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Geospatial Intelligence to
                            Guide Wildlife Management


¹Department of Geomatics Engineering, U of C                 D. Birkigt¹, C. Semeniuk¹, M. Musiani²,
²Faculty of Environmental Design, U of C               G. McDermid³, M. Hebblewhite4, S. Grindal5,
³Department of Geography, U of C
4College of Forestry and Conservation, U of Montana,
                                                                                       D. Marceau*¹
5Environmental Stewardship, ConcocoPhillips Canada,
*Project Leader
The Path
  I. Overview
       I. Industrial Development
       II. Woodland Caribou
       III. Issue
  II. Realistic Future Scenario Landuse
       I. Cellular Automata
  III. Representing the Woodland Caribou
       I. Agent Based Modeling
  IV.Integrating Land and Animal
       I. Strategic Insight
  V. Where to Start
                                           Modified from wburris Flickr
Little Smoky Region
Like Much of Alberta




                       Memestate Flickr
1998
2001
2004
2007
2011
1998
ALSO HOME TO
Stingp flickr




  The
  Situation     PapaMarina Flickr
Legal
Responsibility
Species at Risk Act




Steps Must be Taken to Recover
the Species
Past            Present     Future
       The Future State of the Landscape




                 UNKNOWN
UNKNOWN
Spatial Distribution and Energy
                                              HOW AND
                                              WHY
                                              CARIBOU
                                              SELECT AND
                                              USE WINTER
                         Bruce McKay Flickr
                                              HABITAT
BECOME KNOWNS
               Spatial Distribution and Energy




  Provide Future Insight

 Future                                 Bruce McKay Flickr




The Future      The Relationship of
State of the    the Caribou with
Landscape       Winter Habitat
The Path
    I. Overview
         I. Industrial Development
         II. Woodland Caribou
         III. Issue
    II. Future Scenario Landuse
         Planning
         I. Cellular Automata
    III. Representing the Woodland
         Caribou
         I. Agent Based Modeling
    IV. Integrating Land and Animal
         I. Strategic Insight
    V. Where to Start
What Will
    The Little Smoky
Look like in 10 Years?
CELLULAR AUTOMATA
          WELLS
A method to simulate future patterns based on past
                     patterns
Space is Divided Into Regular
       Arrangement of Cells




Cell States




              Neighbourhood



               Transition
                  Rule
Space is Divided Into Regular
       Arrangement of Cells


              Neighbourhood

Cell States
               Transition
                  Rule
Space is Divided Into Regular
       Arrangement of Cells


              Neighbourhood

Cell States
               Transition
                  Rule


                              TI M   E +1
1998
1998
2001
2004
2007
2011
Driving
Factors
[     DISTANCE TO
    INFRASTRUCTURE   ]
1998
2001
2004
2007
2011
[   DISTANCE TO
        WELL      ]
1998
2001
2004
2007
2011
Establish Transition
Rules From Historical
Development Patterns
All Driving Factors
  All Time Steps
CAPTURE
         THE
RELATIONSHIP

                  120                                                 1

                  100




                                                                             Cumulative Proportion
                                                                      0.75
Number of Wells




                   80

                   60                                                 0.5

                   40
                                                                      0.25
                   20

                    0                                                 0
                        0   1000   2000       3000      4000   5000
                                      Distance Meters
All Driving Factors
  All Time Steps
SIMULATE AND CALIBRATE
SIMULATE REALISTIC
    SCENARIOS
What Will
    The Little Smoky
Look like in 10 Years?
Was The Relationship Captured
   No One Knows The Future
Past Does Not Predict Future




LIMITATIONS
KNOWNS         Spatial Distribution and Energy



                Provide Future
                   Insight
Future                                  Bruce McKay Flickr




The Future      The Relationship of
State of the    the Caribou with
Landscape       Winter Habitat
The Path
    I. Overview
         I. Industrial Development
         II. Woodland Caribou
         III. Issue
    II. Future Scenario Landuse
         Planning
         I. Cellular Automata
    III. Representing the Woodland
         Caribou
         I. Agent Based Modeling
    IV. Integrating Land and Animal
         I. Strategic Insight
    V. Where to Start
1.                 AGENT
Entity Interacts
With
Environment
                   BASED
and Tries To
Achieve a Goal     MODEL

2.
Respond To
Sensory Input
UNKNOWNS
Spatial Distribution and Energy
                                              HOW AND
                                              WHY
                                              CARIBOU
                                              SELECT AND
                                              USE WINTER
                         Bruce McKay Flickr
                                              HABITAT
KNOWLEDGE




       Troy Thomson Flickr
Foraging Potential Landscape
Internal Energy
Travel Costs
Predation Risk

SENSE
                               Troy Thompson Flickr
SIMULATE

    Acquire Energy: Maintenance
    Conserve Energy: Reproduction




   GOAL
    Minimize Risk and Disturbance
SIMULATE
OUTPUT
Spatial Location
Energy




                           GPS
     Troy Thomson Flickr




BIOLOGY
The Path
    I. Overview
         I. Industrial Development
         II. Woodland Caribou
         III. Issue
    II. Future Scenario Landuse
         Planning
         I. Cellular Automata
    III. Representing the Woodland
         Caribou
         I. Agent Based Modeling
    IV. Integrating Land and Animal
         I. Strategic Insight
    V. Where to Start
KNOWNS         Spatial Distribution and Energy




  Provide Future Insight

Future                                 Bruce McKay Flickr




The Future     The Relationship of
State of the   the Caribou with
Landscape      Winter Habitat
STRATEGIC INSIGHT
2004
STRATEGIC INSIGHT
2020
WHERE TO
START?
Project Gigalopolisis
SLEUTH                                        netlogo
 www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/index.html   ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/



DINAMICA project                              Repast
www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/                     repast.sourceforge.net/
Acknowledgements
WHERE TO
START?
Project Gigalopolisis
SLEUTH                                        netlogo
 www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/index.html   ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/



DINAMICA project                              Repast
www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/                     repast.sourceforge.net/


                                                          dabirkig@ucalgary.ca
SCENARIOS

Amount
Location
Constrain

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Geo albertaupload

  • 1. Geospatial Intelligence to Guide Wildlife Management ¹Department of Geomatics Engineering, U of C D. Birkigt¹, C. Semeniuk¹, M. Musiani², ²Faculty of Environmental Design, U of C G. McDermid³, M. Hebblewhite4, S. Grindal5, ³Department of Geography, U of C 4College of Forestry and Conservation, U of Montana, D. Marceau*¹ 5Environmental Stewardship, ConcocoPhillips Canada, *Project Leader
  • 2. The Path I. Overview I. Industrial Development II. Woodland Caribou III. Issue II. Realistic Future Scenario Landuse I. Cellular Automata III. Representing the Woodland Caribou I. Agent Based Modeling IV.Integrating Land and Animal I. Strategic Insight V. Where to Start Modified from wburris Flickr
  • 4. Like Much of Alberta Memestate Flickr
  • 10. 1998
  • 11.
  • 13. Stingp flickr The Situation PapaMarina Flickr
  • 14.
  • 15. Legal Responsibility Species at Risk Act Steps Must be Taken to Recover the Species
  • 16. Past Present Future The Future State of the Landscape UNKNOWN
  • 17. UNKNOWN Spatial Distribution and Energy HOW AND WHY CARIBOU SELECT AND USE WINTER Bruce McKay Flickr HABITAT
  • 18. BECOME KNOWNS Spatial Distribution and Energy Provide Future Insight Future Bruce McKay Flickr The Future The Relationship of State of the the Caribou with Landscape Winter Habitat
  • 19. The Path I. Overview I. Industrial Development II. Woodland Caribou III. Issue II. Future Scenario Landuse Planning I. Cellular Automata III. Representing the Woodland Caribou I. Agent Based Modeling IV. Integrating Land and Animal I. Strategic Insight V. Where to Start
  • 20. What Will The Little Smoky Look like in 10 Years?
  • 21. CELLULAR AUTOMATA WELLS A method to simulate future patterns based on past patterns
  • 22. Space is Divided Into Regular Arrangement of Cells Cell States Neighbourhood Transition Rule
  • 23. Space is Divided Into Regular Arrangement of Cells Neighbourhood Cell States Transition Rule
  • 24. Space is Divided Into Regular Arrangement of Cells Neighbourhood Cell States Transition Rule TI M E +1
  • 25.
  • 26. 1998
  • 27. 1998
  • 28. 2001
  • 29. 2004
  • 30. 2007
  • 31. 2011
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. [ DISTANCE TO INFRASTRUCTURE ]
  • 38. 1998
  • 39. 2001
  • 40. 2004
  • 41. 2007
  • 42. 2011
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. [ DISTANCE TO WELL ]
  • 46. 1998
  • 47. 2001
  • 48. 2004
  • 49. 2007
  • 50. 2011
  • 51.
  • 52. Establish Transition Rules From Historical Development Patterns
  • 53. All Driving Factors All Time Steps
  • 54. CAPTURE THE RELATIONSHIP 120 1 100 Cumulative Proportion 0.75 Number of Wells 80 60 0.5 40 0.25 20 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Distance Meters
  • 55. All Driving Factors All Time Steps
  • 57. SIMULATE REALISTIC SCENARIOS
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. What Will The Little Smoky Look like in 10 Years?
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. Was The Relationship Captured No One Knows The Future Past Does Not Predict Future LIMITATIONS
  • 64. KNOWNS Spatial Distribution and Energy Provide Future Insight Future Bruce McKay Flickr The Future The Relationship of State of the the Caribou with Landscape Winter Habitat
  • 65. The Path I. Overview I. Industrial Development II. Woodland Caribou III. Issue II. Future Scenario Landuse Planning I. Cellular Automata III. Representing the Woodland Caribou I. Agent Based Modeling IV. Integrating Land and Animal I. Strategic Insight V. Where to Start
  • 66. 1. AGENT Entity Interacts With Environment BASED and Tries To Achieve a Goal MODEL 2. Respond To Sensory Input
  • 67. UNKNOWNS Spatial Distribution and Energy HOW AND WHY CARIBOU SELECT AND USE WINTER Bruce McKay Flickr HABITAT
  • 68. KNOWLEDGE Troy Thomson Flickr
  • 69. Foraging Potential Landscape Internal Energy Travel Costs Predation Risk SENSE Troy Thompson Flickr
  • 70. SIMULATE Acquire Energy: Maintenance Conserve Energy: Reproduction GOAL Minimize Risk and Disturbance
  • 72. OUTPUT Spatial Location Energy GPS Troy Thomson Flickr BIOLOGY
  • 73. The Path I. Overview I. Industrial Development II. Woodland Caribou III. Issue II. Future Scenario Landuse Planning I. Cellular Automata III. Representing the Woodland Caribou I. Agent Based Modeling IV. Integrating Land and Animal I. Strategic Insight V. Where to Start
  • 74. KNOWNS Spatial Distribution and Energy Provide Future Insight Future Bruce McKay Flickr The Future The Relationship of State of the the Caribou with Landscape Winter Habitat
  • 77. WHERE TO START? Project Gigalopolisis SLEUTH netlogo www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/index.html ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ DINAMICA project Repast www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/ repast.sourceforge.net/
  • 79. WHERE TO START? Project Gigalopolisis SLEUTH netlogo www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/index.html ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ DINAMICA project Repast www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/ repast.sourceforge.net/ dabirkig@ucalgary.ca

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Daily Energetic Requirements Pregnant caribouEnergy Required for A Successful CalvingForaging Theory Predation sensitive foraging tradeoffs how hungry vs risk willing to tolerate
  2. sensoryForaging potential of the LandscapeAssess elevation Travel costInternal energy levelsPredation Potential of the LandscapeLandcover type, open, industrial features
  3. Each time step is 30 min; simulation is run for 180 days (winter period)Agent represents pregnant female Output: energy gain/loss per time step, agent activities per time step, spatial coordinates of agents at 4hr-intervals.
  4. Each time step is 30 min; simulation is run for 180 days (winter period)Agent represents pregnant female Output: energy gain/loss per time step, agent activities per time step, spatial coordinates of agents at 4hr-intervals.
  5. Locationlandcover typeseasonal behavioral patternsex activity reduced in late seasonie energetically stressed use easier terrain
  6. Occupy smaller extent and use more energy to live their