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DECEMBER 2011

                               Gresham Group 150


                                                            December 2011
                            Darren Martin
                            Gresham Advisory Partners
                            dmartin@gresham.com.au
                            +61 8 9486 7077
                            +61 412 144 719



ASX ReSouRceS - GRoup 150
We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources
companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.
The performance at “ASX Casino” continued for November.
The Gresham Group 150 lost $32.2 billion or 6.8% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling from $474.6
billion to $442.5 billion. The gains recorded in October, were all but nearly wiped out.
The entry threshold for December’s list fell further to $87.5 million, down from $94.42 million last month. The ASX/S&P
200 Resources Index decreased 6.5%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 4.0% and 4.1%
respectively. We have updated the consensus commodity prices forecasts and replaced the tin analysis with iron ore fines.
Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover
premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the
mining industry.
The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between
1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction. The analysis covers the M&A
transactions announced in the past 2 years.
Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific
factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the
market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces.
The review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders
switch into the target.
In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the transaction objective of
creating shareholder value in the mining industry.
Gresham Advisory partners Limited



                                      Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory
Edition 20                            business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.


                                                                                                                                  1
Group 150
       Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - november
       By Market Capitalisation
                                                                         Mkt cap (A$m)           %                                                                    Mkt cap (A$m)          %

 Nov        oct       company                                        30-Nov-11    31-oct-11    change    Nov   oct   company                                       30-Nov-11   31-oct-11   change

   1          1       BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP)                    $185,932.3   $201,266.9    (7.6%)   51    42    Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU)                 $455.0      $537.2   (15.3%)

   2          2       Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO)                       $118,355.9   $130,801.2    (9.5%)   52    49    Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR)                  $454.0      $516.5   (12.1%)

   3          3       Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM)                  $26,448.7    $25,639.7     3.2%    53    41    Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL)                  $450.3      $540.5   (16.7%)

   4          4       Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG)           $14,136.6    $15,101.9    (6.4%)   54    56    Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY)                  $448.5      $418.7     7.1%

   5          5       Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA)         $10,781.5    $10,710.5     0.7%    55    54    Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO)         $445.1      $441.1     0.9%

   6          6       Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU)                   $6,088.4     $6,755.6    (9.9%)   56    59    Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK)                  $421.6      $391.2     7.8%

   7          7       New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC)                    $4,898.4     $4,939.9    (0.8%)   57    64    Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS)                $391.2      $358.9     9.0%

   8          8       MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC)                    $4,836.5     $4,890.9    (1.1%)   58    66    Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY)                      $387.6      $355.2     9.1%

   9         10       Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC)                           $3,306.4     $3,611.5    (8.4%)   59    61    Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM)                  $381.5      $381.5     0.0%

  10          9       OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL)                    $3,287.0     $3,674.7   (10.6%)   60    62    Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN)                  $378.3      $378.3     0.0%

  11         13       Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA)                  $2,668.5     $2,470.8     8.0%    61    58    Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM)               $376.0      $413.2    (9.0%)

  12         11       Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC)                $2,621.0     $2,942.3   (10.9%)   62    63    Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX)                 $357.4      $371.0    (3.7%)

  13         12       Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO)                     $2,566.9     $2,791.6    (8.0%)   63    67    Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX)                       $345.0      $319.1     8.1%

  14         15       Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC)              $2,082.3     $2,065.2     0.8%    64    57    Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF)                 $335.7      $415.5   (19.2%)

  15         17       Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT)                 $2,011.1     $1,935.9     3.9%    65    71    Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU)                  $324.9      $311.0     4.5%

  16         16       PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA)                        $1,864.8     $1,936.1    (3.7%)   66    65    Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC)               $322.9      $356.9    (9.6%)

  17         14       Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT)                $1,692.6     $2,157.8   (21.6%)   67    55    Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND)                $311.8      $438.6   (28.9%)

  18         20       Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL)                   $1,560.3     $1,389.9    12.3%    68    80    Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE)         $309.8      $277.2    11.8%

  19         22       Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL)                $1,429.4     $1,302.9     9.7%    69    100   Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST)           $308.9      $199.5    54.8%

  20         18       Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX)                 $1,347.8     $1,672.6   (19.4%)   70    70    Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS)                   $308.7      $315.4    (2.1%)

  21         25       Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN)                   $1,295.0     $1,252.5     3.4%    71    69    Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG)           $306.1      $316.0    (3.1%)

  22         19       Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU)                    $1,294.5     $1,413.9    (8.4%)   72    76    Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN)               $304.1      $305.2    (0.4%)

  23         21       Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP)                 $1,154.7     $1,331.9   (13.3%)   73    98    Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY)                       $294.2      $210.2    40.0%

  24          -       Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN)               $1,114.8      $309.0    260.8%    74    90    Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED)                             $288.8      $237.5    21.6%

  25         23       Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL)                $1,108.2     $1,260.7   (12.1%)   75    88    Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM)                           $281.5      $241.7    16.5%

  26         24       Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML)                  $1,085.8     $1,255.7   (13.5%)   76    89    Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM)             $276.5      $240.2    15.1%

  27         26       Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM)                 $1,076.4     $1,184.0    (9.1%)   77    85    Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML)                 $254.9      $254.9     0.0%

  28         29       Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA)                       $1,017.3     $1,044.0    (2.6%)   78    68    Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK)               $252.9      $317.5   (20.3%)

  29         27       Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL)                  $959.5      $1,084.2   (11.5%)   79    74    Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC)                      $244.8      $307.1   (20.3%)

  30         31       Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR)                      $950.7      $1,032.0    (7.9%)   80    73    Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY)          $241.3      $308.7   (21.8%)

  31         35       Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG)                    $931.3       $781.2     19.2%    81    84    Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM)                         $240.1      $257.1    (6.6%)

  32         30       Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN)          $921.3      $1,042.0   (11.6%)   82    95    Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG)      $240.1      $217.5    10.4%

  33         28       Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO)                   $892.8      $1,079.5   (17.3%)   83    91    BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI)                        $224.0      $228.6    (2.0%)

  34         34       CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX)                      $757.0       $783.7     (3.4%)   84    60    Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE)                  $221.8      $388.2   (42.9%)

  35         39       Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR)           $738.5       $597.3     23.6%    85    83    Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX)           $217.3      $260.0   (16.4%)

  36         48       Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA)               $731.4       $519.4     40.8%    86    78    Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL)                             $215.5      $290.8   (25.9%)

  37         33       Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN)                    $727.8       $816.4    (10.8%)   87    108   Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH)              $212.2      $171.8    23.5%

  38         32       Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA)      $719.6       $872.5    (17.5%)   88    96    Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE)                 $207.2      $216.4    (4.3%)

  39         36       ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM)                         $713.1       $713.1      0.0%    89    82    Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM)                  $202.0      $260.4   (22.4%)

  40         47       Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS)                      $644.8       $523.0     23.3%    90    93    Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ)              $201.4      $225.7   (10.8%)

  41         45       Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH)                 $635.5       $529.5     20.0%    91    113   ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU)                       $200.1      $165.4    21.0%

  42         50       CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU)                             $583.6       $499.9     16.7%    92    97    Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH)              $199.3      $210.9    (5.5%)

  43         38       Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML)                   $570.0       $612.6     (7.0%)   93    87    Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM)        $198.3      $242.9   (18.4%)

  44         37       Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG)                   $567.8       $627.0     (9.4%)   94    75    OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH)                    $195.8      $306.3   (36.1%)

  45         40       Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU)                  $549.4       $595.5     (7.7%)   95    112   Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF)             $178.4      $165.7     7.7%

  46         46       Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR)                $542.2       $524.9      3.3%    96    106   Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR)                            $175.9      $179.0    (1.7%)

  47         51       Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR)        $522.6       $447.0     16.9%    97    120   Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX)               $174.8      $132.7    31.7%

  48         43       Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL)              $515.2       $532.3     (3.2%)   98    81    Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM)                  $173.7      $263.7   (34.1%)

  49         79       Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS)                 $510.0       $282.3     80.6%    99    107   Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR)            $172.7      $178.8    (3.4%)

  50         53       Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR)                     $481.0       $443.0      8.6%    100   92    Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR)                    $172.5      $227.8   (24.3%)
Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas


       2
DECEMBER 2011




                                                                            Mkt cap (A$m)            %                                                                     Mkt cap (A$m)          %

   Nov         oct   company                                           30-Nov-11      31-oct-11    change     Nov   oct   company                                      30-Nov-11   31-oct-11    change

   101         102   Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG)            $169.9        $197.2   (13.9%)    126   115   Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG)             $109.6       $147.3   (25.6%)

   102         94    Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU)                    $165.6        $224.5   (26.2%)    127   167   Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG)              $108.5        $81.5    33.2%

   103         99    Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO)                       $165.4        $200.5   (17.5%)    128   135   Doray Minerals Limited (ASX:DRM)                $108.5       $113.8    (4.7%)

   104         118   Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL)                             $163.6        $141.1    16.0%     129   128   Sylvania Platinum Limited (ASX:SLP)             $108.5       $123.5   (12.2%)

   105         109   Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA)                                $161.7        $171.0    (5.5%)    130   121   Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN)                 $107.2       $132.1   (18.9%)

   106         119   African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI)                         $158.1        $140.5    12.5%     131   146   Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR)                 $106.2        $98.6     7.7%

   107         104   Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO)                     $150.8        $190.5   (20.8%)    132   125   Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG)             $105.5       $129.2   (18.3%)

   108         129   Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE)                             $150.7        $122.8    22.7%     133   131   Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL)              $104.8       $120.7   (13.2%)

   109         105   Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI)                                 $148.3        $182.9   (18.9%)    134   150   Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI)                     $102.3        $94.4     8.4%

   110         44    White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC)                 $147.0        $531.1   (72.3%)    135   141   Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND)             $100.8       $106.3    (5.2%)

   111         103   Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL)                              $146.3        $194.4   (24.8%)    136   145   Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA)                  $99.2        $99.2     0.0%

   112         111   Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR)                          $145.1        $166.8   (13.0%)    137   126   Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES)            $98.0       $126.4   (22.4%)

   113         123   Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR)                   $143.3        $130.7     9.6%     138   133   Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO)                     $97.3       $119.8   (18.8%)

   114         142   Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL)                          $138.1        $105.1    31.3%     139   137   Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR)              $94.6       $111.7   (15.3%)

   115         114   Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD)                            $132.9        $158.8   (16.3%)    140   140   Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX)                  $94.6       $110.3   (14.3%)

   116         130   Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS)                   $130.0        $121.2     7.3%     141   160   Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI)             $93.7        $85.0    10.3%

   117         101   South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB)                     $127.3        $198.4   (35.8%)    142   136   African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR)       $93.1       $112.6   (17.3%)

   118         117   Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC)                              $126.7        $142.0   (10.8%)    143   139   Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG)                     $92.1       $110.5   (16.7%)

   119         122   Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR)                  $124.7        $131.3    (5.0%)    144   153   Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD)                      $91.1        $93.9    (3.0%)

   120         127   Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE)                               $121.1        $126.0    (3.9%)    145   165   Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH)                      $90.1        $82.8     8.8%

   121         144   Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI)                  $117.1        $100.9    16.1%     146   152   Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)                 $89.4        $94.1    (5.0%)

   122         138   Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM)                         $117.0        $111.4     5.1%     147   151   Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR)                    $89.3        $94.3    (5.3%)

   123         124   Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH)                        $116.7        $129.7   (10.0%)    148   143   Voyager Resources Limited (ASX:VOR)              $89.2       $101.6   (12.2%)

   124         116   Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU)             $115.2        $146.1   (21.1%)    149   159   Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR)             $88.1        $85.9     2.5%

   125         132   YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC)                        $114.6        $120.6    (5.0%)    150   162   PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI)                  $87.5        $84.1     4.0%
Source: Capital IQ

new enTranTs - november                                                                                      eXiTs - november
24           Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN)                                                              Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN)
127          Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG)                                                              Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT)
141          Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI)                                                            Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH)
144          Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD)                                                                     Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS)
145          Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH)                                                                     NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP)
146          Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)                                                                Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH)
147          Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR)                                                                   IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR)
149          Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR)                                                            Centaurus Metals Limited (ASX:CTM)
150          PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI)                                                                 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR)
Based on market capitalisation as at 30 November vs 31 October

Group 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - november
                                                             Leaders



                                                                                                                                              Laggers




       * Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month

                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
Group 150
Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion
                                                                                                                                    -5.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                    442.5
                                                                                                                 +23.0%
    Market Valuation (A$b) - Group 150




asX indeX performance - november                                                                                              Group 150 mkT cap - by commodiTy




merGer & acquisiTions - announced in november & ocTober
                                                                                                                                            percent   premium -       premium -
           Date                                                                                                                     Value                                           consideration
                                         Target                                          Acquirer                                           Sought    1 Day prior   1 Month prior
         Announced                                                                                                                  (A$m)                                             offered
                                                                                                                                              (%)        (%)             (%)

  29-Nov-2011                            Accent Resources N.L. (ASX:ACS)                 Xinyang Resources (HK) Limited             52.1      91         -12.0           3.1            Cash

                                                                                         Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works
  25-Nov-2011                            Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS)                                                          553.4    100         81.8           106.9           Cash
                                                                                         (MICEX:MAGN)

  31-Oct-2011                            Laguna Resources NL (ASX:LRC)                   Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN)   11.2      30        107.2           107.2           Cash

  13-Oct-2011                            Signature Metals Limited (ASX:SBL)              LionGold Corp Ltd (SGX:A78)                48.9     100         49.3           29.4           Equity

                                         Iron Ore Holdings Limited, Phils Creek, Lamb
  13-Oct-2011                                                                            Process Minerals International Pty Ltd.    42.0     100           -              -             Cash
                                         Creek, and Yandicoogina Creek

  2-Oct-2011                             Aston Resources Limited, Maules Creek Project   J-Power Australia Pty. Ltd.                374.5     10           -              -             Cash
Source: Capital IQ
Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m


4
DECEMBER 2011




does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry
Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover
premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the mining
industry. The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target
between 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction.
Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific
factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the
market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces.
The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years.

                                                          Target
                                            change in Market capitalisation
                          1 week prior and 1 week                           1 week prior and 3 months
                            after announcement                                 after announcement
        Bidder/predator                 29% Average         Bidder/predator
                                                                                           32% Average




Source: Capital IQ



                                                                                                                            5
Group 150
does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry
TThe review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders
switch into the target. In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the objective
of creating shareholder value in the mining industry.

                                                         predator
                                             change in Market capitalisation

                          1 week prior and 1 week                                   1 week prior and 3 months
                            after announcement                                         after announcement
        Bidder/predator       -2% Average                         Bidder/predator
                                                                                              6% Average




Source: Capital IQ




6
DECEMBER 2011



base meTaLs - secTor performance
                              Share price performance - November 2011

                                Copper                                     Nickel   Zinc
Share Price Performance




                            Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                          Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




                                                                                            7
Group 150
coaL - secTor performance
                              Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance




                            Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                          Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




8
DECEMBER 2011



diversified - secTor performance                    indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance
                              Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                            Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                          Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                                                                                           9
Group 150
GoLd - secTor performance
                                            Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance




                                          Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                                        Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
                          159%   173%                                        126%
Share Price Performance




10
DECEMBER 2011



iron ore - secTor performance
                              Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance




                            Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                          Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




                                                                                       11
Group 150
pLaTinum - secTor performance                       uranium - secTor performance
                              Share price performance - November 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                            Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




                          Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010
Share Price Performance




                                                 Share Price Performance




12
DECEMBER 2011



consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - november
Gold (US$/oz)                                                                    Silver (US$/OZ)
   $2,500                                                                        $60
                  $1,747          $1,825          $1,808
   $2,000                                                      $1,600            $50
                                                                                                     $37.00    $36.75
                                                                        $1,400            $32.80                         $31.13
                                                                                 $40                                               $30.47
   $1,500
                                                                                 $30
   $1,000
                                                                                 $20
      $500                                                                       $10
         $0                                                                       $0
                    Spot           2012            2013        2014     2015              Spot       2012      2013      2014       2015

Copper (US$/lb)                                                                  Nickel (US$/lb)
   $5.00                          $3.97           $3.97                          $16.00
                                                               $3.76    $3.90
                  $3.58                                                                                                            $11.20
   $4.00                                                                         $12.00                $9.51    $9.53     $9.75
                                                                                             $7.94
   $3.00
                                                                                  $8.00
   $2.00
   $1.00                                                                          $4.00

   $0.00                                                                          $0.00
                  Spot            2012             2013        2014     2015                 Spot      2012      2013     2014      2015

Zinc (US$/lb)                                                                    Lead (US$/lb)
   $2.00                                                                         $2.00

   $1.50                                                       $1.13             $1.50                          $1.20     $1.19     $1.18
                                  $0.99           $1.08                 $1.09                         $1.06
                  $0.94                                                                     $0.96
   $1.00                                                                         $1.00

   $0.50                                                                         $0.50

   $0.00                                                                         $0.00
                  Spot            2012             2013        2014     2015                Spot      2012      2013      2014      2015

Iron Ore Fines 62% (US$/mt)                                                      Uranium (US$/lb)
   $200                         $167.50                                          $100
                                                $140.00                                                        $70.00    $75.00
                $130.90                                       $130.00                                $64.50
   $150                                                                           $75
                                                                                          $52.25
   $100                                                                           $50

     $50                                                                          $25

      $0                                                                           $0
                  Spot            2012            2013         2014     2015               Spot       2012      2013      2014      2015

AUD:USD                                                                          NYMEX (US$/bbl)
   $1.25          $1.00           $1.00           $1.02        $1.00             $150                                              $126.50
                                                                        $0.99                                            $113.00
                                                                                                               $109.00
   $1.00                                                                                  $100.36    $96.00
                                                                                 $100
   $0.75
   $0.50
                                                                                  $50
   $0.25
   $0.00                                                                           $0
                  Spot            2012             2013        2014     2015               Spot       2012      2013      2014      2015



Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low


                                                                                                                                             13
recenT resources TransacTions

      Group 150
      Mergers and Acquisitions
       Mergers and Acquisitions
                                            2010                                    2009

                                                                                                     GRAM
                                                                                                                           2009                                     2009                                   2008                                    2008                                    2006




                      Advised BHP                             Advised BG                          Advised Guandong                        Advised Allied Gold                       Advised Kalahari                         Advised Gem                           Advised IAMGOLD
                      Billiton on its                      Group on its $1bn                      Rising on its $216m                        on its $54m                             Minerals on its                        Diamonds on its                        Corporation on its
                     $204m offer for                       takeover offer for                         cornerstone                           acquisition of                         $140m proposed                          $300m acquisition                       $265m acquisition
                     United Minerals                          Pure Energy                          investment in Pan                          Australian                              merger with                            of Kimberley                           of Gallery Gold.
                      Corporation.                             Resources                                  Aust.                            Solomons Gold.                          Extract Resources.                          Diamonds.
                                                                Limited.




      TakeoverDefence
        Takeover Defence
                                            2010                                    2010                                   2010                                    2009                                     2009                                   2007                                    2007




                     Advised Polaris                        Advised Indophil                            Advised                            Advised Energy                           Advised Brandrill                       Advised Summit                       Advised Tethyan on
                      Metals NL on                              on $545m                               Centaurus                         Metals on its $86m                           Limited on its                        Resources on its                          its $220m
                     $178m takeover                          recommended                             Resources on its                   proportional takeover                        $45m takeover                         A$1.2bn takeover                      competing takeover
                     offer by Mineral                        offer from Zijin                         $20m merger                           offer by China                          offer by Ausdrill                      by Paladin Energy.                    offer by Crosby and
                        Resources                                                                    with Glengarry                      Guangdong Nuclear                               Limited.                                                                Antogafasta/Barrick.
                         Limited.                                                                      Resources.                           Power Group.




      Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets
        Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets
                                            2010                                   2010                                     2009                                    2008                                2009/08                                    2008                                    2008




                       Advised BHP                             Introduced                              Advised BHP                               Advised                           Advised Iluka on its                          Advised                            Advised Iluka
                       Billiton on its                    Denham Capital to                           Billiton on the                           Bannerman                                $114m                             Murchison Metals                        Resources on its
                      US$116bn iron                          Trans Tasman                             disposal of the                        Resources on its                         institutional                        on its joint venture                   $54m Narama coal
                      ore production                      Resources resulting                         Yabulu Nickel                           financing with                         placement and                          with Mitsubishi.                        divestment to
                    joint venture with                     in NZ iron sands                               refinery.                          Resource Capital                      $353m accelerated                                                                   Xstrata.
                         Rio Tinto.                           investment.                                                                         Funds.                               right issue.




                                                                                                        Gresham Advisory partners Limited
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                      Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street,                                                                         Level 10, 1 Collins Street,                                                                      Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,
                                   Sydney NSW 2000                                                                                 Melbourne VIC 3000                                                                                      Perth WA 6000
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      14

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Gresham "Group 150" - December 2011 (Print Pdf)

  • 1. DECEMBER 2011 Gresham Group 150 December 2011 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners dmartin@gresham.com.au +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 ASX ReSouRceS - GRoup 150 We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. The performance at “ASX Casino” continued for November. The Gresham Group 150 lost $32.2 billion or 6.8% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling from $474.6 billion to $442.5 billion. The gains recorded in October, were all but nearly wiped out. The entry threshold for December’s list fell further to $87.5 million, down from $94.42 million last month. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index decreased 6.5%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 4.0% and 4.1% respectively. We have updated the consensus commodity prices forecasts and replaced the tin analysis with iron ore fines. Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the mining industry. The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction. The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years. Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces. The review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders switch into the target. In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the transaction objective of creating shareholder value in the mining industry. Gresham Advisory partners Limited Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory Edition 20 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. 1
  • 2. Group 150 Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - november By Market Capitalisation Mkt cap (A$m) % Mkt cap (A$m) % Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change 1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $185,932.3 $201,266.9 (7.6%) 51 42 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $455.0 $537.2 (15.3%) 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $118,355.9 $130,801.2 (9.5%) 52 49 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $454.0 $516.5 (12.1%) 3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $26,448.7 $25,639.7 3.2% 53 41 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $450.3 $540.5 (16.7%) 4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $14,136.6 $15,101.9 (6.4%) 54 56 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $448.5 $418.7 7.1% 5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $10,781.5 $10,710.5 0.7% 55 54 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $445.1 $441.1 0.9% 6 6 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $6,088.4 $6,755.6 (9.9%) 56 59 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $421.6 $391.2 7.8% 7 7 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,898.4 $4,939.9 (0.8%) 57 64 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $391.2 $358.9 9.0% 8 8 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $4,836.5 $4,890.9 (1.1%) 58 66 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $387.6 $355.2 9.1% 9 10 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $3,306.4 $3,611.5 (8.4%) 59 61 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $381.5 $381.5 0.0% 10 9 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,287.0 $3,674.7 (10.6%) 60 62 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $378.3 $378.3 0.0% 11 13 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,668.5 $2,470.8 8.0% 61 58 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $376.0 $413.2 (9.0%) 12 11 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,621.0 $2,942.3 (10.9%) 62 63 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $357.4 $371.0 (3.7%) 13 12 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $2,566.9 $2,791.6 (8.0%) 63 67 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $345.0 $319.1 8.1% 14 15 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $2,082.3 $2,065.2 0.8% 64 57 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $335.7 $415.5 (19.2%) 15 17 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $2,011.1 $1,935.9 3.9% 65 71 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $324.9 $311.0 4.5% 16 16 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,864.8 $1,936.1 (3.7%) 66 65 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $322.9 $356.9 (9.6%) 17 14 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,692.6 $2,157.8 (21.6%) 67 55 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $311.8 $438.6 (28.9%) 18 20 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,560.3 $1,389.9 12.3% 68 80 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $309.8 $277.2 11.8% 19 22 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $1,429.4 $1,302.9 9.7% 69 100 Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST) $308.9 $199.5 54.8% 20 18 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,347.8 $1,672.6 (19.4%) 70 70 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $308.7 $315.4 (2.1%) 21 25 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $1,295.0 $1,252.5 3.4% 71 69 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $306.1 $316.0 (3.1%) 22 19 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,294.5 $1,413.9 (8.4%) 72 76 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $304.1 $305.2 (0.4%) 23 21 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $1,154.7 $1,331.9 (13.3%) 73 98 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $294.2 $210.2 40.0% 24 - Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) $1,114.8 $309.0 260.8% 74 90 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $288.8 $237.5 21.6% 25 23 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $1,108.2 $1,260.7 (12.1%) 75 88 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $281.5 $241.7 16.5% 26 24 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,085.8 $1,255.7 (13.5%) 76 89 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $276.5 $240.2 15.1% 27 26 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,076.4 $1,184.0 (9.1%) 77 85 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $254.9 $254.9 0.0% 28 29 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,017.3 $1,044.0 (2.6%) 78 68 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $252.9 $317.5 (20.3%) 29 27 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $959.5 $1,084.2 (11.5%) 79 74 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $244.8 $307.1 (20.3%) 30 31 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $950.7 $1,032.0 (7.9%) 80 73 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $241.3 $308.7 (21.8%) 31 35 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $931.3 $781.2 19.2% 81 84 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $240.1 $257.1 (6.6%) 32 30 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $921.3 $1,042.0 (11.6%) 82 95 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $240.1 $217.5 10.4% 33 28 Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO) $892.8 $1,079.5 (17.3%) 83 91 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $224.0 $228.6 (2.0%) 34 34 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $757.0 $783.7 (3.4%) 84 60 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $221.8 $388.2 (42.9%) 35 39 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $738.5 $597.3 23.6% 85 83 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $217.3 $260.0 (16.4%) 36 48 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $731.4 $519.4 40.8% 86 78 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $215.5 $290.8 (25.9%) 37 33 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $727.8 $816.4 (10.8%) 87 108 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) $212.2 $171.8 23.5% 38 32 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $719.6 $872.5 (17.5%) 88 96 Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE) $207.2 $216.4 (4.3%) 39 36 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $713.1 $713.1 0.0% 89 82 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $202.0 $260.4 (22.4%) 40 47 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $644.8 $523.0 23.3% 90 93 Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ) $201.4 $225.7 (10.8%) 41 45 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $635.5 $529.5 20.0% 91 113 ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU) $200.1 $165.4 21.0% 42 50 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $583.6 $499.9 16.7% 92 97 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $199.3 $210.9 (5.5%) 43 38 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $570.0 $612.6 (7.0%) 93 87 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $198.3 $242.9 (18.4%) 44 37 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $567.8 $627.0 (9.4%) 94 75 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $195.8 $306.3 (36.1%) 45 40 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $549.4 $595.5 (7.7%) 95 112 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $178.4 $165.7 7.7% 46 46 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $542.2 $524.9 3.3% 96 106 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $175.9 $179.0 (1.7%) 47 51 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $522.6 $447.0 16.9% 97 120 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $174.8 $132.7 31.7% 48 43 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $515.2 $532.3 (3.2%) 98 81 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $173.7 $263.7 (34.1%) 49 79 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $510.0 $282.3 80.6% 99 107 Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR) $172.7 $178.8 (3.4%) 50 53 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $481.0 $443.0 8.6% 100 92 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $172.5 $227.8 (24.3%) Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas 2
  • 3. DECEMBER 2011 Mkt cap (A$m) % Mkt cap (A$m) % Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change 101 102 Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG) $169.9 $197.2 (13.9%) 126 115 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $109.6 $147.3 (25.6%) 102 94 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $165.6 $224.5 (26.2%) 127 167 Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG) $108.5 $81.5 33.2% 103 99 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $165.4 $200.5 (17.5%) 128 135 Doray Minerals Limited (ASX:DRM) $108.5 $113.8 (4.7%) 104 118 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $163.6 $141.1 16.0% 129 128 Sylvania Platinum Limited (ASX:SLP) $108.5 $123.5 (12.2%) 105 109 Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) $161.7 $171.0 (5.5%) 130 121 Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN) $107.2 $132.1 (18.9%) 106 119 African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI) $158.1 $140.5 12.5% 131 146 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $106.2 $98.6 7.7% 107 104 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $150.8 $190.5 (20.8%) 132 125 Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) $105.5 $129.2 (18.3%) 108 129 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $150.7 $122.8 22.7% 133 131 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $104.8 $120.7 (13.2%) 109 105 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $148.3 $182.9 (18.9%) 134 150 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $102.3 $94.4 8.4% 110 44 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $147.0 $531.1 (72.3%) 135 141 Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND) $100.8 $106.3 (5.2%) 111 103 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $146.3 $194.4 (24.8%) 136 145 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $99.2 $99.2 0.0% 112 111 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $145.1 $166.8 (13.0%) 137 126 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $98.0 $126.4 (22.4%) 113 123 Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR) $143.3 $130.7 9.6% 138 133 Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO) $97.3 $119.8 (18.8%) 114 142 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) $138.1 $105.1 31.3% 139 137 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) $94.6 $111.7 (15.3%) 115 114 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $132.9 $158.8 (16.3%) 140 140 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $94.6 $110.3 (14.3%) 116 130 Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS) $130.0 $121.2 7.3% 141 160 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) $93.7 $85.0 10.3% 117 101 South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB) $127.3 $198.4 (35.8%) 142 136 African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR) $93.1 $112.6 (17.3%) 118 117 Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC) $126.7 $142.0 (10.8%) 143 139 Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG) $92.1 $110.5 (16.7%) 119 122 Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) $124.7 $131.3 (5.0%) 144 153 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) $91.1 $93.9 (3.0%) 120 127 Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE) $121.1 $126.0 (3.9%) 145 165 Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH) $90.1 $82.8 8.8% 121 144 Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI) $117.1 $100.9 16.1% 146 152 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $89.4 $94.1 (5.0%) 122 138 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $117.0 $111.4 5.1% 147 151 Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR) $89.3 $94.3 (5.3%) 123 124 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) $116.7 $129.7 (10.0%) 148 143 Voyager Resources Limited (ASX:VOR) $89.2 $101.6 (12.2%) 124 116 Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU) $115.2 $146.1 (21.1%) 149 159 Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR) $88.1 $85.9 2.5% 125 132 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) $114.6 $120.6 (5.0%) 150 162 PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI) $87.5 $84.1 4.0% Source: Capital IQ new enTranTs - november eXiTs - november 24 Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) 127 Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG) Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) 141 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) 144 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) 145 Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH) NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) 146 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) 147 Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR) IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) 149 Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR) Centaurus Metals Limited (ASX:CTM) 150 PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI) Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) Based on market capitalisation as at 30 November vs 31 October Group 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - november Leaders Laggers * Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month 3
  • 4. Group 150 Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion -5.2% 442.5 +23.0% Market Valuation (A$b) - Group 150 asX indeX performance - november Group 150 mkT cap - by commodiTy merGer & acquisiTions - announced in november & ocTober percent premium - premium - Date Value consideration Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day prior 1 Month prior Announced (A$m) offered (%) (%) (%) 29-Nov-2011 Accent Resources N.L. (ASX:ACS) Xinyang Resources (HK) Limited 52.1 91 -12.0 3.1 Cash Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works 25-Nov-2011 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) 553.4 100 81.8 106.9 Cash (MICEX:MAGN) 31-Oct-2011 Laguna Resources NL (ASX:LRC) Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) 11.2 30 107.2 107.2 Cash 13-Oct-2011 Signature Metals Limited (ASX:SBL) LionGold Corp Ltd (SGX:A78) 48.9 100 49.3 29.4 Equity Iron Ore Holdings Limited, Phils Creek, Lamb 13-Oct-2011 Process Minerals International Pty Ltd. 42.0 100 - - Cash Creek, and Yandicoogina Creek 2-Oct-2011 Aston Resources Limited, Maules Creek Project J-Power Australia Pty. Ltd. 374.5 10 - - Cash Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m 4
  • 5. DECEMBER 2011 does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the mining industry. The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction. Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces. The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years. Target change in Market capitalisation 1 week prior and 1 week 1 week prior and 3 months after announcement after announcement Bidder/predator 29% Average Bidder/predator 32% Average Source: Capital IQ 5
  • 6. Group 150 does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry TThe review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders switch into the target. In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the objective of creating shareholder value in the mining industry. predator change in Market capitalisation 1 week prior and 1 week 1 week prior and 3 months after announcement after announcement Bidder/predator -2% Average Bidder/predator 6% Average Source: Capital IQ 6
  • 7. DECEMBER 2011 base meTaLs - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011 Copper Nickel Zinc Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance 7
  • 8. Group 150 coaL - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011 Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance 8
  • 9. DECEMBER 2011 diversified - secTor performance indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance 9
  • 10. Group 150 GoLd - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011 Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010 159% 173% 126% Share Price Performance 10
  • 11. DECEMBER 2011 iron ore - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011 Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance 11
  • 12. Group 150 pLaTinum - secTor performance uranium - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance 12
  • 13. DECEMBER 2011 consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - november Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ) $2,500 $60 $1,747 $1,825 $1,808 $2,000 $1,600 $50 $37.00 $36.75 $1,400 $32.80 $31.13 $40 $30.47 $1,500 $30 $1,000 $20 $500 $10 $0 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) $5.00 $3.97 $3.97 $16.00 $3.76 $3.90 $3.58 $11.20 $4.00 $12.00 $9.51 $9.53 $9.75 $7.94 $3.00 $8.00 $2.00 $1.00 $4.00 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb) $2.00 $2.00 $1.50 $1.13 $1.50 $1.20 $1.19 $1.18 $0.99 $1.08 $1.09 $1.06 $0.94 $0.96 $1.00 $1.00 $0.50 $0.50 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Iron Ore Fines 62% (US$/mt) Uranium (US$/lb) $200 $167.50 $100 $140.00 $70.00 $75.00 $130.90 $130.00 $64.50 $150 $75 $52.25 $100 $50 $50 $25 $0 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl) $1.25 $1.00 $1.00 $1.02 $1.00 $150 $126.50 $0.99 $113.00 $109.00 $1.00 $100.36 $96.00 $100 $0.75 $0.50 $50 $0.25 $0.00 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low 13
  • 14. recenT resources TransacTions Group 150 Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and Acquisitions 2010 2009 GRAM 2009 2009 2008 2008 2006 Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its $204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold. Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds. Limited. TakeoverDefence Takeover Defence 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007 Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m $178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick. Limited. Resources. Power Group. Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets 2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008 Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata. Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue. 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