Lundquist presentation at 2012

1. #NYSFAAA2012
Enrollment Management in a
Time of Change and Challenge
Dan Lundquist
October 10, 2012

2. Agenda: Questions & Answers
• What IS our role?
– What should it be?
– How do we best fulfill it?
• Situation analysis: Unstoppable Force Meets Immovable Object?
– External Market
– Internal Constituents On-Campus: the “State of Enrollment Management”
• Call to action
– We serve internal and external constituencies
– We need to be more than “just” tactical doers
– We must share the knowledge garnered from our positions astride internal and external
for the betterment of all stakeholders, internal/external, current/future
– The Human Capital enterprise deserves no less
Accept no less: return to your office empowered and model a dynamic new role

3. What IS “Enrollment Management?”
• NO ONE REALLY KNOWS
– there is no agreed-upon definition
• It varies widely from campus to campus
• Responsibility and authority are often not connected
• It is safe to conclude it is
– inefficient,
– subjective,
– political, and
– often not connected to market realities

4. What SHOULD “Enrollment Management” Be?
• It should be a pre-enrollment to graduation process
• It should be a partnership among the Adult Mentors
at an institution
• It should be everyone’s business and everyone
should have a defined role and accountability
• It should be a conversation that supports education
and commerce
• It should be engaging
• MOST of what it REALLY IS is fun and rewarding

5. Situation Analysis: the Market
• Of those who should be thinking about
highered (which is not everyone)
– Despite data showing highered has never been
more valuable, many are wary
– Question ROI (cost/value)
– Are unsophisticated about net cost
– Are worried about debt
• And that group – OUR “BASE” – is shrinking

6. HIGHERED VALUE: REAL

7. HIGHERED VALUE: GROWING

8. Supply Chain Gut Check: Income

9. Supply Chain Gut Check: Debt

10. Supply Chain Gut Check: Price

11. Gut Check: Stealth Money
• BANK OF HOME: many families owe more on their
mortgages than their homes are worth. Since home
values peaked in April 2006, home prices have dropped
34 percent.
• PLUS or minus: the size of Parent PLUS loans, available to
the parents of undergraduate students, has shot up over
the last decade.
– the average loan size at a few schools is particularly
burdensome, with some parents taking out over $30,000
in debt in only one year.
• DYING BREED: more school counselors have been telling
me about the role of “stealth money,” grandparents
stepping in the help bridge gaps. The clock is ticking on
that source.

12. Trend in Family Ability to Pay and Willingness to Pay
PARENTS SAY
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
AVG EFC AVG OFFER

13. College Board and Art & Science Group, LLC.

14. Reality Check: You See
“You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

15. “You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

16. “You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

17. “You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

18. “You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

19. Future Check: from unwilling to unable to
priced-out in a generation
• Across the affluence spectrum, ability and willingness to
pay is decreasing at best.
• As ability to pay increases, willingness to pay decreases:
– more and more students are going to their “second
choice” colleges because of cost.
• If the more-affluent current parents are balking at paying
today’s costs what will the next generation of parents
do?
– …the first American generation pundits predict less well off
than their parents….
• The next cohort of less-affluent parents will have an even
more difficult time paying if college prices freeze today.

20. Solutions?
• Affordability is the “hot new college amenity”
– The FINANCIAL FIT has never been more
important
• Colleges need to be more affordable and
effectively promote that
– The dial must be turned back on costs colleges
incur that have forced them to pass higher costs
on to families
• We must be advocates for sustainability, for our
institutions and for our “customers”

21. “Perfect Storm”: See It Coming?
Expenses UP, Revenue DOWN

23. So What Do We Do?
• We need to be more than “just” tactical doers
• “Enrollment management” must be a financial
aid/admissions partnership
• Financial aid and Admissions must view themselves
as and be viewed as more than “just” recruiters and
dispursers
• Enrollment managers must be recognized as
important sources of strategic intellectual and
financial capital

24. How We Doin’?
“You Say”: NYSFAAA member survey data

25. Grade:
B

26. Grade:
B

27. Grade:
C-

28. So What Do We Do?
• We must share the knowledge garnered from our
positions astride internal and external for the
betterment of all stakeholders
– internal/external
– current/future
• We need to urge leadership to:
– square revenue with overhead expense
– focus on relevant metrics (revenue vs. discount)
– accept their stewardship responsibility to objectively look
to the future

29. Call to Action
Settle for Nothing Less than the Enterprise Deserves
Accept no less:
Return to your office empowered to perform
and model a dynamic new role.
Higher Education deserves nothing less.

30. Read www.DanLundquist.blogspot.com
Follow @DanLundquist
Write danlundquist@gmail.com or Dan@EducationConsultancy.org
See www.EducationConsultancy.org
Call (518) 986-1842