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BABSON
               COLLEGE FUND


Rating:               BUY                  Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
Price Target:         $30.85               Industry: Specialty Bearings

                                                            FY06(A)     FY07(A)     1Q08(A)     2Q08(A)     3Q08(A)     4Q08(E)     FY08(E)     FY09(E)
Close                19-Nov-2008
                                           Sales (mm)       403,992     451,382     123,284     139,905     126,803     136,102     526,094     575,005
Price                     $24.89
                                           Rev. Growth      13.9%       11.7%       15.3%       23.4%       18.1%       10.0%       16.6%           9.3%
Shares Outstanding (mm)       34           EBITDA Margin    28.7%       29.2%       25.7%       26.9%       23.9%       24.0%       25.1%       23.9%
Market Cap (mm)             $900           ROA                  8.2%        8.5%                                                        8.9%        8.7%
Source: Capital IQ                         ROE              14.0%       13.8%                                                       10.0%           9.9%
                                           Consensus EPS    $    2.17   $    2.41   $    0.52   $    0.63   $    0.50   $    0.53   $    2.20   $    2.11
                                           BCF Est. EPS     $    2.17   $    2.41   $    0.52   $    0.63   $    0.50   $    0.52   $    2.18   $    2.17
                                           Price/Earnings    11.5X       10.3X       10.5X       10.4X       10.6X       11.4X       11.4X       11.5X
Basic Information
                                           Price/Sales          2.1X        1.9X        1.8X        1.7X        1.7X        1.6X        1.6X        1.5X
Beta                                 1.4   Price/Book           2.0X        1.8X                                                        1.2X        1.1X
                                           FY End: Dec 31
Dividend Yield                     2.8%
Diluted EPS (ttm)                 $2.36
                                           Investment Thesis
Long Term EPS Growth                15%
                                           Kaydon is a major player in the rapidly growing wind power generation
Cash per share                    $7.69
                                           market; however, the stock is currently not illustrating any of that business’s
LT Debt to Total Capital             0%
% of S&P 500                         0%    potential upside. We believe the company’s end markets are more stable
% of Benchmark (IYJ)              0.07%    than what is currently being discounted by the market. Moreover, Kaydon’s
Book Value per share             $21.25
                                           lack of debt and almost $8 per share in cash on the balance sheet represent
ttm as of Sept. 2008
                                           the possibility of substantial short-term catalysts.
Source: Capital IQ, Northfield


                                           Investment Outlook and Valuation
Company Overview
                                           We rate KDN a BUY. Shares currently trade at about 4.7X trailing EV/EBITDA
Kaydon is a designer and
                                           which marks a new valuation trough for KDN; it had bottomed out in the
manufacturer of custom-
                                           last two recessions at slightly lower than 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA. Our price
engineered, performance-critical
                                           target of $30.85 represents about 6.0X 2008 EV/EBITDA. Even though
products serving many different
customers. Its three main                  Kaydon is caught in a cyclical downturn, it should trade no lower than past
segments produce friction control
                                           lows given its presence in the wind market which was not as large of a
products, such as specialty
                                           percentage of its business in the past.
bearings; velocity control products,
such as industrial shock absorbers;
                                           Risks to Outlook
and sealing products, such as
engine rings.                              Disappearance of Federal Funds – a strong driver of wind capacity
                                           production is the Production Tax Credit (PTC) which is authorized by
Source: Capital IQ
                                           Congress. Should this credit disappear, future wind capacity, and KDN, will
                                           be harmed.
Analysts
                                           Acquisition Risk – Kaydon recently made its largest acquisition in the last
Eric S. Crawley
                                           seven years and is poised to make another large one. If the company is
                                           unable to assimilate acquisitions efficiently, or spends its money unwisely,
                                           Kaydon’s returns could be smaller in the future.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                                                            1/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                              Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


RECENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Kaydon does not give formal guidance so the few analysts that cover the stock, about seven, have a hard time
predicting how the company will perform on a quarter-to-quarter basis. For example, on the past earnings
release, KDN missed the street by about $0.10 and shares soared more than 30% over the next week. The habit
of the Street and its treatment of KDN is characterized by ratcheting up estimates as the company beats, and
then cutting them sharply should the company disappoint. This is happening currently, as 2008 earnings
estimates had gone from about $3 to about $2 as the year has progressed, creating a lower hurdle.

Outside of that, Kaydon has been posting relatively solid numbers amid an increasingly weakening environment.
The company recorded about a 13% organic increase in sales for the quarter, though the 2007 comp was an easy
one. Still, anything positive in today’s economic backdrop is encouraging. The reason why net income has been
relatively stable is the company’s exposure to the wind power generation market. Sales to this industry are
expected to be about $90 million in 2008, up from about $32.8 million in 2007. They are expected to reach $140
million in 2009. These revenues, about 20% of total, are so far offsetting the company’s weaker end markets.

One drastic change throughout the past few quarters is the company’s decrease in interest income from over $4
million last year, to about $1.5 million this year in each quarter. This is mainly due to the effective interest rate
on their cash at 2.2%, down from over 5% last year. Though this decrease in interest income depressed earnings
by about $0.06 from last quarter, it is positive to see the company is not chasing unsafe yields. Cash currently
represents about $7.69 per share on the balance sheet and it is doubtful the company will remain content with
earning 2.2% on it for long. Kaydon’s acquisition strategy has been to minimize debt, accumulate cash, and then
buy something struggling. Kaydon now has no debt, plenty of cash, and there are struggling companies aplenty.

Capital expenditures appear to be a tailwind for cash generation going forward. The winning servants of the
wind power generation market will not be technology leaders. Especially in windmills, the technology has been
around for quite some time. The winners will therefore have the capacity to serve the growth. Kaydon has
ramped up capital expenditures over the past three years from $12 to $70 million in order to create capacity.
The company has signaled that this is coming to an end, and capex could trail down to maintenance levels of
about $20 to $30 million over the next couple years. Certainly, an extra $50 million annually would be
beneficial.

Finally, the company completed the redemption of the remainder of its long-term debt on September 21, 2008.
Kaydon had issued $200 million of contingent-convertible bonds due 2023. All notes were converted to about
6.8 million shares. However, these shares were already included in the company’s diluted share count, so no
assumptions need to be changed going forward about the diluted share count.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                       2/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                    Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


YTD KDN price performance




Source: BigCharts.com




One year return of KDN vs. iShares Dow Jones US INDUSTRIAL ETF (IYJ), and S&P 500




Source: BigCharts.com




BCF - KDN                                                                           3/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                          Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AND VALUATION

Cyclical Business

The company’s main products are specialized bearings. This is a highly cyclical business. Earnings compressed in
both the early 90’s and 00’s, and are expected to contract again in 2008 and 2009. This time around, however,
they are estimated to be buffeted by demand for the company’s wind related products, mainly large diameter
bearings. The wind power generation industry will be explained below in greater detail, but it is driven by
government subsidies. Another end market, defense and aerospace, is also deemed relatively stable through
the cycles as it is mainly paid for by the government as well. These markets represent about 40% of Kaydon’s
revenue footprint. The US government is certainly not infinitely rich, but it has deeper pockets than many of
Kaydon’s competitors’ other end markets, such as automotive and commercial aerospace.

Short-term Catalysts

Kaydon’s recommendation does not hinge on an acquisition it will make, but it is useful to note that the
company’s powder keg is full and primed. Kaydon’s largest acquisition to date was Ace Controls in 2001 for
$70.6 million when Kaydon had no debt and the industry was in recession. We currently find ourselves in the
same situation and KDN now has double the cash on its balance sheet as well.

Valuation

Kaydon is valued mainly on an EV/EBITDA basis. This is logical as the company’s production is highly capital
intensive, and there is a fair amount of non-cash charges like depreciation each year that skew the true measure
of Kaydon’s operations. 2008 depreciation is expected to be about $22 million, almost 25% of CFO.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                  4/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                   Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


RISKS TO INVESTMENT

The future is not automatically bright for
Kaydon, however. There are a few risks that
could seriously compromise the investment
thesis. They include:

Disappearance of Federal Funds – A strong
motivation to invest in wind power is a
current power generation subsidy that the
government offers under the Production Tax
Credit (PTC). The PTC was enacted in 1992
and has since gone through many short-term
extensions. It was most recently extended in
October 2008 by Congress and allows for a
2.1c income tax credit per kilowatt hour
generated by a wind turbine. The total
earmark in 2007 was $2.5 - $3 billion. Although the PTC has only been allowed to lapse for three individual
years since inception in 1992, the year after each lapse proved detrimental for the wind power generation
industry and its suppliers. The PTC is up for expiration again December 31, 2009 and there is no guarantee is will
be extended.

Acquisition Risk – Although Kaydon can generate organic growth, it also relies on acquisitions to drive the top
line. The company has made a series of bolt-on acquisitions over time and once in a while it levers up to
purchase something large. Below is a history of the company’s acquisitions with price paid in millions.

Kaydon Corp
Acquisitions

       2007    Avon Bearings          55.0   10/28/07   Wide-dimameter bearings
       2005    Purafil                42.7     1/7/05   Filtration company
       2002    Printed Circuit         4.4    5/17/02   Printed circuit boards and fexible printed tapes
       2001    ACE Controls           70.6     3/1/01   Linear decleration products
       2000    Tridan Group           46.6    8/28/00   Specialty production AC equipment; Alloy manufacturer
       1999    Focal Technologies      8.8      Q4'99   Fiber-optic and fluid transmission devices
               Filterdyne              5.0      Q4'99   Filtration and vacuum distillation systems
       1997    Gold Star               4.5    3/11/97   Custom designed cylinders
               Great Bend             22.9    5/29/97   Custom designed cylinders
       1996    Benton Harbor          10.7     2/1/96   Hydraulic cylinders and fluid power components
       1995    Seabee                 22.7    8/31/95   Large hydraulic cylinders and alloy steel castings
       1994    Industrial Tectonics    7.3    1/28/94   Specialty balls


Most acquisitions do not meet the buyer’s expectations, and as Kaydon grows, it must make more small
acquisitions or considerably larger ones, in order to move the dial. Another risk is the double-edged nature of
Kaydon’s success. It has the highest gross margin of its peers. It prides itself with entering only businesses
where others find it too difficult to operate. As time goes by and the company grows, these opportunities
appear less frequently, and the risk rises that Kaydon will acquire something unwise.
BCF - KDN                                                                                                        5/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                               Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


BUSINESS DESCRIPTION

Kaydon is a designer and manufacturer of custom-
engineered, performance-critical products serving many
different customers. About 70% of sales are domestic. Its
three main segments produce friction control products,
velocity control products, and sealing products.

Friction Control Products – These are the most identifiable
products with Kaydon. They include specialty bearings for
many end markets, and include products like anti-friction
bearings, split roller bearings, and specialty balls.

Velocity Control Products – Products include industrial shock
absorbers (like what lies at the end of a metro line), safety
shock absorbers, gas springs, and rotary dampers.

Sealing Products – These are mostly for the aerospace and defense markets and include products like standard
ring and seal products.

Other businesses include gas filtration systems, machine tool components, dies, presses, and benders.

Kaydon benefits from a diverse customer base in many different industries. The smaller end markets, along with
the catch-all, General Industrial, have been the most negatively affected by the current economic downturn
while the Defense and Power Generation markets have been the most stable. The defense market is actually
where Kaydon initially made a name for itself as a mission-critical, custom manufacturer. In 1941 it began
making the bearing housings for different rotating deck guns for the US Navy. Since then it has expanded into
providing bearings for tank turrets and helicopters, but the largest piece of its current defense business is for the
HMMWV and its successor, the MRAP.

                                                        This is notable because the Mine Resistant Ambush
                                                        Protected (MRAP) vehicle has been instrumental in saving
                                                        US soldiers’ lives in Iraq and in Afghanistan. In June 2008,
                                                        USA Today noted that roadside bomb attacks and
                                                        fatalities were down almost 90%, partially due to the
                                                        added protection of the MRAP on patrol instead of the
                                                        traditional or up-armored Humvee. Given this vehicle’s
                                                        success in saving lives, it is unlikely the current orders will
                                                        be trimmed due to potential military spending cutbacks.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                         6/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                              Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND COMPETITION

The ball bearing was invented by Leonardo da Vinci and throughout time has become something of a
commodity. Kaydon has found success, however, not in what it makes, but rather where the company applies it.
In short, Kaydon does not like competition. It would rather fill all the orders of a smaller run than just a few of a
larger run.

There are two ways to compete with a commodity product: be the low-price, high-volume player, or the high-
price, custom player. Kaydon has found itself in the latter niche. For example, two larger companies, SKR ($3
billion market cap) and Timkin ($1 billion market cap) have much lower EBITDA margins. SKR returns 15.5% and
Timkin returns 14%. This compares to Kaydon’s 24% EBITDA margin in Q3’08. A major driver of this is that the
two larger companies compete heavily in the automotive and commercial aerospace markets which are more
highly competitive. Kaydon has been able to string together enough niche applications that it can generate
strong cash flow and returns on a larger basis.

In this sense, the wind power generation market is
a logical fit for Kaydon. There is no standard size
for wind turbines, and it becomes more difficult to
build stable bearings in larger applications. KDN’s
last acquisition, Avon, specializes in this
application, and can build bearings 240 inches in
diameter. This fits the custom-engineered part of
Kaydon’s strategy. Wind turbines are also mission
critical. The larger towers are 80 meters tall and
the last thing an owner of a wind farm needs is to
be clambering up them in order to un-jam a rotor.
Less friction equals more revolutions which equals
more energy production. These parts cannot fail.

20% by 2030

There is a goal floating around Congress that the country should be producing 20% of its energy needs via
renewable power by 2030. The PTC was enacted to encourage this goal. An interesting feature of this mandate
is that it is state controlled, not federal. So some states like Oregon have a target of 25%, and Massachusetts
has set a target of 4%. According to Dr. James Walker, the current president of the American Wind Energy
Association, only about 1.5% of our nation’s energy needs are generated by wind power, but capacity is growing
quickly. There is a current wind installed base of 18k megawatts. Four years ago there was 6k.

At the moment, a kilowatt of wind power is the cheapest type of alternative energy to create. Hydro is
hampered by location, and solar is coming down in price quickly, but there still needs to be technological
advances before it is more competitive than wind power.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                       7/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                            Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


VALUATION

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
 Kaydon Discounted Cash Flow
          Year          2008      2009       2010       2011       2012       2013
 Operating Income      110,301    113,699    131,310    152,727    189,611    233,828
 Income Tax Expense     38,350     39,795     45,959     53,454     66,364     81,840
 EBIAT                  71,951     73,904     85,352     99,273    123,247    151,988

 Depreciation            22,000    24,000     26,000     27,300     28,665     30,098
 Capex                   70,000    40,000     30,000     30,600     31,212     31,836
 Change in WC             3,078    14,582     10,649      9,584      9,105      9,105

 FCF to Enterprise       20,873    43,322     70,703     86,389    111,595     141,145
 Terminal Value                                                              1,425,290
 FCF to Enterprise       20,873    43,322     70,703     86,389    111,595   1,566,436

 NPV                    958,082
 Less Debt                    0
 Shareholders' Equity   958,082
 Shares Out              34,165
                         $28.04
 Value per Share



 Assumptions
           Year          2008     2009       2010       2011       2012       2013
 Op. Inc. Growth                   3.08%     15.49%     16.31%     24.15%     23.32%
 Tax Rate                         35.00%     35.00%     35.00%     35.00%     35.00%
 Net Income                        4.11%     15.49%     16.31%     24.15%     23.32%

 Depreciation                       9.09%     8.33%      5.00%      5.00%       5.00%
 Capex                            -42.86%   -25.00%      2.00%      2.00%       2.00%
 Change in WC                     373.76%   -26.97%    -10.00%     -5.00%       0.00%

 g                       3.00%
 Beta                       1.4
 Risk Free Rate          3.40%
 Market Risk Premium     7.00%
 Cost of Capital        13.20%



The discounted cash flow yields a price of $28.04. The driving assumptions behind this model are that wind
revenues will continue to be strong and offset the drop off of Kaydon’s other businesses until they pick up again
a couple years out. Also, capital expenditures are set to drop off to near maintenance levels over the next five
years as management has prescribed. Note that KDN’s cost of capital, 13.2% is relatively high due to the fact
that it has no debt. None of the aforementioned catalysts are modeled in, so this could be considered a base
case scenario. If the company decided to make an acquisition, buy back stock, or lever up for an intelligent
reason, the implied share price could be considerably higher.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                    8/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                         Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
                      COLLEGE FUND


         Peer Group Analysis

                                                                      DuPont Drivers                                           11/19/2008
Kaydon Comparison of Peers
                                                           Return        Asset       Leverage                        LTM          LTM
                           Market      LTM
        Company             Cap        GM       Debt/Cap   on Sales     Turnover      A/E       ROA      ROE      EV/EBITDA       P/E
Emerson Electric (EMR)       25,404    36.8%       33.1%      16.5%         1.2X        2.31     19.8%    45.7%         5.9X       10.5X
Franklin Electric (FELE)        737    30.1%       33.3%      10.9%         1.1X        1.85     12.0%    22.2%         8.3X       16.1X
Kennametal (KMT)              1,220    33.8%       24.5%      11.1%         1.0X        1.83     11.1%    20.3%         4.1X        7.7X
RBC Bearings (ROLL)             412    33.6%       17.4%      18.6%         1.1X        1.45     20.5%    29.7%         5.8X        9.8X
Mean                          6,943    33.6%       27.1%      14.3%         1.1X        1.86     15.8%    29.5%         6.0X       11.0X
Kaydon (KDN)                    900    37.8%        0.0%      22.4%         0.7X        1.13     15.7%    17.7%         4.7X       11.9X




Implied Valuation
Current Price                          $25.00
Forward EBITDA                        137,699
Current EV / EBITDA                      4.7X

Mean Multiple                            6.0X
Forward EBITDA                        137,699
Implied Price                          $31.75



         The above peer group was chosen for the following reasons. Emerson Electric is much larger than Kaydon, but it
         is known as a premiere engineered products company and at a level where Kaydon could reach some day.
         Franklin Electric manufactures mission critical, submersible pumps. Kennametal manufactures customized tools
         and dies. RBC is in the bearings market, but in the more mainstream markets.

         The implied value of Kaydon from its peers is $31.75. We feel KDN should be valued at least at 6.0X EV/EBITDA
         because KDN has higher gross and operating margins than its peers, generates a comparable return on assets,
         and does this with no debt. Yet, the company trades at a discount.




         BCF - KDN                                                                                                         9/20
         11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                             Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


Historical Multiple Analysis

Kaydon is valued primarily on an
EV/EBITDA basis. To the right is a graph
of the stock’s historical multiple
performance. The graph demonstrates
the effect of three recessions on the
company’s multiple: around 1993, 2000,
and 2008. EV/EBITDA appears to bottom
out at just below 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA.
At $24.89, shares trade at about 4.7X
trailing EV/EBITDA which represents a new multiple trough. This is reasonable as today’s economic environment
seems more uncertain than in the early 90’s or even after September 11th. The past does not always predict the
future, but this graph states that shares of KDN are trading at about where they should be when the economy is
in a recession. We believe, however, it does not take into account the potential upside from wind revenues
going forward.



Implied Valuation

Each of the three valuations contains certain strengths and weaknesses. To derive a final price target, we feel it
prudent to take a weighted average of each output. Given this method, we propose a 12-month price target of
                                                $30.85. This represents about 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA. Since
Price Target
Valuation Method          Price      Weight     Kaydon generates stable cash flow, even in recessionary
DCF                       28.04       40%
                                                environments, we thought it appropriate to weight the DCF the
Comp Co                   31.75       30%
                                                heaviest. However, it does not take into account potential
Historical Multiple       33.68       30%
Price Target              30.85
                                                catalysts of making an acquisition or buying back stocks. The
comparison of peers is valuable, but the definition of a niche business is one that is not mainstream, and since
Kaydon is a collection of them, finding the correct companies for comparison is challenging. We feel as though
Kaydon’s current valuation relative to its history represents a bargain, but today’s economic environment
appears more uncertain, so present and future recessions may not necessarily mirror past economic
contractions. Therefore, we feel the above blend is a reasonable combination of valuation methodologies.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                    10/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                           Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


WALL STREET ANALYST RECOMMENDATION TRENDS

Management does not give formal guidance, so Kaydon’s analyst core (about seven) tends to raise expectations
until the company misses, then sharply reel them in. This situation is playing out now.




The bar graph above illustrates Kaydon beating expectations throughout the year until it sorely missed this past
quarter. Analysts have moved swiftly to take in expectations for about $3 EPS in 2009 to about $2. Analysts
remain generally bullish, however.




BCF - KDN                                                                                                  11/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                          Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


MANAGEMENT AND MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS

Management Bios

The current President and CEO of Kaydon is James O’Leary (45). He was appointed by the Board in March of
2007 and has been a director of the company since 2005. Before Kaydon, he was the CFO of Beazer, a top-10
public homebuilder in the southeastern US from 2002 – 2005. His prior work experience is in the industrial
space. He has been the champion of ramping up capacity for the wind market over the past two years.

O’Leary took over for Brian Campbell who retired from Kaydon after 10 years at the helm at 66. He was the
company’s Chairman, CEO, and CFO. Some have speculated that he was forced out because he did not want to
give up his role as CFO. 66 does not seem that old for someone so involved in the company, but it is not
necessarily a young ago to retire either. In any case, his departure was unexpected and speculation because of
this is natural.

We believe Kaydon’s current management team to be solid but nothing groundbreaking. O’Leary does not have
a magnificent track record, but that does not mean he cannot create one at Kaydon.



Major Shareholders




BCF - KDN                                                                                                12/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                               Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


Analyst Certification

The analysts on the cover of this report certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect
their personal views about all the subject matter inside and that all assumptions were made with the highest
level of due diligence possible.

Explanation of Equity Research Ratings

The Babson College Fund uses the following rating system:

        Buy – The stock is expected to outperform its sector over the next 12 months by more than 10%.

        Hold – The stock is expected to perform no more or less than 10% of it sector over the next 12 months.

        Sell – The stock is expected to underperform its sector over the next 12 months by more than 10%.

The sector benchmark is IYJ for the Industrial sector.

The Babson College Fund Portfolio Managers equity research rating distribution as of 11/18/08:

                                                Buy        Hold    Sell

                                                100%       0%      0%




References
1.   BCF Estimates
2.   Company website – www.kaydon.com
3.   Company SEC filings
4.   Earnings calls
5.   Thomson ONE Banker
6.   Capital IQ
7.   BigCharts.com
8.   Northfield




BCF - KDN                                                                                                       13/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                                                             Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
               COLLEGE FUND


APPENDIX - SUPPORTING ANALYSIS

Consolidated Statements of Income
Kaydon Corp
Income Statement
                                2001           2002           2003           2004           2005           2006           2007           2008E          2009E          2010E
Sales                            285,603        279,410        294,092        333,811        354,558        403,992        451,382        526,094        575,005        632,505
COGS                             185,758        184,061        188,508        204,668        215,528        236,566        267,082        332,435        367,986        395,316
                Gross Profit      99,845         95,349        105,584        129,143        139,030        167,426        184,300        193,659        207,019        237,189

SG&A                             54,348         49,493         49,862         63,606         68,854         68,746         73,037         83,357         93,320         105,879
           Operating Income      45,497         45,856         55,722         65,537         70,176         98,680        111,263        110,301        113,699         131,310
                    EBITDA       60,927         59,581         69,588         80,201         86,689        116,106        131,892        132,301        137,699         157,310

Interest expense                  4,968          1,885          6,289          9,589          9,579          9,554          9,552           7,662          6,000          6,000
Interest income                   4,676          2,695          2,493          3,987          8,747         16,253         18,051           6,698          6,000          6,000
             Pretax Income       45,205         46,666         51,926         59,935         69,344        105,379        119,762         109,337        113,699        131,310

Taxes                            16,725         16,380         18,174         21,577         22,814         35,871         42,055          38,350         39,795         45,959
Tax rate                         37.0%          35.1%          35.0%          36.0%          32.9%          34.0%          35.1%           35.1%          35.0%          35.0%

                Net Income       28,480         30,286         33,752         38,358         46,530         69,508         77,707          70,987         73,904         85,352

                 Basic EPS $       0.95    $      1.01    $      1.18    $      1.38    $      1.67    $      2.50    $      2.81    $      2.49    $      2.46    $      2.58
                Diluted EPS $      0.95    $      1.01    $      1.18    $      1.27    $      1.52    $      2.17    $      2.41    $      2.18    $      2.17    $      2.28

Basic Sharecount                 29,949         29,989         28,579         27,872         27,800         27,829         27,694          28,589         30,000         30,000
Diluted Sharecount               29,982         30,004         28,601         34,789         34,706         34,768         34,670          34,165         34,000         34,000



Gross margin                      35.0%          34.1%          35.9%          38.7%          39.2%          41.4%          40.8%          36.8%          36.0%          37.5%
SG&A % sales                      19.0%          17.7%          17.0%          19.1%          19.4%          17.0%          16.2%          15.8%          16.2%          16.7%
EBITDA margin                     21.3%          21.3%          23.7%          24.0%          24.4%          28.7%          29.2%          25.1%          23.9%          24.9%
Operating margin                  15.9%          16.4%          18.9%          19.6%          19.8%          24.4%          24.6%          21.0%          19.8%          20.8%
Net margin                        10.0%          10.8%          11.5%          11.5%          13.1%          17.2%          17.2%          13.5%          12.9%          13.5%

Sales                            -15.8%          -2.2%           5.3%          13.5%           6.2%          13.9%          11.7%          16.6%           9.3%          10.0%
SG&A                              15.6%          -8.9%           0.7%          27.6%           8.3%          -0.2%           6.2%          14.1%          12.0%          13.5%
EBITDA                           -36.6%          -2.2%          16.8%          15.3%           8.1%          33.9%          13.6%           0.3%           4.1%          14.2%
Operating income                 -42.3%           0.8%          21.5%          17.6%           7.1%          40.6%          12.8%          -0.9%           3.1%          15.5%
Net income                       -46.3%           6.3%          11.4%          13.6%          21.3%          49.4%          11.8%          -8.6%           4.1%          15.5%
EPS                              -46.0%           6.3%          16.9%           7.9%          19.0%          43.2%          11.1%          -9.7%          -0.2%           4.7%




BCF - KDN                                                                                                                                                               14/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                                                                                             Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
                 COLLEGE FUND



Quarterly Income Statement


Kaydon Corp
Qtrly Income Statement
                                Q1'08          Q2'08          Q3'08          Q4'08E          Q1'09E          Q2'09E          Q3'09E          Q4'09E          Q1'10E          Q2'10E          Q3'10E          Q4'10E
Sales                            123,284        139,905        126,803        136,102         131,914         153,896         139,483         149,712         145,105         169,285         153,432         164,683
COGS                              75,965         85,734         82,270          88,466          85,084          99,263          88,572          95,067          90,691        105,803           95,895        102,927
                Gross Profit      47,319         54,171         44,533          47,636          46,829          54,633          50,911          54,645          54,414          63,482          57,537          61,756

SG&A                             21,155         22,033         19,754          20,415          22,425          24,623          22,317          23,954          24,668          28,778          26,083          26,349
           Operating Income      26,164         32,138         24,779          27,220          24,404          30,010          28,594          30,691          29,747          34,703          31,453          35,407
                    EBITDA       31,664         37,638         30,279          32,720          30,404          36,010          34,594          36,691          36,247          41,203          37,953          41,907

Interest expense                   2,387          2,382          1,393          1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500
Interest income                    1,936          1,742          1,520          1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500           1,500
             Pretax Income        25,713         31,498         24,906         27,220          24,404          30,010          28,594          30,691          29,747          34,703          31,453          35,407

Taxes                              9,102         11,150          8,571           9,527           8,541         10,503          10,008          10,742          10,411          12,146          11,009          12,392
Tax rate                          35.4%          35.4%          34.4%           35.0%           35.0%          35.0%           35.0%           35.0%           35.0%           35.0%           35.0%           35.0%

                Net Income        16,611         20,348         16,335         17,693          15,863          19,506          18,586          19,949          19,335          22,557          20,445          23,014

                 Basic EPS $       0.61    $      0.75    $      0.55    $       0.59    $       0.53    $       0.65    $       0.62    $       0.66    $       0.64    $       0.75    $       0.68    $       0.77
                Diluted EPS $      0.52    $      0.63    $      0.50    $       0.52    $       0.47    $       0.57    $       0.55    $       0.59    $       0.57    $       0.66    $       0.60    $       0.68

Basic Sharecount                  27,384         27,291         29,679         30,000          30,000          30,000          30,000          30,000          30,000          30,000          30,000          30,000
Diluted Sharecount                34,350         34,237         34,072         34,000          34,000          34,000          34,000          34,000          34,000          34,000          34,000          34,000



Gross margin                      38.4%          38.7%          35.1%           35.0%           35.5%           35.5%           36.5%           36.5%           37.5%           37.5%           37.5%           37.5%
SG&A % sales                      17.2%          15.7%          15.6%           15.0%           17.0%           16.0%           16.0%           16.0%           17.0%           17.0%           17.0%           16.0%
EBITDA margin                     25.7%          26.9%          23.9%           24.0%           23.0%           23.4%           24.8%           24.5%           25.0%           24.3%           24.7%           25.4%
Operating margin                  21.2%          23.0%          19.5%           20.0%           18.5%           19.5%           20.5%           20.5%           20.5%           20.5%           20.5%           21.5%
Net margin                        13.5%          14.5%          12.9%           13.0%           12.0%           12.7%           13.3%           13.3%           13.3%           13.3%           13.3%           14.0%

Sales                             15.3%          23.4%          18.1%           10.0%            7.0%           10.0%           10.0%           10.0%           10.0%           10.0%           10.0%           10.0%
SG&A                              14.1%          12.3%            4.9%          27.3%            6.0%           11.8%           13.0%           17.3%           10.0%           16.9%           16.9%           10.0%
EBITDA                             0.7%          12.3%            2.2%         -12.3%           -4.0%           -4.3%           14.3%           12.1%           19.2%           14.4%            9.7%           14.2%
Operating income                  -0.5%          13.4%            1.3%         -15.4%           -6.7%           -6.6%           15.4%           12.8%           21.9%           15.6%           10.0%           15.4%
Net income                        -8.9%           3.6%           -4.7%         -22.0%           -4.5%           -4.1%           13.8%           12.8%           21.9%           15.6%           10.0%           15.4%
EPS                               -8.7%           4.9%           -6.6%         -25.6%          -10.9%           -9.6%            9.5%           12.8%           21.9%           15.6%           10.0%           15.4%




BCF - KDN                                                                                                                                                                                                    15/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                                   Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
                COLLEGE FUND


Consolidated Balance Sheet


Kaydon Corp
Balance Sheet
                                                                                                               Q3'08
                                  2001       2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009E      2010E
Assets
Cash                               152,570    146,301    255,756    278,586    320,804    370,789    286,993    262,731    250,000    250,000
Accounts receivable                 38,432     38,334     45,423     48,786     50,869     54,066     67,574     75,591     78,768     83,179
Inventories                         55,066     47,019     44,840     55,730     51,783     56,043     68,896     94,863     90,736     95,309
Other current assets                15,706     12,396     14,231      9,925     14,671     17,012     15,411     15,305     23,000     25,300
       Total current assets:      261,774    244,050    360,250    393,027    438,127    497,910    438,874     448,490    442,504    453,788
PP&E                                84,273     84,380     84,707     86,028     79,603     95,280    145,826    178,359    218,359    248,359
Goodwill                           121,708    108,770    112,183    113,375    117,168    119,484    146,922    146,396    146,396    146,396
Intangibles                                     9,744      8,903      9,200     24,288     21,271     31,162     27,113     27,113     27,113
Other assets                       30,043      30,203     24,331     17,494     11,401      3,611     23,781     15,748     15,748     15,748
               Total assets:      497,798     477,147    590,374    619,124    670,587    737,556    786,565    816,106    850,120    891,404

Liabilities
Current LT debt                         0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Short-term debt                         0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Accounts payable                   10,117     10,724     13,488     17,735     18,192     23,044     28,498     34,107      37,303     34,658
Accrued expenses                   21,528     29,709     28,834     25,961     26,552     28,588     30,000     30,980      44,158     47,438
     Total current liabilities:    31,645     40,433     42,322     43,696     44,744     51,632     58,498     65,087      81,461     82,096
Post-retirement obligation         44,652     61,139     63,890     64,524     64,765     46,083     17,401     28,453      20,000     20,000
Long-term debt                    112,194     72,367    200,128    200,066    200,000    200,000    200,000          0
Other long-term liabilities         5,503      4,459      3,515      2,157      1,402      6,661     27,276          0
             Total liabilities:   193,994    178,398    309,855    310,443    310,911    304,376    303,175     93,540     101,461    102,096

Equity
 Total shareholders equity:       303,804    298,749    280,519    308,681    359,676    433,180    483,390     722,566    748,659    789,308

  Total liabilities and equity:   497,798    477,147    590,374    619,124    670,587    737,556    786,565     816,106    850,120    891,404




BCF - KDN                                                                                                                             16/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                                Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
              COLLEGE FUND


Statement of Cash Flows


Kaydon Corp
Cash Flows

                               2001       2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008E      2009E      2010E
Operating cash flow
Net income                       28,480     12,204     33,752     38,358     46,530     69,508     77,707     70,987     73,904     85,352
D&A                              15,430     13,725     13,866     14,664     16,513     17,426     20,629     22,000     24,000     26,000
Accounting changes                          13,222                                                  5,033
Deferred taxes                       9         787     8,401      7,009      5,551      9,889      18,223
   Accounts receivable          13,191       1,087     6,084      2,144      7,030      2,469      10,469      3,052      8,141      4,411
   Inventories                   3,544       8,987     3,338      8,993      2,146      3,417       8,389      7,610     14,231      4,573
   Other current assets          2,025      10,945     2,391      2,253      1,029      1,650       5,249      6,685        904      2,300
   Accounts payable                844         109     2,485      3,817      2,130      4,627       4,464      3,379      5,425      2,645
   Accrued expenses              7,497         487     3,055         46     17,565      1,053       4,102     10,890      3,269      3,280
   Post-retirement oblig.          948       2,265     4,206      1,027      1,730      3,001      24,020
        Total operating CF:     51,236      62,244    60,628     53,983     41,224     89,860      74,259     89,909     83,322    100,703

Investing cash flow
ST investments                                                                                    57,000
Capex                            9,562      8,821     11,918     12,365     12,560     26,294     54,073      70,000     40,000     30,000
Acquisitions, net               54,274      5,104                 3,864     32,574                54,869
Other                                                                                              8,500
         Total Investing CF:    63,836     13,925     11,918     16,229     20,014     26,294    174,442      70,000     40,000     30,000

Financing cash flow
LT-debt payments                 6,053     40,160     72,282         90         62         66
Dividends                       14,596     14,616     14,017     13,541     13,528     13,530     14,354      15,000     15,750     16,538
Line of credit borrowing
Common stock issuance            2,239        475      5,104        115       1,000     1,626        390
Stock repurchases                1,655         20     52,193      2,117       6,102     3,404     30,091      10,000     10,000     10,000
LT-debt issuance                70,750               192,674                    940
Other
         Total financing CF:    50,685     54,321     59,286     15,633     19,632     15,374     44,055      25,000     25,750     26,538

FX effect                          480        267      1,459        709        612      1,793      3,442       1,200      1,200      1,200
Net change in cash              37,605      6,269    109,455     22,830     42,218     49,985    140,796       3,891     18,772     45,365
Beginning cash                 114,965    152,570    146,301    255,756    278,586    320,804    370,789     229,993    226,102    244,874
Ending cash                    152,570    146,301    255,756    278,586    320,804    370,789    229,993     226,102    244,874    290,239




BCF - KDN                                                                                                                          17/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                                Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
                COLLEGE FUND


Working Capital Worksheet


Kaydon Corp
Working Capital Worksheet
                                                               2004       2005       2006       2007       2008E      2009E      2010E
Sales                                                           333,811    354,558    403,992    451,382    526,094    575,005    632,505
Cost of Sales                                                   204,668    215,528    236,566    267,082    332,435    367,986    395,316

Working Capital Balances
Accounts Receivable, net                                        48,786     50,869     54,066     67,574      70,626     78,768     83,179
Inventories                                                     55,730     51,783     56,043     68,896      76,506     90,736     95,309
Other Current Assets                                             9,925     14,671     17,012     15,411      22,096     23,000     25,300
       Total Non-Cash Current Assets:                          114,441    117,323    127,121    151,881     169,228    192,504    203,788

Accounts Payable                                                17,735     18,192     23,044     28,498      31,877     37,303     34,658
Accrued Expenses                                                25,961     26,552     28,588     30,000      40,890     44,158     47,438
       Total Non-Debt Current Liabilities:                      43,696     44,744     51,632     58,498      72,767     81,461     82,096

NET WORKING CAPITAL / (DEFICIT)                                 70,745     72,579     75,489     93,383      96,461    111,043    121,692

(Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital                                      1,834      2,910     17,894       3,078     14,582     10,649

Ratios and Assumptions, actual, not average
        Accounts Receivable, net (Collection period in days)      53.3       52.4       48.8       54.6       49.0        50.0       48.0
        Inventories (Days)                                        99.4       87.7       86.5       94.2       84.0        90.0       88.0
        Other Current Assets as % of Sales                       3.0%       4.1%       4.2%       3.4%        4.2%       4.0%       4.0%

       Accounts Payable (Days outstanding)                        31.6       30.8       35.6       38.9       35.0        37.0       32.0
       Accrued Liabilities as % of Cost of Sales                12.7%      12.3%      12.1%      11.2%       12.3%      12.0%      12.0%

Cash Flows by Individual Accounts
       Accounts Receivable, net                                             2,083      3,197     13,508       3,052      8,141      4,411
       Inventories                                                          3,947      4,260     12,853       7,610     14,231      4,573
       Other Current Assets                                                 4,746      2,341      1,601       6,685        904      2,300
       Accounts Payable                                                       457      4,852      5,454       3,379      5,425      2,645
       Accrued Liabilities                                                    591      2,036      1,412      10,890      3,269      3,280
(Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital                                      1,834      2,910     17,894       3,078     14,582     10,649




BCF - KDN                                                                                                                         18/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                                              Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
              COLLEGE FUND


Ratios


                                                                                                      Q3'08
          Ratio          2001       2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008        2009E      2010E

Current Ratio             827.2%     603.6%     851.2%     899.5%     979.2%     964.3%     750.2%     689.1%      543.2%     552.8%
Cash Ratio                482.1%     361.8%     604.3%     637.6%     717.0%     718.1%     490.6%     403.7%      306.9%     304.5%
Cash per Share               5.09       4.88       8.94       8.01       9.24      10.66       8.28       7.69        7.35       7.35

Debt to Equity             36.9%      24.2%      71.3%      64.8%      55.6%      46.2%      41.4%       0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Net Debt to Equity        -13.3%     -24.7%     -19.8%     -25.4%     -33.6%     -39.4%     -18.0%     -36.4%      -33.4%      -31.7%
Debt to Capital            27.0%      19.5%      41.6%      39.3%      35.7%      31.6%      29.3%       0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Net Debt to Capital        -9.7%     -19.9%     -11.6%     -15.4%     -21.6%     -27.0%     -12.7%     -36.4%      -33.4%      -31.7%

ROE - Extended DuPont
                           15.9%      16.4%      18.9%      19.6%      19.8%      24.4%      24.6%       21.0%       19.8%      20.8%
                           57.4%      58.6%      49.8%      53.9%      52.9%      54.8%      57.4%       64.5%       67.6%      71.0%
                           -0.1%       0.2%      -0.6%      -0.9%      -0.1%       0.9%       1.1%       -0.1%        0.0%       0.0%
                          163.9%     159.7%     210.5%     200.6%     186.4%     170.3%     162.7%      112.9%      113.6%     112.9%
                           63.0%      64.9%      65.0%      64.0%      67.1%      66.0%      64.9%       64.9%       65.0%      65.0%
                            9.5%       9.8%      13.8%      14.7%      13.2%      14.0%      13.8%      10.0%        9.9%      10.8%
ROA                         5.8%       6.1%       6.6%       7.4%       7.1%       8.2%       8.5%       8.9%        8.7%       9.6%
ROCE                        9.8%      10.5%      10.2%      11.4%      11.2%      14.4%      15.3%      14.7%       14.8%      16.2%

Receivables Turn            7.4x       7.3x       6.5x       6.8x       7.0x       7.5x       6.7x        7.0x        7.3x       7.6x
Collection Period           49.1       50.1       56.4       53.3       52.4       48.8       54.6        52.4        50.0       48.0
Inventory Turn              3.4x       3.9x       4.2x       3.7x       4.2x       4.2x       3.9x        3.5x        4.1x       4.1x
Inventory Proc. Period     108.2       93.2       86.8       99.4       87.7       86.5       94.2       104.2        90.0       88.0
Payables Turn              18.4x      17.2x      14.0x      11.5x      11.8x      10.3x       9.4x        9.7x        9.9x      11.4x
Payment Period              19.9       21.3       26.1       31.6       30.8       35.6       38.9        37.4        37.0       32.0
Cash Conversion Cycle      177.2      164.6      169.3      184.4      170.9      170.9      187.7       194.0       177.0      168.0




BCF - KDN                                                                                                                     19/20
11/18/08
BABSON
                                                                                     Kaydon Corp. (KDN)
            COLLEGE FUND


Valuation


                                   Price to Earnings
                   Price                                 2007      2008      2009
                   $     22.00     EPS                   2.41      2.18      2.17
                                                        9.12X    10.10X    10.12X



                                   Price to Sales
                                                         2007      2008      2009
                                   Sales/share          13.02     15.40     16.91
                                                        1.69X     1.43X     1.30X



                                   Enterprise Value to EBITDA
                                                        2007        2008      2009
                                   Shares out         34,670      34,165    34,000
                                 + Debt              200,000           0         0
                                 - Cash              286,993     262,731   250,000
                                        EV           675,753     488,894   498,000

                                   EBITDA              131,892   132,301   137,699
                                                         5.12X     3.70X     3.62X



                                   Enterprise Value to Sales

                                                          2007      2008      2009
                                   Shares out           34,670    34,165    34,000
                                 + Debt                200,000         0         0
                                 - Cash                286,993   262,731   250,000
                                        EV             675,753   488,894   498,000

                                   Sales               451,382   526,094   575,005
                                                         1.50X     0.93X     0.87X




BCF - KDN                                                                                         20/20
11/18/08

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Kdn Report

  • 1. BABSON COLLEGE FUND Rating: BUY Kaydon Corp. (KDN) Price Target: $30.85 Industry: Specialty Bearings FY06(A) FY07(A) 1Q08(A) 2Q08(A) 3Q08(A) 4Q08(E) FY08(E) FY09(E) Close 19-Nov-2008 Sales (mm) 403,992 451,382 123,284 139,905 126,803 136,102 526,094 575,005 Price $24.89 Rev. Growth 13.9% 11.7% 15.3% 23.4% 18.1% 10.0% 16.6% 9.3% Shares Outstanding (mm) 34 EBITDA Margin 28.7% 29.2% 25.7% 26.9% 23.9% 24.0% 25.1% 23.9% Market Cap (mm) $900 ROA 8.2% 8.5% 8.9% 8.7% Source: Capital IQ ROE 14.0% 13.8% 10.0% 9.9% Consensus EPS $ 2.17 $ 2.41 $ 0.52 $ 0.63 $ 0.50 $ 0.53 $ 2.20 $ 2.11 BCF Est. EPS $ 2.17 $ 2.41 $ 0.52 $ 0.63 $ 0.50 $ 0.52 $ 2.18 $ 2.17 Price/Earnings 11.5X 10.3X 10.5X 10.4X 10.6X 11.4X 11.4X 11.5X Basic Information Price/Sales 2.1X 1.9X 1.8X 1.7X 1.7X 1.6X 1.6X 1.5X Beta 1.4 Price/Book 2.0X 1.8X 1.2X 1.1X FY End: Dec 31 Dividend Yield 2.8% Diluted EPS (ttm) $2.36 Investment Thesis Long Term EPS Growth 15% Kaydon is a major player in the rapidly growing wind power generation Cash per share $7.69 market; however, the stock is currently not illustrating any of that business’s LT Debt to Total Capital 0% % of S&P 500 0% potential upside. We believe the company’s end markets are more stable % of Benchmark (IYJ) 0.07% than what is currently being discounted by the market. Moreover, Kaydon’s Book Value per share $21.25 lack of debt and almost $8 per share in cash on the balance sheet represent ttm as of Sept. 2008 the possibility of substantial short-term catalysts. Source: Capital IQ, Northfield Investment Outlook and Valuation Company Overview We rate KDN a BUY. Shares currently trade at about 4.7X trailing EV/EBITDA Kaydon is a designer and which marks a new valuation trough for KDN; it had bottomed out in the manufacturer of custom- last two recessions at slightly lower than 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA. Our price engineered, performance-critical target of $30.85 represents about 6.0X 2008 EV/EBITDA. Even though products serving many different customers. Its three main Kaydon is caught in a cyclical downturn, it should trade no lower than past segments produce friction control lows given its presence in the wind market which was not as large of a products, such as specialty percentage of its business in the past. bearings; velocity control products, such as industrial shock absorbers; Risks to Outlook and sealing products, such as engine rings. Disappearance of Federal Funds – a strong driver of wind capacity production is the Production Tax Credit (PTC) which is authorized by Source: Capital IQ Congress. Should this credit disappear, future wind capacity, and KDN, will be harmed. Analysts Acquisition Risk – Kaydon recently made its largest acquisition in the last Eric S. Crawley seven years and is poised to make another large one. If the company is unable to assimilate acquisitions efficiently, or spends its money unwisely, Kaydon’s returns could be smaller in the future. BCF - KDN 1/20 11/18/08
  • 2. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND RECENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Kaydon does not give formal guidance so the few analysts that cover the stock, about seven, have a hard time predicting how the company will perform on a quarter-to-quarter basis. For example, on the past earnings release, KDN missed the street by about $0.10 and shares soared more than 30% over the next week. The habit of the Street and its treatment of KDN is characterized by ratcheting up estimates as the company beats, and then cutting them sharply should the company disappoint. This is happening currently, as 2008 earnings estimates had gone from about $3 to about $2 as the year has progressed, creating a lower hurdle. Outside of that, Kaydon has been posting relatively solid numbers amid an increasingly weakening environment. The company recorded about a 13% organic increase in sales for the quarter, though the 2007 comp was an easy one. Still, anything positive in today’s economic backdrop is encouraging. The reason why net income has been relatively stable is the company’s exposure to the wind power generation market. Sales to this industry are expected to be about $90 million in 2008, up from about $32.8 million in 2007. They are expected to reach $140 million in 2009. These revenues, about 20% of total, are so far offsetting the company’s weaker end markets. One drastic change throughout the past few quarters is the company’s decrease in interest income from over $4 million last year, to about $1.5 million this year in each quarter. This is mainly due to the effective interest rate on their cash at 2.2%, down from over 5% last year. Though this decrease in interest income depressed earnings by about $0.06 from last quarter, it is positive to see the company is not chasing unsafe yields. Cash currently represents about $7.69 per share on the balance sheet and it is doubtful the company will remain content with earning 2.2% on it for long. Kaydon’s acquisition strategy has been to minimize debt, accumulate cash, and then buy something struggling. Kaydon now has no debt, plenty of cash, and there are struggling companies aplenty. Capital expenditures appear to be a tailwind for cash generation going forward. The winning servants of the wind power generation market will not be technology leaders. Especially in windmills, the technology has been around for quite some time. The winners will therefore have the capacity to serve the growth. Kaydon has ramped up capital expenditures over the past three years from $12 to $70 million in order to create capacity. The company has signaled that this is coming to an end, and capex could trail down to maintenance levels of about $20 to $30 million over the next couple years. Certainly, an extra $50 million annually would be beneficial. Finally, the company completed the redemption of the remainder of its long-term debt on September 21, 2008. Kaydon had issued $200 million of contingent-convertible bonds due 2023. All notes were converted to about 6.8 million shares. However, these shares were already included in the company’s diluted share count, so no assumptions need to be changed going forward about the diluted share count. BCF - KDN 2/20 11/18/08
  • 3. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND YTD KDN price performance Source: BigCharts.com One year return of KDN vs. iShares Dow Jones US INDUSTRIAL ETF (IYJ), and S&P 500 Source: BigCharts.com BCF - KDN 3/20 11/18/08
  • 4. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AND VALUATION Cyclical Business The company’s main products are specialized bearings. This is a highly cyclical business. Earnings compressed in both the early 90’s and 00’s, and are expected to contract again in 2008 and 2009. This time around, however, they are estimated to be buffeted by demand for the company’s wind related products, mainly large diameter bearings. The wind power generation industry will be explained below in greater detail, but it is driven by government subsidies. Another end market, defense and aerospace, is also deemed relatively stable through the cycles as it is mainly paid for by the government as well. These markets represent about 40% of Kaydon’s revenue footprint. The US government is certainly not infinitely rich, but it has deeper pockets than many of Kaydon’s competitors’ other end markets, such as automotive and commercial aerospace. Short-term Catalysts Kaydon’s recommendation does not hinge on an acquisition it will make, but it is useful to note that the company’s powder keg is full and primed. Kaydon’s largest acquisition to date was Ace Controls in 2001 for $70.6 million when Kaydon had no debt and the industry was in recession. We currently find ourselves in the same situation and KDN now has double the cash on its balance sheet as well. Valuation Kaydon is valued mainly on an EV/EBITDA basis. This is logical as the company’s production is highly capital intensive, and there is a fair amount of non-cash charges like depreciation each year that skew the true measure of Kaydon’s operations. 2008 depreciation is expected to be about $22 million, almost 25% of CFO. BCF - KDN 4/20 11/18/08
  • 5. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND RISKS TO INVESTMENT The future is not automatically bright for Kaydon, however. There are a few risks that could seriously compromise the investment thesis. They include: Disappearance of Federal Funds – A strong motivation to invest in wind power is a current power generation subsidy that the government offers under the Production Tax Credit (PTC). The PTC was enacted in 1992 and has since gone through many short-term extensions. It was most recently extended in October 2008 by Congress and allows for a 2.1c income tax credit per kilowatt hour generated by a wind turbine. The total earmark in 2007 was $2.5 - $3 billion. Although the PTC has only been allowed to lapse for three individual years since inception in 1992, the year after each lapse proved detrimental for the wind power generation industry and its suppliers. The PTC is up for expiration again December 31, 2009 and there is no guarantee is will be extended. Acquisition Risk – Although Kaydon can generate organic growth, it also relies on acquisitions to drive the top line. The company has made a series of bolt-on acquisitions over time and once in a while it levers up to purchase something large. Below is a history of the company’s acquisitions with price paid in millions. Kaydon Corp Acquisitions 2007 Avon Bearings 55.0 10/28/07 Wide-dimameter bearings 2005 Purafil 42.7 1/7/05 Filtration company 2002 Printed Circuit 4.4 5/17/02 Printed circuit boards and fexible printed tapes 2001 ACE Controls 70.6 3/1/01 Linear decleration products 2000 Tridan Group 46.6 8/28/00 Specialty production AC equipment; Alloy manufacturer 1999 Focal Technologies 8.8 Q4'99 Fiber-optic and fluid transmission devices Filterdyne 5.0 Q4'99 Filtration and vacuum distillation systems 1997 Gold Star 4.5 3/11/97 Custom designed cylinders Great Bend 22.9 5/29/97 Custom designed cylinders 1996 Benton Harbor 10.7 2/1/96 Hydraulic cylinders and fluid power components 1995 Seabee 22.7 8/31/95 Large hydraulic cylinders and alloy steel castings 1994 Industrial Tectonics 7.3 1/28/94 Specialty balls Most acquisitions do not meet the buyer’s expectations, and as Kaydon grows, it must make more small acquisitions or considerably larger ones, in order to move the dial. Another risk is the double-edged nature of Kaydon’s success. It has the highest gross margin of its peers. It prides itself with entering only businesses where others find it too difficult to operate. As time goes by and the company grows, these opportunities appear less frequently, and the risk rises that Kaydon will acquire something unwise. BCF - KDN 5/20 11/18/08
  • 6. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Kaydon is a designer and manufacturer of custom- engineered, performance-critical products serving many different customers. About 70% of sales are domestic. Its three main segments produce friction control products, velocity control products, and sealing products. Friction Control Products – These are the most identifiable products with Kaydon. They include specialty bearings for many end markets, and include products like anti-friction bearings, split roller bearings, and specialty balls. Velocity Control Products – Products include industrial shock absorbers (like what lies at the end of a metro line), safety shock absorbers, gas springs, and rotary dampers. Sealing Products – These are mostly for the aerospace and defense markets and include products like standard ring and seal products. Other businesses include gas filtration systems, machine tool components, dies, presses, and benders. Kaydon benefits from a diverse customer base in many different industries. The smaller end markets, along with the catch-all, General Industrial, have been the most negatively affected by the current economic downturn while the Defense and Power Generation markets have been the most stable. The defense market is actually where Kaydon initially made a name for itself as a mission-critical, custom manufacturer. In 1941 it began making the bearing housings for different rotating deck guns for the US Navy. Since then it has expanded into providing bearings for tank turrets and helicopters, but the largest piece of its current defense business is for the HMMWV and its successor, the MRAP. This is notable because the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle has been instrumental in saving US soldiers’ lives in Iraq and in Afghanistan. In June 2008, USA Today noted that roadside bomb attacks and fatalities were down almost 90%, partially due to the added protection of the MRAP on patrol instead of the traditional or up-armored Humvee. Given this vehicle’s success in saving lives, it is unlikely the current orders will be trimmed due to potential military spending cutbacks. BCF - KDN 6/20 11/18/08
  • 7. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND COMPETITION The ball bearing was invented by Leonardo da Vinci and throughout time has become something of a commodity. Kaydon has found success, however, not in what it makes, but rather where the company applies it. In short, Kaydon does not like competition. It would rather fill all the orders of a smaller run than just a few of a larger run. There are two ways to compete with a commodity product: be the low-price, high-volume player, or the high- price, custom player. Kaydon has found itself in the latter niche. For example, two larger companies, SKR ($3 billion market cap) and Timkin ($1 billion market cap) have much lower EBITDA margins. SKR returns 15.5% and Timkin returns 14%. This compares to Kaydon’s 24% EBITDA margin in Q3’08. A major driver of this is that the two larger companies compete heavily in the automotive and commercial aerospace markets which are more highly competitive. Kaydon has been able to string together enough niche applications that it can generate strong cash flow and returns on a larger basis. In this sense, the wind power generation market is a logical fit for Kaydon. There is no standard size for wind turbines, and it becomes more difficult to build stable bearings in larger applications. KDN’s last acquisition, Avon, specializes in this application, and can build bearings 240 inches in diameter. This fits the custom-engineered part of Kaydon’s strategy. Wind turbines are also mission critical. The larger towers are 80 meters tall and the last thing an owner of a wind farm needs is to be clambering up them in order to un-jam a rotor. Less friction equals more revolutions which equals more energy production. These parts cannot fail. 20% by 2030 There is a goal floating around Congress that the country should be producing 20% of its energy needs via renewable power by 2030. The PTC was enacted to encourage this goal. An interesting feature of this mandate is that it is state controlled, not federal. So some states like Oregon have a target of 25%, and Massachusetts has set a target of 4%. According to Dr. James Walker, the current president of the American Wind Energy Association, only about 1.5% of our nation’s energy needs are generated by wind power, but capacity is growing quickly. There is a current wind installed base of 18k megawatts. Four years ago there was 6k. At the moment, a kilowatt of wind power is the cheapest type of alternative energy to create. Hydro is hampered by location, and solar is coming down in price quickly, but there still needs to be technological advances before it is more competitive than wind power. BCF - KDN 7/20 11/18/08
  • 8. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND VALUATION Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Kaydon Discounted Cash Flow Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Operating Income 110,301 113,699 131,310 152,727 189,611 233,828 Income Tax Expense 38,350 39,795 45,959 53,454 66,364 81,840 EBIAT 71,951 73,904 85,352 99,273 123,247 151,988 Depreciation 22,000 24,000 26,000 27,300 28,665 30,098 Capex 70,000 40,000 30,000 30,600 31,212 31,836 Change in WC 3,078 14,582 10,649 9,584 9,105 9,105 FCF to Enterprise 20,873 43,322 70,703 86,389 111,595 141,145 Terminal Value 1,425,290 FCF to Enterprise 20,873 43,322 70,703 86,389 111,595 1,566,436 NPV 958,082 Less Debt 0 Shareholders' Equity 958,082 Shares Out 34,165 $28.04 Value per Share Assumptions Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Op. Inc. Growth 3.08% 15.49% 16.31% 24.15% 23.32% Tax Rate 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% Net Income 4.11% 15.49% 16.31% 24.15% 23.32% Depreciation 9.09% 8.33% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% Capex -42.86% -25.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Change in WC 373.76% -26.97% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% g 3.00% Beta 1.4 Risk Free Rate 3.40% Market Risk Premium 7.00% Cost of Capital 13.20% The discounted cash flow yields a price of $28.04. The driving assumptions behind this model are that wind revenues will continue to be strong and offset the drop off of Kaydon’s other businesses until they pick up again a couple years out. Also, capital expenditures are set to drop off to near maintenance levels over the next five years as management has prescribed. Note that KDN’s cost of capital, 13.2% is relatively high due to the fact that it has no debt. None of the aforementioned catalysts are modeled in, so this could be considered a base case scenario. If the company decided to make an acquisition, buy back stock, or lever up for an intelligent reason, the implied share price could be considerably higher. BCF - KDN 8/20 11/18/08
  • 9. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Peer Group Analysis DuPont Drivers 11/19/2008 Kaydon Comparison of Peers Return Asset Leverage LTM LTM Market LTM Company Cap GM Debt/Cap on Sales Turnover A/E ROA ROE EV/EBITDA P/E Emerson Electric (EMR) 25,404 36.8% 33.1% 16.5% 1.2X 2.31 19.8% 45.7% 5.9X 10.5X Franklin Electric (FELE) 737 30.1% 33.3% 10.9% 1.1X 1.85 12.0% 22.2% 8.3X 16.1X Kennametal (KMT) 1,220 33.8% 24.5% 11.1% 1.0X 1.83 11.1% 20.3% 4.1X 7.7X RBC Bearings (ROLL) 412 33.6% 17.4% 18.6% 1.1X 1.45 20.5% 29.7% 5.8X 9.8X Mean 6,943 33.6% 27.1% 14.3% 1.1X 1.86 15.8% 29.5% 6.0X 11.0X Kaydon (KDN) 900 37.8% 0.0% 22.4% 0.7X 1.13 15.7% 17.7% 4.7X 11.9X Implied Valuation Current Price $25.00 Forward EBITDA 137,699 Current EV / EBITDA 4.7X Mean Multiple 6.0X Forward EBITDA 137,699 Implied Price $31.75 The above peer group was chosen for the following reasons. Emerson Electric is much larger than Kaydon, but it is known as a premiere engineered products company and at a level where Kaydon could reach some day. Franklin Electric manufactures mission critical, submersible pumps. Kennametal manufactures customized tools and dies. RBC is in the bearings market, but in the more mainstream markets. The implied value of Kaydon from its peers is $31.75. We feel KDN should be valued at least at 6.0X EV/EBITDA because KDN has higher gross and operating margins than its peers, generates a comparable return on assets, and does this with no debt. Yet, the company trades at a discount. BCF - KDN 9/20 11/18/08
  • 10. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Historical Multiple Analysis Kaydon is valued primarily on an EV/EBITDA basis. To the right is a graph of the stock’s historical multiple performance. The graph demonstrates the effect of three recessions on the company’s multiple: around 1993, 2000, and 2008. EV/EBITDA appears to bottom out at just below 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA. At $24.89, shares trade at about 4.7X trailing EV/EBITDA which represents a new multiple trough. This is reasonable as today’s economic environment seems more uncertain than in the early 90’s or even after September 11th. The past does not always predict the future, but this graph states that shares of KDN are trading at about where they should be when the economy is in a recession. We believe, however, it does not take into account the potential upside from wind revenues going forward. Implied Valuation Each of the three valuations contains certain strengths and weaknesses. To derive a final price target, we feel it prudent to take a weighted average of each output. Given this method, we propose a 12-month price target of $30.85. This represents about 6.0X trailing EV/EBITDA. Since Price Target Valuation Method Price Weight Kaydon generates stable cash flow, even in recessionary DCF 28.04 40% environments, we thought it appropriate to weight the DCF the Comp Co 31.75 30% heaviest. However, it does not take into account potential Historical Multiple 33.68 30% Price Target 30.85 catalysts of making an acquisition or buying back stocks. The comparison of peers is valuable, but the definition of a niche business is one that is not mainstream, and since Kaydon is a collection of them, finding the correct companies for comparison is challenging. We feel as though Kaydon’s current valuation relative to its history represents a bargain, but today’s economic environment appears more uncertain, so present and future recessions may not necessarily mirror past economic contractions. Therefore, we feel the above blend is a reasonable combination of valuation methodologies. BCF - KDN 10/20 11/18/08
  • 11. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND WALL STREET ANALYST RECOMMENDATION TRENDS Management does not give formal guidance, so Kaydon’s analyst core (about seven) tends to raise expectations until the company misses, then sharply reel them in. This situation is playing out now. The bar graph above illustrates Kaydon beating expectations throughout the year until it sorely missed this past quarter. Analysts have moved swiftly to take in expectations for about $3 EPS in 2009 to about $2. Analysts remain generally bullish, however. BCF - KDN 11/20 11/18/08
  • 12. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND MANAGEMENT AND MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS Management Bios The current President and CEO of Kaydon is James O’Leary (45). He was appointed by the Board in March of 2007 and has been a director of the company since 2005. Before Kaydon, he was the CFO of Beazer, a top-10 public homebuilder in the southeastern US from 2002 – 2005. His prior work experience is in the industrial space. He has been the champion of ramping up capacity for the wind market over the past two years. O’Leary took over for Brian Campbell who retired from Kaydon after 10 years at the helm at 66. He was the company’s Chairman, CEO, and CFO. Some have speculated that he was forced out because he did not want to give up his role as CFO. 66 does not seem that old for someone so involved in the company, but it is not necessarily a young ago to retire either. In any case, his departure was unexpected and speculation because of this is natural. We believe Kaydon’s current management team to be solid but nothing groundbreaking. O’Leary does not have a magnificent track record, but that does not mean he cannot create one at Kaydon. Major Shareholders BCF - KDN 12/20 11/18/08
  • 13. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Analyst Certification The analysts on the cover of this report certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about all the subject matter inside and that all assumptions were made with the highest level of due diligence possible. Explanation of Equity Research Ratings The Babson College Fund uses the following rating system: Buy – The stock is expected to outperform its sector over the next 12 months by more than 10%. Hold – The stock is expected to perform no more or less than 10% of it sector over the next 12 months. Sell – The stock is expected to underperform its sector over the next 12 months by more than 10%. The sector benchmark is IYJ for the Industrial sector. The Babson College Fund Portfolio Managers equity research rating distribution as of 11/18/08: Buy Hold Sell 100% 0% 0% References 1. BCF Estimates 2. Company website – www.kaydon.com 3. Company SEC filings 4. Earnings calls 5. Thomson ONE Banker 6. Capital IQ 7. BigCharts.com 8. Northfield BCF - KDN 13/20 11/18/08
  • 14. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND APPENDIX - SUPPORTING ANALYSIS Consolidated Statements of Income Kaydon Corp Income Statement 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Sales 285,603 279,410 294,092 333,811 354,558 403,992 451,382 526,094 575,005 632,505 COGS 185,758 184,061 188,508 204,668 215,528 236,566 267,082 332,435 367,986 395,316 Gross Profit 99,845 95,349 105,584 129,143 139,030 167,426 184,300 193,659 207,019 237,189 SG&A 54,348 49,493 49,862 63,606 68,854 68,746 73,037 83,357 93,320 105,879 Operating Income 45,497 45,856 55,722 65,537 70,176 98,680 111,263 110,301 113,699 131,310 EBITDA 60,927 59,581 69,588 80,201 86,689 116,106 131,892 132,301 137,699 157,310 Interest expense 4,968 1,885 6,289 9,589 9,579 9,554 9,552 7,662 6,000 6,000 Interest income 4,676 2,695 2,493 3,987 8,747 16,253 18,051 6,698 6,000 6,000 Pretax Income 45,205 46,666 51,926 59,935 69,344 105,379 119,762 109,337 113,699 131,310 Taxes 16,725 16,380 18,174 21,577 22,814 35,871 42,055 38,350 39,795 45,959 Tax rate 37.0% 35.1% 35.0% 36.0% 32.9% 34.0% 35.1% 35.1% 35.0% 35.0% Net Income 28,480 30,286 33,752 38,358 46,530 69,508 77,707 70,987 73,904 85,352 Basic EPS $ 0.95 $ 1.01 $ 1.18 $ 1.38 $ 1.67 $ 2.50 $ 2.81 $ 2.49 $ 2.46 $ 2.58 Diluted EPS $ 0.95 $ 1.01 $ 1.18 $ 1.27 $ 1.52 $ 2.17 $ 2.41 $ 2.18 $ 2.17 $ 2.28 Basic Sharecount 29,949 29,989 28,579 27,872 27,800 27,829 27,694 28,589 30,000 30,000 Diluted Sharecount 29,982 30,004 28,601 34,789 34,706 34,768 34,670 34,165 34,000 34,000 Gross margin 35.0% 34.1% 35.9% 38.7% 39.2% 41.4% 40.8% 36.8% 36.0% 37.5% SG&A % sales 19.0% 17.7% 17.0% 19.1% 19.4% 17.0% 16.2% 15.8% 16.2% 16.7% EBITDA margin 21.3% 21.3% 23.7% 24.0% 24.4% 28.7% 29.2% 25.1% 23.9% 24.9% Operating margin 15.9% 16.4% 18.9% 19.6% 19.8% 24.4% 24.6% 21.0% 19.8% 20.8% Net margin 10.0% 10.8% 11.5% 11.5% 13.1% 17.2% 17.2% 13.5% 12.9% 13.5% Sales -15.8% -2.2% 5.3% 13.5% 6.2% 13.9% 11.7% 16.6% 9.3% 10.0% SG&A 15.6% -8.9% 0.7% 27.6% 8.3% -0.2% 6.2% 14.1% 12.0% 13.5% EBITDA -36.6% -2.2% 16.8% 15.3% 8.1% 33.9% 13.6% 0.3% 4.1% 14.2% Operating income -42.3% 0.8% 21.5% 17.6% 7.1% 40.6% 12.8% -0.9% 3.1% 15.5% Net income -46.3% 6.3% 11.4% 13.6% 21.3% 49.4% 11.8% -8.6% 4.1% 15.5% EPS -46.0% 6.3% 16.9% 7.9% 19.0% 43.2% 11.1% -9.7% -0.2% 4.7% BCF - KDN 14/20 11/18/08
  • 15. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Quarterly Income Statement Kaydon Corp Qtrly Income Statement Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08E Q1'09E Q2'09E Q3'09E Q4'09E Q1'10E Q2'10E Q3'10E Q4'10E Sales 123,284 139,905 126,803 136,102 131,914 153,896 139,483 149,712 145,105 169,285 153,432 164,683 COGS 75,965 85,734 82,270 88,466 85,084 99,263 88,572 95,067 90,691 105,803 95,895 102,927 Gross Profit 47,319 54,171 44,533 47,636 46,829 54,633 50,911 54,645 54,414 63,482 57,537 61,756 SG&A 21,155 22,033 19,754 20,415 22,425 24,623 22,317 23,954 24,668 28,778 26,083 26,349 Operating Income 26,164 32,138 24,779 27,220 24,404 30,010 28,594 30,691 29,747 34,703 31,453 35,407 EBITDA 31,664 37,638 30,279 32,720 30,404 36,010 34,594 36,691 36,247 41,203 37,953 41,907 Interest expense 2,387 2,382 1,393 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 Interest income 1,936 1,742 1,520 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 Pretax Income 25,713 31,498 24,906 27,220 24,404 30,010 28,594 30,691 29,747 34,703 31,453 35,407 Taxes 9,102 11,150 8,571 9,527 8,541 10,503 10,008 10,742 10,411 12,146 11,009 12,392 Tax rate 35.4% 35.4% 34.4% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Net Income 16,611 20,348 16,335 17,693 15,863 19,506 18,586 19,949 19,335 22,557 20,445 23,014 Basic EPS $ 0.61 $ 0.75 $ 0.55 $ 0.59 $ 0.53 $ 0.65 $ 0.62 $ 0.66 $ 0.64 $ 0.75 $ 0.68 $ 0.77 Diluted EPS $ 0.52 $ 0.63 $ 0.50 $ 0.52 $ 0.47 $ 0.57 $ 0.55 $ 0.59 $ 0.57 $ 0.66 $ 0.60 $ 0.68 Basic Sharecount 27,384 27,291 29,679 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Diluted Sharecount 34,350 34,237 34,072 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 Gross margin 38.4% 38.7% 35.1% 35.0% 35.5% 35.5% 36.5% 36.5% 37.5% 37.5% 37.5% 37.5% SG&A % sales 17.2% 15.7% 15.6% 15.0% 17.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0% EBITDA margin 25.7% 26.9% 23.9% 24.0% 23.0% 23.4% 24.8% 24.5% 25.0% 24.3% 24.7% 25.4% Operating margin 21.2% 23.0% 19.5% 20.0% 18.5% 19.5% 20.5% 20.5% 20.5% 20.5% 20.5% 21.5% Net margin 13.5% 14.5% 12.9% 13.0% 12.0% 12.7% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.0% Sales 15.3% 23.4% 18.1% 10.0% 7.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% SG&A 14.1% 12.3% 4.9% 27.3% 6.0% 11.8% 13.0% 17.3% 10.0% 16.9% 16.9% 10.0% EBITDA 0.7% 12.3% 2.2% -12.3% -4.0% -4.3% 14.3% 12.1% 19.2% 14.4% 9.7% 14.2% Operating income -0.5% 13.4% 1.3% -15.4% -6.7% -6.6% 15.4% 12.8% 21.9% 15.6% 10.0% 15.4% Net income -8.9% 3.6% -4.7% -22.0% -4.5% -4.1% 13.8% 12.8% 21.9% 15.6% 10.0% 15.4% EPS -8.7% 4.9% -6.6% -25.6% -10.9% -9.6% 9.5% 12.8% 21.9% 15.6% 10.0% 15.4% BCF - KDN 15/20 11/18/08
  • 16. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Consolidated Balance Sheet Kaydon Corp Balance Sheet Q3'08 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E Assets Cash 152,570 146,301 255,756 278,586 320,804 370,789 286,993 262,731 250,000 250,000 Accounts receivable 38,432 38,334 45,423 48,786 50,869 54,066 67,574 75,591 78,768 83,179 Inventories 55,066 47,019 44,840 55,730 51,783 56,043 68,896 94,863 90,736 95,309 Other current assets 15,706 12,396 14,231 9,925 14,671 17,012 15,411 15,305 23,000 25,300 Total current assets: 261,774 244,050 360,250 393,027 438,127 497,910 438,874 448,490 442,504 453,788 PP&E 84,273 84,380 84,707 86,028 79,603 95,280 145,826 178,359 218,359 248,359 Goodwill 121,708 108,770 112,183 113,375 117,168 119,484 146,922 146,396 146,396 146,396 Intangibles 9,744 8,903 9,200 24,288 21,271 31,162 27,113 27,113 27,113 Other assets 30,043 30,203 24,331 17,494 11,401 3,611 23,781 15,748 15,748 15,748 Total assets: 497,798 477,147 590,374 619,124 670,587 737,556 786,565 816,106 850,120 891,404 Liabilities Current LT debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts payable 10,117 10,724 13,488 17,735 18,192 23,044 28,498 34,107 37,303 34,658 Accrued expenses 21,528 29,709 28,834 25,961 26,552 28,588 30,000 30,980 44,158 47,438 Total current liabilities: 31,645 40,433 42,322 43,696 44,744 51,632 58,498 65,087 81,461 82,096 Post-retirement obligation 44,652 61,139 63,890 64,524 64,765 46,083 17,401 28,453 20,000 20,000 Long-term debt 112,194 72,367 200,128 200,066 200,000 200,000 200,000 0 Other long-term liabilities 5,503 4,459 3,515 2,157 1,402 6,661 27,276 0 Total liabilities: 193,994 178,398 309,855 310,443 310,911 304,376 303,175 93,540 101,461 102,096 Equity Total shareholders equity: 303,804 298,749 280,519 308,681 359,676 433,180 483,390 722,566 748,659 789,308 Total liabilities and equity: 497,798 477,147 590,374 619,124 670,587 737,556 786,565 816,106 850,120 891,404 BCF - KDN 16/20 11/18/08
  • 17. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Statement of Cash Flows Kaydon Corp Cash Flows 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Operating cash flow Net income 28,480 12,204 33,752 38,358 46,530 69,508 77,707 70,987 73,904 85,352 D&A 15,430 13,725 13,866 14,664 16,513 17,426 20,629 22,000 24,000 26,000 Accounting changes 13,222 5,033 Deferred taxes 9 787 8,401 7,009 5,551 9,889 18,223 Accounts receivable 13,191 1,087 6,084 2,144 7,030 2,469 10,469 3,052 8,141 4,411 Inventories 3,544 8,987 3,338 8,993 2,146 3,417 8,389 7,610 14,231 4,573 Other current assets 2,025 10,945 2,391 2,253 1,029 1,650 5,249 6,685 904 2,300 Accounts payable 844 109 2,485 3,817 2,130 4,627 4,464 3,379 5,425 2,645 Accrued expenses 7,497 487 3,055 46 17,565 1,053 4,102 10,890 3,269 3,280 Post-retirement oblig. 948 2,265 4,206 1,027 1,730 3,001 24,020 Total operating CF: 51,236 62,244 60,628 53,983 41,224 89,860 74,259 89,909 83,322 100,703 Investing cash flow ST investments 57,000 Capex 9,562 8,821 11,918 12,365 12,560 26,294 54,073 70,000 40,000 30,000 Acquisitions, net 54,274 5,104 3,864 32,574 54,869 Other 8,500 Total Investing CF: 63,836 13,925 11,918 16,229 20,014 26,294 174,442 70,000 40,000 30,000 Financing cash flow LT-debt payments 6,053 40,160 72,282 90 62 66 Dividends 14,596 14,616 14,017 13,541 13,528 13,530 14,354 15,000 15,750 16,538 Line of credit borrowing Common stock issuance 2,239 475 5,104 115 1,000 1,626 390 Stock repurchases 1,655 20 52,193 2,117 6,102 3,404 30,091 10,000 10,000 10,000 LT-debt issuance 70,750 192,674 940 Other Total financing CF: 50,685 54,321 59,286 15,633 19,632 15,374 44,055 25,000 25,750 26,538 FX effect 480 267 1,459 709 612 1,793 3,442 1,200 1,200 1,200 Net change in cash 37,605 6,269 109,455 22,830 42,218 49,985 140,796 3,891 18,772 45,365 Beginning cash 114,965 152,570 146,301 255,756 278,586 320,804 370,789 229,993 226,102 244,874 Ending cash 152,570 146,301 255,756 278,586 320,804 370,789 229,993 226,102 244,874 290,239 BCF - KDN 17/20 11/18/08
  • 18. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Working Capital Worksheet Kaydon Corp Working Capital Worksheet 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Sales 333,811 354,558 403,992 451,382 526,094 575,005 632,505 Cost of Sales 204,668 215,528 236,566 267,082 332,435 367,986 395,316 Working Capital Balances Accounts Receivable, net 48,786 50,869 54,066 67,574 70,626 78,768 83,179 Inventories 55,730 51,783 56,043 68,896 76,506 90,736 95,309 Other Current Assets 9,925 14,671 17,012 15,411 22,096 23,000 25,300 Total Non-Cash Current Assets: 114,441 117,323 127,121 151,881 169,228 192,504 203,788 Accounts Payable 17,735 18,192 23,044 28,498 31,877 37,303 34,658 Accrued Expenses 25,961 26,552 28,588 30,000 40,890 44,158 47,438 Total Non-Debt Current Liabilities: 43,696 44,744 51,632 58,498 72,767 81,461 82,096 NET WORKING CAPITAL / (DEFICIT) 70,745 72,579 75,489 93,383 96,461 111,043 121,692 (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital 1,834 2,910 17,894 3,078 14,582 10,649 Ratios and Assumptions, actual, not average Accounts Receivable, net (Collection period in days) 53.3 52.4 48.8 54.6 49.0 50.0 48.0 Inventories (Days) 99.4 87.7 86.5 94.2 84.0 90.0 88.0 Other Current Assets as % of Sales 3.0% 4.1% 4.2% 3.4% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% Accounts Payable (Days outstanding) 31.6 30.8 35.6 38.9 35.0 37.0 32.0 Accrued Liabilities as % of Cost of Sales 12.7% 12.3% 12.1% 11.2% 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% Cash Flows by Individual Accounts Accounts Receivable, net 2,083 3,197 13,508 3,052 8,141 4,411 Inventories 3,947 4,260 12,853 7,610 14,231 4,573 Other Current Assets 4,746 2,341 1,601 6,685 904 2,300 Accounts Payable 457 4,852 5,454 3,379 5,425 2,645 Accrued Liabilities 591 2,036 1,412 10,890 3,269 3,280 (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital 1,834 2,910 17,894 3,078 14,582 10,649 BCF - KDN 18/20 11/18/08
  • 19. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Ratios Q3'08 Ratio 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E Current Ratio 827.2% 603.6% 851.2% 899.5% 979.2% 964.3% 750.2% 689.1% 543.2% 552.8% Cash Ratio 482.1% 361.8% 604.3% 637.6% 717.0% 718.1% 490.6% 403.7% 306.9% 304.5% Cash per Share 5.09 4.88 8.94 8.01 9.24 10.66 8.28 7.69 7.35 7.35 Debt to Equity 36.9% 24.2% 71.3% 64.8% 55.6% 46.2% 41.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net Debt to Equity -13.3% -24.7% -19.8% -25.4% -33.6% -39.4% -18.0% -36.4% -33.4% -31.7% Debt to Capital 27.0% 19.5% 41.6% 39.3% 35.7% 31.6% 29.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net Debt to Capital -9.7% -19.9% -11.6% -15.4% -21.6% -27.0% -12.7% -36.4% -33.4% -31.7% ROE - Extended DuPont 15.9% 16.4% 18.9% 19.6% 19.8% 24.4% 24.6% 21.0% 19.8% 20.8% 57.4% 58.6% 49.8% 53.9% 52.9% 54.8% 57.4% 64.5% 67.6% 71.0% -0.1% 0.2% -0.6% -0.9% -0.1% 0.9% 1.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 163.9% 159.7% 210.5% 200.6% 186.4% 170.3% 162.7% 112.9% 113.6% 112.9% 63.0% 64.9% 65.0% 64.0% 67.1% 66.0% 64.9% 64.9% 65.0% 65.0% 9.5% 9.8% 13.8% 14.7% 13.2% 14.0% 13.8% 10.0% 9.9% 10.8% ROA 5.8% 6.1% 6.6% 7.4% 7.1% 8.2% 8.5% 8.9% 8.7% 9.6% ROCE 9.8% 10.5% 10.2% 11.4% 11.2% 14.4% 15.3% 14.7% 14.8% 16.2% Receivables Turn 7.4x 7.3x 6.5x 6.8x 7.0x 7.5x 6.7x 7.0x 7.3x 7.6x Collection Period 49.1 50.1 56.4 53.3 52.4 48.8 54.6 52.4 50.0 48.0 Inventory Turn 3.4x 3.9x 4.2x 3.7x 4.2x 4.2x 3.9x 3.5x 4.1x 4.1x Inventory Proc. Period 108.2 93.2 86.8 99.4 87.7 86.5 94.2 104.2 90.0 88.0 Payables Turn 18.4x 17.2x 14.0x 11.5x 11.8x 10.3x 9.4x 9.7x 9.9x 11.4x Payment Period 19.9 21.3 26.1 31.6 30.8 35.6 38.9 37.4 37.0 32.0 Cash Conversion Cycle 177.2 164.6 169.3 184.4 170.9 170.9 187.7 194.0 177.0 168.0 BCF - KDN 19/20 11/18/08
  • 20. BABSON Kaydon Corp. (KDN) COLLEGE FUND Valuation Price to Earnings Price 2007 2008 2009 $ 22.00 EPS 2.41 2.18 2.17 9.12X 10.10X 10.12X Price to Sales 2007 2008 2009 Sales/share 13.02 15.40 16.91 1.69X 1.43X 1.30X Enterprise Value to EBITDA 2007 2008 2009 Shares out 34,670 34,165 34,000 + Debt 200,000 0 0 - Cash 286,993 262,731 250,000 EV 675,753 488,894 498,000 EBITDA 131,892 132,301 137,699 5.12X 3.70X 3.62X Enterprise Value to Sales 2007 2008 2009 Shares out 34,670 34,165 34,000 + Debt 200,000 0 0 - Cash 286,993 262,731 250,000 EV 675,753 488,894 498,000 Sales 451,382 526,094 575,005 1.50X 0.93X 0.87X BCF - KDN 20/20 11/18/08