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Kdn Report
1. BABSON
COLLEGE FUND
Rating: BUY Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
Price Target: $30.85 Industry: Specialty Bearings
FY06(A) FY07(A) 1Q08(A) 2Q08(A) 3Q08(A) 4Q08(E) FY08(E) FY09(E)
Close 19-Nov-2008
Sales (mm) 403,992 451,382 123,284 139,905 126,803 136,102 526,094 575,005
Price $24.89
Rev. Growth 13.9% 11.7% 15.3% 23.4% 18.1% 10.0% 16.6% 9.3%
Shares Outstanding (mm) 34 EBITDA Margin 28.7% 29.2% 25.7% 26.9% 23.9% 24.0% 25.1% 23.9%
Market Cap (mm) $900 ROA 8.2% 8.5% 8.9% 8.7%
Source: Capital IQ ROE 14.0% 13.8% 10.0% 9.9%
Consensus EPS $ 2.17 $ 2.41 $ 0.52 $ 0.63 $ 0.50 $ 0.53 $ 2.20 $ 2.11
BCF Est. EPS $ 2.17 $ 2.41 $ 0.52 $ 0.63 $ 0.50 $ 0.52 $ 2.18 $ 2.17
Price/Earnings 11.5X 10.3X 10.5X 10.4X 10.6X 11.4X 11.4X 11.5X
Basic Information
Price/Sales 2.1X 1.9X 1.8X 1.7X 1.7X 1.6X 1.6X 1.5X
Beta 1.4 Price/Book 2.0X 1.8X 1.2X 1.1X
FY End: Dec 31
Dividend Yield 2.8%
Diluted EPS (ttm) $2.36
Investment Thesis
Long Term EPS Growth 15%
Kaydon is a major player in the rapidly growing wind power generation
Cash per share $7.69
market; however, the stock is currently not illustrating any of that business’s
LT Debt to Total Capital 0%
% of S&P 500 0% potential upside. We believe the company’s end markets are more stable
% of Benchmark (IYJ) 0.07% than what is currently being discounted by the market. Moreover, Kaydon’s
Book Value per share $21.25
lack of debt and almost $8 per share in cash on the balance sheet represent
ttm as of Sept. 2008
the possibility of substantial short-term catalysts.
Source: Capital IQ, Northfield
Investment Outlook and Valuation
Company Overview
We rate KDN a BUY. Shares currently trade at about 4.7X trailing EV/EBITDA
Kaydon is a designer and
which marks a new valuation trough for KDN; it had bottomed out in the
manufacturer of custom-
last two recessions at slightly lower than 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA. Our price
engineered, performance-critical
target of $30.85 represents about 6.0X 2008 EV/EBITDA. Even though
products serving many different
customers. Its three main Kaydon is caught in a cyclical downturn, it should trade no lower than past
segments produce friction control
lows given its presence in the wind market which was not as large of a
products, such as specialty
percentage of its business in the past.
bearings; velocity control products,
such as industrial shock absorbers;
Risks to Outlook
and sealing products, such as
engine rings. Disappearance of Federal Funds – a strong driver of wind capacity
production is the Production Tax Credit (PTC) which is authorized by
Source: Capital IQ
Congress. Should this credit disappear, future wind capacity, and KDN, will
be harmed.
Analysts
Acquisition Risk – Kaydon recently made its largest acquisition in the last
Eric S. Crawley
seven years and is poised to make another large one. If the company is
unable to assimilate acquisitions efficiently, or spends its money unwisely,
Kaydon’s returns could be smaller in the future.
BCF - KDN 1/20
11/18/08
2. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
RECENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Kaydon does not give formal guidance so the few analysts that cover the stock, about seven, have a hard time
predicting how the company will perform on a quarter-to-quarter basis. For example, on the past earnings
release, KDN missed the street by about $0.10 and shares soared more than 30% over the next week. The habit
of the Street and its treatment of KDN is characterized by ratcheting up estimates as the company beats, and
then cutting them sharply should the company disappoint. This is happening currently, as 2008 earnings
estimates had gone from about $3 to about $2 as the year has progressed, creating a lower hurdle.
Outside of that, Kaydon has been posting relatively solid numbers amid an increasingly weakening environment.
The company recorded about a 13% organic increase in sales for the quarter, though the 2007 comp was an easy
one. Still, anything positive in today’s economic backdrop is encouraging. The reason why net income has been
relatively stable is the company’s exposure to the wind power generation market. Sales to this industry are
expected to be about $90 million in 2008, up from about $32.8 million in 2007. They are expected to reach $140
million in 2009. These revenues, about 20% of total, are so far offsetting the company’s weaker end markets.
One drastic change throughout the past few quarters is the company’s decrease in interest income from over $4
million last year, to about $1.5 million this year in each quarter. This is mainly due to the effective interest rate
on their cash at 2.2%, down from over 5% last year. Though this decrease in interest income depressed earnings
by about $0.06 from last quarter, it is positive to see the company is not chasing unsafe yields. Cash currently
represents about $7.69 per share on the balance sheet and it is doubtful the company will remain content with
earning 2.2% on it for long. Kaydon’s acquisition strategy has been to minimize debt, accumulate cash, and then
buy something struggling. Kaydon now has no debt, plenty of cash, and there are struggling companies aplenty.
Capital expenditures appear to be a tailwind for cash generation going forward. The winning servants of the
wind power generation market will not be technology leaders. Especially in windmills, the technology has been
around for quite some time. The winners will therefore have the capacity to serve the growth. Kaydon has
ramped up capital expenditures over the past three years from $12 to $70 million in order to create capacity.
The company has signaled that this is coming to an end, and capex could trail down to maintenance levels of
about $20 to $30 million over the next couple years. Certainly, an extra $50 million annually would be
beneficial.
Finally, the company completed the redemption of the remainder of its long-term debt on September 21, 2008.
Kaydon had issued $200 million of contingent-convertible bonds due 2023. All notes were converted to about
6.8 million shares. However, these shares were already included in the company’s diluted share count, so no
assumptions need to be changed going forward about the diluted share count.
BCF - KDN 2/20
11/18/08
3. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
YTD KDN price performance
Source: BigCharts.com
One year return of KDN vs. iShares Dow Jones US INDUSTRIAL ETF (IYJ), and S&P 500
Source: BigCharts.com
BCF - KDN 3/20
11/18/08
4. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AND VALUATION
Cyclical Business
The company’s main products are specialized bearings. This is a highly cyclical business. Earnings compressed in
both the early 90’s and 00’s, and are expected to contract again in 2008 and 2009. This time around, however,
they are estimated to be buffeted by demand for the company’s wind related products, mainly large diameter
bearings. The wind power generation industry will be explained below in greater detail, but it is driven by
government subsidies. Another end market, defense and aerospace, is also deemed relatively stable through
the cycles as it is mainly paid for by the government as well. These markets represent about 40% of Kaydon’s
revenue footprint. The US government is certainly not infinitely rich, but it has deeper pockets than many of
Kaydon’s competitors’ other end markets, such as automotive and commercial aerospace.
Short-term Catalysts
Kaydon’s recommendation does not hinge on an acquisition it will make, but it is useful to note that the
company’s powder keg is full and primed. Kaydon’s largest acquisition to date was Ace Controls in 2001 for
$70.6 million when Kaydon had no debt and the industry was in recession. We currently find ourselves in the
same situation and KDN now has double the cash on its balance sheet as well.
Valuation
Kaydon is valued mainly on an EV/EBITDA basis. This is logical as the company’s production is highly capital
intensive, and there is a fair amount of non-cash charges like depreciation each year that skew the true measure
of Kaydon’s operations. 2008 depreciation is expected to be about $22 million, almost 25% of CFO.
BCF - KDN 4/20
11/18/08
5. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
RISKS TO INVESTMENT
The future is not automatically bright for
Kaydon, however. There are a few risks that
could seriously compromise the investment
thesis. They include:
Disappearance of Federal Funds – A strong
motivation to invest in wind power is a
current power generation subsidy that the
government offers under the Production Tax
Credit (PTC). The PTC was enacted in 1992
and has since gone through many short-term
extensions. It was most recently extended in
October 2008 by Congress and allows for a
2.1c income tax credit per kilowatt hour
generated by a wind turbine. The total
earmark in 2007 was $2.5 - $3 billion. Although the PTC has only been allowed to lapse for three individual
years since inception in 1992, the year after each lapse proved detrimental for the wind power generation
industry and its suppliers. The PTC is up for expiration again December 31, 2009 and there is no guarantee is will
be extended.
Acquisition Risk – Although Kaydon can generate organic growth, it also relies on acquisitions to drive the top
line. The company has made a series of bolt-on acquisitions over time and once in a while it levers up to
purchase something large. Below is a history of the company’s acquisitions with price paid in millions.
Kaydon Corp
Acquisitions
2007 Avon Bearings 55.0 10/28/07 Wide-dimameter bearings
2005 Purafil 42.7 1/7/05 Filtration company
2002 Printed Circuit 4.4 5/17/02 Printed circuit boards and fexible printed tapes
2001 ACE Controls 70.6 3/1/01 Linear decleration products
2000 Tridan Group 46.6 8/28/00 Specialty production AC equipment; Alloy manufacturer
1999 Focal Technologies 8.8 Q4'99 Fiber-optic and fluid transmission devices
Filterdyne 5.0 Q4'99 Filtration and vacuum distillation systems
1997 Gold Star 4.5 3/11/97 Custom designed cylinders
Great Bend 22.9 5/29/97 Custom designed cylinders
1996 Benton Harbor 10.7 2/1/96 Hydraulic cylinders and fluid power components
1995 Seabee 22.7 8/31/95 Large hydraulic cylinders and alloy steel castings
1994 Industrial Tectonics 7.3 1/28/94 Specialty balls
Most acquisitions do not meet the buyer’s expectations, and as Kaydon grows, it must make more small
acquisitions or considerably larger ones, in order to move the dial. Another risk is the double-edged nature of
Kaydon’s success. It has the highest gross margin of its peers. It prides itself with entering only businesses
where others find it too difficult to operate. As time goes by and the company grows, these opportunities
appear less frequently, and the risk rises that Kaydon will acquire something unwise.
BCF - KDN 5/20
11/18/08
6. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Kaydon is a designer and manufacturer of custom-
engineered, performance-critical products serving many
different customers. About 70% of sales are domestic. Its
three main segments produce friction control products,
velocity control products, and sealing products.
Friction Control Products – These are the most identifiable
products with Kaydon. They include specialty bearings for
many end markets, and include products like anti-friction
bearings, split roller bearings, and specialty balls.
Velocity Control Products – Products include industrial shock
absorbers (like what lies at the end of a metro line), safety
shock absorbers, gas springs, and rotary dampers.
Sealing Products – These are mostly for the aerospace and defense markets and include products like standard
ring and seal products.
Other businesses include gas filtration systems, machine tool components, dies, presses, and benders.
Kaydon benefits from a diverse customer base in many different industries. The smaller end markets, along with
the catch-all, General Industrial, have been the most negatively affected by the current economic downturn
while the Defense and Power Generation markets have been the most stable. The defense market is actually
where Kaydon initially made a name for itself as a mission-critical, custom manufacturer. In 1941 it began
making the bearing housings for different rotating deck guns for the US Navy. Since then it has expanded into
providing bearings for tank turrets and helicopters, but the largest piece of its current defense business is for the
HMMWV and its successor, the MRAP.
This is notable because the Mine Resistant Ambush
Protected (MRAP) vehicle has been instrumental in saving
US soldiers’ lives in Iraq and in Afghanistan. In June 2008,
USA Today noted that roadside bomb attacks and
fatalities were down almost 90%, partially due to the
added protection of the MRAP on patrol instead of the
traditional or up-armored Humvee. Given this vehicle’s
success in saving lives, it is unlikely the current orders will
be trimmed due to potential military spending cutbacks.
BCF - KDN 6/20
11/18/08
7. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND COMPETITION
The ball bearing was invented by Leonardo da Vinci and throughout time has become something of a
commodity. Kaydon has found success, however, not in what it makes, but rather where the company applies it.
In short, Kaydon does not like competition. It would rather fill all the orders of a smaller run than just a few of a
larger run.
There are two ways to compete with a commodity product: be the low-price, high-volume player, or the high-
price, custom player. Kaydon has found itself in the latter niche. For example, two larger companies, SKR ($3
billion market cap) and Timkin ($1 billion market cap) have much lower EBITDA margins. SKR returns 15.5% and
Timkin returns 14%. This compares to Kaydon’s 24% EBITDA margin in Q3’08. A major driver of this is that the
two larger companies compete heavily in the automotive and commercial aerospace markets which are more
highly competitive. Kaydon has been able to string together enough niche applications that it can generate
strong cash flow and returns on a larger basis.
In this sense, the wind power generation market is
a logical fit for Kaydon. There is no standard size
for wind turbines, and it becomes more difficult to
build stable bearings in larger applications. KDN’s
last acquisition, Avon, specializes in this
application, and can build bearings 240 inches in
diameter. This fits the custom-engineered part of
Kaydon’s strategy. Wind turbines are also mission
critical. The larger towers are 80 meters tall and
the last thing an owner of a wind farm needs is to
be clambering up them in order to un-jam a rotor.
Less friction equals more revolutions which equals
more energy production. These parts cannot fail.
20% by 2030
There is a goal floating around Congress that the country should be producing 20% of its energy needs via
renewable power by 2030. The PTC was enacted to encourage this goal. An interesting feature of this mandate
is that it is state controlled, not federal. So some states like Oregon have a target of 25%, and Massachusetts
has set a target of 4%. According to Dr. James Walker, the current president of the American Wind Energy
Association, only about 1.5% of our nation’s energy needs are generated by wind power, but capacity is growing
quickly. There is a current wind installed base of 18k megawatts. Four years ago there was 6k.
At the moment, a kilowatt of wind power is the cheapest type of alternative energy to create. Hydro is
hampered by location, and solar is coming down in price quickly, but there still needs to be technological
advances before it is more competitive than wind power.
BCF - KDN 7/20
11/18/08
8. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
VALUATION
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Kaydon Discounted Cash Flow
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Operating Income 110,301 113,699 131,310 152,727 189,611 233,828
Income Tax Expense 38,350 39,795 45,959 53,454 66,364 81,840
EBIAT 71,951 73,904 85,352 99,273 123,247 151,988
Depreciation 22,000 24,000 26,000 27,300 28,665 30,098
Capex 70,000 40,000 30,000 30,600 31,212 31,836
Change in WC 3,078 14,582 10,649 9,584 9,105 9,105
FCF to Enterprise 20,873 43,322 70,703 86,389 111,595 141,145
Terminal Value 1,425,290
FCF to Enterprise 20,873 43,322 70,703 86,389 111,595 1,566,436
NPV 958,082
Less Debt 0
Shareholders' Equity 958,082
Shares Out 34,165
$28.04
Value per Share
Assumptions
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Op. Inc. Growth 3.08% 15.49% 16.31% 24.15% 23.32%
Tax Rate 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00%
Net Income 4.11% 15.49% 16.31% 24.15% 23.32%
Depreciation 9.09% 8.33% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Capex -42.86% -25.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Change in WC 373.76% -26.97% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00%
g 3.00%
Beta 1.4
Risk Free Rate 3.40%
Market Risk Premium 7.00%
Cost of Capital 13.20%
The discounted cash flow yields a price of $28.04. The driving assumptions behind this model are that wind
revenues will continue to be strong and offset the drop off of Kaydon’s other businesses until they pick up again
a couple years out. Also, capital expenditures are set to drop off to near maintenance levels over the next five
years as management has prescribed. Note that KDN’s cost of capital, 13.2% is relatively high due to the fact
that it has no debt. None of the aforementioned catalysts are modeled in, so this could be considered a base
case scenario. If the company decided to make an acquisition, buy back stock, or lever up for an intelligent
reason, the implied share price could be considerably higher.
BCF - KDN 8/20
11/18/08
9. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
Peer Group Analysis
DuPont Drivers 11/19/2008
Kaydon Comparison of Peers
Return Asset Leverage LTM LTM
Market LTM
Company Cap GM Debt/Cap on Sales Turnover A/E ROA ROE EV/EBITDA P/E
Emerson Electric (EMR) 25,404 36.8% 33.1% 16.5% 1.2X 2.31 19.8% 45.7% 5.9X 10.5X
Franklin Electric (FELE) 737 30.1% 33.3% 10.9% 1.1X 1.85 12.0% 22.2% 8.3X 16.1X
Kennametal (KMT) 1,220 33.8% 24.5% 11.1% 1.0X 1.83 11.1% 20.3% 4.1X 7.7X
RBC Bearings (ROLL) 412 33.6% 17.4% 18.6% 1.1X 1.45 20.5% 29.7% 5.8X 9.8X
Mean 6,943 33.6% 27.1% 14.3% 1.1X 1.86 15.8% 29.5% 6.0X 11.0X
Kaydon (KDN) 900 37.8% 0.0% 22.4% 0.7X 1.13 15.7% 17.7% 4.7X 11.9X
Implied Valuation
Current Price $25.00
Forward EBITDA 137,699
Current EV / EBITDA 4.7X
Mean Multiple 6.0X
Forward EBITDA 137,699
Implied Price $31.75
The above peer group was chosen for the following reasons. Emerson Electric is much larger than Kaydon, but it
is known as a premiere engineered products company and at a level where Kaydon could reach some day.
Franklin Electric manufactures mission critical, submersible pumps. Kennametal manufactures customized tools
and dies. RBC is in the bearings market, but in the more mainstream markets.
The implied value of Kaydon from its peers is $31.75. We feel KDN should be valued at least at 6.0X EV/EBITDA
because KDN has higher gross and operating margins than its peers, generates a comparable return on assets,
and does this with no debt. Yet, the company trades at a discount.
BCF - KDN 9/20
11/18/08
10. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
Historical Multiple Analysis
Kaydon is valued primarily on an
EV/EBITDA basis. To the right is a graph
of the stock’s historical multiple
performance. The graph demonstrates
the effect of three recessions on the
company’s multiple: around 1993, 2000,
and 2008. EV/EBITDA appears to bottom
out at just below 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA.
At $24.89, shares trade at about 4.7X
trailing EV/EBITDA which represents a new multiple trough. This is reasonable as today’s economic environment
seems more uncertain than in the early 90’s or even after September 11th. The past does not always predict the
future, but this graph states that shares of KDN are trading at about where they should be when the economy is
in a recession. We believe, however, it does not take into account the potential upside from wind revenues
going forward.
Implied Valuation
Each of the three valuations contains certain strengths and weaknesses. To derive a final price target, we feel it
prudent to take a weighted average of each output. Given this method, we propose a 12-month price target of
$30.85. This represents about 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA. Since
Price Target
Valuation Method Price Weight Kaydon generates stable cash flow, even in recessionary
DCF 28.04 40%
environments, we thought it appropriate to weight the DCF the
Comp Co 31.75 30%
heaviest. However, it does not take into account potential
Historical Multiple 33.68 30%
Price Target 30.85
catalysts of making an acquisition or buying back stocks. The
comparison of peers is valuable, but the definition of a niche business is one that is not mainstream, and since
Kaydon is a collection of them, finding the correct companies for comparison is challenging. We feel as though
Kaydon’s current valuation relative to its history represents a bargain, but today’s economic environment
appears more uncertain, so present and future recessions may not necessarily mirror past economic
contractions. Therefore, we feel the above blend is a reasonable combination of valuation methodologies.
BCF - KDN 10/20
11/18/08
11. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
WALL STREET ANALYST RECOMMENDATION TRENDS
Management does not give formal guidance, so Kaydon’s analyst core (about seven) tends to raise expectations
until the company misses, then sharply reel them in. This situation is playing out now.
The bar graph above illustrates Kaydon beating expectations throughout the year until it sorely missed this past
quarter. Analysts have moved swiftly to take in expectations for about $3 EPS in 2009 to about $2. Analysts
remain generally bullish, however.
BCF - KDN 11/20
11/18/08
12. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
MANAGEMENT AND MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS
Management Bios
The current President and CEO of Kaydon is James O’Leary (45). He was appointed by the Board in March of
2007 and has been a director of the company since 2005. Before Kaydon, he was the CFO of Beazer, a top-10
public homebuilder in the southeastern US from 2002 – 2005. His prior work experience is in the industrial
space. He has been the champion of ramping up capacity for the wind market over the past two years.
O’Leary took over for Brian Campbell who retired from Kaydon after 10 years at the helm at 66. He was the
company’s Chairman, CEO, and CFO. Some have speculated that he was forced out because he did not want to
give up his role as CFO. 66 does not seem that old for someone so involved in the company, but it is not
necessarily a young ago to retire either. In any case, his departure was unexpected and speculation because of
this is natural.
We believe Kaydon’s current management team to be solid but nothing groundbreaking. O’Leary does not have
a magnificent track record, but that does not mean he cannot create one at Kaydon.
Major Shareholders
BCF - KDN 12/20
11/18/08
13. BABSON
Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
COLLEGE FUND
Analyst Certification
The analysts on the cover of this report certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect
their personal views about all the subject matter inside and that all assumptions were made with the highest
level of due diligence possible.
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings
The Babson College Fund uses the following rating system:
Buy – The stock is expected to outperform its sector over the next 12 months by more than 10%.
Hold – The stock is expected to perform no more or less than 10% of it sector over the next 12 months.
Sell – The stock is expected to underperform its sector over the next 12 months by more than 10%.
The sector benchmark is IYJ for the Industrial sector.
The Babson College Fund Portfolio Managers equity research rating distribution as of 11/18/08:
Buy Hold Sell
100% 0% 0%
References
1. BCF Estimates
2. Company website – www.kaydon.com
3. Company SEC filings
4. Earnings calls
5. Thomson ONE Banker
6. Capital IQ
7. BigCharts.com
8. Northfield
BCF - KDN 13/20
11/18/08