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Technologies et Innovations 2013
« vers un nouveau champ des possibles »
Claude RIOUSSET Executive Architect Systems & Technology Group
© 2013 IBM Corporation
2. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
La technologie est au coeur de toutes les entreprises
Tous les deux ans, nous demandons à
des dirigeants d’entreprise de désigner
les trois facteurs externes qui auront le
plus fort impact sur leur organisation. Si
les facteurs de marché tiennent toujours
le premier rang, les facteurs
technologiques n’ont cessé de gagner
en importance relative.
En 2011, ce sont plus de 3000 DSI
couvrant 71 pays et 18 industries qui ont
partagé comment cette technologie
était au cœur du changement, de
l’innovation et du succès de leurs
entreprises. 2011 IBM Global CIO Study
« Le DSI Indispensable »
“New technologies are about to disrupt the industry.”
Industrial Products CIO, Germany
2 © 2013 IBM Corporation
3. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Pour la première fois, les CEO’s placent la Technologie
en tête des facteurs majeurs pour leur Entreprise.
External forces that will impact the organization – 2012 CEO Study
3 © 2013 IBM Corporation
Source: Q1 “What are the most important external forces that will impact your organization over the next 3 to 5 years?”
4. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
La 3ème génération de l’infrastructure informatique, la 3ème phase de l'Internet, et l'explosion
de l'information entrent en résonance pour engendrer une transformation majeure des usages.
Phases of the
Internet
1964 1981 1994 2003 2008 2012
2020-2
Generations of
Computing
Platforms
Amount of Data
Collected and
Stored
Source: Bill Chamberlin
HorizonWatch: Top Technology Trends To Watch In 2012
4 © 2013 IBM Corporation
5. Cette technologie est l'ADN d'IBM depuis toujours
2011+ Cognitive Computing Chip
2011 3D Chip
2011+ Watson
2010 CMOS Integrated Silicon Nanophotonics
2010 Transistor 100 GHz graphene
2009 Nano MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging)
2008 World’s First Petaflop Supercomputer
2005 Cell
2004 Blue Gene/L
2003 Carbon Nanotubes
1997 Copper Interconnect Wiring
1997 Deep Blue
1994 Silicon Germanium (SiGe)
1987 High-Temperature Superconductivity
1986 Scanning Tunneling Microscope
1980 RISC
1971 Speech Recognition
1970 Relational Database
1967 Fractals
1966 One-Device Memory Cell
1957 FORTRAN
1956 RAMAC © 2013 IBM Corporation
5
6. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Un politique d’investissement dans l’innovation, et leader depuis 20 années
IBM inventors received a record 6,478 U.S. patents in 2012,
marking the 20th consecutive year it has topped the list of
the world’s most inventive companies. IBM became the first
company to be granted as many as 5,000 U.S. patents in a
single year. It took IBM's inventors more than 50 years to
receive their first 5,000 patents after the company was
established in 1911. IBM's first patent: U.S. Patent #998,631
issued July 25, 1911.
6 © 2013 IBM Corporation
7. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
IBM Research: The World is Our Lab
Dublin
• Smarter Zurich China
Cities • Science • Software
• Nanotech Materials • Internet of Things (IoT)
Watson Haifa
Almaden • Semiconductors • “Big Data” Analytics Tokyo
• Analytics • Systems • Security • Integrated Solutions
• Storage • Software & Services • Accessibility
• Nanotech Austin India
Healthcare • Semiconductors • Services
• Processors • Mobile Communications
Africa
• Smarter Cities
Brazil
• Natural Resources Melbourne
• Smarter Devices • Natural Resources
• Human Systems / Events • Disaster Mgmt
• Healthcare / Life
IBM Research Labs Sciences
IBM Research – Openings in 2011
IBM Research – Openings in 2012
© 2013 IBM Corporation
8. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Vers un nouveau paysage de l’IT….
8 © 2013 IBM Corporation
9. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
…. structuré par Quatre grandes Tendances
Croissance des usages / Accès simplifié
Users
Transactions
Computations
Data
Facteurs technologiques
Une donnée multiple 4V & plus consommable
Data and data management
Workloads
Discovering insights
Interaction
L’accélération des rythmes
Evolving business ecosystem
Dynamic scalability
Minimize time-to-value
Social – Mobile – Cloud Keeping pace with technology and globalization
– Big Data / Analytics
Une explosion des capteurs…
Proliferation of sensors and devices
Demand for personalization
Just in time
© 2013 IBM Corporation
10. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Vers un quatrième modèle.
Confluence of Social Mobile Cloud
Big Data / Analytics
World Wide Web
and eBusiness
Client Server
PC - 1981
Back Office
Computing
60’s 80’s 90’s We are here
© 2013 IBM Corporation
11. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
4 Technologies clefs qui vont changer notre écosystème IT
Cognitive Computing
“Synapse” devices
Compute+
Natural
Language+ Deep Q&A
Computers
BIG/+ analytics
Data
Fast
Analytics (zettabytes +
milli / microseconds
Big Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
Massive parallelism
Flexible system
Workload optimization
Optimized
Systems Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
Photonics
1B Transistors DNA Transistor
1T Devices
Nano
Devices
Power7 chip
11 © 2013 IBM Corporation
12. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Des Nano Composants aux Nano Systèmes
Cognitive Computing
“Synapse” devices
Compute+
Natural
Language+ Deep Q&A
Computers
BIG/+ analytics
Data
Fast
Analytics (zettabytes +
milli / microseconds
Big Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
Massive parallelism
Flexible system
Workload optimization
Optimized
Systems Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
Photonics
1B Transistors DNA Transistor
1T Devices
Nano
Devices
Power7 chip
12 © 2013 IBM Corporation
13. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
La Feuille de route vers le Nanomètre…
Des innovations et des ruptures technologiques à chaque étape.
C Electronics
Fully Depleted
Devices
HfO2
Si Nano-Wire
Si NW
ETSOI Deposited Si
FINFET
Conventional
Planar Device
22/20 nm 15/11 nm 8 nm & Beyond
13 © 2013 IBM Corporation
14. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Vision : >1 Tbps dans un composant complexe en 3D
Light out
for off-chip traffic
Multiplexo
r
Modulato Photo- Analog Digital Inter-layer
r detector CMOS CMOS 3D vias
14 © 2013 IBM Corporation
15. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
La recherche au service de nouveaux usages: Séquencement de l’ADN
15 © 2013 IBM Corporation
16. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Du Petascale à l’Exascale
Cognitive Computing
“Synapse” devices
Compute+
Natural
Language+
Deep Q&A
Analytics Computers
BIG/Fast
Data + analytics
(zettabytes +
milli / microseconds
Big Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
Massive parallelism
Flexible system
optimization
Workload
Optimized
Systems Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
Photonics
1B Transistors DNA Transistor
1T Devices
Nano
Devices
Power7 chip
16 © 2013 IBM Corporation
17. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Exascale, une nouvelle accélération
System Improvement
(consolidation, integration, performance,
power efficiency, cost/performance)
4x/2years
1000x
Smarter Planet
High-performance
Enterprise
Historic trend:
2x/2years
30x
Increasingly
commoditized space
Now +5 yrs +10 yrs +15 yrs
A large class of emerging applications (Smarter Planet, high-performance enterprise), for which network-speed processing and data/compute
intensive modeling and simulation are an integral component, will require significant improvement in systems characteristics
(consolidation, integration, performance, power efficiency, cost/performance). These applications represent a significant growth opportunity.
© 2013 IBM Corporation
18. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Vers l’Exascale, via la maîtrise de nouveaux enjeux technologiques.
Overall Performance = 1000X
Performance / watt = 135X
Performance / $ = 1000X
1 PetaFlop Footprint = <2%
72 BG/P Referenced to1PF system
Racks
(2007)
CPU Phase Silicon
Photonics
Change
Memory 3D
Software
The Next Ten Years
20 PetaFlop
96 BG/Q
Racks
(2011-2)
1 PetaFlop = 1/3 rack
Source: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/22/ibm_bluegene_q_chip/ 18
© 2013 IBM Corporation
19. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Des composants au Systèmes Intégrés
© 2013 IBM Corporation
20. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
De l’explosion des données vers une analyse réactive.
Cognitive Computing
Compute+ “Synapse” devices
Natural
Language+ Deep Q&A
Computers
BIG/Fast
Analytics Data + analytics
(zettabytes +
milli / microseconds
Big Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
Massive parallelism
Flexible system
Workload optimization
Optimized
Systems Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
Photonics
1B Transistors DNA Transistor
1T Devices
Nano
Device
Power7 chip
s
20 © 2013 IBM Corporation
21. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Le Multimedia: La vague majeure du traitement de la Donnée
Safety / Security High
Exa
Sophistication of Analysis
Computational Needs
10s millions cameras
Data Volume
Video
Expressiveness
Healthcare Peta
Med
Tera Image
1B medical images/yr
Customer
Audio
Giga Text
Structured data Low
1B camera phones
1990’s 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s
Media Wide Area Imagery Digital Marketing Enterprise Video
Source:
IBM Market Insights
based on composite
72 video 100’s TB per day 12% of video views Used by 1/3 of sources
hrs/minute enterprises
© 2013 IBM Corporation
22. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
After processing this data the expectation is that per year between 300 and 1500 Petabytes of data need to be
stored. In comparison, the approximately 15 Petabytes*** produced by the Large Hadron Collider at CERN per
22 year of operation is approximately 10 to 100 times less than the envisioned capacity of SKA. © 2013 IBM Corporation
23. An Exabyte: What is it?
Exa 1’000’000’000’000’000’000 Books 1/3 *) 20’000 years full HDTV **)
Earth – Sun.
1018 ~ 1 billion years
Books around
Peta 1’000’000’000’000’000 Earth Equator 20 years full HDTV
1015 ~ 1 million years
Data Scale (log)
Library of Congress
Tera 1’000’000’000’000 Large Libary
(50 Km of One week full HDTV
1012 books)
~ 1000 year
Giga 1’000’000’000 Small Library
10 minutes full HDTV
109 (50 Meters of
books)
~ 1 year
Universe Lifetime (years)
Mega Decent Book
1’000’000
(5cm)
106 8 hours
Kilo 1’000 Half page
103 half-a-minute
Raw data rate: 14 Exabytes / day.
*) = 140 books per human on earth. **) ~ 2 minutes of HDTV per human on earth.
24. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
De la programmation des systèmes à l’apprentissage
Cognitive Computing
“Synapse” devices
Compute+
Natural
Language+
Deep Q&A
Analytics Computers
BIG/Fast
Data + analytics
(zettabytes +
milli / microseconds
Big Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
Massive parallelism
Flexible system
optimization
Workload
Optimized
Systems Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
Photonics
1B Transistors DNA Transistor
1T Devices
Nano
Devices
Power7 chip
24 © 2013 IBM Corporation
25. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Les évolutions majeures du traitement de l’information
Cognitive
Systems Era
Programmable
Systems Era
Tabulating
Systems Era
© 2013 IBM Corporation
26. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Cognitive Computing
Complex Reasoning and Interaction Extends Human Cognition
Finance
Enhance decision support
Healthcare
Surface best protocols
Legal
Suggest defense/prosecution
arguments
Telemarketing
Next generation – persuasive –
call center
© 2013 IBM Corporation
27. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Des synergies avec la recherche IBM
Joint Development
Agreements
First-of-a-Kind
(FOAK)
Innovation Discovery IBM Research
Services
Industry
Solutions Lab
Workshops
GTO
Days Months to ~1 Year Multi-year
© 2013 IBM Corporation
28. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Improved Personalized Cleaner Cognitive
Medical Diagnosis Medicine Transportation Systems
& Treatment
© 2013 IBM Corporation
29. Cercle Innovation IBM – Ile de Bendor – 22 Mars
Claude Riousset, Executive Architect - Systems & Technology Group
When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it
happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened.”
John M. Richardson, Jr., American academic and author
© 2013 IBM Corporation