Kennards Hire Planning Day - Craig Rispin, Business Futurist & Innovation Expert

A.T. Kearney Studied
Why Strategic Planning
Sessions Tend to Fail...

Strategy Formulation What Goes Wrong?
Lack of understanding of future trends (88%)
Little understanding of internal capabilities (87%)
Too much top-down approach (84%)
Not enough logical thinking (84%)

Kennards Future Planning Day
Global Overview - Exponential Change
The S.T.E.E.P. Changes Driving Commerce and Your Industry Globally
Break with Discussion Topic
Sorting of Major Trends Most Relevant to Kennards
Rapid Future Scenario Model Creation -
What’s the Most Probably Future World We’ll Bet On?
Lunch Break with Discussion Topics
Turning Scenarios Into Strategy Introduction -
Using“Playing to Win: How Strategy Really Works”as Our Model

“Craig we’ve seen more
change in the last 3 years
than in the last 30.”

People
Business Technology
Life Sciences
W
ork/Life Shift
Acceleration
Age Wave
Education
Re-Engineering
Global
Nomads
Free
Agency
End of
Retirement
Emerging Models
Sharing
Economy
Marketing
Megatrend
Trust
Economy
Machine Learning
Cloud
Computing
Security
Scare
Coworking &
Collaboration
Massively
Mobile
Internet of
Things
Big Data

Technology Changes
Exponentially
People Think Linearly

We’re Living in a World
of Exponential Change

Did You Know -
That in 2028?
Video Discussion

Discuss with a Partner:
What Did You Find Most
Interesting in the Video?

“If change is
happening on
the outside
faster than on
the inside -
the end is in
sight.”
-Jack Welch

As Some Opportunities Sunset...

Where iPhones are
More Valuable Than Oil

And 96 Companies are
Valued at More Than
$1Billion

Just Think Where
We Were Just
5, 10 or 15 Years Ago

15 Years Ago - The Dot Com Bubble

We’ve Made It Back - Only Took 15 Years

Are We in Another
Tech Bubble?

How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
6.8B Mobile Subscribers
1.5B 3G/LTE Subscribers

1.9 Billion Mobiles
Sold in 2014

How Many Mobile
Internet Devices
in Your House?

This is Leading Many
Organisations to Have a
‘Mobile First Policy’...

The Future of Mobile
is Massive!

The Age Wave -
Your Customers of
the Future

0
POPULATION
2.42 million - 10%
% OF WORKFORCE
Today: 1% | 2025: 0%
UNI DEGREE: 1 in 10
POPULATION
5.17 million - 22%
% OF WORKFORCE
Today: 25% | 2025: 8%
UNI DEGREE: 1 in 5
POPULATION
4.78 million - 20%
% OF WORKFORCE
Today: 31% | 2025: 28%
UNI DEGREE: 1 in 4
POPULATION
5.22 million - 22%
% OF WORKFORCE
Today: 34% | 2025: 33%
UNI DEGREE: 1 in 3
POPULATION
4.43 million - 18%
% OF WORKFORCE
Today: 9% | 2025: 31%
UNI DEGREE: 1 in 2
POP.
1.9 m
8%
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015‘40 ‘50 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90 ‘00 ‘10
6 million
70+ 51-69 36-50 21-35 6-20
<6
24 million
α
80.0 84.3
Life expectancy at birth
33.0 30.8
Median age of parents (new births)
29.9 28.3
Median age ﬁrst marriage
Australia: 1.9 OECD: 1.7
Total fertility rate
ZYXB BB
A U S T R A L I A’ S G E N E R AT I O N A L P R O F I L E
P O P U L AT I O N B Y Y E A R O F B I R T H
BUILDERS
GENERATIONALPHA
BABYBOOMERS
GENERATIONX
GENERATIONY
GENERATIONZ

CITY
SYDNEY
MELBOURNE
BRISBANE
PERTH
ADELAIDE
Gold Coast
Newcastle
ACT/CANBERRA
Central Coast
Sunshine Coast
Wollongong
HOBART
Geelong
Townsville
Cairns
DARWIN
Toowoomba
Ballarat
Bendigo
Albury/Wodonga
Mackay
Launceston
Rockhampton
Bunbury
Bundaberg
Coﬀs Harbour
Wagga Wagga
Hervey Bay
Mildura
Gladstone
‘000
4,919
4,539
2,329
2,107
1,318
629
435
394
326
303
293
220
187
184
151
144
116
100
93
89
88
86
83
77
71
69
56
52
51
50
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
11
12
15
16
WA
2.63m - 11.0%
2.2% 1.87
NT
0.25m - 1.0%
1.0% 2.12
SA
1.70m - 7.1%
0.9% 1.85
QLD
4.79m - 20.1%
1.5% 1.94
NSW
7.63m - 32.0%
1.9% 1.94
ACT
0.39m - 1.6%
1.2% 1.78
TAS
0.52m - 2.2%
0.3% 2.01
VIC
5.95m - 25.0%
1.9% 1.77
A U S T R A L I A
Population: 24 million
Population growth rate: 1.6%
Total fertility rate: 1.9
Full-time
8.1 mil
Part-time
3.6 mil
Unemployed
0.8 mil
Households
9.1 mil
Average household size
2.6 people/household
Median age
37.3
Births
300,900
Deaths
148,600
Natural increase
152,300
Arrivals
492,400
Departures
279,900
Net overseas migration
212,500
E M P L O Y M E N T
P O P U L AT I O N
H O U S E H O L D S
Total employed
11.7 mil
Unemployment rate
6.2%
Total population growth
364,800 people/year
Natural
increase
42%
Net overseas
migration
58%
A U S T R A L I A ’ S P O P U L A T I O N M A P
MAP KEY CITY BY POPULATION
POPULATION
GROWTH

What Will Your
Customer of the
Future Look Like?

Just Have a Look at
Some of Them Now!

What’s the First and Last Thing
She Does Everyday?

Is a Digital Native from Birth...

Life Changing Device at 99 Years

Requires New Hires to Update
Linkedin.com Profiles on Their First Day

She’s Tracking Her Fitnessth Awareness…
NOW…
(Nike+ / Jawbone UP)
Always-On Tracking + Syncing + Analytics /
Quantified Self

And That’s Today...
In 5 Years What Will
Customers Be Like?

Customers in 5 Years Forecast:
Data Driven - Real Time Information on Vendors
Transparency Abounds
Expert Seeking - Looking for Experts to Simplify
and Advise, Provide Clear Solutions
Legislated Access - Most Forms of Comms to
Customers Controlled by Customers by Law
Brand Un-Loyalty - Loyalty Continues to
Evaporate as New Brands Grow Rapidly

Digital Customers Like
Digital Solutions
(and Personalised Service Too)
High-Tech/High-Touch
Customers

The Internet of Things:
50 Billion Devices
by 2020?

MWC IoT: 50 Billion Is Only the Beginning!

What Year Does the
Number of Devices on
the Internet Exceed
Number of People?

Ultra-Sensitive Electrical Biosensor Unlocks
Potential for Instant Diagnostic Devices
Source: University of California, Santa Barbara April 17, 2012

Conﬁdential and Proprietary space150 ©2013
iBeacon was created to enable your
phone to do things when you’re
close to a specific location
like alert you when you’re in front of this Apple Store
image source: Apple

Retail foot traffic is
down
Foot traffic is down 50% in three
years from 2010 to 2013.
!
Online commerce is having a large and
permanent impact on the traditional
retail environment.
!
!
!
!
!
!
source: Wall Street Journal

E-commerce continues
to grow
Digital sales are growing at the
expense of offline sales.
!
“growth is coming from existing
online shoppers who are spending
more time and money - and in a
wider variety of categories - online”
!
!
!
!
!
source: Mashabl

V2V: Will Be Mandated
in All New Vehicles by
2017

Big Data:
Data Scientists & Visualizations

What’s This a Chart of?
It’s the Facebook Breakup Chart

1 Billion Names
are Googled
Every Day

There Are No
More Blind
Dates...

SEO is Dead (or Dying)
Paid Placement &
Social Proof Rules

Online Reputation
Managment
(ORM)

Rapid Scenario Planning
(Lite Version)

Right Away
This Year
Next Year
2 Years
3-5 Years

Individuals Can Now Do...
What Companies Used to Do

Companies Can Now Do...
What Countries Used to Do

You’re holding a handbook for visionaries, game changers,
and challengers striving to defy outmoded business models
and design tomorrow’s enterprises. It’s a book for the…
written by
Alexander Osterwalder & Yves Pigneur
co-created by
An amazing crowd of 470 practitioners from 45 countries
designed by
Alan Smith, The Movement

KR
Key Resources
KP
Key Partners
KA
Key Activities
C$
Cost Structure
CS
Customer Segments
CR
Customer Relationships
VP
Value Propositions
CH
Channels
R$
Revenue Streams

Kennards Hire Planning Day - Craig Rispin, Business Futurist & Innovation Expert

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Kennards Hire Planning Day - Craig Rispin, Business Futurist & Innovation Expert