Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

Yellow River Basin: Living with
Scarcity

Claudia Ringler and Ximing Cai
et al.

Chiang Mai
Sep 18-20, 2009
College of Water Sciences, 1
BNU

PROJECT OBJECTIVES
Study water poverty, water availability
and access, water productivity, and
water and related institutions in the YRB
to develop and rank a series of high-
priority interventions aimed at
increasing water and food security for
the poor while maintaining
environmental sustainability

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Basin Area: 795,000 km2 (incl
inland basin of ~40,000 km2)
Pop: 120-200 million (150-250/km2)
River Length: 5,454 km
Elevation Drop: 4,480 m
GDP : US$88 billion
Cultiv land: ~12 million ha, 6-8 m
ha irrigated
Ningxia
Shaanxi Avg rainfall: 450-60 mm
Avg runoff: 58->53.5 BCM
GW: 11-14 BCM
Total volume: 71.9 BCM
Henan Per cap water: 590 m3
Sedim conc 35kg/m3

Water Balance in the YRB
KEY UPSTREAM BASINS
U/s: 31 BCM, M/s: 20 BCM, D/s: 2 BCM

Lanzhou upstream
Area: 222,551; 30%
Runoff: 313.1; 54%

Unit:
Area: km2
Runoff: ×108m3

Wei River
Area: 134,766; 18%
Runoff: 100.4; 17%
College of Water Sciences, BNU

Land cover map, YRB


Yellow River Basin population density

Water Balance in the YRB

Precipitation: 466 mm/a = 370 BCM/a
Potential Evap: 800-1000 mm/a in South
1800-2000 mm/a in North
Runoff: ~58 BCM/a (53.5 BCM/a in the updated
YRCC assessment)

Kuye River
Lanzhou upstream Wuding River Runoff:10.34;
Runoff: 364; Runof:14.1; Per.: 1.5%
Per.: 55.6% Per.: 2.2%

Sanchuan River
Runoff:6.63;
Per.: 1%
：
Unit：
×
Runoff:×108 m3

Wei River Yiluo River Qin River
Runoff:120.7; Runoff:33.1; Runoff:19.1;
Per.: 18.4% Per.: 5.% Per.: 2.9%

WP 2: Analysis of water availability and access
SWAT-BNU - Runoff percentage: 86.6%

Water Scarcity in the Yellow River Basin: Physical
Scarcity
Share of country total (%)
100%

80%

60%

40%
25%
17%
20%
2%
0%
Annual runoff Per capita water Water availability for
availability cultivated land

Key off-stream water uses (1998-2000)

Domestic
7%
Industry
12%

Agricult
81%

plus estimated 20 BCM needed for sediment flushing

YELLOW RIVER WATER USE BY SECTOR

Years Reach Total Agricultural Industrial Domestic
1988-1992a Upper 13.11 12.38 0.51 0.22
Middle 5.44 4.77 0.38 0.28
Lower 12.18 11.24 0.55 0.38
Basin 30.72 28.39 1.45 0.89

2002-
Upper 17.54 15.71 1.42 0.41
2004b
Middle 5.71 4.16 0.97 0.58
Lower 8.44 7.04 0.82 0.58
Basin 31.69 26.91 3.21 1.57

Difference Upper 34% 27% 179% 84%
Middle 5% -13% 155% 108%
Lower -31% -37% 49% 54%
Basin 3% -5% 121% 77%
a
Data from Chen (2002).
b
YRCC Water Resources Bulletins of 2002-2004.

Increasing Water Competition in China
(Similar trend in the YRB)

1 1
100% 2
11 13
80%
22

60% Domestic
97 Industry
88
40% Agriculture
65
20%

0%
1949 1978 2004


Main Irrigated Areas in the YRB


Slowdown in irrigated area expansion

7.5

1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010


Key crops (18 m ha)

Other
cereals Rice
15% 2%
Tubers
Wheat
10%
44%
Soybean
6%
Maize
23%


Days without discharge at the
downstream flow station
Unit: days
250

200

150

100

50

0
72

75

78

80

82

87

89

92

94

96

98

00

02

04
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20
Flow restoration benefit: US$2.5 billion (ind/dom/ag/env)

Agricultural Water Consumption
100 million cubic meters
350
286,1 299,6 292,5
300
249,8
250
200 177,7
150 122,3
100
50
0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2006

Water quality

About 5 BCM of wastewater
Rapid decline in water quality—at an
unknown cost to the basin
WQ above level III dropped from 80% in
the 1980s to 60% in the 1990s and less
than 20% by 2002 since then some
progress with WQ improvement
Wetlands shrank by 50% over the last
20 years (CP 2nd call project on topic)

Climate change analysis (SWAT)
200 Lanzhou 50
Wei 年平均降水距平百分率

40
150
P recipitatio n(m m )

30 5年滑动平均降水距平百分率
100
20
50 10

0 0

-50 -10

58

61

64

67

70

73

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19
-20
-100
-30
-150
-40
0

5

0

1975

0

5

1990

5

0
196

196

197

198

198

199

200
-50 年
(b) 10.0
2.0

1.5 9.5
Temperature(℃)

1.0 9.0
0.5
8.5
0.0
8.0
-0.5
7.5
-1.0
0

5

0

5

0

5

0

5

0

7.0
196

196

197

197

198

198

199

199

200

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4
(b) 1 95 1 96 1 96 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 98 1 98 1 99 1 99

Climate change analysis
Lanzhou
2000 兰州

1600 Baseline Overall lower runoff
2020s
despite additional
月流量(m /s)

1200 2050s
3

2080s precipitation under
800
Had SRES B2
400

0 Wei
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
250.0
(d)
Q（m3 /s）

Lanzhou 200.0
Observed Simulated

2010s 2020s
150.0

2030s 2050s

100.0

50.0

0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 Month

Results of irrigated and rainfed area

Crops Basin-wide Middle stream Downstream
Rice 25.2 13.0 12.3
AI Corn 540.2 254.3 284.9
(1000 ha) Wheat 1141.0 536.4 597.7
Soybean 149.6 80.6 69.0
Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0
AR Corn 68.8 30.3 37.9
(1000 ha) Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0
Soybean 30.1 14.3 15.8

28

Irrigation requirement

29

Results of irrigated and rainfed yield

Crops Basin-wide Mid-stream Downstream
Rice 5.4 5.5 5.3

YI Corn 5.3 5.0 5.7
(ton/ha) Wheat 3.7 2.8 4.4
Soybean 1.4 1.2 1.7
Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0

YR Corn 3.0 1.9 4.0
(ton/ha) Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0
Soybean 1.4 1.0 1.9

30

Results of WPI

Area Weighted WPI(kg/m3)
Region/Crops
Rice Corn Wheat Soybean
Basinwide average 0.50 0.97 1.39 0.26

standard deviation 0.25 0.32 0.51 0.13

Mid-stream 0.49 0.94 1.16 0.26


Downstream 0.51 0.99 1.57 0.27


32

Results of WPR

Area Weighted WPR(kg/m3)
Region/Crops
Rice Corn Wheat Soybean
Basinwide average - 1.09 - 0.41
standard deviation - 0.36 - 0.16
Middle stream - 0.68 - 0.28
Downstream - 1.41 - 0.52

34

WP3
Irrigated yield is significantly higher than
the rainfed yield for corn, and soybean in
different regions of the YRB ; however for
soybean in downstream, rainfed yield is
even higher than irrigated yield
WPI is slightly lower than WPR for corn
and soybean, which implies the irrigated
crops may not be as efficient as rainfed
crops with regard to water productivity for
particular crops in the YRB.

35

WP3
WPI and WPR vary spatially from upstream
to downstream with both climate and water
supply condition.
The water factor is particularly sensitive to
spatial scale, which reflects the impact of
water regulation over space in the YRB
through engineering measures
The water factor has stronger effect on both
crop yield and WP than the energy factor

36

WP3

Irrigation stabilizes the crop production
per unit of water consumption.
Croplands have higher water
consumption than urban lands but
lower than forest lands
Among the sub-basins, the midstream
region has more important agricultural
water management issues from the
perspective of both crop yield and WP

37

Basics--WATER
State Water Council is final authority for
water allocation
2002 Water Law, but few implementing
regulations -- Focus on river basin
management, water conservation,
environmental flows , among others
YRCC mandate for water allocation in
lower part of the basin, role only for
mainstream, not tributaries
Distorted incentives at irrigation district
level

1987 Water Allocation Agreement
(37BCM)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
G n

Sh i
rM a

in
Si ai

i/T g
Sh g

He i

He and n
Ni u

nx

x
ne x i

be on
ua

Sh na
s

on
gh

an

nj
an

In ng

aa

ia
ch
in
Q


Basics--FOOD
Government is pushing agriculture to
its limits: striving for continued food
self-sufficiency despite extremely
scarce resources
through large and growing
investments in R&D
direct income transfers to farmers
and subsidies

What limits higher
productivity/WUE?
Proximity to profitable non-farm
income reduces productivity even in
the highly favorable Southeast of
China
Vested interests, and lack of
integrated agriculture and water
resource policies are a further blow to
higher productivity


WP4 Measures to increase water
productivity and deal with water shortages

Reforming irrigation management
institutions
Reforming water pricing
Implementing water rights transfer
projects
Adopting water saving technology
Adopting agricultural technology to
increase productivity


Water Pricing Reform

In the past 15 years, water price in most ID has
increased;
Can water price be further increased?
- ID managers do not like increase
- There are potential negative impacts on farm
income and agricultural production
- Difficulty in collecting water fee
If water price does not change, farmers have no
incentive to increase water use efficiency
What kind of policies are needed for efficient
pricing policy?


Water Use and Incentives
Unit: m3/ha
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
Wheat Maize Rice

With incentive Without incentive

Water Productivity and Incentives
Unit: m3/ha
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
Wheat Maize Rice


Crop Yield and Incentives
Unit: kg/ha
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Wheat Maize Rice


Water Allocation among Regions

Upstream regions use more water than the
water quota allocated by YRCC; Salinity
issues related with water use volume
Downstream regions use less water than
the water quota allocated by YRCC:
Most are considering to build reservoirs to
store unused water
If the present allocation is not rational is it
possible to change the allocation?


WATER VERSUS AG POLICY –Zero-
sum game?
AGRICULTURE POLICY HURTING WATER:
fertilizer subsidies adversely impact water
quality
removal of agricultural land tax increased
difficulty to collect water service fee
WATER POLICY HURTING AGRICULTURE
New policy to flush silt out of the lower basin
highly effective, but irrigation intakes now
too high up in the river bed for water access
Policy to increase ISF to conserve water
resources hurts ID manager who depend on
large irrigation volumes for their income

Poverty headcount varies widely across
provinces in the YRB

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 51

Wheat yields are higher for the non-poor
than that for the poor living in irrigated
and non-irrigated villages


To what extent does access to water
reduce poverty?

Results of our multivariate analysis
suggest that, the probability of a
household being poor declines by 10.7
percentage points if the household lives
in an irrigated village in the YRB region
(probit regression model controlling for
household size, ownership of assets,
rainfall, and distance to facilities)
Non-farm income is key to pov reduction


Poverty Incidence
Unit: %
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
China China Ningxia Henan ID (NX- ID (HN-
(1996) (2001) (1996 ) (1996) 2001) 2001)


Poverty Distribution along canals in the YRB (2001)

Reach of IDs Poverty incidence (%)
Ningxia
Weining ID Upper 5.6
Lower 6.3
Qingtongxia ID Upper 3.2
Lower 9.4
Henan
Renminsh. ID Upper 16.0
Lower 4.9
Liuyuankou ID Upper 0
Lower 9.5

HH Characteristics by Income Class
Ningxia/Henan (2001)
Per Share of income (%) Share
Income capita of non-
group income Livesto Non- agri.
Crop
(yuan) ck agri labor
<625
381 80 7 12 3
(Poor1)
625~878
715 73 7 21 21
(Poor 2)
878~2500 1775 58 10 33 33

2500~4000 3083 49 11 40 42

>4000 6209 35 12 54 48

HH Characteristics by Income Class
(2001)
Cultivate
Number Labor Cultivated
Income HH d
of educatio land/perso
group size land/hh
labors/hh n (year) n (ha)
(ha)
<625 (Poor1) 4.3 2.9 5.4 0.7 0.18

625~878
4.9 3.0 7.0 0.7 0.09
(Poor 2)

878~2500 4.3 3.0 6.4 0.6 0.15

2500~4000 3.9 2.9 6.0 0.7 0.18

>4000 3.4 3.0 6.3 0.7 0.22

Basin Diagnostic Tour
Water scarcity considered the largest
problem for irrigation
Water fees and water quality are also
important
Increased competition with urban-
industrial and environmental water uses
Zero tillage as one strategy to save water
and labor, adoption for maize and wheat


Basin Diagnostic Tour
Most farmers are part-time [small land
area, many non-farm employment
opportunities]
Climate change potential future threat –
experience of more extreme cold events
during winter and reduced runoff despite
stable rainfall
Relatively low poverty in Henan and
Shandong provinces [downstream basin]


Pathway out of Poverty
Ningxia Shaanxi Henan
Non-farm employment 1 1 1
Agricultural profits 2 2 2

- Irrigation availability (1) (1) (1)

- Marketing (output) (2) (2) (2)

- Output/input price ratio (3) (3) (3)
Education 3 3 3
Transportation 4 4 4

Who Uses Water more Efficiently and
Effectively?
Unit: m3/ha
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

Water Allocation Priority


Domestic 1 1 1

Industry 3 2 2

Agriculture 2 3 3

Environment 4 4 4

Review paper on past and
current interventions
From water supply to water demand
management
From resettlement (started anew in areas
with extreme water shortages)
..To water use rights trading (not exactly..)
From agricultural land tax to direct transfers
for farmers
And a variety of water-conservation and
expansion technologies (plastic sheets,
water harvesting, zero till, SRI, etc. etc.)
The government is willing to try anything that
works and does not interfere with too many
vested interests

Environmental Poverty Food
Low cost Reach
impact impact security

HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS
Water pollution
control
Yield
improvement,
including for

drought stress
Water
management
---in particular
Water rights and
markets
/?
----ID
management /?
support

----Water pricing /?
Water
monitoring
system
Resettlement
Off-farm
opportunity
development
?
South-to-North
transfer ?
Irrigation
infrastructure
investment /?
(Canals, etc.)
On-farm
irrigation
technology /?
investment
Virtual water
Education/Family
planning

Environmental Poverty Food
Low cost Reach

impact impact security
Water pollution
control
Yield
improvement,
including for
drought stress
Water
management
---in particular
Water rights and
markets
/?
----ID
management /?
support

----Water pricing /?
Water
monitoring
system
Resettlement
Off-farm
opportunity
development
?
South-to-North
transfer ?
Irrigation
infrastructure
investment /?
(Canals, etc.)
On-farm
irrigation
technology /?
investment
Virtual water
Education/Family
planning

Study of Alternative
Interventions

Modeling tools (YRCC HYDROLOGIC
MODEL, SWAT, MAS)
Study other strategies qualitatively
And others combining the basin model
with IMPACT or CAPSIM


Multi-Agent System Model

A2 A2 52 general agents
0 1
5 reservoir agents
A1 A2 A2
A6
9 4 2 3 ecosystem agents
A1
A7 8
A2 R3
A8 A2
5
A1 A1 6
A9 5 7
A4 A4
4 9
A1 A2
A1 3
4
R1 A1 R2 A1 6
A2 A2 A4 A5 E2
9
A2 R5
2 3 7 5 1
A3 8
A5 A1 A3 1

1 4 A4 A4 A4 E1 A5 E3
A3 A4 R4
2 3 8 2
A1 A3 0 0
A4 A3 2
A4
A1 5
A3 A4 7
0 A3 9 1
A5
A2 A3 3
A3 0
A3 6 8
A4
6
A3
7

Mainstream inflow source
Ai General agents
Tributary inflow source
Ai General agents with source flow
Mainstream
Ri Reservoir agents Tributary
69
Ei Ecosystem agents

Apply MAS framework to YRB

Yellow River Basin
MAS-Modeling

Unmanaged YRCC YRCC Water
Scenario Water Right Water Market
Permit

70

Conclusions

Highly water scarce basin, but still room
for water conservation in irrigation and
elsewhere
Key for water conservation will be
enhanced policy and institutions,
including for WQ
Some scope for further yield
improvement
Limited scope for irrigation expansion,
constant agricultural water use policy,
policy to avoid further declines in
agricultural area (122 million mu red line)

FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS

1. Relation between water and poverty in the
Yellow River Basin (Akhter, Jinxia, and
Wahid)
2. Impact of climate change on water and
food supply in the Yellow River Basin
(Zongxue, Tingju)
• First journal article in print in Chinese Journal
• Contribution to 2nd Forum and to 5th Yellow
River Forum
3. Role of water trading for alleviating water
stress in the Yellow River Basin
(Yunpeng, Claudia, and Yan)


4. Water productivity under water scarcity
in the Yellow River Basin (Ximing, Yi-
Chen, Jianshi)
5. Drought risk management in the Yellow
River Basin (Tingju)
6. Water supply and demand and
implications for poverty alleviation in
the YRB (Zongxue, Jingzong, and
Tingju)
7. High-impact interventions for the YRB
(Yunpeng, Claudia, Jinxia)


8. Application of Multi-Agent System (MAS)
Modeling to the YRB (Ximing and others)
9. Drought risk management in the Yellow
River Basin (Tingju)
10.The role of institutions in alleviating
water poverty in the YRB (Jinxia and
others)
11.Book chapter for Basin Focal Program
Study

Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

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