For Bournemouth University Skype lecture

1. Natural Disaster Risk
A Global Perspective
David Alexander
Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)

2. Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.
In the second half of the 20th century
the world experienced increases of:
• 250% in the number of recorded disasters
• 500% in number of disasters with victims
• 500% in the number of affected people
• 1500% in the total
cost of disasters Disasters
• 1640% in the cost 1900-2009
of insured damage.

3. Then (1950s) Now (2007)
Under-reporting of More complete
disasters recording
Counting only direct Quantifying indirect
effects effects
Smaller population of Larger population,
hazardous places greater densities
Less inequality Growing inequality and
marginalisation
Less fixed capital at Relentless accumulation
risk of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic More complex networks
networks

4. An asset is not A hazard is not
vulnerable unless hazardous unless
it is threatened Resilience it threatens
by something something
Hazard RISK Vulnerability
Extreme Elements
events at risk
Exposure

5. Primary
• cause and effect
VULNERABILITY
Secondary Complex
• interaction of causes • complicated
• coincidences interactions

6. Total: life is
Newly generally
generated: precarious Economic:
caused by people lack
changes in adequate
circumstances occupation
Vulnerability Technological
Delinquent: technocratic:
caused by caused by
corruption, the riskiness
negligence, Residual: caused by of technology
etc. lack of modernisation

7. Indeterminacy Climate
change
Collateral Cascading
vulnerability effects
Interaction Secondary
between risks disasters
"Fat-tailed"
distributions Probability
of impacts

8. Falling hazard Rising
Risk: value of probable costs and losses
Hazard: probability of occurrence with diminishing vulnerability
Vulnerability: potential damage probability of with increasing
occurrence seriousness of
potential
Vertical axis scales:
consequences
Risk as product
of hazard and
vulnerability
Total annual
predicted costs
and losses
Severity
Fat-tailed distribution

9. Population
(community) Plans,
protection procedures,
protocols
Disaster risk
reduction
Hazard
forecasting, Human
monitoring, Incident and material
etc. management resources

10. Knowledge
Knowledge of
of hazards
community
and their
vulerability
impacts
DRR
Knowledge
of coping
Disaster capacity and
Risk resilience
Reduction

11. Redundancy
The ingredients
of resilience
Adaptability Attitude
Participation
...and
communication

12. Disaster Risk Reduction
Resilience
Civil Contingencies Management
Civil Protection
Disaster
Management
Broader Changing
scope and objectives
outcomes of emergency
management

13. Civil contingencies
Business Civil Civil
continuity protection defence
management
Resilience
The risk environment

14. Community disaster planning
Volunteerism Donations
Self-organisation Community
resources
Organisation Resources
Imposed Governmental
organisation resources
Laws, protocols, directives
Standards, norms, guidelines International resources

15. The creation of a culture of civil protection
HABIT
INSTRUMENTS OF
DISSEMINATION
MASS
• mass media
EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign
PROGRAMME
• social networks
• internet
SOCIAL
CAPITAL
Augmentation

16. Hazards
and risks:
disaster
preparedness
Uncertain
Governance: future:
democratic Livelihoods: long-term
participation diversity trends
in decision and security climate
making change
capacity
RESILIENCE: to adapt
managing risks
adapting to change
securing resources

17. needs to be needs to be shortened
lengthened
impact
warning
and emergency
evacuation management
and rescue repair of
preparation basic
for the isolation services recovery and
next event reconstruction
needs to be
Risk reduction and disaster mitigation strengthened

18. Perception Knowledge
Risk
assessment
Risk Risk
Disaster
management analysis
threat
Risk
Institutional communication Adaptation
learning

19. Organisational Natural
systems: systems:
management function
Hazard Vulnerability
Resilience
Social Technical
systems: systems:
behaviour malfunction

20. Optimisation
Technology Response
Message Perception
Plan Culture
Social factors

21. In times of peace
Planning, Fusion with
warning and sustainability
preparedness agenda
Enhanced Organised
structural non-structural
protection protection
In times of crisis

22. Health Contingency
system planning
Emergency Search
Emergency
medical and
response response rescue
Emergency Emergency
communications management

23. MAJOR DISASTER
RISKS
(e.g. floods, drought,
landslides, heatwaves)
EMERGING DAILY
RISKS SUSTAINABILITY RISKS
(e.g. climate OF DISASTER (e.g. food
change, RISK REDUCTION security,
pandemics) poverty)
GENERAL
SUSTAINABILITY
(e.g. lifestyles, economic
activities, environment)

24. d.alexander@alice.it
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.com/dealexander