1. Emergency planning and management of the flood hazard Prof. David Alexander Global Risk Forum Davos

4. The challenges of emergency planning Reduce unmet needs Rationalise imported assistance and make it more timely Increase local self-sufficiency

5. Emergency planning: single hazard or all hazards? Modern emergency planning is generic in that it should tackle all probable hazards that threaten the area of its jurisdiction, with specific chapters on managing individual risks Planning to tackle all known risks is more efficient than planning for single hazards.

8. Importance of risk and hazardmicrozonation microzonation is costly, often difficult to get approved, but essential to accurate risk planning

10. a process, not merely an end in itself

11. flexible and constantly updated

13. Synthesis: abbreviated plan Details: data, annexes, appendices "Architecture" of an emergency plan Generalised Detailed Plan: structure

14. Every element of the emergency can be modelled with scenario methodology HAZARD HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS MITIGATION VULNERABILITY RESPONSE IMPACT RISK

15. hypothetical ingredients historical analysis initial conditions reference event time zero evaluation of the progress of the scenario consequences at time 1 evolution consequences at time 2 develop- ment of the scenario evolution consequences at time n formal evaluation of the outcome of the scenario Scenario methodology Emergency Planning

16. Physical impact Human consequences LARGE LARGE chain of consequences SMALL SMALL

18. dissemination of low-quality information

19. a possible dependence on methods andequipment that might not function.

23. Elements of planning for flood emergencies

24. PHYSICAL SYSTEM floodplains, watersheds, wetlands, coasts, etc. Hazards and environmental perception Environmental impacts Hazards and risks Socioeconomic data LEGAL AUTHORITIES national, state, regional, provincial and municipal governments, private landowners LAND USE forms of investment and development in floodplains Protective actions structural projects laws and codes legal decisions insurance schemes alarm systems civil protection services A MODEL OF RESPONSES TO FLOOD RISKS

26. management of urban hydrology

27. consolidation of river banks and bedsFlood protection for example, levées and walls, drainage channels, river diversion schemes.

28. input of water to urban drainage basin (rapid rise, shortened warning) urban transformation of discharge rates Discharge, Q input of water to rural drainage basin Time, t Effect of urbanisation on flood propensity

31. Particular risks are associated with urban areas located on alluvial fans

34. monitoring and warning

37. monitoring and warning

39. DEFINITION OF THE FLOODPLAIN IN TERMS OF URBAN PLANNING "Regulatory floodplain" Margins of floodable area Margins of floodable area Floodway Essential protection level 100-year flood level Urbanisation Urbanisation Necessary structural modifications River channel

40. Example of an aspect of emergency planning that is frequently neglected: the need for a veterinary plan.

43. General public Mass media publicity campaigns Journalists Pool of accredited journalists Special groups At risk groups information flows interviews & information field exercises Civil protection services Emergency managers press office of C.P. service volunteers

44. Floods do not respect political boundaries There is a particular need for mutual aid agreements

45. Flood perception

49. The lessons of this example:- the motives for not taking advantage of the protection offered (flood insurance) were complex, but until disaster struck there was a consistent tendency to understimate the risk.

50. Another example: Perceiving the risk means verifying its existence THE SOCIAL PROCESS OF EVACUATION Other news of imminent disaster REMAIN IMPACT Confirm, verify, decide Activate the decision Warning information Choice of destination Dissemination of information EVACUATE Social context of the response to the warning Social context and technology to warnings

51. When there is a flood: emergency management

52. shortage reduced by efficient mobilisation supply shortage demand time Disaster On the first day of a typical emergency, 90% of assistance to victims will be supplied locally Therefore, if local resources are insufficient,so will be the relief operations supply urban SAR demand time Disaster

53. Summary of medical emergency response

54. Classification of non-fatal injuries in the 1993 Missouri River flood (USA) Sprained limbs Lacerations Bruises and similar lesions Other physical injuries Sin perforations Animal bites Burns Electric shock Unclassified Number of cases

55. EMERGENCY REQUIREMENTS GENERATED BY FLOOD DISASTERS IMPACT MASS EVACUATION WATER SUPPLY TO PRIORITY GROUPS PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES EPIDEMIOLOGY PUBLIC HEALTH MONITORING AND CONTROL OF DISEASES INJURIES AND MEDICAL ASSISTANCE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE TO VICTIMS FOOD DISTRIBUTION DAYS AFTER IMPACT

56. Mortuary area Advance medical post Primary staging area Medical post for personnel Incident command post Triage area Secondary staging area Control post Ambulance loading area Rescue loop Minor injuries treatment Mass media post MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT Helicopter ambulance Outer cordon Inner cordon Managing the emergency with incident command system

58. Drivers tend to underestimate the risks of travelling by car in flood situations.

59. Practical considerations: In urban areas, rubber boats can become holed by underwater obstructions: aluminium boats are more appropriate in flood situations.

61. flexible

62. based on accurate zonation

64. Floods tend to be repetitive events, in many cases with quite short recurrence intervals (return periods). This does not prohibit the occurrence of an event of very high magnitude and low frequency....

65. Thank you for listening! Prof. David Alexander D.Alexander@alice.it