1. korea102014

1. Bubble
October 2014

2. London
1987

3. After Black Monday

4. First day in the market
Eric

5. “Buy or a Sell?”

6. Undervalued = Buy

7. Financial Analyst

8. Fundamental Analysis
PE, Dividend, Payout Ratio,
Cash flow, ROE…
Explanation Analysis
Crossholding, Triple Merits,
Accounting difference, theme driven
✗
✓
Financial Freshman

9. My First Bubble!

10. Tokyo Real Estate Bubble
1987-1990

11. Qnot Yield

12. Total Market Value
Asset Replacement Value
Qratio
Below 1 undervalued BUY
Over 1 overvalued SELL
Q=

13. Tokyo Bay Bubble

14. Real Estate Theme
Construction
Construction Materials
Construction Machines
Banks, Financials, Warrants
Railways, Warehouse
Companies with Tokyo headquarters
Tokyo Gas…..
How Bubble Spread

15. Nikkei Peak 38,957.44
Dec 29, 1989

16. Bust!
Jan 1990

17. Came To Japan
1990

18. Financial Analyst
Basic Materials
Component
Utility

19. The most “exciting” sector
NTT
KDDI

20. Telecom Deregulation
1994

21. DDI, Japan Telecom,Teleway
Tuka, Digital Tuka, Digital Phone,
DDI Pocket, NTT Personal, Astel
NTT Breakup (NTT EW, Com, Data)
Telecom construction
Component, handsets
Docomo
More companies to cover…

22. Mobile Boom
“Mobile phone will not penetrate in Japan”
(Comment from top sell side telecom star analyst)
1994

23. Valuation
Pop, DCF, EBITDA, PE, Dividend

24. Subscribers/Revenue
Penetration Cycle
Cash flow (Shareholders return)
(M&A)
Maximum accumulated loss
(optimal capital structure)
Capex/Marketing
Pop value (Spectrum)
DCF
(WACC)
EBITDA
PE
Free Cash flow
ROE Dividend

25. DocomoIPO
1998

26. comBubble
1999

27. Telecom, CLECs
Internet, ISP, AOL
IT, Devices, Chipsets
Cyber, Information Superhighway
eFlower, eToy, e…..
eVerythingis a Buy!
How Bubble Spread

28. “Eric…you are out of fashion!”
(comment from a Buy Side analyst)
1999

29. Dollar per eyeball

30. Buy or a Sell?

31. everything is overvalued
evenericis overvalued = Sell

32. Time to Leave
Nov 1999

33. NASDAQ Peak 5408.60
March 2000

34. eAccess
Nov 1999

35. Venture Started with
AluminiumDoor & two tables

36. ADSL = ADS Hell

37. YBB! + 911
2001

38. Buy or a Sell?

39. eTremelyUndervalued = Buy

40. Turn profits & IPO
2003

41. EMOBILE
2005

42. Raised $4.0 billion
(Debt + Private Equity)

43. CapexOpexSales Marketing

44. US Sub Prime Bubble
2005

45. Credit Market Products
MBS, CDO, ABS, CMBS

46. Bust -Lehman Shock
2008

47. Tsunami
Mar 11, 2011

48. eAccessRefinancing (High Yield)
5X Oversubscribed
Mar 2011

49. LTE

50. iPhone 5
Sept 2012

51. I got a call!

52. VC, Private Equity,
Project Finance (JDSL)
IPO, CB, SB,
Senior Debt Financing
M&A (ACCA, AOL Japan),
High Yield, Swap
Stock Exchange Merger
Delisted Dec 2012
eAccessStory –Incredible experience
(1999 to 2014)
Start-up, business plan
HR, Network, Technology
Accounting, Reporting
Regulator, License
Product, Pricing
Marketing, Channels
Churn, Customer Support
Operational synergy
Financial
Operational

53. Private & Quiet

54. 2014

55. New Challenge Just Begins

56. Final Takeaway

57. To become TRUE Entrepreneur
Business Focus First

58. Valuation?
Interest
Consumers
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profits
Cash flow
Dividend
Greed
Fear

59. New Bubbles?

60. “The bubble never bother me anyway!”
Thank you