascading effects of the Grenfell Tower tragedy:-
• failure to manage risk as it affects poor people
• commercial lobbying & profit weaken safety regulations
• ideological retreat from good, safe public housing
• London needs basic service workers:
where to house them?
• government elitism thrown into sharp relief.
More context:-
Conclusion: the Grenfell Tower tragedy
is an artefact of neoliberal policies
and their effect upon basic safety.
Human mobility
Migration
crisis
Disaster
('natural',
technological,
social. intentional)
What if...?
• refugees of war, conflict, torture and oppression
• "economic migrants"
• the displaced
• "opportunists" – e.g. myself.
Human mobility
Migration
• voluntary (incentive)
• induced (imperative)
• forced [trafficked]
Human mobility
• temporary (time-limited, limit unknown)
• semi-permanent (time limit unknown)
• permanent (emigration/immigration)
• statelessness.
• a reaction to global hegemony
• wars and proxy wars -
the struggle for power
• globalisation of production
and the exploitation of labour
• a reaction to the mobility
and concentration of capital.
Human mobility
Have we passed a threshold towards a new organisation
of society in which human mobility is much more
central and important?
Time to re-examine notions
of geographical inertia.
Places remain, people move.
welfare mobility
sovereignty identity
entitlement
proxy
wars
?
What is welfare?
The provision of care to a
minimum acceptable standard
to people who are unable
adequately to look after
themselves.
But we also need to focus
on what welfare is NOT...
Remittances: alternative welfare
Haiti, Nepal, the Philippines
Xenophobia
Distrust of
unfamiliar
people
Compassion
Desire
to help
refugees
Rejectionism
It is not
our problem
Distancing
Not in my
back yard
The role of mass cognitive dissonance
Charity
Willingness
to donate
Humanity
Living
together
in harmony
Currently the links between DRR and
human mobility are relatively slight.
There are abundant opportunities for them
to become more significant and powerful.
Antecedents: 1980 southern Italian
earthquake and Italian Government
policy on induced migration
Disaster and forced migration
- in a surprising variety of contexts
Climate change Terrorism
Displacement
and migration
Pandemics
and epidemics
Population increase
Environmentalchange
Conflict
Technological
disasters and
major incidents
'Natural'
disasters
Justice system
Rights Responsibilities
Moral
Ethical
Legal
Constitution
Disaster
Context of
disaster
Conclusions
Since 1970 the world has changed in
directions not mirrored in the concurrent
development of disaster theory.
Disaster Risk Reduction
or disaster risk creation?
Risk
amplification
factors
Risk
mitigation
factors
Total
vulnerability
Risk perception
factors- +positivenegative
DIALECTIC
Organisational
systems:
management
Social
systems:
behaviour
Natural
systems:
function
Technical
systems:
malfunction
VulnerabilityHazard
Resilience
Political
systems:
decisions
SUSTAINABILITY
OF DISASTER
RISK REDUCTION
DAILY
RISKS
(e.g.unem-
ployment,
poverty)
EMERGING
RISKS
(e.g. climate
change,
pandemics)
GENERAL
SUSTAINABILITY
(e.g. lifestyles, economic
activities, environment)
MAJOR DISASTER
RISKS
(e.g. floods, drought,
landslides, heatwaves)
Thank you
for listening!
david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
www.emergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.net/dealexander

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