Change Isn't Complicated - It's Complex by Daniel Walsh nuCognitive

Change
Isn’t Complicated . . . It’s COMPLEX
1@danielwalsh
Daniel Walsh
STRECTH Conference
Budapest 2017
Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017

2 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017
Scientific
Management
“Popularized”
Systems Thinking
CC BY-SA 3.0 Patrhoue and Apdevries from article by John Sterman
Complex Adaptive
Systems
Adapted from Dave Snowden Cognitive Edge

Cynefin
kuh-nev-in
Habitat or place
The place of your multiple belongings

Situational Awareness
Contextually Appropriate Action

The nature of the system determines
the way we can know things, how
we make decisions, and how we act.
-David Snowden
Cynefin Framework
kuh-nev-in
@danielwalsh

?Disorder?
Chaotic Complex ObviousComplicated
@danielwalsh

Disorder
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
foldorcliff
@danielwalsh

The Cynefin Framework
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
DisorderDisorder
The Cynefin Framework by Cognitive Edge..
Constraints
Cause and Effect
Relationship
Decision-making
How to respond
@danielwalsh

The Obvious Domain
Direct Cause-Effect Relationship
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Rigid constraints
sense-categorize-respond
@danielwalsh

The Complicated Domain
Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Rigid constraints
Governing constraints
sense-analyze-respond
@danielwalsh

The Complex Domain
Interconnected Cause-Effect Relationship
11
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
emergent practice
Rigid constraints
Governing constraintsEnabling constraints
probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond
@danielwalsh

The Chaotic Domain
Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
emergent practice
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
No constraints
act-sense-respond
@danielwalsh

The Disordered Domain
Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
emergent practice
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
No constraints
act-sense-respond
probe –
sense –
respond
exploratory
practice
@danielwalsh

Cynefin Framework | Older Version*
*Reference: Complex Acts of Knowing by Dave Snowden
Disorder
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Known
Knowns
Known
Unknown
Unknown
Unknowns
Unknowable
@danielwalsh

Nature is adroit in
creating objects whose
only excuse for being
seems to be to thwart
someone’s effort to put
them into a category.
-Billy Vaughn Koen
*Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method. 2003.
@danielwalshCC BY-SA 3.0 Platypus by TwoWings

16 @danielwalsh
Complex
Disorder
Complicated

17 @danielwalsh
“…a jumbo jet is complicated but a mayonnaise is complex.”
– Paul Cilliers
Reference: https://www.theoryculturesociety.org/oliver-human-on-paul-cilliers/
CC BY-SA 2.0 by jules:stonesoup
CC BY-SA 3.0 by Alex Beltyukov
Disorder

Cynefin Metaphors | Games
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Coin Toss
BlackjackTexas Hold’em
Poker
Food Fight
Calvinball*
Reference: http://calvinandhobbes.wikia.com/wiki/Calvinball
@danielwalsh

Cynefin Metaphors | Movement
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Police Roadblock
Traffic LightRoundabout
Brownian
Motion
@danielwalsh

Cynefin X Change
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Standards, Hard Rules,
& Policy Enforcement
Define Ideal State
& Close Gap
Manage Evolutionary
Potential of Present
Invest in Advance
of Need
@danielwalsh
Scientific Management
“Popular” Systems ThinkingAnthro-Complexity
Chaos Engineering*
*Reference: http://principlesofchaos.org/
Netflix post on Chaos Automation Platform

Three Principles Three Heuristics Three Methods
Environment and
interactions matter
Obliquity
Dispositional not
causal
Emergent
possibilities of the
present
Disintermediation
Grow from smaller
systems that work
Simple rules
Probes
Sense-making
Leading Complex Change

Emergent
present
Disintermediation
Grow from smaller
systems that work
Simple rules
Probes
Sense-making
Environment and
interactions matter
Context is king
Dispositional not
causal

Mathematics of Dots*
*Source: The Mathematics of Dots by Max Boisot
Events as Dots
Effect
Patterns
Connecting Dots
Cause
Links
@danielwalsh
Hindsight Does Not Lead To Foresight
# of Dots # of Links # of Possible Patterns
4 6 64
10 45 ~35,000,000,000
n L=n(n-1)/2 P=2L

Emergent
present
Disintermediation
Grow from smaller
systems that work
Simple rules
Probes
Sense-making
Environment and
interactions matter
Context is king
Dispositional not
causal

Emergent
present
Disintermediation
Grow from smaller
systems that work
Environment and
interactions matter
Context is king
Dispositional not
causal
Simple rules
Probes
Sense-making

Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.28 CC BY-SA 3.0 Storyteller doll by Rose Pecos-Sun Rhodes
Sensemaking is a form of
distributed ethnography
Draws on concepts from
anthropology, cognitive
science, & complexity
Gets the organization to
talk to itself about itself

Interventions
30 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Employee and
Manager Alignment
Attitudes towards
change were…
thoughtful or
enthusiastic.
keep
as is.
Misaligned Aligned
How do we get
more stories like these &
fewer stories like those?

Complex Change Needs
Ecological Metaphors Not
Manufacturing Ones
Change Agent As Gardener

32 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Nov2017
A kōan (公案) is a story, dialogue, question, or
statement, which is used in Zen practice to provoke
the "great doubt" and test a student's progress
*Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C5%8Dan
@danielwalsh

The more things change,
the more they stay the same.
@danielwalsh

A kōan (公案) for the change agents…
@danielwalsh

How do you work with people,
@danielwalsh
Go To The Gemba
Kaizen
with where they are at,
with what you have,
to make small changes
for the better?

Thank You
@danielwalsh Daniel.Walsh@nuCognitive.com

Change Isn't Complicated - It's Complex by Daniel Walsh nuCognitive

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Change Isn't Complicated - It's Complex by Daniel Walsh nuCognitive