Presented at the Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

1. Yellow River Basin Focal Project
BFP Program Workshop
February 3
Cali,
Cali Colombia

2. OUTLINE
Overview of the YRB
Key water-food challenges
y g
YRB Work Packages
Project implementation challenges
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

3. Basin Area: 795,000 km2
Population: 110 million
River Length: 5,454 km
Elevation Drop: 4,480 m
GDP : US$88 billion
Cultivated land: ~12 million ha
Avg rainfall: 450 mm
g
Avg runoff: 58->53 BCM
Ground water: 13.9 BCM
Total volume: 71.9 BCM
Per cap water: 650 m3
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

4. KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES
Intense urban-industrial development along
the Yellow River has had serious
consequences for water and food security
and environmental sustainability y
Focus on reallocating water to the
environment and new sediment flushing
policies t k water away f
li i take t from irrigation
i i ti
New estimates reduced water availability,
thus 1987 province level water allocation
province-level
needs to be revised – current negotiations
will likely lead to (sub-optimal) proportional
reduction
d ti
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

5. KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES
Irrigation policies in some places support
increased WUE, in others they don’t
Ag water saving strategies work ( y)
g g g (only)
when they also save labor--at least d/s--
due to significant off-farm opportunities
Hypothesis: Poverty is concentrated in
upland/upstream rainfed areas without
non-farm income opportunities
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

6. KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES
Large sediment erosion in the basin
g
affect water availability for other uses
and require US$ billions of investment
into dams and d k
i t d d dykes
Increasing water quality problems
reduce ater availability
red ce water a ailabilit for irrigation
Very little knowledge on future impact
of climate change
Very little knowledge on benefit of
water use in domestic-industrial uses
domestic industrial
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

7. PROJECT OBJECTIVES
Study water p
y poverty, water availability
y, y
and access, water productivity, and
water and related institutions in the YRB
to develop and rank a series of high-
priority interventions aimed at
increasing water and food security for
the poor while maintaining
environmental sustainability
i t l t i bilit
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

8. PROJECT PARTNERS
• Yellow River Conservancy Commission
y
[WP2/WP5]
• Beijing Normal University [WP2]
• China Center for Agricultural Policy
[WP4]
• University of Illinois [WP3]
• Int. Food Policy Research Institute
[WP1/WP6]
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

9. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

10. Basin Diagnostic Tour [lower
basin]
Water scarcity considered the largest problem
for irrigation
g
Water fees and water quality are also important
Increased competition with urban-industrial and
environmental water uses
Zero tillage as one strategy to save water and
labor, adoption for maize and wheat
Most f
M t farmers are part-time [
t ti [small l d area,
ll land
many non-farm employment opportunities]
Climate change potential future threat –
experience of more extreme cold events during
i f t ld t d i
winter and reduced runoff despite stable rainfall
Relatively low poverty in Henan and Shandong
provinces [d
i [downstream b i ]
t basin]
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

11. PROJECT DETAILS
Implementation Process
WP0 Phase I
• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour
-Alternative intervention impacts, and CBA -
• Project Design
• Conceptual Framework
• Development of Tools & Methods
STA
STA
WP SCENARI ANALYSIS
AKEHOLDER DIALOGUE
AKEHOLDER DIALOGUE
e
P5
WP1 Water Ranking of
WP2 Water alternative
Poverty Availability
Mapping & Scenario
and Access outcomes to
Analysis
y
IO
ns,
determine
d t i
Phase II
WP3 Water Productivity High Potential
Analysis – Basin Model Interventions
WP4 Institutional Analysis
WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation
Platform SHARED VISION MODELING
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

12. WORK PACKAGES
1) Assessment of water poverty in the YRB
2) Analysis of water availability and access
3) Analysis of agricultural water productivity
4) Institutional analysis
5) I t
Intervention analysis
ti l i
6) Development and application of the
knowledge base
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

13. WP1 Methodology: Measuring
Poverty
Three poverty measures will be used:
p y
• the headcount index
• the poverty gap index
• the squared poverty gap index
The poverty measures will be used to
develop and map poverty profiles of
d l d fil f
population at the basin and sub-basin
levels,
levels which are a useful way of
summarizing information on the levels of
poverty and characteristics of the poor.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

14. WP1 Methodology: Assessing Water
Poverty
The framework to analyze the linkage
y g
between poverty and water will involve
multivariate regression analysis through
modeling the determinants of household
f
welfare
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

15. WP1 Methodology: Poverty Map
et odo ogy o e ty ap
Use statistical, small area estimation
statistical small-area
(SAE), techniques
• Produces readily interpretable estimates
• Statistical precision can be gauged
• Encouraging results to date
g g
• But, extensive data requirements
[combination of household-level data of
Population Census and household
expenditure data]
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

16. WP2 - Methodologies
g
Large body of information on
[spatial/temporal] distribution of water
availability and water h
il bilit d t hazards d
Use SWAT-BNU to estimate rainfall-runoff
[sediment and human interactions]
Will feed into aggregated existing Yellow
River Hydrologic Model
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

17. Kuye River
Lanzhou upstream Wuding River Runoff:10.34;
Runoff: 364; Runof:14.1; Per.: 1.5%
Per.: 55.6% Per.: 2.2%
Sanchuan River
Runoff:6.63;
Per.: 1%
Unit：
Runoff:×108 m3
Wei River Yiluo River Qin River
Runoff:120.7; Runoff:33.1; Runoff:19.1;
Per.: 18.4% Per.: 5.% Per.: 2.9%
SWAT-BNU - Runoff percentage: 86.6%

18. Human interventions reduce water
availability over time
1000
Huayuankou
900 Lijin
1950s~60s Avg.
800
Annual Runoff (10 m3)
1980s~90s Huayuankou Avg.
1980s~90s Lijin A
1980 90 Liji Avg.
700
8
600
500
R
400 30% off
300 60% off
200
100
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

19. WP3: Combined Modeling Framework

20. WP3 Methodologies –
Water Productivity
WP for different sectors
(water transfer issues)
WP for upstream vsdownstream regions
(water allocation issues)
WP for areas with different levels of incomes
(p
(poverty issues)
y )
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

21. WP4 FRAMEWORK
(1) Evolution and determinants
Water management & Water allocation, water rights
institutional arrangement & water pricing policies
(2) Impacts
Access to Water Food Environment
Poverty
y security security
water productivity
Other socio-economic, institutional and physical factors
(3) Possible water policy and institutional changes

22. WP4 Outputs…
Outputs
Documentation of policy objectives, policy
p y j p y
instruments, and policy actions where these
affect the access and productivity of water,
p
poverty alleviation, food security and
y , y
environmental security
Documentation of legal frameworks,
frameworks
institutional arrangements and governance
processes that effect access and productivity of
water,
water poverty alleviation, food security and
alleviation
environmental security
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

23. WP4 Outputs…
Documentation of institutional
innovations that would be needed to
unlock water productivity p
p y potential
needed to alleviate poverty and
enhancing food and environmental
security
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

24. WP5: Intervention Analysis
L a n d u s e / c ro p p in g
p a tte rn s
YRCC & SW AT
W a te r
A c c o u n tin g W a te r
E n v iro n m e n ta l flo w s p r o d u c tiv it y S C E N A R IO
W a te r [e c o n o m ic &
p h y s ic a l] A N A L Y S IS
a c c o u n tin g &
Institution & Policy Dialogue
A g ric u ltu ra l
Irrig a tio n w a te r L iv e s to c k
d e v e lo p m e n t a v a ila b ility & Irrig a te d c ro p s
access R a in fe d c ro p s
(F is h )
N o n a g ric u ltu ra l
w a te r d e m a n d
E c o n o m ic -
ns
In s titu tio n a l- W a te r
In s titu tio n a l a n a ly s is p o v e rty H IG H
A g r o n o m ic -
Im p a c ts P R IO R IT Y
M a c ro /S e c to ra l a n d E q u a tio n
d is trib u te d IN T E R -
T ra d e p o lic ie s s y s te m s by gender and
V E N T IO N S
in c o m e g ro u p
P o v e rty M a p p in g
K n o w le d g e b a s e
S H A R E D V IS IO N M O D E L IN G / IN F O R M A T IO N
S H A R IN G – / R E S U L T D IS S E M IN A T IO N

25. WP 5 – Methodologies
Identification of high-impact interventions
high impact
through scenario analysis
Including trade and g
g general agricultural
g
policies that relate to irrigated agriculture
Analyzing alternative province-level water
allocations and alternative sectoral water
ll ti d lt ti t l t
allocations
Shared vision modeling
• 3 policy dialogues: U/s, M/s and D/s to discuss
scenarios and model parameters
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

26. WP6: Knowledge Base and Evaluation
Platform
Analytical Tool Pool Basin
Knowledge and Databases
SWAT-BNU / YRCC diagnostic
Biophysical, socioeconomic, water poverty,
hydrology & Economic- water productivity – GIS platform study
hydrologic water modeling
Poverty Mapping / Capacity
Regression Analysis Spatial
p Statistical Qualitative
data surveys / data building
Institutional Analysis
Policy/Investment Analysis Tabular data
Field visits
SCENARIO & Consultation Stakeholder
INVESTMENT dialogue
ANALYSIS
Development
policy/
High Priority Interventions for enhanced Outreach and investment
food and water security
ater sec rit Communication
Comm nication Processes

27. WP6 - Potential datasets
Agroecological zones and potential
(physiography, climate, soil constraints)
Natural resources (rivers, catchements, wetlands,
forests,
forests protected areas ecoregions etc)
areas,
Land cover and land cover change
Production systems (c op a d/pas u e/ es oc
oduc o sys e s (cropland/pasture/livestock
distribution, irrigated/rainfed production)
Population density and market access
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

28. WP6 - Potential datasets
Poverty maps and water-related poverty indicators
(WP1)
Ag. Water availability maps under various level of
hydroclimatic conditions intervention and
conditions,
investment scenarios (WP2)
Water productivity maps for individual rainfed and
irrigated crops (WP3)
Environmental and socioeconomical indicators
under different interventions (WP5)
Models and tools from this project?
TO BE LINKED TO DIGITAL YELLOW RIVER
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

29. Land cover - GLC2000

30. Population
Density
Humidity

31. Transportation/Utility network

32. Crop Suitability maps - rainfed
maize and rice

33. On the Adverse Challenges Side
Hydrology: YRCC has no mandate on tributary
flow data
Poverty – Water agencies have no specific
mandate related to poverty
Socioeconomic data availability seems now
more diffi lt t obtain b t would b required
difficult to bt i but ld be i d
for the among economists most accepted
poverty mapping method (Small Area
Estimation Technique)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

34. On the Adverse Challenges Side
While sub-basin poverty lines would be
necessary, Chinese Gov policy only supports
use of 1 national poverty line
Domestic and industrial water benefit curve
estimates will likely need to be synthesized
Water
W t agencies have no mandate over and d
i h d t d do
not want to increase access to rainfed areas,
where the poorest likely reside
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

35. On the Positive Challenges Side
Need to re-negotiate provincial water allocation –
but no information on provincial water use benefits
Large demand for knowledge on pro-poor water
savings and willingness to experiment with water
rights trading
Large interest in outcomes of tradeoff analysis
among water-using sectors
Several Chinese Government policy changes
[trade,
[trade ag policies] that allow for useful scenario
analysis
Need for information on climate change impacts
g p
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE