A Choice Of Internet Futures: Will Nonprofits Be Stuck In The Slow Lane?

www.internetsociety.org
A Choice Of Internet Futures
Will Nonprofits Be Stuck In The Slow Lane?
2015 Nonprofit Technology Conference (15NTC)
4 March 2015
Dan York, Senior Content Strategist

Administrivia
#15NTCnetadvocacy
Web: http://sched.co/2IUZ
Notes: http://po.st/xU00Jr
Eval: http://po.st/OyzAfa

http://a4ai.org/

Who Are You?
Why Are You Here?

90 Minutes

Permissionless
Innovation

Internet
Of
Opportunity

Image: albaum on Flickr

Spoiler Alert
(I don’t have all the answers)

Symmetry

danyork.me
Books
Blogs
Podcasts
1980’s
Nonprofits
Corporations
Telecom
VoIP
Training
Linux
UNH
Security

What is the Internet Society?
The Internet Society (ISOC) is a cause-based organization that works with
governments, industries, and others to ensure the technologies and policies
that helped develop and evolve the Internet will continue into the future.
Our programs cultivate an Internet that is open to everyone, everywhere and
aim to ensure that it will continue to be a tool for creativity, innovation, and
economic growth.
MISSION: To promote the open development, evolution,
and use of the Internet for the benefit of all people
throughout the world.

How We Work To Protect Our Internet
Operating at the intersection
of policy, technology, and
development allows the
Internet Society to be a
thought leader on issues key
to the Internet’s continued
growth and evolution.
Technology
Development
Policy

History
Founded in 1992 by Internet pioneers
Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn as an
international nonprofit organization.
The Internet Society is the
organizational home of the Internet
Engineering Task Force (IETF), the
primary entity responsible for
establishing the Internet’s open
standards and best practices.
For more details, visit
www.internetsociety.org/history

Global Presence
108
Chapters
Worldwide
71,000+
Members and
Supporters
133
Organization
Members
18
Countries with
ISOC Offices
92
Countries with
ISOC Chapters
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA &
CARIBBEAN
EUROPE
AFRICA
THE MIDDLE EAST
ASIA
OCTOBER 2013Chapters

Caveat
These are my personal views –
They may or may not reflect
Internet Society positions
Image: Christian Schnettelker (manoftaste-de) on Flickr

Past Present Futures Choices

In The Beginning…

In The Beginning…
(well, maybe lets start in the
1980’s… )

BBSs
AOL

Online
Services

Defining
characteristics?

• Messages only to other users
• Discussions not visible outside
• Some content only available on
that service (license agreements)
• Only one service at a time (dial-up)
• You paid $$$ for access (usually)

“walled gardens”

Fractured
Disconnected

Connect

wired to interconnect

We tried

Telco standards
OSI, H.x, G.x, X.x …

UUCP
harvard!mv!srbci!ldy

FidoNet

And then…

Internet Protocol

Internet
The one network to
interconnect them all

Slowly…

… until the walls
came down…

“Internet Invariants”

Global reach

General Purpose
You can do anything with it

http://listicle.io/cluetrain/

Accessible
To connect, build, study

Basic agreements and
social behavior
between technologies and
between humans

Reusable building
blocks
Not tied to technology

No permanent
favorites
(Remember AltaVista?)

Internet Invariants
• Global Reach
• General Purpose
• Permissionless Innovation
• Accessible – connect, build, study
• Conventions and social behavior
• Reusable tech building blocks
• No permanent favorites

Distributed and
Decentralized
(ex. email, web)

End-to-end
“E2E”

Intelligence at
the edge
“Stupid” network

Connect
Communicate

Connect
Communicate
Create

Connect
Communicate
Create
Collaborate

Connect
Communicate
Create
Collaborate
Communities

Thought we had
it all…

Declaration of the
Independence of
Cyberspace
https://projects.eff.org/~barlow/Declaration-Final.html

cluetrain.com

Messaging
Email, Jabber, IRC…

Discussion
USENET, forums, listserv…

Publishing
Web, gopher…

Unleasing the
creativity of
humanity on
a global scale

But a funny thing
happened on the
way to our utopia…

Commerce

Image: epSos.de on Flickr

engine
of communication
and collaboration

… a
phenomenal
engine
of commerce!

One slight problem…

Destruction of the
gatekeepers

“Disintermediation”

Removal of the
intermediaries

Whole new industries

Amazing opportunities

Gatekeepers of old?

The telcos are calling…
… they want their
revenue back!

The governments
are calling…
… they want their
revenue back!

The media companies
are calling…
… they want their
revenue back!

The movie studios
are calling…
… they want their
revenue back!

The <insert disrupted
industry here>
are calling…
… they want their
revenue back!

The fundamental
point

Shockey’s Law:
Money is the answer.
What is the question?

Control

Who used to be
in charge?

Image: mosaaberisingon Flickr

(Skype, WhatsApp)

The telcos are calling…
… they want their
control back!

The governments
are calling…
… they want their
control back!

The media companies
are calling…
… they want their
control back!

The movie studios
are calling…
… they want their
control back!

The <insert disrupted
industry here>
are calling…
… they want their
control back!

Revenue
and
Control

Only one slight
problem…

… the new industries,
and the people,
don’t want to
give it back

But wait,
there’s more…

Convenience
(consumerization)

Consumers

Image: dehub on Flickr

“n00bs”

user@aol.com

Didn’t care HOW it
worked
Just wanted it TO work

The Internet is
merely a tool.

A new way to
get things done

Simplicity

User experience
“UX”

Consumption

Easier to consume

Easier to deliver

Telephone VoIP

TV
Video
Streams

Radio Podcasts

Newspapers
Web sites/
Feeds

CDs
MP3s
/streaming

Commerce
Control
Convenience
Consumerization
Consumption

Internet

Trends

“If when you say internet,
you think of a computer,
then you probably don't live
in an African country.”
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/02/19/africa/africa-mobile-internet/

Mobile

Mobile Internet
(2015 Global Internet Report)

Next 4 Billion People?

Digital Divide?

Affordability?

Billions of things

Internet of Things
(IoT)

Security / Privacy

Identity

Security
Security
Security

Surveillance

Can we trust
the Internet?

“The future is already here –
it’s just not very evenly
distributed.”
- William Gibson, author

Image: tedandjen on Flickr

Present
Accessible
/Innovative
Decentralized
Closed
/Fragmented
Centralized

The Internet
“we used to know”

Innovation

Competition
Choice
Diversity

Interoperability

Freedom of
expression

Security
Privacy
Trust

“Common Pool”
“Global Citizen”

Balkanization

Fragmentation

Regional networks

Multiple “Internets”

Response to
pervasive
surveillance

Response to
revenue/control
loss

Lack of
interoperability

“Boutique networks”

Return of some
gatekeepers

Will need to go to each
regional network to
gain access

Fragmented
AND
Controlled

Government
Regulation
(and Taxes, too)

Corporate
Control

Gatekeepers
Everywhere

Permission
or
Payment
Required

Censorship

“Safety”
“Protection”
“… for the children”

Legitimate safety
issues, but can
be over-used

Islands
of
Disconnection

The scenario
none of us
want

Must be on guard…
… slippery slope.

A Big Quadrant
(Many nuances)

“Walled Gardens”

Massively Centralized
yet
Still Innovating
(for now)

Key Point:
You must ask (or pay)
the gatekeepers for
permission

WHO will be the
gatekeepers?

Already There

Remember AOL,
CompuServe,
Prodigy?

Facebook?
Google?
Twitter?
Apple?

Facebook Groups
Google+ Communities
LinkedIn Groups
Amazon Discussions
Twitter

• Messages only to other users
• Discussions not visible outside
• Some content only available on
that service (license agreements)
• Only one service at a time (dial-up)
• You pay $$$ for access (usually)

Services are “free”
You are the product

Advertising-based
model

Eyeballs are needed!

Obtaining more eyeballs
Bring the next
4 billion people
online!

Facebook – Internet.org
Google – Project Loon,
Project Titan

Great ideas…
… but always a
trade-off.

“Zero-rating”
Free mobile service
for particular content
(ex. Facebook)

Image: erictastad on Flickr

Creates the “lens”
through which
people experience
the “Internet”

“Internet” = Facebook

Facebook Messenger
vs
email?

Google Docs
for
conference notes

Convenience

Directory
and
Presence

User Experience

App Stores

Closed, proprietary
devices

What apps can be
installed?

Apps can provide an
awesome user
experience, but…

… everytime you use
an app, a tiny bit of
the open Web dies.

Access Providers

Revenue/control

Paid prioritization

Throttling/Blocking

Governments

Legislation
Regulation

Do you want to go
around asking
for
permission?

“If you choose not to decide,
you still have made a
choice.”
- “Free will” from Rush

Informationdiet.com

Consciously
choosing

Others ARE making
the choice
for us

It’s all about the
trade-offs.

“Open” is hard

“Open” is messy,
complex

No silver bullets

Network
Neutrality?

Victory in US with
FCC ruling on Feb 26?

On the surface,
it sounds great:
• No Blocking
• No Throttling
• No Paid Prioritization

But…

1. We Don’t Know
What They Actually
Voted On

2. “Forbearance”

3. Strategically, we’ve
been saying:
The Internet is NOT the telephone network.
You cannot apply the old rules of telecom
to the new world of the Internet.

Effectively, the FCC
said:
The Internet IS like the telephone network.
The old rules of telecom DO apply
to the new world of the Internet.

Is that a good thing?

I don’t know.

Good News

The FCC said the
right words.

Millions of people
woke up
to the issue.

What are we as
individuals
willing to trade in
return for convenience
and simplicity?

as
organizations?

as
nations?

as
a global society?

No single answer

Three Requests

1. Spread These
Conversations

Clueless

Talk to your members
Write articles/blog posts
Create podcasts / videos
Speak at events
(or invite speakers)

What future do
we want for
the Internet?

Your help is
needed

human voice

your mission

1:30pm
MR 7
“Saving the Internet
with the Internet”
#15NTCsavewww
http://sched.co/2Dfv

2. Examine Your
Own Operations

Which future does
an action/usage
support?

What services are
you using?

How well do those
providers
support the
future you
want?

indiewebcamp.com

Publish on your
Own
Site,
Syndicate
Elsewhere

First on your site,
THEN on Facebook,
Twitter, etc.

Caveat: sometimes
there is value in
specific content
for those sites.

3. Choose “open”
and “decentralized”
whenever possible

(Realizing that
sometimes
you can’t)

Three Requests:
1. Spread these
conversations
2. Examine your own
operations
3. Choose “open” whenever
possible

Resources
• Internet Society Future Scenarios
http://www.internetsociety.org/internet/how-its-evolving/future-scenarios
• Global Internet Report
http://www.internetsociety.org/doc/global-internet-report
• Mary Meeker – Internet Trends
http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends
• Dr. Robert Pepper
• (many others)

We have a choice
of
Internet futures

We must choose
wisely…

… while we still can.

Image: Alan Stark (squeeks2569) on Flickr

Thank you!
#15NTCnetadvocacy
Web: http://sched.co/2IUZ
Notes: http://po.st/xU00Jr
Eval: http://po.st/OyzAfa

york@isoc.org
@danyork
Dan York
Senior Content Strategist
Thank You!

A Choice Of Internet Futures: Will Nonprofits Be Stuck In The Slow Lane?

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