Gresham "Group 150" - December 2011 (Print Pdf)
1. DECEMBER 2011
Gresham Group 150
December 2011
Darren Martin
Gresham Advisory Partners
dmartin@gresham.com.au
+61 8 9486 7077
+61 412 144 719
ASX ReSouRceS - GRoup 150
We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources
companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.
The performance at “ASX Casino” continued for November.
The Gresham Group 150 lost $32.2 billion or 6.8% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling from $474.6
billion to $442.5 billion. The gains recorded in October, were all but nearly wiped out.
The entry threshold for December’s list fell further to $87.5 million, down from $94.42 million last month. The ASX/S&P
200 Resources Index decreased 6.5%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 4.0% and 4.1%
respectively. We have updated the consensus commodity prices forecasts and replaced the tin analysis with iron ore fines.
Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover
premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the
mining industry.
The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between
1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction. The analysis covers the M&A
transactions announced in the past 2 years.
Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific
factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the
market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces.
The review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders
switch into the target.
In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the transaction objective of
creating shareholder value in the mining industry.
Gresham Advisory partners Limited
Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory
Edition 20 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
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4. Group 150
Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion
-5.2%
442.5
+23.0%
Market Valuation (A$b) - Group 150
asX indeX performance - november Group 150 mkT cap - by commodiTy
merGer & acquisiTions - announced in november & ocTober
percent premium - premium -
Date Value consideration
Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day prior 1 Month prior
Announced (A$m) offered
(%) (%) (%)
29-Nov-2011 Accent Resources N.L. (ASX:ACS) Xinyang Resources (HK) Limited 52.1 91 -12.0 3.1 Cash
Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works
25-Nov-2011 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) 553.4 100 81.8 106.9 Cash
(MICEX:MAGN)
31-Oct-2011 Laguna Resources NL (ASX:LRC) Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) 11.2 30 107.2 107.2 Cash
13-Oct-2011 Signature Metals Limited (ASX:SBL) LionGold Corp Ltd (SGX:A78) 48.9 100 49.3 29.4 Equity
Iron Ore Holdings Limited, Phils Creek, Lamb
13-Oct-2011 Process Minerals International Pty Ltd. 42.0 100 - - Cash
Creek, and Yandicoogina Creek
2-Oct-2011 Aston Resources Limited, Maules Creek Project J-Power Australia Pty. Ltd. 374.5 10 - - Cash
Source: Capital IQ
Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m
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5. DECEMBER 2011
does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry
Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover
premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the mining
industry. The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target
between 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction.
Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific
factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the
market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces.
The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years.
Target
change in Market capitalisation
1 week prior and 1 week 1 week prior and 3 months
after announcement after announcement
Bidder/predator 29% Average Bidder/predator
32% Average
Source: Capital IQ
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6. Group 150
does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry
TThe review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders
switch into the target. In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the objective
of creating shareholder value in the mining industry.
predator
change in Market capitalisation
1 week prior and 1 week 1 week prior and 3 months
after announcement after announcement
Bidder/predator -2% Average Bidder/predator
6% Average
Source: Capital IQ
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7. DECEMBER 2011
base meTaLs - secTor performance
Share price performance - November 2011
Copper Nickel Zinc
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance
7
8. Group 150
coaL - secTor performance
Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance
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9. DECEMBER 2011
diversified - secTor performance indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance
Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
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10. Group 150
GoLd - secTor performance
Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
159% 173% 126%
Share Price Performance
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11. DECEMBER 2011
iron ore - secTor performance
Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance
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12. Group 150
pLaTinum - secTor performance uranium - secTor performance
Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
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14. recenT resources TransacTions
Group 150
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mergers and Acquisitions
2010 2009
GRAM
2009 2009 2008 2008 2006
Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD
Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its
$204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition
United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold.
Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds.
Limited.
TakeoverDefence
Takeover Defence
2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007
Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on
Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m
$178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover
offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and
Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick.
Limited. Resources. Power Group.
Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets
Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets
2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008
Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka
Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its
US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal
ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to
joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata.
Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue.
Gresham Advisory partners Limited
A.B.N. 97 003 344 269
Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,
Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Perth WA 6000
Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024
Website: www.gresham.com.au
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