Climate change & future 2016

© Project SOUND
Climate Change & the
Future of Local Preserves
and Gardens
Constance M. Vadheim - CSUDH (emeritus)
Friends of Madrona Marsh Annual Meeting - 2016
Madrona Marsh Preserve
January 31, 2016

15 of the past 16 years have been the warmest
on record – that’s a trend we can’t deny!
© Project SOUNDData: NASA GISS. Maps and graph: Makiko Sato, Columbia University

But, why worry about slightly warmer
temperatures (in S. California)?
© Project SOUND

© Project SOUND
What, specifically, does climate change
mean for the South Bay & for S. California?

© Project SOUND
First, let’s consider what we know about
our changing climate

A few definitions
 Weather is the mix of events
that happen each day in our
atmosphere, including
temperature, rainfall and
humidity. Meteorologists
record and predict weather
events daily.
 Climate is the average weather
pattern in a place over many
years. Climate controls the
weather.
 Climate modeling is the use of
sophisticated computer-based
models of the climate system
to understand and predict its
behavior.
© Project SOUND

Predicting future climate: always difficult
 Problems of scale:
 Dealing with large scale/global
causes & effects
 Small scale – what individuals/
states, etc. are interested in
 Many factors (and their
interactions) are important
 Some factors are unpredictable
(volcanic eruptions)
 No long-term data on many of
these factors
 We’ve never experienced changes
anything like this
© Project SOUND

Atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice general circulation
models (AOGCMs)
 Three-dimensional models of the
global atmosphere used in climate
modeling
 Couple atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs),
oceanic GCMs (OGCMs) and
increasingly additional data.
 Based on laws of physics
 Complex – require big computers &
lots of time to run the simulations
 Results are ‘checked/verified’ by
comparing to past/present
 Used to predict the effects of
climate change
© Project SOUND
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Circulation_Model
Global atmospheric modeling began
in the mid-1950’s

Factors that go into currant AOGCM models
 The hydrosphere: the oceans and
other bodies of water
 The cryosphere: including sea
ice, glaciers and ice sheets
 The atmosphere: composition and
behavior
 The biosphere: the amounts and
types of animals and plants
 The geosphere: tectonic
variations such as volcanic
eruptions and moving continents
© Project SOUND
http://scienceandtheworld.com/2013/04/29/wading-into-the-fire-episode-6-climate-modelling-is-a-
tough-gig/

Hadley Model - average maximum temps
© Project SOUND
http://eos-earthdata.sr.unh.edu/thumbnail_pages/tairmaxtc-h2.jsp

Hadley Model - average minimum temps
© Project SOUND
http://eos-earthdata.sr.unh.edu/thumbnail_pages/tairmintc-h2.jsp

Predicting future climate on a smaller,
local scale is much more difficult
© Project SOUND

Most planners currently use data from several
models (and several scenarios) to predict
 When models concur, the
result is more likely to be
correct
 Can compare models and try
to understand the reason for
the differences – increases
our understanding of the
processes
 Allows to ‘bracket’ what the
likely effects will be
© Project SOUND
http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_TemperatureProjections.htm

Cal-Adapt: California’s
climate change data/
mapping source
 Developed by UC Berkeley's
Geospatial Innovation Facility
 Data have been gathered
from California’s scientific
community, and represent
the most current data
available wherever possible.
 Provides data and maps to
planners, researchers and
the public – Climate Tools are
easy to use.
© Project SOUND
http://cal-
adapt.org/blog/2011/apr/13/global-
climate-models/

The Climate Change in the Los Angeles
Region Project
 Series of studies by atmospheric
scientists at UCLA (and others)
 Employ innovative techniques, applying
multiple global climate models to the Los
Angeles region
 Goal: to provide detailed projections of
climate change (through 2100)
 Why important? Direct planning at all
levels (National/state government to your
own backyard)
© Project SOUND
Read about it yourself:
• http://research.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl//LA_project_summary.html
• http://www.kcet.org/news/climate_change_la/
• http://slideplayer.com/slide/6269865/
http://slideplayer.com/slide/6269865/

First Report (2012):"Mid-Century
Warming in the Los Angeles Region."
 By mid-century, Los Angeles will
experience temperatures similar to
what we experience today about 75-
80% of the time (274-292 days a year)
 If we don't reduce global greenhouse
gas emissions, Los Angeles will
continue to get warmer. By the end of
the century, temperatures will be like
they are today only 50- 65% of the
time (1 83- 243 days a year)
© Project SOUND
• hotter than normal temperatures will likely be experienced
primarily in late summer and early fall (our typical hot, dry period).
• December to January and July to August are projected to change
the most (relative to today).

© Project SOUND
Anything that affects plants will also affect the
animals that depend on them
Climate change like this will affect plants in
local Preserves and gardens

Thankfully, plants are pretty adaptable
(they have to be to survive)
 Plants usually have several back-up
systems for dealing with specific
environmental stresses.
 Local species tend to be adaptable –
we live in a fickle Mediterranean climate
 Many local plant species tolerate a range
of:
 Light conditions
 Yearly precipitation
 Soil nutrients & pH
 Temperatures
 Each plant species is unique – some are
more adaptable than others.
© Project SOUND

What difference can a few degrees change
have on our local plants?
© Project SOUND

The South Bay benefits from it’s proximity to
the ocean
© Project SOUND
http://research.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl//LA_project_summary.html
 Areas that are already ‘somewhat
hot’ will see many more days > 95°
 Palmdale, Lancaster
 The San Fernando Valley
 Riverside
 What can we expect (South Bay)?
 More hot days in summer/fall
 More year-to-year variability in both
hot and cold temperatures
 Warmer days in winter (on average)
 Warmer nights in winter; fewer
nights below 45° F

In fact, the last 4 years have been a pretty
good taste of things to come
© Project SOUND

Expect temperature extremes: cold/frosts
 We’ll likely have years that are
colder than usual – and experience
frosts
 Know how to deal with frosts:
 Know which plants are sensitive –
often the natives that are white-
colored; tropical plants
 Heed the frost warnings; cover
plants or be sure they are well
hydrated before frost
 Don’t cut back too quickly – let
plants recover a few weeks
© Project SOUND
See Feb/2013 posting on the
subject – Mother Nature’s
Backyard Blog

In local Preserves, the effects of more high
temperature days (taken alone) will probably be small
 We will only have 5-20 days > 95°/year
 Many native plants have adaptations that
allow them to withstand some ‘high heat’
 Local native plants programmed to ‘expect’
high temperatures in late summer/fall
 But remember:
 These are averages – some years will have
many more hot days & some will be in winter
 Increasing temperatures lead to other
climate changes
 Each plant is different – some are more
heat-tolerant than others
© Project SOUND
http://www.energyatlas.ucla.edu/strategies/
World-wide, plant
species tend to be
affected (stressed) by
temperatures > 85° F.

Local Preserves are
affected by urban heat
island effects
 Some microclimates are hotter
than the average (due location)
 Suburban areas retain more heat –
and are noticeably hotter – than
surrounding rural areas
© Project SOUND
http://www.friendsofmadronamarsh.com/marsh-slide2.html
http://www.beverlyhillscitizen.org/archives/ballona.htm
http://www.c3headlines.com/global-warming-urban-heat-island-bias/

We do need to worry about the effects of
more warm/hot days on local plants
 All plants have optimal temperature
ranges – in general, plants from
hotter places have higher ranges
 Temperatures higher and lower than
the optima affect literally
everything a plant does:
 Taking up water
 Growing new leaves, branches
 Producing flowers, fruits & seeds
 Warding off pests & diseases
 Timing of life & seasonal changes
 Just plain staying alive!
© Project SOUND
http://www.intechopen.com/books/abiotic-stress-plant-responses-and-
applications-in-agriculture/extreme-temperature-responses-oxidative-
stress-and-antioxidant-defense-in-plants
temperatures just beyond the
optimal range can greatly affect
both survival and reproduction

Some local plants have lower optimal
temperatures  Lower optima: [California encelia]
 Often perennial plants that grow rapidly
in winter or early spring
 Often flower in spring – but may in
cooler fall period
 May be completely/mostly dormant in
summer/fall (but not always) – avoid
heat and drought
 Includes a number of local shrubs
 Give gardens/Preserves their spring
color
 Higher optima: [Coast quailbush]
 Grow and flower in warm weather of
later spring, summer
 May be evergreen; shrubs w/ deep roots
 Includes some local plants, warm season
grasses, some desert plants
© Project SOUND
Calif. encelia
Coast quailbush

Studies on food plants document the effects of high
temperatures on food plants grown in local gardens
Food Plant High Temperature Effects (shown by research)
Tomato Reduced fruit number (with only slight ↑ temp)
Lettuce
 Shortened growing season
 Increased incidence of tip burn
 Early bolting (flowering onset)
Stone fruits
Decreased fruit size and quality (effects of both
higher temps & decreased chill hours)
Citrus
Reduced frost losses and increased yields in N. CA;
possible decreases in S. CA
Grapes
 Premature ripening and possible quality reduction
 Increased yield variability
© Project SOUND

© Project SOUND
Some plants will experience effects directly attributable
to ‘intolerable’ heat
We should expect more warm/hot days

© Project SOUND
…and ‘water-wise gardens’ like this just
make things worse

Heat is not just annoying – it kills
 Greater risk of death from
dehydration, heat stroke/
exhaustion, heart attack, stroke,
and respiratory distress
 By mid-century, extreme heat
events in urban centers such as Los
Angeles are projected to cause two
to three times as many heat-
related deaths as there are
today.
 High temperatures stress living
creatures - from bacteria to
mammals.
© Project SOUND
http://leadingwithtrust.com/2013/06/23/are-you-a-
thermometer-or-thermostat-leader/

Garden strategies to combat heat: create
shade with trees, large shrubs & vines
 Look closely at your existing trees
 Are they healthy? Young enough to
survive your lifetime? In the right places
to provide needed shade?
 Plant trees to S & W of buildings NOW
 Choose trees/large shrubs that provide
‘value added’; fruits; habitat value; etc.
 Choose water-wise native species if
possible
© Project SOUND
Use vines and trellises creatively; native vines have many good
attributes in addition to their shade

December to January and July to August are
projected to change the most (relative to today)
© Project SOUND
 What can we expect (S. Bay)?
 Warmer nights (on average) in
summer
 Warmer days in winter (on
average)
 Warmer nights in winter; fewer
nights below 45° F.
http://www.c3headlines.com/global-warming-urban-heat-island-bias/
https://www.zagat.com/b/los-angeles/7-new-outdoor-bars-for-sipping-around-la
The more heat-absorbing
surfaces that surround us, the
warmer the nights (whenever we
have sunny days)

Decreasing hours of chill: bad for W. Coast
agriculture
 ‘Chill factor’ – the number of
hours below a certain temperature
required to trigger some plant
behavior (often flowering)
 Most important for fruiting
trees/shrubs, ‘winter annuals’ and
biennials
 Fruit and nut production in
California will likely be seriously
affected
 May also affect those of us
that grow ‘low chill’ fruits in
home gardens [Anna apple; Fuji
apple; Black Mission fig; Santa
Rosa plum]
© Project SOUND
DECREASING CHILL HOURS,
2070-2099

How will decreased hours of chill affect local
native plants (in gardens & Preserves)?
 Some native shrubs from
slightly higher elevations, more
northern latitudes and the high
desert (which experience more
chill) will likely not produce as
well/reliably:
 Manzanita?
 Native cherries & other Prunus
 ? Coffeeberry & other Rhamnus
species
 ??? Hard to predict
 Research is desperately needed
on native species that provide
food for birds & other
creatures.
© Project SOUND
http://irri.org/rice-today/rice-feels-the-heat
Lots of research on effects of
heat on crop species – very
little on native plant species

Local Preserves & gardens
are vulnerable to heat
waves throughout the year
 High temperatures are often
accompanied by dry conditions.
 Santa Ana conditions constitute a
‘double (maybe triple) whammy’.
© Project SOUND
http://www.friendsofmadronamarsh.com/marsh-slide2.html
http://www.beverlyhillscitizen.org/archives/ballona.htm
http://theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/049/index.html

Subtle changes in temperature can effect sensitive
systems – in plants and in the climate/environment
 Global/local temperatures (including ocean temperatures) affect:
 Precipitation: amount, timing and type
 Winds: patterns, timing, velocity
 Humidity: degree, timing
 Soil conditions: moisture, organisms
Everything is interconnected

Precipitation change in the 20th century
 Most of the U.S. saw
increased precipitation
 S. CA and Arizona saw
significant decreases
© Project SOUND
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/precipitation.html

This has not been a good 4 years for the West
 All of California in some level of drought throughout 2015
 Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 36,660,308
© Project SOUND

© Project SOUND
Totals: 2013 = 3.5 inches 2014 = 9.5 inches 2015 = 6.5 inches
What was I thinking, starting a
garden in 2012 (and 2014)?

Predicting S. California’s future
precipitation is challenging
© Project SOUND
 Role of El Nino events is not
well understood – and they
have a role in our precipitation
 We have complex topography
 Our area lies right between
two areas on which most
models agree:
 An area of more
precipitation to the north
 An area of significantly
less precipitation to the
south

“21st Century Precipitation Changes over
the Los Angeles Region” - 2014
 Major findings:
 Probably about the same amount of precipitation overall
(some models suggest slightly higher – some slightly lower)
 Continued high year-to-year variability
 Less precipitation falling as snow (40% decrease in
snowfall) due to increasing temperatures
 Higher wintertime stream/runoff flows
 Need to capture/infiltrate to conserve as much water as
possible
 For more see:
http://www.kcet.org/news/climate_change_la/downloads/LARC_PartIII
_V2.pdf © Project SOUND

Slight decrease or
slight increase?
 Probably wisest to assume
somewhat drier conditions –
and less water available
for home gardens
 Year-to-year variability
will likely increase
 Plan for drought years
 Plan enough flexibility to
deal with wet years:
 Plant choices
 Water infiltration/
conservation
© Project SOUNDhttp://cal-adapt.org/precip/decadal/
PV peninsula
Much of South Bay
Los Angeles average since 1877
thru 2012 (135 years): 14.98 inches

Good news – El Niño year this year!
© Project SOUND
 The period October through March tends to be wetter than usual in a
swath extending from southern California eastward across Arizona,
southern Nevada and Utah, New Mexico, and into Texas.
 There are more rainy days, and there is more rain per rainy day. El
Nino winters can be two to three times wetter than La Nina winters in
this region.

We’re all anxiously watching & waiting…
© Project SOUND
… wondering what all this means for the future

Where’s our El Niño?
 Many areas are getting above normal precipitation. Why aren’t we?
 Blame it on a strong mass of high pressure
 Heats our atmosphere
 Causes the wet, subtropical Jet Stream to
move North or South (keeps it out)
 Brings us (you guessed it) Santa Ana Winds
© Project SOUND
Los Angeles Times – January 22, 2016

© Project SOUND
heat
smog
drought
Santa Ana winds
unusual rain patterns

Local precipitation is influenced by many
factors
 Large scale
 Overall global temperatures &
temperature gradients
 Ocean temperatures and
temperature gradients
 Location of the Polar and
Subtropical Jet Streams
 Many other factors, including
some we know little about
 Local
 Proximity to the ocean
 Local temperature gradients
(specifically, desert vs. coast)
 Elevation
 Location in relationship to
mountain ranges
© Project SOUND

We can’t really explain why the masses of high
pressure have been so strong/constant recently
 We do know they’ve influenced our weather –
significantly - for at least the past 4 years
 That’s reason for concern – is this our new
normal?
 Are the past 4 years a taste of things to come?
© Project SOUND
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_front

© Project SOUND
Some days, you just want to weep….

© Project SOUND
California wildlands dramatically illustrate the
combined effects of heat, drought & wind

We needn’t discuss the direct effects of
drought on local gardens
© Project SOUND
 Longer ‘fall warm period’ – lasting well into December or
later in some years
 ? More variable onset of spring warm season
 ? Earlier onset of spring warm season

Plants are particularly sensitive to the effects of
temperature & moisture at certain stages of development
 Seed germination
 Development of the flower
(particularly the pollen-producing
organs)
 Pollen production & viability
 Pollen transfer (‘pollination’)
 Actual fertilization process
(several steps)
 Seed/propagule development
© Project SOUND
Note that all of these impact the reproductive success of a
plant – and ultimately of a species

Stages of the reproductive cycle have to happen at
the right time – timing is everything
 Temperature
 Soil moisture
 Humidity
 Light
 Pollinator availability
 Seed distribution system
availability
© Project SOUND
So, over time, plants have modified their reproductive
cycles to synchronize with their local climate
https://www.filamentgames.com/reach-sun-lesson-3-plant-life-cycles-and-
reproduction

Plants regulate their daily and yearly behaviors
based on cues from the environment
 Intensity and color of light
 Periods of light and dark
 Temperature
 Soil moisture (precipitation)
 Physical factors
 Wind
 Other, including chemicals in
the air, water & soil
 Animals
 Other plants
© Project SOUND

The ‘constant cues’ are necessary for
things to happen at the ‘right time’
© Project SOUND

Many types of plant behaviors are temperature
regulated (in at least some plants)
 All or none effects
 Flowering
 Fruiting
 Seed germination
 Timing (earlier/later) effects
 Timing of bud-set; leaf-loss
 Timing of bud-break (leafing out)
 Timing of seed germination
 Timing of flowering & fruiting
© Project SOUND
http://www.psycholawlogy.com/2013/03/04/psychological-detachmentthe-importance-and-benefits-of-mentally-switching-off-during-leisure-time/

What types of temperature cues do plants
use to regulate behaviors?
 Number of hours below a certain
temperature in a year (chill factor)
 Number of days above a certain
temperature
 Number of consecutive days below a
certain temperature
 The difference between high and low
temperatures in a 24 hour period
© Project SOUND
Plants use the most reliable cues (in their particular climate) to ensure
that key behaviors (like pollen production) don’t happen too soon
http://alecclayton.blogspot.com/2014/01/v-
behaviorurldefaultvmlo.html

What happens when ‘constant’
environmental cues change too quickly?
These are the questions that keep biologists and
Preserve Managers awake at night!
© Project SOUND

The ‘Perils of Pollen’: is pollen the weak link in
our hotter, drier, more variable world?
 Direct effects:
 Production of viable pollen
 Pollination/fertilization (pollen
germination, pollen tube growth, and
fertilization)
 Indirect effects:
 Timing/development of female
flowers or floral parts
 Pollinator availability (biologic &
abiotic)
 Pollination/fertilization (pollen-stigma
interaction, fertilization)
© Project SOUND
The consequences of incorrect timing can be catastrophic

So what – I’ll just go and buy some more seed
© Project SOUND
http://www.thelittlegreenhomemaker.com/garden-primer-how-to-read-your-seed-packets

If a plant species can’t reproduce, ultimately
it will die out, at least in that area
© Project SOUND
Native grasses failed to
reproduce
Any plant species loss has the potential to affect all the animal
species which depend on it

The timing of a plant’s life cycle is not just
important for the plant
© Project SOUND

Plants, animals and seasons: disturbing new
trends world-wide
 Many plant species are responding
to climate change by advancing the
onset of events in the yearly cycle.
 The earlier onset of bud burst,
flowering, and fruiting could have
major impacts on timing-sensitive
relationships with pollinators,
seed dispersers, and herbivores.
 Events that have long occurred in
synchrony may become decoupled,
which could especially impact plant
species with specialized pollinators
and seed dispersers.
© Project SOUND

We need also consider the direct effects
of climate change on pollinators, other
insects and reptiles/amphibians
 Some species – and types of
animals – are more vulnerable
 Animal reproduction and survival
are directly influenced by:
 Temperature
 Water
 Soil moisture
 Wind
 Air pollutants
 Both plants and animals are facing
new biotic challenges – pests and
pathogens
© Project SOUND

Air pollution: what can we expect in the future?
 ↑ emissions due increased population?
 Smoke from wild fires
 ? More stagnant air
 ? More particulates (due to decreased
precipitation)
 Because warm, stagnant air tends to
increase the formation of ozone,
climate change is likely to increase
levels of ground-level ozone in
already-polluted areas and increase
the number of days with poor air
quality
© Project SOUND
http://www.climatechoices.org/impacts_health/

Santa Ana winds & air pollution in western
L.A. county
 Santa Anas (off-shore flow) mean
more air pollution in our area –
you may have noticed this
recently
 ? Longer season for Santa Anas
 Maybe 20% fewer Santa Ana
events as winter temps in desert
increase
 But even past records suggest
more extremes
© Project SOUND
http://www.achangeinthewind.com/2008/10/good-news-friday-global-warming-lessening-santa-
ana-wind-conditions.html
http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2011/12/01/santa-ana-
wind-season-may-be-stretched-by-climate-change/

Heat, drought and air pollution can increase
plant susceptibility to pests & pathogens
© Project SOUND
Polyphagous shot hole borer
http://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=8170

Plant disease
changing
 In both animals and plants, an unprecedented number of fungal and
fungal- like diseases have recently caused some of the most severe
die-offs and extinctions ever witnessed in wild species, and are
jeopardizing food security.
 Consequences for local Preserves and gardens:
 More severe effects of old pests (plants are less able to cope)
 New pests adapted to the changing climate: temperature & precipitation
The past two decades have
seen an increasing number of
virulent infectious diseases in
natural populations and
managed landscapes.

Effects of temperature on birds
 Observed effects: 1965 to 2005
 Birds moved north in winter
 Among 305 widespread North
American bird species, the average
mid-December to early January
center of abundance moved
northward
 The average species shifted
northward by 35 miles during this
period (see Figure 1). Trends in
center of abundance are closely
related to winter temperatures.
 Birds moved further from the
coast
 Effects vary by species – but local
resident & migrant species are
already changing
© Project SOUND

Temperature is one of the most important
influences on plant distribution

Temperature and rainfall limit plant
distributions in S. CA as well
 Air temperature decreases
with increasing elevation
 Air temperature gradients
can explain the distribution
of C3 (cool-season) and C4
(warm-season) grasses and
many other types of plants
 Precipitation interacts with
temperature in limiting
species distributions
Plant species are already ‘marching up the mountains’ all
around the world

http://www.californiachaparral.org/threatstochaparral/cclimatechange.html
What will California look like?

The grim realities: plant communities in a
time of significant climate change
 Climate change is already impacting
plants and altering the structure of plant
communities.
 Species that are particularly vulnerable
to climate change include:
 Those with limited ranges and dispersal
abilities (long lifespan and/or limited seed
dispersal.
 Some isolated or disjunct species
(including those isolated by human
incursion)
 Plant genetic composition may change in
response to the selection pressure of
climate change.
© Project SOUND

 Evidence from historical plant
migrations (e.g. those that occurred at
the end of previous ice ages) suggests
that while some species will migrate to
areas with appropriate climates, many
plant species will not be able to
migrate fast enough to keep pace
with current rates of warming.
 Some plant communities or species
associations may be lost as species
move and adapt at different rates.
© Project SOUND

 Increased invasions by alien species may occur, as
conditions become more suitable for exotic species whilst
native species become less well suited to their environment.
© Project SOUND

What will our climate be like in the S. Bay?
1. Slight overall incr. in average temperatures, # high heat days
2. Significant changes in the temperature patterns:
 Hotter July & August
 Warmer winter/early spring
 Warmer night temperatures – and less winter chill
 More year-to-year temperature extremes
© Project SOUND

3. Significant changes in the timing
of seasons:
 Longer fall dry season (into
December or even longer)
 Earlier spring (at least in some
years)
 Shorter winters
4. About the same amount of
precipitation
5. More precipitation extremes:
droughts and floods
6. Timing of onset of rains more
variable
© Project SOUND

7. More rain/less snow as temperatures rise. ? less irrigation
8. ? More (or less) frequent Santa Ana winds (all year-round -
not just in fall/winter)
9. ? More smog
© Project SOUND

What will be the likely consequences for
plants and animals?
1. Some plants will be killed outright
by temperature & precipitation
extremes (including some that are
not really so extreme)
2. Some plants will have a tough time
reproducing, due to either direct
or indirect consequences of
temperature/precipitation
3. Changing seasonality may disrupt
long-standing synchronicities:
 Plants & weather
 Plants and pollinators
 Plants and other beneficial
creatures
© Project SOUND

plants and animals?
4. Some native plant species may not
survive
5. The biodiversity in local native
plant communities will change
6. Non-native invasive species –
especially those better suited to
the changing climate – will become
more of a problem
7. New diseases & pests (of both
plants and animals) will also affect
biodiversity in Preserves and
gardens
© Project SOUND

plants and animals?
8. Temperature/precipitation &
pollution extremes will render
some plants more vulnerable
to pests, pathogens, etc.
9. Animals of all sorts and sizes
will likely be more vulnerable
to starvation; creatures
having more specialized
relationships with plants will
be most vulnerable
© Project SOUND

plants and animals?
10. The biodiversity of creatures
inhabiting our Preserves and
gardens will likely change:
 Due to direct effects of
temperature, precipitation, etc.
 Due to indirect effects:
 Changing plant community
 Changing predator/pathogen
community
 Dis-synchronicities that affect
breeding and food sources
© Project SOUND

Steps we can take, right now, in our
gardens (home, school, parks, other)
 Plant a water-wise tree for shade
 Choose water-wise natives over non-
natives
 Better suited for our climate, soils
 Provide better habitat
 Re-think how we choose plants (gardens
are more ‘insulated’ from drought)
 Choose native plants that are rare/
endangered
 Choose plants that provide habitat (may be
critical in some years)
 Choose hardy, drought-tolerant species
(may be less susceptible to pests/disease/
etc.
© Project SOUND

More steps to take
 Let garden plants provide food:
seeds, fruits, vegetation
 Plant with the seasons – it stresses
plants less
 Change your watering strategy: good
deep watering in winter/spring [we’ll
have to educate our water
companies]
 Be sure that every drop of rain that
falls on your garden stays in your
garden
 Be vigilant about invasive weeds and
pests – certainly don’t plant any!
© Project SOUND

Difficult choices to think about for our
local Preserves
 Should we water? When?
 To supplement winter drought?
 To allow us to do restoration in
dry years?
 To keep key species alive
 Some plant species will not be
able to reproduce in the wild.
Should we artificially plant
seedlings? Take other steps?
 How do we prioritize species
when supplying rare resources
(like water)
© Project SOUND

More difficult topics for consideration
 How do we define ‘local plant
community’ – static or changing
 How can we increase genetic
diversity in small, local Preserves
 How best to maintain surveillance
for invasive species, pests,
pathogens? How best to combat
these invaders (in a way that
causes least impact on the
ecosystem)
© Project SOUND

Climate change & future 2016

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