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Hazards, Risks
and Disasters I



    David Alexander
    Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)
Plan of this two-part lesson:-

• Theoretical basis

• Organisation of the field

• Emergency planning and management

• Information, perception and education

• Conclusion: challenges for the future.
A basis of theory
Synonyms and approximations




            Resilience
Some characteristics of large emergencies
• events that cannot be managed
  with normal resources
• 90% of emergencies do not
  require special procedures
• 10% require a qualitative change
  in management techniques
• the context of risk and vulnerability
  can transform an incident into a disaster.
International
                Catastrophe

                   National
                   Disaster

                Major incident
                  Regional
                  Municipal
                  Incident


...but there are no quantitative definitions...
Partly after                    Major
                 Incidents                    Disasters      Catastrophes
Tierney (2008)                 incidents

                    Very       Generally     Widespread       Extremely
Impact
                  localised    localised     and severe         large
                                                Inter-           Major
                   Local      Some mutual
Response                                     governmental    international
                  efforts      assistance
                                               response        response
                  Standard     Emergency      Emergency          Plans
Plans and
                  operating       plans       plans fully     potentially
procedures
                 procedures     activated      activated     overwhelmed
                                             Interregional       Local
                   Local      Some outside
Resources                                     transfer of     resources
                 resources     assistance
                                               resources     overwhelmed
Public       Very little       Mainly not     Public very    Extensively
involvement involvement         involved       involved       involved

                  Very few        Few           Major          Massive
Recovery
                 challenges    challenges     challenges      challenges
Emergency
    Restoration of   planning and
    basic services   organisation
                     of security
                       systems


Safety and
 security
 measures


   Emergency         Warning and
   action and        preparations;
      damage            damage
    limitation        prevention
    measures           measures
Anatomy of a major incident
                                                   Funerals
                                                  Debriefings
                                                 Anniversaries
                                                 Plan revision
                                                   Inquests
                                                Public enquiries
           Major                                     Trials
           incident                                 Awards
                                                   Memorials
           declared                                 Training
                                                  Court cases
                      Consolidation     Recovery
                         phase           phase
Response




             Emergency                Investigation
            isolation
           phase                              Stand-down
                          Time
Hazard
                    monitoring &
 Disaster           forecasting
management
             Policies
  Major      Plans        Human &
 incident    Procedures    material
management   Protocols    resources
 Incident
management
                     Population
                    (community)
                     protection
Population
                (community)       Plans,
                 protection    procedures,
                                protocols

               Disaster risk
                 reduction
  Hazard
forecasting,                      Human
 monitoring,     Incident      and material
    etc.        management      resources
Community disaster planning
    Volunteerism                            Donations

        Self-organisation            Community
                                      resources


        Organisation              Resources

         Imposed                  Governmental
         organisation                resources

    Laws, protocols, directives
Standards, norms, guidelines       International resources
International:
                        exchange and support

                    Nation: policies of
 Volontary      compatibility, harmonisation
  sector:           and co-ordination
support and
integration   Province, region, state, county:
                 co-ordination, assistance

   Private     Municipality or other local
   sector:   authority: emergency operations
 integration
                         Disaster
Harmonisation from above
        (national or regional levels)


      Central
                               Devolution
      control



    Organisation and growth from below
(local level: municipalities, volunteers, etc.)
Local incident    Local response                A
             Threshold of local capacity
Small regional
                  Co-ordinated local response   B
incident
        Threshold of intermunicipal capacity
Major regional    Intermunicipal and
                                                B
incident          regional response
           Threshold of regional capacity
National          Intermunicipal, regional
                                                C
disaster          and national response
           Threshold of national capacity
International     Ditto, with more
                                                C
catastrophe       international assistance
Devolution         Centrism
 Nation state      Nation state




 Municipality      Municipality
Civil protection   Civil defence
Disaster relief as a barter
       market for resources

DONATE                     ALLOCATE

    Global             National

    Supernational      Regional

    National              Local

REQUEST                    DEMAND
The pressures of devolution and centrism
The natural tendency   The less than natural
from above             tendency from above
  subordinate                    harmonise
  control                        negotiate
  repress                          support
  restrict                   accommodate

  act autonomously                conform
  empower                             cede
  enable                            comply
  liberate                          submit
The natural tendency   The less than natural
from below             tendency from below
Organisational                    Natural
systems:                         systems:
management                        function



 Hazard                       Vulnerability

                 Resilience
Social                          Technical
systems:                         systems:
behaviour                      malfunction
Lesson: There are functional
 differences between the responses
to each level of incident or disaster.
Civil Protection
and Civil Defence
Emergency preparedness
has reached a
crossroads....
A new class
    Natural:
  earthquakes,
                    Technological:
                     toxic spills,
     floods,        transportation
landslides, etc.    crashes, etc.

             Forms of
             disaster
     Social:        Intentional:
  riots, mass         acts of

    of disaster?
  gatherings,
demonstrations
                     terrorism
"Civil        Civil
 contingencies" protection        The
 management                     security
                                industry
                Emergencies
               and disasters

"Homeland                        Business
 security"                      continuity
                 Complex       management
               emergencies
Civil protection:
 What are the what degree of          What role for
 limits of civil political support?   the security
 contingencies                         industry in
 management?                           the general
                                       emergency?

                    Emergencies
    Homeland       and disasters
                                           What
    security:
                                        relationship
  is reduction
                                        of business
in civil liberties
                                         continuity
  acceptable?
                 Complex emergencies:   management
                   How much aid from     with civil
                    donor countries?    authorities?
Natural         Anthropogenic
                Techno-               Inten-
       Natural             Social
                 logical              tional
      disasters           disasters
                disasters           disasters

                                              Civil
                                           defence
Civil
protection
Civil contingencies
and Resilience
                                       "Homeland
                                         Security"
Evolving                                 Large
strategic                              technological
situation                                hazards
            Instability    Complex
             threats       hazards
                                         'Na-tech'
                 Civil Defence            (hybrid)
                Civil Protection          hazards
          Enhanced           Natural
       natural hazards       hazards
Evolving                                  Major
climate                                 geophysical
change                                    events
Armed aggression
 on the part of states       Natural disasters

   Civil defence           Civil protection




"Homeland security"      "Civil contingencies"
  (civil defence)             (resilience)
   Armed aggression
                            "Generic" disasters
     on the part of
  groups of dissidents
Paramilitary forces                  PMF
      (National Guard)
                                    PF          MF
Police                 Military
forces                 forces
                                                Italy

  Fire                   Public      FB         PA
brigades             administrations      CVF
      Civilian volunteer                  PMF

      PMF forces                    PF          MF
PF             MF
               USA                  UK


FB            PA                    FB          PA
      CVF                                 CVF
Command
       Locus of      function
        control      principle

Tension of                 Spectrum of
 opposites                 alternatives

       Locus of      Support
     collaboration   function
       (support)     principle
Order..................Chaos
  Locus of
                 Directed.......Ungovernable
   control
                Control.......Loss of control



                Autonomy.........Constraint
  Locus of
collaboration    Initiative.......Obey orders
  (support)
                Collaboration.."Freelancing"
Military                       Civilian

Armed                Civil administration
forces          Volunteers (civil society)
                     Emergency services
(army)
                           [residual role]
Civil defence             Civil protection

Command and control       Co-ordination
                       and co-operation
Chain of command              Autonomy
Emergency management:
         an evolutionary approach
 Civil defence...............Civil protection

 Proxy                    Participatory

Command and control            Collaboration
Vertical chain                  Task forces
of command              Population consulted
Population excluded             and included
Law and order                Problem solving
Secrecy                            Openness
Military aid to civil
     authorities and communities

 Humanitarian            Domestic
  assistance          disaster relief
 Foreign civil         Domestic civil
 institutions:         institutions:
 • local               • local
 • regional            • regional
 • national            • national
International organisations and NGOs:
           UN, IFRC, etc.
Disaster Risk Reduction
          Resilience
Civil Contingencies Management
       Civil Protection
          Disaster
         Management

       Broader   Changing
     scope and   objectives
      outcomes   of emergency
                 management
Technical    Organisational      Social

 Hazard           Decision
                  to warn       Warning


                                 General
Scientists     Administrators
                                  Public

                   Risk
Evaluation     communication    Protective
                                  action


          The warning process
Lesson: There are functional
 differences between the responses
to each level of incident or disaster.
Counter-Terrorism
Homeland security

• the age of CBRN?
• civil protection with a
  more restricted scope?
• emergency planning dominated
  by counter-terrorism preparations
• the resurgence of civil defence
• secrecy: "the public
  does not need to know".
• Terrorism is a form of
  teleological disaster (i.e. piloted)

• it is potentially infinitely mutable

• designing remedies is a
  very expensive process

• the scenarios are highly debatable.
Aum Shinrikyo
   (the "Religion of Supreme Truth")


20 March 1995 attack on
five Tokyo metro trains:-
• 5,510 people affected
• 278 hospitals involved
• 98 of them admitted 1,046 inpatients
• 688 patients transported by ambulance
• 4,812 made their own way to hospital.
Aum Shinrikyo attack (1995)

Dead:                  12
Critically injured:    17
Seriously ill:         37
Moderately ill:       984
Slightly ill:         332

• 110 hospital staff and 10% of
  first responders intoxicated

• "Worried well": 4,112 (85% of patients).
The case of Alexander Litvinenko

• a small, concentrated attack
  with a highly toxic substance:   210Po


• 30 localities contaminated

• tests on hundreds of people

• a strain on many different agencies
• problems of determining who was
  responsible for costs of clean-up.
PPE level A
  (contaminant unknown)               'Hot' area
             PPE level B            (contaminated)
    (contaminant known)
                                  'Warm' area
   Medical                      (decontamination)
  staff and             PPE level C
    first
 responders                     'Cold' area
                PPE level D (clean treatment)
                             >300 m upwind

PPE=personal protection equipment
The principal effect
    of terrorism on the
        general public
  could be, not any direct
   involvement of people
     in an incident, but
      the disruption of
     normal daily life...

...with huge costs to society.
Laboratory       Nuclear
       error with    emission (NR)
     CBR emissions

Industrial      Terrorist     Chemical,
or military    attack with    biological
 accident     C, B, R or N   or nuclear
 with CNR                      warfare
              contaminants      (CBN)
 emissions

         Disease
                     Sabotage with
       epidemic or
                     poisonous agent
      pandemic (B)
Industrial    Medical       Nuclear
  accident     accident      accident



               People
               (victims)
 Epiphytotic                 Epizootic
(food chain)               (food chain)
                CBRN
                attack
Counter-terrorism activity

Organisation            Stockpiling
• procedures            • equipment
• event scenarios       • supplies
• emergency plans

Intelligence            Training
• collection            • plan dissemination
• interpretation        • exercises
• warning
                       Involvement of civil protection
Surveillance             Analysis
• automatic (CCTV)       • laboratory
• manual (personnel)     • forensic
Lesson: counter-terrorism activities have
had a profound impact on the organisation
  of other forms of disaster response.
Planning
Emergency         Emergency
procedures       co-ordination
                     plan
      Spontaneous
     imnprovisation




          Emergency
         environment
Policies
             Command systems
             • operations centres
  Plans      • task forces
             • communications
             • chains of command
Procedures


Operations      Results
Hierarchical
 Government,              divisions
  healthcare,
                                 National,
commerce, etc.
                                 regional,
Functional                      local, etc.
 divisions
                    Division
                      and
                  integration
                                   Geographical
       Police,                       divisions
     Ambulance,                     Catchments,
     Fire, etc.                     jurisdictions,
     Organisational                  areas, etc.
       divisions
Emergency response
     planning              Incident
    Permanent emergency plan
    Contingency planning in
    the pre-emergency phase (days)
    Operational planning
    Short-term strategic
    planning (hours → days)
    Short-term tactical
    planning (hours)
Permanent emergency plan
                                Aftermath
Monitoring Strategic,
prediction tactical & operational
& warning planning

                   Business continuity plan

                             Recovery and
                            reconstruction
                                  planning
      Disaster
HOSPITAL                            AIRPORT AND
      AND HEALTH                            TRANSPORT
        SYSTEM                              EMERGENCY
      EMERGENCY                               PLANS
         PLAN



                          REGIONAL AND
  MUTUAL      MUNICIPAL     COUNTY OR      NATIONAL
ASSISTANCE    EMERGENCY    PROVINCIAL    EMERGENCY PLAN
   PACTS        PLAN        EMERGENCY
                              PLANS



      INDUSTRIAL
          AND                                CULTURAL
      COMMERCIAL                             HERITAGE
       EMERGENCY                            EMERGENCY
         PLANS                                 PLAN
Disaster      Co-ordinated
    Disaster                    EMS Disaster
               in the system
in the medical                     plans
                 of medical
     centre
                   centres
                                          Disaster
                            Disaster
           Disaster                       planning
                          planning for
       in the external                 for the system
                          the medical
        environment                      of medical
                             centre
                                           centres
                                  Disaster
                                planning for
                                the external
                                environment
Planning            Preparation
    • scenarios         • education & training
    • risk analysis     • exercises
    • emergency plans   • plan dissemination
    • protocols         • revision of plans




Organisation                Resources
• comand structure      •   materials
• task forces           •   vehicles, equipment
• operations centres    •   communications
• communications        •   manpower
Lesson: planning for emergencies and crises
should be a continuous process, not an end.
Thank you for
         your attention!




          David Alexander
            d.alexander@alice.it
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
 www.slideshare.net/dealexander

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Hazards Risks Disasters 1

  • 1. Hazards, Risks and Disasters I David Alexander Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)
  • 2. Plan of this two-part lesson:- • Theoretical basis • Organisation of the field • Emergency planning and management • Information, perception and education • Conclusion: challenges for the future.
  • 3. A basis of theory
  • 5. Some characteristics of large emergencies • events that cannot be managed with normal resources • 90% of emergencies do not require special procedures • 10% require a qualitative change in management techniques • the context of risk and vulnerability can transform an incident into a disaster.
  • 6. International Catastrophe National Disaster Major incident Regional Municipal Incident ...but there are no quantitative definitions...
  • 7. Partly after Major Incidents Disasters Catastrophes Tierney (2008) incidents Very Generally Widespread Extremely Impact localised localised and severe large Inter- Major Local Some mutual Response governmental international efforts assistance response response Standard Emergency Emergency Plans Plans and operating plans plans fully potentially procedures procedures activated activated overwhelmed Interregional Local Local Some outside Resources transfer of resources resources assistance resources overwhelmed Public Very little Mainly not Public very Extensively involvement involvement involved involved involved Very few Few Major Massive Recovery challenges challenges challenges challenges
  • 8. Emergency Restoration of planning and basic services organisation of security systems Safety and security measures Emergency Warning and action and preparations; damage damage limitation prevention measures measures
  • 9. Anatomy of a major incident Funerals Debriefings Anniversaries Plan revision Inquests Public enquiries Major Trials incident Awards Memorials declared Training Court cases Consolidation Recovery phase phase Response Emergency Investigation isolation phase Stand-down Time
  • 10. Hazard monitoring & Disaster forecasting management Policies Major Plans Human & incident Procedures material management Protocols resources Incident management Population (community) protection
  • 11. Population (community) Plans, protection procedures, protocols Disaster risk reduction Hazard forecasting, Human monitoring, Incident and material etc. management resources
  • 12. Community disaster planning Volunteerism Donations Self-organisation Community resources Organisation Resources Imposed Governmental organisation resources Laws, protocols, directives Standards, norms, guidelines International resources
  • 13. International: exchange and support Nation: policies of Volontary compatibility, harmonisation sector: and co-ordination support and integration Province, region, state, county: co-ordination, assistance Private Municipality or other local sector: authority: emergency operations integration Disaster
  • 14. Harmonisation from above (national or regional levels) Central Devolution control Organisation and growth from below (local level: municipalities, volunteers, etc.)
  • 15. Local incident Local response A Threshold of local capacity Small regional Co-ordinated local response B incident Threshold of intermunicipal capacity Major regional Intermunicipal and B incident regional response Threshold of regional capacity National Intermunicipal, regional C disaster and national response Threshold of national capacity International Ditto, with more C catastrophe international assistance
  • 16. Devolution Centrism Nation state Nation state Municipality Municipality Civil protection Civil defence
  • 17. Disaster relief as a barter market for resources DONATE ALLOCATE Global National Supernational Regional National Local REQUEST DEMAND
  • 18. The pressures of devolution and centrism The natural tendency The less than natural from above tendency from above subordinate harmonise control negotiate repress support restrict accommodate act autonomously conform empower cede enable comply liberate submit The natural tendency The less than natural from below tendency from below
  • 19. Organisational Natural systems: systems: management function Hazard Vulnerability Resilience Social Technical systems: systems: behaviour malfunction
  • 20. Lesson: There are functional differences between the responses to each level of incident or disaster.
  • 23. A new class Natural: earthquakes, Technological: toxic spills, floods, transportation landslides, etc. crashes, etc. Forms of disaster Social: Intentional: riots, mass acts of of disaster? gatherings, demonstrations terrorism
  • 24. "Civil Civil contingencies" protection The management security industry Emergencies and disasters "Homeland Business security" continuity Complex management emergencies
  • 25. Civil protection: What are the what degree of What role for limits of civil political support? the security contingencies industry in management? the general emergency? Emergencies Homeland and disasters What security: relationship is reduction of business in civil liberties continuity acceptable? Complex emergencies: management How much aid from with civil donor countries? authorities?
  • 26. Natural Anthropogenic Techno- Inten- Natural Social logical tional disasters disasters disasters disasters Civil defence Civil protection Civil contingencies and Resilience "Homeland Security"
  • 27. Evolving Large strategic technological situation hazards Instability Complex threats hazards 'Na-tech' Civil Defence (hybrid) Civil Protection hazards Enhanced Natural natural hazards hazards Evolving Major climate geophysical change events
  • 28. Armed aggression on the part of states Natural disasters Civil defence Civil protection "Homeland security" "Civil contingencies" (civil defence) (resilience) Armed aggression "Generic" disasters on the part of groups of dissidents
  • 29. Paramilitary forces PMF (National Guard) PF MF Police Military forces forces Italy Fire Public FB PA brigades administrations CVF Civilian volunteer PMF PMF forces PF MF PF MF USA UK FB PA FB PA CVF CVF
  • 30. Command Locus of function control principle Tension of Spectrum of opposites alternatives Locus of Support collaboration function (support) principle
  • 31. Order..................Chaos Locus of Directed.......Ungovernable control Control.......Loss of control Autonomy.........Constraint Locus of collaboration Initiative.......Obey orders (support) Collaboration.."Freelancing"
  • 32. Military Civilian Armed Civil administration forces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services (army) [residual role] Civil defence Civil protection Command and control Co-ordination and co-operation Chain of command Autonomy
  • 33. Emergency management: an evolutionary approach Civil defence...............Civil protection Proxy Participatory Command and control Collaboration Vertical chain Task forces of command Population consulted Population excluded and included Law and order Problem solving Secrecy Openness
  • 34. Military aid to civil authorities and communities Humanitarian Domestic assistance disaster relief Foreign civil Domestic civil institutions: institutions: • local • local • regional • regional • national • national International organisations and NGOs: UN, IFRC, etc.
  • 35. Disaster Risk Reduction Resilience Civil Contingencies Management Civil Protection Disaster Management Broader Changing scope and objectives outcomes of emergency management
  • 36. Technical Organisational Social Hazard Decision to warn Warning General Scientists Administrators Public Risk Evaluation communication Protective action The warning process
  • 37. Lesson: There are functional differences between the responses to each level of incident or disaster.
  • 39. Homeland security • the age of CBRN? • civil protection with a more restricted scope? • emergency planning dominated by counter-terrorism preparations • the resurgence of civil defence • secrecy: "the public does not need to know".
  • 40. • Terrorism is a form of teleological disaster (i.e. piloted) • it is potentially infinitely mutable • designing remedies is a very expensive process • the scenarios are highly debatable.
  • 41. Aum Shinrikyo (the "Religion of Supreme Truth") 20 March 1995 attack on five Tokyo metro trains:- • 5,510 people affected • 278 hospitals involved • 98 of them admitted 1,046 inpatients • 688 patients transported by ambulance • 4,812 made their own way to hospital.
  • 42. Aum Shinrikyo attack (1995) Dead: 12 Critically injured: 17 Seriously ill: 37 Moderately ill: 984 Slightly ill: 332 • 110 hospital staff and 10% of first responders intoxicated • "Worried well": 4,112 (85% of patients).
  • 43. The case of Alexander Litvinenko • a small, concentrated attack with a highly toxic substance: 210Po • 30 localities contaminated • tests on hundreds of people • a strain on many different agencies • problems of determining who was responsible for costs of clean-up.
  • 44. PPE level A (contaminant unknown) 'Hot' area PPE level B (contaminated) (contaminant known) 'Warm' area Medical (decontamination) staff and PPE level C first responders 'Cold' area PPE level D (clean treatment) >300 m upwind PPE=personal protection equipment
  • 45. The principal effect of terrorism on the general public could be, not any direct involvement of people in an incident, but the disruption of normal daily life... ...with huge costs to society.
  • 46. Laboratory Nuclear error with emission (NR) CBR emissions Industrial Terrorist Chemical, or military attack with biological accident C, B, R or N or nuclear with CNR warfare contaminants (CBN) emissions Disease Sabotage with epidemic or poisonous agent pandemic (B)
  • 47. Industrial Medical Nuclear accident accident accident People (victims) Epiphytotic Epizootic (food chain) (food chain) CBRN attack
  • 48. Counter-terrorism activity Organisation Stockpiling • procedures • equipment • event scenarios • supplies • emergency plans Intelligence Training • collection • plan dissemination • interpretation • exercises • warning Involvement of civil protection Surveillance Analysis • automatic (CCTV) • laboratory • manual (personnel) • forensic
  • 49. Lesson: counter-terrorism activities have had a profound impact on the organisation of other forms of disaster response.
  • 51. Emergency Emergency procedures co-ordination plan Spontaneous imnprovisation Emergency environment
  • 52. Policies Command systems • operations centres Plans • task forces • communications • chains of command Procedures Operations Results
  • 53. Hierarchical Government, divisions healthcare, National, commerce, etc. regional, Functional local, etc. divisions Division and integration Geographical Police, divisions Ambulance, Catchments, Fire, etc. jurisdictions, Organisational areas, etc. divisions
  • 54. Emergency response planning Incident Permanent emergency plan Contingency planning in the pre-emergency phase (days) Operational planning Short-term strategic planning (hours → days) Short-term tactical planning (hours)
  • 55. Permanent emergency plan Aftermath Monitoring Strategic, prediction tactical & operational & warning planning Business continuity plan Recovery and reconstruction planning Disaster
  • 56. HOSPITAL AIRPORT AND AND HEALTH TRANSPORT SYSTEM EMERGENCY EMERGENCY PLANS PLAN REGIONAL AND MUTUAL MUNICIPAL COUNTY OR NATIONAL ASSISTANCE EMERGENCY PROVINCIAL EMERGENCY PLAN PACTS PLAN EMERGENCY PLANS INDUSTRIAL AND CULTURAL COMMERCIAL HERITAGE EMERGENCY EMERGENCY PLANS PLAN
  • 57. Disaster Co-ordinated Disaster EMS Disaster in the system in the medical plans of medical centre centres Disaster Disaster Disaster planning planning for in the external for the system the medical environment of medical centre centres Disaster planning for the external environment
  • 58. Planning Preparation • scenarios • education & training • risk analysis • exercises • emergency plans • plan dissemination • protocols • revision of plans Organisation Resources • comand structure • materials • task forces • vehicles, equipment • operations centres • communications • communications • manpower
  • 59. Lesson: planning for emergencies and crises should be a continuous process, not an end.
  • 60. Thank you for your attention! David Alexander d.alexander@alice.it emergency-planning.blogspot.com www.slideshare.net/dealexander