1. Disasters and Climate ChangeDavid AlexanderUniversity College London

2. MitigationAdaptationGreenhousegas emissionsResponseConsequencesNatural and human systemsDisastersClimate change

3. Frequency and magnitude: more often, worseandspreading•stronger storms•larger floods•longer droughts•greater temperature extremes•shifting reservoirs of disease•changing crop production zones.

4. Then (1950s)
Now (2014)
Under-reporting of disasters
More complete recording
Counting only direct effects
Quantifying indirect effects
Smaller population of hazardous places
Larger population, greater densities
Less inequality
Inequality,marginalisation
Less fixed capital at risk
Relentless accumulation of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic networks
More complex networks
Climate change ignored
CC taken into account.

5. Damage ratio(max 100%) Wind speed (metres/sec) Wind speedincreasesslightlyDamageincreasesgreatly

6. Haiyan/Yolanda, November 2013

7. FallinghazardprobabilityRisingvulnerabilityOptimummitigationlevel? 'Fat-tailed' (negatively skewed) distributionMagnitude

8. Radio- activeemissionsCBRNterrorismEpidemics, epizootics, epiphytoticsPandemics
ClimatechangeEmergingrisks...Greatgeophysicalevents: volcaniceruptions, earthquakes, extra- terrestrialimpacts, etc.

9. ResilienceResistanceRiskSusceptibilityPhysical(including natural, built, technological) Social(including cultural, political, economicEnvironment Attributes Source: McEntire 2001 LiabilitiesCapabilities VULNERABILITY

10. •imbalances of wealth and power•denial or restriction of human rights•poverty, marginalisation, exploitation•corruptionand lack of trust•conflictand proxy wars. The root causes of disaster

11. War and
conflict
Poverty
Natural
disasters
Insecurity
Vulnerability and
marginalisation
Military
Humanitarian assistance
assistance
The "Military Cross"

12. MilitaryassistanceHumanitarianassistanceCreationof poverty, marginalisation, precariousness"Capacitybuilding": creation ofresilienceGlobalexploitationInformal andblack economyScienceThe international community

13. Day 1:clusterbombsDay 2: humanitarian rationsWhat falls outof the sky?

14. VulnerabilityTotal:life isgenerally precariousEconomic:people lackadequate occupationTechnological/technocratic:dueto the riskiness of technologyDelinquent:caused bycorruption, negligence, etc. Residual:caused bylack of modernisationNewly generated: caused bychanges in circumstances

15. Attitude
The
ingredients
of resilience

16. Sustainability

17. Uncertain future: long-term trendsclimatechangecapacity to adaptLivelihoods: security and wealth generationHazardsand risks: disasterpreparednessGovernance: democratic participation in decision makingRESILIENCE: managing risksadapting to changesecuring resources

18. SUSTAINABILITYOF DISASTERRISK REDUCTIONDAILY RISKS(e.g.unem- ployment, poverty) EMERGINGRISKS(e.g. climatechange, pandemics) GENERALSUSTAINABILITY(e.g. lifestyles, economicactivities, environment) MAJOR DISASTER RISKS(e.g. floods, drought, landslides, heatwaves)

19. RISKSdaily:unemployment, poverty, disease, etc. major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks:pandemics, climate changeSUSTAINABILITYdisaster risk reductionresource consumptionstewardship of the environmenteconomic activitieslifestyles and communitiesSUSTAINABILITY

20. General resilienceDisaster resilienceDisaster mitigationDisaster responseThe broader picture

21. Conclusions

22. •not because of high death tolls•but threats to the food chain…? •and losses that potentiallythreaten the global economy? •sudden geophysical/climatic change: e.g. a massive volcanic eruption•is there a threshold of global tolerance?. Will CC and meteorological extremes forceradical improvements in human safety?

23. •corruptionand the black economy•the arms trade, proxy warsand fomenting conflict•denial and curtailment ofhuman and civil rights•manufactured consent andthe manipulation of politics•governancemust be achievedby participatory democracy. Obstacles to progress in DRR:-

24. BENIGN (healthy) at the service of the peopleMALIGN (corrupt) at the service of vested interests
interplay
dialecticJustificationDevelopment[spiritual, cultural, political, economic] IDEOLOGYCULTURE

25. System is...
Example of catalytic disasterSubstituted
Economic catastrophe after
mega natural or anthropogenic event
Threshold of economic sustainability
Redirected
Indian Ocean tsunami, 2004 (?)
Threshold of political and public tolerance
Static
Earthquakes: Kashmir 2005, Sichuan '08
Threshold of sustained political and public attention
In decline
No significant major events
The potential catalysts for change

26. Organisationalsystems: managementSocialsystems: behaviourNaturalsystems: functionTechnicalsystems: malfunctionVulnerabilityHazard Resilience Politicalsystems: decisions

27. The great scientists werehighly sensitive to the socialimplications of their work.

28. Thank you for yourattention! m.slideshare.net/dealexander