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SPRING 2011 | RETAIL




UNITED STATES

HIGHLIGHTS




                                                Retail Real Estate Faring Better,
                                                But Many Challenges Still Exist
                                                ROSS J. MOORE Chief Economist | USA
MARKET INDICATORS
                                                Compared to the dismal conditions of two years ago, the retail leasing market is considerably
                          Spring        Fall
                           2011        2011*    better as the first half of 2011 comes to a close. Yet, for many retailers and landlords, the retail
                                                landscape still remains very challenging. While retail sales have been inching higher for much
           VACANCY                              of the past year, the gains have been exceptionally uneven with discount and high end retailers
                                                thriving, while mid-range retailers continue to struggle in the face of lackluster job growth,
  NET ABSORPTION
                                                stagnant wages, restrictive credit conditions, higher input costs, falling house values and
    CONSTRUCTION                                sharply higher gas prices. However, the economy continues to grow, new entrants are entering
                                                the market and many existing retailers are poised for growth.
      RENTAL RATE

         *Projected, relative to prior period   LATEST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS TO 60.8 IN MAY
                                                FROM 66.0 IN APRIL
                                                Reflecting the fragile nature of the U.S. consumer, the Conference Board’s Consumer
                                                Confidence Index (CCI) still remains well below its long-term average. For the first five months
                                                of 2011 the CCI has vacillated between 60 and 70. While this represents a considerable
                                                improvement from the lows experienced in 2009, it is still below 90 that is regarded as a
U.S. RETAIL MARKET
SUMMARY STATISTICS, Q1 2011                     healthy level.

Vacancy Rate: 10.88%
 Change from Q4 2010: 0.19                        U.S. RETAIL REAL ESTATE MARKET, Q3 2009 – Q1 2011

Absorption:                                                             8                                                    11.5                 Tepid demand is
1.8 Million Square Feet                                                                                                      11.0                 keeping vacancy
                                                                        6
                                                  Million Square Feet




                                                                                                                                                  rates elevated, but
                                                                                                                             10.5                 over the coming
New Construction:                                                       4
                                                                                                                                    Vacancy (%)




                                                                                                                             10.0                 quarters vacancies
2.0 Million Square Feet
                                                                        2                                                                         are sure to shrink.
                                                                                                                             9.5
Under Construction:                                                     0
4.0 Million Square Feet                                                                                                      9.0
                                                                        -2                                                   8.5
Asking Rents Per Square Foot
                                                                        -4                                                   8.0
Shopping Center Space: $15.86                                                 Q3     Q4      Q1     Q2      Q3   Q4    Q1
 Change from Q4 2010: -1.15%                                                 2009           2010                      2011
                                                                                    Absorption     Completions   Vacancy
                                                  Source: CoStar, Colliers Research




www.colliers.com
HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES



 UNITED STATES | SHOPPING CENTER MARKET STATISTICS

                                        INVENTORY*             NEW           UNDER        VACANCY         VACANCY        ABSORPTION   QUOTED RENT     YTD CHANGE
                                        MAR. 31, 2011        SUPPLY       CONSTRUCTION    RATE (%)        RATE (%)         Q1 2011     (USD PSF)        IN RENT
 MARKET                                     (SF)           Q1 2011 (SF)       (SF)       DEC. 31, 2010   MAR. 31, 2011      (SF)      MAR. 31, 2011       (%)
 Atlanta, GA                             141,927,000                 0       329,571          14.70           14.40        401,566         13.33         -1.2
 Bakersfield, CA                           8,902,000                 0         35,000          8.30            8.50         31,173         15.27          1.2
 Baltimore, MD                            47,368,000            20,904         28,555          7.50            7.90        -99,930         18.58          0.5
 Boise, ID                                12,494,000             8,000          6,000         12.00           11.90         11,413         12.27         -0.4
 Boston, MA                               86,977,000             7,200       135,000           7.00            6.90        169,961         15.48         -3.0
 Charleston, SC                           12,770,000            11,500          4,860         11.00           10.00        135,652         13.62         -0.1
 Charlotte, NC                            52,259,000            70,000              0         11.90           12.10        -80,779         13.00         -0.8
 Chicago, IL                             164,143,000            47,000              0         12.40           12.20        217,640         15.87          2.5
 Cincinnati, OH                           35,099,000                 0              0         14.30           14.40        -47,692         10.88         -3.3
 Cleveland, OH                            49,571,000            20,966              0         12.40           12.90       -127,812         11.25         -2.2
 Columbia, SC                             15,512,000                 0              0          8.30            8.20           5,675        11.42         -3.4
 Columbus, OH                             29,726,000            67,600         15,318         13.60           13.70         82,926         12.70          4.3
 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX                    151,862,000             6,400       195,595          13.10           13.30       -108,591         13.14          1.0
 Denver, CO                               70,221,000          206,930        280,303          10.50           10.40        314,098         14.10         -1.9
 Detroit, MI                              69,313,000             7,250         33,644         16.10           15.90         31,584         12.56          1.2
 Fresno, CA                               24,904,000                 0              0         11.20           11.50       -110,011         13.26         -2.9
 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward Co., FL           48,363,000                 0              0         10.50           11.00        -84,391         17.34         -0.4
 Greenville/Spartanburg, SC               29,238,000          187,545          28,800         11.90           11.50        230,911          9.44         -1.8
 Hartford, CT                             41,858,000            90,500         18,742          8.60            8.70         27,413         13.70          0.9
 Hawaii                                   17,296,045                 0              0          4.10            3.90           2,173        32.58          1.6
 Houston, TX                             151,704,000            48,600       124,211          10.40           10.30        155,333         14.07         -1.0
 Indianapolis, IN                         39,741,000             9,000              0         12.90           12.90       -138,163         11.76         -1.0
 Jacksonville, FL                         35,476,000                 0         23,495         13.60           13.00        108,301         13.74         -0.4
 Kansas City, MO-KS                       39,386,000                 0         11,060         15.10           14.60           8,368        11.79          0.6
 Las Vegas, NV                            49,962,000                 0         29,400         15.40           15.90       -208,755         17.33         -3.7
 Little Rock, AK                          14,963,000                 0              0          8.20            8.20        -33,883          9.20          5.9
 Long Island, NY                          50,013,000           284960          44907           4.70            4.90        317,357         24.04         -0.7
 Los Angeles – Inland Empire, CA          84,842,000            32,554         69,383         11.60           11.80       -216,872         18.05          1.0
 Los Angeles, CA                         146,699,000             4,745       101,507           6.90            6.70       -123,454         23.11         -3.3
 Louisville, KY                           27,729,000               405          5,500         12.70           11.60        301,718         10.88         -2.8
 Memphis, TN                              30,607,000               313              0         12.50           13.00        -38,858         10.66         -2.1
 Miami/Dade County, FL                    44,299,000                 0         52,780          6.50            6.10        153,626         21.65         -2.0
 Milwaukee, WI                            33,572,000             9,140              0         11.50           11.90        -14,006         12.06         -2.1
 Minneapolis, MN                          53,827,000             1,479       190,000           9.60            9.70       -114,756         13.51         -2.2
 Nashville, TN                            30,068,000                 0              0         10.70           10.60         89,907         13.62         -0.4
 New Jersey - Northern                    91,183,000            37,974       227,956           8.70            8.90        -70,824         19.72         -0.2
 Oakland/East Bay, CA                     41,526,000             4,500         39,078          7.30            7.10         89,027         21.65         -3.0
 Oklahoma City, OK                        29,157,000            25000         257541          11.20            11.2          -7823         10.12          0.3
 Omaha, NB                                16,180,000            43000               0         12.10            12.2          23315         11.04         -4.3
 Orange County, CA                        63,238,000                 0         15,000          6.60            6.20        199,313         22.54         -3.0
 Orlando, FL                              62,960,000            18,038         36,218         11.80           12.00        -55,940         15.34         -0.8
 Palm Beach County, FL                    35,726,000                 0              0         11.30           11.20        108,839         17.53         -1.7
 Philadelphia, PA                        149,415,000            54,824       578,604           9.70            9.60        142,191         14.38         -1.0
 Phoenix, AZ                             103,779,000             1,504         51,284         15.30           16.00       -430,105         14.89         -3.0
 Portland, OR                             33,932,000            24,000       276,286           8.10            8.50        -32,818         18.20         -0.8
 Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC           37,847,000          345,933        145,165           8.90            8.50        417,597         14.33         -5.4
 Reno, NV                                 10,337,000                 0              0         14.60           14.60         11,608         15.89         -1.1
 Sacramento, CA                           50,407,000                 0              0         13.80           13.80        -31,821         17.55         -2.2
 San Diego, CA                            54,688,000            34,288          3,500          7.70            7.70         45,320         21.25         -0.8
 San Francisco, CA                        10,181,000                 0              0          4.80            5.10        -45,140         28.43         -5.9
 San Jose/South Bay, CA                   31,666,000            32,067       137,177           7.30            7.20         13,033         26.22         -3.1
 Savannah, GA                              6,747,000                 0         36,023          8.00            7.80         18,423         14.75          2.0
 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA                  56,006,000             8,288         45,987         10.40           10.70        -74,620         18.25         -0.7
 St. Louis, MO-KS                         52,864,000            14,947       231,535          11.00           10.80        157,975         12.41         -0.9
 Stockton, CA                             18,982,000                 0              0         11.10           11.30        -20,722         15.35         -1.7
 Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL                 87,569,000            85,781              0         11.00           11.00        122,147         13.27         -0.9
 Washington, DC                           83,843,000          144,734          51,353          7.40            7.50        -54,994         22.67          1.3
 Westchester County, NY                   31,712,978                 0       152,900           6.40            6.40         -5,649         18.62          0.0
 U.S. TOTAL/AVERAGE                    3,070,924,045        2,017,869      4,049,238          10.69           10.88      1,767,174         15.86         -1.15

*Community and Neighborhood Centers. Source: CoStar, Colliers Research


P. 2   | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2010 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES


Consumer confidence is a key variable which       U.S. RETAIL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE, 1999-2011
can act as an important barometer for retail-
ers and landlords. The soft labor market and                                  50                                                             46.8
still-uncertain economic backdrop are both                                    40
                                                                                                                                                       40.0

preventing consumers from increasing their                                                                                                                                                                      33.4
                                                                                                        30.4                                                              29.0
                                                                              30                                                                                                                      27.2
spending behavior. Until consumers feel more                                                                                       21.1
                                                                                                                                                    23.0
                                                                                                                                                              20.0
confident about job security and see a drop in                                20               18.0                                       17.1




                                                   Annual Total Returns (%)
                                                                                                                           13.7                                   11.8 13.4      13.5                        12.6
                                                                                    9.6
gas and food prices, it is hard to foresee the                                 10            7.8      6.7                                                                                                                 4.51**
CCI moving above the 60 to 70 level. At these                                                                                                                                                                          1.0*
                                                                               0
levels, most consumers will be hesitant to
                                                                                                                                                                                           -4.1
make big purchases and will be preoccupied                                    -10
                                                                                                                                                                                                   -10.9
with a search for value at the best possible                                  -20    -11.8                                                                                         -15.8
price.
                                                                              -30
                                                                                                                                                 Private Equity        Public Equity
UNEMPLOYMENT IS EXPECTED                                                      -40
                                                                                                                                                                                                  -48.4
TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH                                                    -50
                                                                                    1999     2000     2001                        2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009                                     2010      2011
AT LEAST 2015
U.S. unemployment is forecast to finish the           *YTD Q1 returns only **YTD March returns only
                                                      Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts
year at 8.6 percent and is not expected to
drop below 7.0 percent until 2015 (IHS Global
Insight). The May jobs report shows the
national unemployment rate was 9.1 percent,      With so many headwinds, the retail landscape the Federal Reserve shows that outstanding
with many states and metros still registering    remains a broad mix of winners and losers. commercial loans and industrial leases have
double-digit unemployment. The latest data       Bankruptcies continue to be a feature of an increased for the seventh consecutive month,
shows stubbornly high unemployment rates in      uncertain market landscape. In the past year after shrinking for much of 2008, 2009 and
states such as Nevada, California, Michigan      the market has had to digest many retailers 2010. Publicly traded retailers have also seen
and Florida in particular. Major metropolitan    seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a surge in their share price, allowing many to
areas with double-digit unemployment rates       including Borders Group, Blockbuster Video, raise new equity and once again have access
include Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los       Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea (A&P), Sbarro to the capital markets. However, small busi-
Angeles, Memphis, Miami, Sacramento, San         Pizza and recently, the Perkins & Marie nesses—often family-owned—continue to
Jose and Tampa.                                  Callender’s restaurant chains. These bank- face a very restrictive lending environment,
                                                 ruptcies are primarily due to competition from restricting new concepts and franchise
A weak labor market is not the only factor       wholesale clubs, the entry of drug stores in opportunities.
negatively impacting consumer spending.          new retail categories and the continued
The latest Commerce Department data shows        expansion of supercenters. Rising input costs, After a surge in store closings in 2008 and
personal incomes are up 4.4 percent for the      technology and changing spending habits have 2009, retailers’ shutting stores appears to ave
year ending April; however, real disposable      also contributed. These most recent bankrupt- moderated. Data from the International
incomes are up a more modest 1.2 percent.        cies come on the heels of Circuit City and Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) indicates
With a relatively weak labor market, incomes     Linens ’n Things,
after inflation are unlikely to grow any more    both of which filed
than 1.0 or 2.0 percent. This is a significant   for Chapter 11             RETAIL SPACE DELIVERIES, 2000-2011
headwind, and not one that is expected to        protection in 2008,
                                                                                300
disappear anytime soon.                          but also have yet to
                                                 lease up many of the           250
Simultaneously, based on the last few months,    empty stores scat-
the savings rate appears to have leveled out     t e re d a c ro ss t h e
                                                                                                            Million Square Feet




                                                                                200
near 5.0 percent. For the past year the          country.
                                                                                                                                  150
savings rate has ranged between 5.0 and 6.0
percent. According to statistics from the U.S.   One positive change                                                              100
Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal        over the past 12
savings rate in the U.S. hovered in the 0.0      months has been the                                                               50
percent to 1.0 percent range from 2005 to        gradual return of
early 2008. While this newfound prudence is      credit in the wake of                                                              0
                                                                                                                                          2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
something that is good for consumers in the      the global financial                                         *Future deliveries based on current under-construction buildings
long run, it is yet another factor behind        crisis of 2008/2009.                                         Source: CoStar

reduced consumer spending.                       May 2011 data from

                                                                                                                                                                                   COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL |                    P. 3
HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES


                                                                                                                    shopping centers being anchored by more
 YEAR-TO-DATE SALES ENDING APRIL 2011 – U.S. CONSUMER
                                                                                                                    stable retailers such as grocery and drug
                                                                                                       ANNUAL       stores, vacancies remain elevated by historic
                                                               2011                 2010             CHANGE (%)     standards.
 All Stores                                                  1,471,037            1,361,222               8.1
 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers                               268,412              234,189              14.6       With retail vacancies staying stubbornly high,
       Gasoline Stations                                       166,213              142,195              16.9       a significant number of markets still have
                                                                                                                    retail vacancy rates above the 12-percent
 All Stores less Automotive                                   1,036,412             984,838               5.2
                                                                                                                    mark. Phoenix, Detroit and Las Vegas in
       Food and Beverage Stores                                195,947              187,111               4.7
                                                                                                                    particular have vacancies over 15 percent, but
         Grocery Stores                                        177,249              168,767               5.0
                                                                                                                    in descending order all of the following
 Health and Personal Care Stores                                 90,433               85,523              5.7       markets have vacancis of 12 percent or
 All Stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies                  750,032              712,204               5.3       higher: Reno (14.6%), Kansas City (14.6%),
       Building Material and Garden Equipment                    87,287               84,913              2.8       At l a n t a ( 1 4 .4 % ) , C i n c i nn a t i ( 1 4 .4 % ) ,
       Stores                                                                                                       Sacramento (13.8%), Columbus (13.7%),
       General Merchandise Stores                              191,726              186,735               2.7       Dallas/Ft. Worth (13.3%), Jacksonville
         Department Stores (excluding leased                     53,224               54,393             -2.1       (13.0%), Memphis (13.0%), Cleveland (12.9%),
         departments)                                                                                               Indianapolis (12.9%), Chicago (12.2%), Omaha
       Clothing and Accessories Stores                           66,150               62,752              5.4       (12.2%) and Charlotte (12.1%). Cities that
       Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and              58,759               58,601              0.3       have seen vacancies drop below 12 percent in
       Appliance Stores                                                                                             the last year include Bakersfield (8.5%),
          Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores                   27,757               27,720              0.1       Fresno (11.5%), Greenville/Spartanburg
          Electronics and Appliance Stores                       31,002               30,881              0.4       (11.5%), St. Louis 10.8%), and Houston
 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores                    25,935               24,769              4.7
                                                                                                                    (10.3%).
 Miscellaneous Store Retailers                                   35,778               33,211              7.7
                                                                                                                    Some of the strongest U.S. markets in terms
 Nonstore Retailers                                            126,681              111,267              13.9
                                                                                                                    of low vacancy are those that are land-
 Food Services and Drinking Places                             157,716              149,956               5.2       constrained and have seen a pronounced
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. All values are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted.   bounce-back in their local economy. San
                                                                                                                    Francisco, a city of just 49 square miles with
that a total of 146,000 stores closed in both                Honolulu (Waikiki), Seattle, Greenwich,                only a handful of neighborhood/community
2008 and 2009, while preliminary data                        Washington, D.C., San Francisco, San Jose              centers, serves as a poster child for this
suggests 2010 closings fell to approximately                 (Santana Row) and Miami continue to perform            scenario with a vacancy rate of just 5.1%.
130,000. This number is expected to stay                     better than their suburban counterparts.               That being said, there were a number of
near this level, highlighting the challenging                                                                       markets that recorded vacancy levels of 7.0%
nature of retail.                                            The average rent for Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue          or less—namely Los Angeles (6.7%), Miami/
                                                             surged over the past year, rising by $900.00           Dade County (6.1%), Boston (6.9%), Hawaii
URBAN RETAIL                                                 to register $2,150.00 per square foot. New             (3.9%), Long Island (4.9%), Orange County
                                                             York’s Madison Avenue also jumped higher,              (6.2%) and Westchester County (6.4%).
Urban retail continues to be a bright spot
                                                             increasing by $118.00 to average $708.00 per
relative to suburban retail—however, even the
                                                             square foot. Storefront retail rents on Los            OCCUPANCY GROWTH/
country’s premier streets are finding leasing
                                                             Angeles’ Rodeo Drive largely held steady at            ABSORPTION TRENDS
markets fairly challenging. New York, and in
                                                             $425.00 per square foot. Miami’s Lincoln
particular Fifth Avenue, is a clear exception,                                                                      In terms of occupancy growth, positive net
                                                             Road shopping district (South Beach) saw
buoyed by a bounce-back in the financial                                                                            absorption was recorded in 32 of the 58
                                                             rents increase by $35.00, with current aver-
services sector and a surge in tourism.                                                                             markets tracked, with the balance returning
                                                             age asking rents standing at $135.00 per
Beyond New York, however, landlords                                                                                 space to the market. For the 58 markets, first-
                                                             square foot. Post Street, in San Francisco’s
continue to struggle to push rents higher.                                                                          quarter absorption totaled 1.9 million square
                                                             Union Square shopping district, saw rents
Supporting urban retail and keeping vacancy                                                                         feet. This compares with 4.6 million square
                                                             increase by 6.3% to $340.00 per square foot.
low is the lack of new construction, with only                                                                      feet in the fourth quarter and a contraction of
modest new supply coming on line, often in                                                                          2.2 million square feet in the same period a
the form of mixed use. Critical to many down-                VACANCY SURVEY                                         year ago.
town retail leasing markets is the preference                First-quarter data indicates a current national
by many new non-U.S. retailers to locate in                  vacancy rate of 10.88 percent for neighbor-            In contrast to a few years ago, very few
more familiar urban environments. Vibrant                    hood/community centers—an increase of 19               markets are posting significant occupancy
urban retail markets such as New York,                       basis points during the quarter, broadly in line       losses, with the exception of Phoenix, where
Boston, Los Angeles (West), Chicago,                         with Q1 2010. Despite many of these                    occupied space contracted by 430,000 square


P. 4     | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2010 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES


feet. Of the five markets registering significant positive net absorption,
                                                                                METRO AREAS INDICATING DOMINANT FORM OF DEVELOPMENT
Raleigh-Durham led the with way with occupied space increasing by
418,000 square feet, followed by Atlanta (402,000 square feet), Long
Island (318,000 square feet), Denver (314,000 square feet) and St.                2011
Louis (302,000 square feet).
                                                                                                               Neighborhood
CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK                                                                          Mixed Use           Center
                                                                                                20%                16%
The outlook for retail construction remains extremely subdued. During
the first quarter, just 2.0 million square feet was brought to the market.                                                   Lifestyle
                                                                                                                                9%
This was broadly in line with the prior quarter and only marginally up
from a year ago. Compared to the 2005–2007 period, however,                                                                    Power
current construction is just a fraction of what it was—approximately 10                                                        Center
                                                                                            Freestanding                        9%
percent.                                                                                        33%

Looking toward the balance of 2011 and into 2012, there is little likeli-                                                        Community Center
hood of development increasing anytime soon. Only 4.0 million square                                                                  7%
feet of development was underway at the end of the first quarter,                                                      Streetfront/Urban In ll
compared with 6.9 million square feet a year ago. Construction financ-                                                           5%
                                                                                      Source: Colliers Research.
ing remains very difficult to secure, and rents remain too low to justify             Based on 55 U.S. metropolitan areas.
new construction. Of the new retail development taking place, most
will be power or outlet centers, mixed-use or stand-alone.                        2010

RENTAL RATE TRENDS
                                                                                                           Mixed Use                     Streetfront/
Despite a general improvement in leasing conditions, rents continue to                                       20%                         Urban In ll
                                                                                                                                             10%
drift lower. During the first quarter, shopping center (neighborhood                        Lifestyle
and community) rents fell a further 1.2 percent to average $15.86 per                         15%
                                                                                                                                              Power
square foot. This is the tenth consecutive quarter rents have declined                                                                        Center
and are now 14.3 percent below levels recorded in the third quarter of                                                                         5%
2008. This masks the fact that many markets have seen rents fall by                                                                         Community
                                                                                         Freestanding                                       Center: 2%
more than twice this amount and even more once concessions are                               20%
                                                                                                                                         Enclosed: 2%
taken into account.                                                                                          Neighborhood
                                                                                                                Center
                                                                                                                 27%
EXPANDING CONCEPTS
A more challenging economy has not been without some winners.
Deep discount retailers are expanding aggressively and new entrants                   Source: Colliers Research.
in the high-fashion, low price-point sector are opening new stores                    Based on 41 U.S. metropolitan areas.
wherever possible. Discounters including dollar stores, Costco,
Winners and Sam’s Club have thrived over the past several years.

Drug stores, restaurants, fast food and grocery stores remain the most
active retail categories. Changing demographics continue to help the
drug store sector even during the recent downturn in the economy.
Drug stores are viewed as recession-resistant for two reasons: first,
the aging boomer generation ensures more demand for healthcare;
and second, advances in medicine—as well as strong marketing from
pharmaceutical companies—has helped to significantly boost prescrip-
tion drug consumption.

Just as consumers are moving toward the discounter ranks, the same
is true for dining. Continued steady same-store sale increases
recorded by McDonald’s highlight the growth of the entire fast food
sector. Within the fast-food dining sector, burger operators such as
In-N-Out, Smashburger and Five Guys are particular standouts. Fast
food users are the third-most active user group in our national survey.



                                                                                                                  COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL |               P. 5
HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES



 RETAILERS RANKED BY ACTIVITY                                                                  LOOKING AHEAD
                                                                                               The overall retail landscape should broadly improve with the economy,
         2011                                                                                  even if recovery is sluggish. Job growth is frustratingly slow, but job
                                                                                               creation is focused on high-skill, high-pay jobs. This partly explains the
                                                                                               dichotomy that exists in retail today where high-end retailers such as
                               Fast Food
                                 10%                                                           Saks, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are posting double-digit same-
                    Restaurants          Supermarket/                                          store sales growth, while discounters such as Dollar Tree, Dollar
                       13%                Food Stores                                          General and Family Dollar are also recording robust sales.
                                             17%

                                                  Drug Stores
                                                                                               Online sales are also becoming a significant feature of the retail sector,
                      Discount
                      Retailers                       9%                                       and an accepted sales channel for almost all retailers, including depart-
                        23%                                                                    ment stores.; for instance, Macy’s May sales numbers were highlighted
                                                    Banks                                      by a 38 percent increase in online sales year-over-year.
                                                     9%
                                  Other
                                  12%                                                          One key trend that will significantly reduce demand in coming quar-
                                                      Apparel: 4%                              ters is the move to reduce store size by many big box retailers, such
                                                  Brand Retailers: 2%
                                     Gourmet                                                   as Best Buy. Many traditional big retailers have indicated they no
                                     Foods: 2%
                                                                                               longer believe the ideal store size is 30,000 to 50,000 square feet.
               Source: Colliers Research.
               Based on 55 U.S. metropolitan areas.
                                                                                               Their preference going forward will likely be 15,000 to 30,000
                                                                                               square-foot boxes as online sales continue to grow. The recent rise in
         2010                                                                                  gas prices is also spurring growth in online shopping. While prices are
                                                                                               unlikely to stay at levels experienced in April, May and June, a return
                                                                                               to cheap gas is also probably not a reasonable prospect; as a result,
                                    Restaurants
                                       13%                                                     retailers increasingly view online sales as one way to combat higher
                   Supermarket/                Fast Food                                       driving costs.
                    Food Stores                   11%
                       18%
                                                                                               Lastly, Apple is to a degree redefining the shopping experience, and
                                                  Drug Stores
                                                      9%                                       best reflects some of the changes underway in retail. Apple Stores,
                   Discount                                                                    with sales now averaging $4,400.00 per square foot, have quickly
                   Retailers
                                                                Banks: 5%                      become the gold standard in retailing, and almost every center that has
                     21%
                                                                                               an Apple Store is quickly viewed as a premier retail destination. This
                                                            Brand Retailers: 4%
                                    Other                                                      raising of the bar by Apple should be viewed as a window into the
                                    15%                  Discount Apparel: 3%
                                                    Home Improvement: 3%                       future of retail, and retail space. Not every retail property should look
                                             Quick Casual                                      like an Apple Store, but the Apple experience is something that retail
                                            Restaurants: 3%                                    property owners should probably try to emulate in varying degrees.
               Source: Colliers Research.
                                                                                               Now as ever, retail is constantly changing; the consumer is still much-
               Based on 41 U.S. metropolitan areas.                                            challenged and is very selective in where they shop.




 S&P RETAIL INDEX (RLX), NOV. 2007 – MAY 2011                                                  RETAIL SALES AND FOOD SERVICES, EXCLUDING MOTOR SALES AND PARTS

         550                                                                                                               15
         500
                                                                                                                           10
         450
                                                                                                Annual Percentage Change




         400
                                                                                                                            5
         350
 Index




         300                                                                                                                0
         250
                                                                                                                           -5
         200

         150                                                                                                               -10
               N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM                                     2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
           2007            2008                    2009                 2010         2011
                                                                                                           Source: U.S. Census Bureau




P. 6       | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES




                                                                                                                         512 offices in
                                                                                                                         61 countries on
                                                                                                                         6 continents
                                                                                                                         United States: 125
                                                                                                                         Canada: 38
                                                                                                                         Latin America: 18
                                                                                                                         Asia Pacific: 214
                                                                                                                         EMEA: 117
                                                                                                                     •   $1.5 billion in annual revenue
                                                                                                                     •   979 million square feet under
                                                                                                                         management
                                                                                                                     •   Over 12,500 professionals and staff


                                                                                                                         COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
                                                                                                                         601 Union Street, Suite 4800
                                                                                                                         Seattle, WA 98101
                                                                                                                         TEL +1 206 695 4200




                                                                                                                         FOR MORE INFORMATION
                                                                                                                         Ross J. Moore
                                                                                                                         Chief Economist | USA
                                                                                                                         TEL +1 617 722 0221
                                                                                                                         EMAIL ross.moore@colliers.com




Glossary                                                                                                                 Copyright © 2011 Colliers International.

                                                                                                                         The information contained herein has been obtained
                                                                                                                         from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable
Community Shopping Center – Usually configured as         off-price stores. Generally, regional centers are              effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot
                                                                                                                         guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any
a strip often in a straight line or “L” or “U” shape.     250,000-600,000 SF in size and are configured with             inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their
Anchor tenant is typically a discount department store    several freestanding (unconnected) anchors and a               professional advisors prior to acting on any of the
(i.e. Wal-Mart, Target), supermarket or super drug        minimal number of small specialty tenants.                     material contained in this report.

store. A community center typically offers a wider
range of apparel and other soft goods than a              Lifestyle Center – Non-anchored, open-air specialty
neighborhood center does. Total gross leasable area       center with high concentration of mall type fashion,
is often between 100,000 and 400,000 square feet.         home, restaurant and entertainment retailers.

Neighborhood Shopping Center – These centers are          Rents – All retail rents in this report are quoted on an
designed to provide convenience shopping for the          annual, triple net per square foot basis.
day-to-day needs of consumers in the immediate
neighborhood. Anchors are likely to be supermarkets       Cap Rate – (Or going-in cap rate) Capitalization rates
or drugstores. Other tenants might include stores         in this survey are based on multi-tenant institutional
providing sundries, snacks and personal services.         grade buildings fully leased at market rents. Cap rates
Generally, neighborhood centers are 30,000-150,000        are calculated by dividing net operating income (NOI)
SF in size and are configured as strip centers without    by purchase price.
an enclosed walkway or mall area, but may possibly
have a canopy to connect the storefronts.                 Land – Price per square foot for typical grocery
                                                          anchored neighborhood center (fully serviced &
Power Center – These centers are designed to              entitled/zoned).
provide tremendous selection in a particular
merchandise category at low prices. Anchors are           Note: SF = Square Feet
likely to be category killers, home improvement stores,         PSF = Per Square Foot
discount department stores, warehouse clubs or
                                                                                                                                   Accelerating success.


www.colliers.com

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Spring 2011 Retail Real Estate Highlights

  • 1. SPRING 2011 | RETAIL UNITED STATES HIGHLIGHTS Retail Real Estate Faring Better, But Many Challenges Still Exist ROSS J. MOORE Chief Economist | USA MARKET INDICATORS Compared to the dismal conditions of two years ago, the retail leasing market is considerably Spring Fall 2011 2011* better as the first half of 2011 comes to a close. Yet, for many retailers and landlords, the retail landscape still remains very challenging. While retail sales have been inching higher for much VACANCY of the past year, the gains have been exceptionally uneven with discount and high end retailers thriving, while mid-range retailers continue to struggle in the face of lackluster job growth, NET ABSORPTION stagnant wages, restrictive credit conditions, higher input costs, falling house values and CONSTRUCTION sharply higher gas prices. However, the economy continues to grow, new entrants are entering the market and many existing retailers are poised for growth. RENTAL RATE *Projected, relative to prior period LATEST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS TO 60.8 IN MAY FROM 66.0 IN APRIL Reflecting the fragile nature of the U.S. consumer, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) still remains well below its long-term average. For the first five months of 2011 the CCI has vacillated between 60 and 70. While this represents a considerable improvement from the lows experienced in 2009, it is still below 90 that is regarded as a U.S. RETAIL MARKET SUMMARY STATISTICS, Q1 2011 healthy level. Vacancy Rate: 10.88% Change from Q4 2010: 0.19 U.S. RETAIL REAL ESTATE MARKET, Q3 2009 – Q1 2011 Absorption: 8 11.5 Tepid demand is 1.8 Million Square Feet 11.0 keeping vacancy 6 Million Square Feet rates elevated, but 10.5 over the coming New Construction: 4 Vacancy (%) 10.0 quarters vacancies 2.0 Million Square Feet 2 are sure to shrink. 9.5 Under Construction: 0 4.0 Million Square Feet 9.0 -2 8.5 Asking Rents Per Square Foot -4 8.0 Shopping Center Space: $15.86 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Change from Q4 2010: -1.15% 2009 2010 2011 Absorption Completions Vacancy Source: CoStar, Colliers Research www.colliers.com
  • 2. HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES UNITED STATES | SHOPPING CENTER MARKET STATISTICS INVENTORY* NEW UNDER VACANCY VACANCY ABSORPTION QUOTED RENT YTD CHANGE MAR. 31, 2011 SUPPLY CONSTRUCTION RATE (%) RATE (%) Q1 2011 (USD PSF) IN RENT MARKET (SF) Q1 2011 (SF) (SF) DEC. 31, 2010 MAR. 31, 2011 (SF) MAR. 31, 2011 (%) Atlanta, GA 141,927,000 0 329,571 14.70 14.40 401,566 13.33 -1.2 Bakersfield, CA 8,902,000 0 35,000 8.30 8.50 31,173 15.27 1.2 Baltimore, MD 47,368,000 20,904 28,555 7.50 7.90 -99,930 18.58 0.5 Boise, ID 12,494,000 8,000 6,000 12.00 11.90 11,413 12.27 -0.4 Boston, MA 86,977,000 7,200 135,000 7.00 6.90 169,961 15.48 -3.0 Charleston, SC 12,770,000 11,500 4,860 11.00 10.00 135,652 13.62 -0.1 Charlotte, NC 52,259,000 70,000 0 11.90 12.10 -80,779 13.00 -0.8 Chicago, IL 164,143,000 47,000 0 12.40 12.20 217,640 15.87 2.5 Cincinnati, OH 35,099,000 0 0 14.30 14.40 -47,692 10.88 -3.3 Cleveland, OH 49,571,000 20,966 0 12.40 12.90 -127,812 11.25 -2.2 Columbia, SC 15,512,000 0 0 8.30 8.20 5,675 11.42 -3.4 Columbus, OH 29,726,000 67,600 15,318 13.60 13.70 82,926 12.70 4.3 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 151,862,000 6,400 195,595 13.10 13.30 -108,591 13.14 1.0 Denver, CO 70,221,000 206,930 280,303 10.50 10.40 314,098 14.10 -1.9 Detroit, MI 69,313,000 7,250 33,644 16.10 15.90 31,584 12.56 1.2 Fresno, CA 24,904,000 0 0 11.20 11.50 -110,011 13.26 -2.9 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward Co., FL 48,363,000 0 0 10.50 11.00 -84,391 17.34 -0.4 Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 29,238,000 187,545 28,800 11.90 11.50 230,911 9.44 -1.8 Hartford, CT 41,858,000 90,500 18,742 8.60 8.70 27,413 13.70 0.9 Hawaii 17,296,045 0 0 4.10 3.90 2,173 32.58 1.6 Houston, TX 151,704,000 48,600 124,211 10.40 10.30 155,333 14.07 -1.0 Indianapolis, IN 39,741,000 9,000 0 12.90 12.90 -138,163 11.76 -1.0 Jacksonville, FL 35,476,000 0 23,495 13.60 13.00 108,301 13.74 -0.4 Kansas City, MO-KS 39,386,000 0 11,060 15.10 14.60 8,368 11.79 0.6 Las Vegas, NV 49,962,000 0 29,400 15.40 15.90 -208,755 17.33 -3.7 Little Rock, AK 14,963,000 0 0 8.20 8.20 -33,883 9.20 5.9 Long Island, NY 50,013,000 284960 44907 4.70 4.90 317,357 24.04 -0.7 Los Angeles – Inland Empire, CA 84,842,000 32,554 69,383 11.60 11.80 -216,872 18.05 1.0 Los Angeles, CA 146,699,000 4,745 101,507 6.90 6.70 -123,454 23.11 -3.3 Louisville, KY 27,729,000 405 5,500 12.70 11.60 301,718 10.88 -2.8 Memphis, TN 30,607,000 313 0 12.50 13.00 -38,858 10.66 -2.1 Miami/Dade County, FL 44,299,000 0 52,780 6.50 6.10 153,626 21.65 -2.0 Milwaukee, WI 33,572,000 9,140 0 11.50 11.90 -14,006 12.06 -2.1 Minneapolis, MN 53,827,000 1,479 190,000 9.60 9.70 -114,756 13.51 -2.2 Nashville, TN 30,068,000 0 0 10.70 10.60 89,907 13.62 -0.4 New Jersey - Northern 91,183,000 37,974 227,956 8.70 8.90 -70,824 19.72 -0.2 Oakland/East Bay, CA 41,526,000 4,500 39,078 7.30 7.10 89,027 21.65 -3.0 Oklahoma City, OK 29,157,000 25000 257541 11.20 11.2 -7823 10.12 0.3 Omaha, NB 16,180,000 43000 0 12.10 12.2 23315 11.04 -4.3 Orange County, CA 63,238,000 0 15,000 6.60 6.20 199,313 22.54 -3.0 Orlando, FL 62,960,000 18,038 36,218 11.80 12.00 -55,940 15.34 -0.8 Palm Beach County, FL 35,726,000 0 0 11.30 11.20 108,839 17.53 -1.7 Philadelphia, PA 149,415,000 54,824 578,604 9.70 9.60 142,191 14.38 -1.0 Phoenix, AZ 103,779,000 1,504 51,284 15.30 16.00 -430,105 14.89 -3.0 Portland, OR 33,932,000 24,000 276,286 8.10 8.50 -32,818 18.20 -0.8 Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC 37,847,000 345,933 145,165 8.90 8.50 417,597 14.33 -5.4 Reno, NV 10,337,000 0 0 14.60 14.60 11,608 15.89 -1.1 Sacramento, CA 50,407,000 0 0 13.80 13.80 -31,821 17.55 -2.2 San Diego, CA 54,688,000 34,288 3,500 7.70 7.70 45,320 21.25 -0.8 San Francisco, CA 10,181,000 0 0 4.80 5.10 -45,140 28.43 -5.9 San Jose/South Bay, CA 31,666,000 32,067 137,177 7.30 7.20 13,033 26.22 -3.1 Savannah, GA 6,747,000 0 36,023 8.00 7.80 18,423 14.75 2.0 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 56,006,000 8,288 45,987 10.40 10.70 -74,620 18.25 -0.7 St. Louis, MO-KS 52,864,000 14,947 231,535 11.00 10.80 157,975 12.41 -0.9 Stockton, CA 18,982,000 0 0 11.10 11.30 -20,722 15.35 -1.7 Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL 87,569,000 85,781 0 11.00 11.00 122,147 13.27 -0.9 Washington, DC 83,843,000 144,734 51,353 7.40 7.50 -54,994 22.67 1.3 Westchester County, NY 31,712,978 0 152,900 6.40 6.40 -5,649 18.62 0.0 U.S. TOTAL/AVERAGE 3,070,924,045 2,017,869 4,049,238 10.69 10.88 1,767,174 15.86 -1.15 *Community and Neighborhood Centers. Source: CoStar, Colliers Research P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
  • 3. HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2010 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES Consumer confidence is a key variable which U.S. RETAIL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE, 1999-2011 can act as an important barometer for retail- ers and landlords. The soft labor market and 50 46.8 still-uncertain economic backdrop are both 40 40.0 preventing consumers from increasing their 33.4 30.4 29.0 30 27.2 spending behavior. Until consumers feel more 21.1 23.0 20.0 confident about job security and see a drop in 20 18.0 17.1 Annual Total Returns (%) 13.7 11.8 13.4 13.5 12.6 9.6 gas and food prices, it is hard to foresee the 10 7.8 6.7 4.51** CCI moving above the 60 to 70 level. At these 1.0* 0 levels, most consumers will be hesitant to -4.1 make big purchases and will be preoccupied -10 -10.9 with a search for value at the best possible -20 -11.8 -15.8 price. -30 Private Equity Public Equity UNEMPLOYMENT IS EXPECTED -40 -48.4 TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH -50 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 AT LEAST 2015 U.S. unemployment is forecast to finish the *YTD Q1 returns only **YTD March returns only Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts year at 8.6 percent and is not expected to drop below 7.0 percent until 2015 (IHS Global Insight). The May jobs report shows the national unemployment rate was 9.1 percent, With so many headwinds, the retail landscape the Federal Reserve shows that outstanding with many states and metros still registering remains a broad mix of winners and losers. commercial loans and industrial leases have double-digit unemployment. The latest data Bankruptcies continue to be a feature of an increased for the seventh consecutive month, shows stubbornly high unemployment rates in uncertain market landscape. In the past year after shrinking for much of 2008, 2009 and states such as Nevada, California, Michigan the market has had to digest many retailers 2010. Publicly traded retailers have also seen and Florida in particular. Major metropolitan seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a surge in their share price, allowing many to areas with double-digit unemployment rates including Borders Group, Blockbuster Video, raise new equity and once again have access include Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea (A&P), Sbarro to the capital markets. However, small busi- Angeles, Memphis, Miami, Sacramento, San Pizza and recently, the Perkins & Marie nesses—often family-owned—continue to Jose and Tampa. Callender’s restaurant chains. These bank- face a very restrictive lending environment, ruptcies are primarily due to competition from restricting new concepts and franchise A weak labor market is not the only factor wholesale clubs, the entry of drug stores in opportunities. negatively impacting consumer spending. new retail categories and the continued The latest Commerce Department data shows expansion of supercenters. Rising input costs, After a surge in store closings in 2008 and personal incomes are up 4.4 percent for the technology and changing spending habits have 2009, retailers’ shutting stores appears to ave year ending April; however, real disposable also contributed. These most recent bankrupt- moderated. Data from the International incomes are up a more modest 1.2 percent. cies come on the heels of Circuit City and Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) indicates With a relatively weak labor market, incomes Linens ’n Things, after inflation are unlikely to grow any more both of which filed than 1.0 or 2.0 percent. This is a significant for Chapter 11 RETAIL SPACE DELIVERIES, 2000-2011 headwind, and not one that is expected to protection in 2008, 300 disappear anytime soon. but also have yet to lease up many of the 250 Simultaneously, based on the last few months, empty stores scat- the savings rate appears to have leveled out t e re d a c ro ss t h e Million Square Feet 200 near 5.0 percent. For the past year the country. 150 savings rate has ranged between 5.0 and 6.0 percent. According to statistics from the U.S. One positive change 100 Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal over the past 12 savings rate in the U.S. hovered in the 0.0 months has been the 50 percent to 1.0 percent range from 2005 to gradual return of early 2008. While this newfound prudence is credit in the wake of 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* something that is good for consumers in the the global financial *Future deliveries based on current under-construction buildings long run, it is yet another factor behind crisis of 2008/2009. Source: CoStar reduced consumer spending. May 2011 data from COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
  • 4. HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES shopping centers being anchored by more YEAR-TO-DATE SALES ENDING APRIL 2011 – U.S. CONSUMER stable retailers such as grocery and drug ANNUAL stores, vacancies remain elevated by historic 2011 2010 CHANGE (%) standards. All Stores 1,471,037 1,361,222 8.1 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 268,412 234,189 14.6 With retail vacancies staying stubbornly high, Gasoline Stations 166,213 142,195 16.9 a significant number of markets still have retail vacancy rates above the 12-percent All Stores less Automotive 1,036,412 984,838 5.2 mark. Phoenix, Detroit and Las Vegas in Food and Beverage Stores 195,947 187,111 4.7 particular have vacancies over 15 percent, but Grocery Stores 177,249 168,767 5.0 in descending order all of the following Health and Personal Care Stores 90,433 85,523 5.7 markets have vacancis of 12 percent or All Stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies 750,032 712,204 5.3 higher: Reno (14.6%), Kansas City (14.6%), Building Material and Garden Equipment 87,287 84,913 2.8 At l a n t a ( 1 4 .4 % ) , C i n c i nn a t i ( 1 4 .4 % ) , Stores Sacramento (13.8%), Columbus (13.7%), General Merchandise Stores 191,726 186,735 2.7 Dallas/Ft. Worth (13.3%), Jacksonville Department Stores (excluding leased 53,224 54,393 -2.1 (13.0%), Memphis (13.0%), Cleveland (12.9%), departments) Indianapolis (12.9%), Chicago (12.2%), Omaha Clothing and Accessories Stores 66,150 62,752 5.4 (12.2%) and Charlotte (12.1%). Cities that Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and 58,759 58,601 0.3 have seen vacancies drop below 12 percent in Appliance Stores the last year include Bakersfield (8.5%), Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores 27,757 27,720 0.1 Fresno (11.5%), Greenville/Spartanburg Electronics and Appliance Stores 31,002 30,881 0.4 (11.5%), St. Louis 10.8%), and Houston Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores 25,935 24,769 4.7 (10.3%). Miscellaneous Store Retailers 35,778 33,211 7.7 Some of the strongest U.S. markets in terms Nonstore Retailers 126,681 111,267 13.9 of low vacancy are those that are land- Food Services and Drinking Places 157,716 149,956 5.2 constrained and have seen a pronounced Source: U.S. Census Bureau. All values are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted. bounce-back in their local economy. San Francisco, a city of just 49 square miles with that a total of 146,000 stores closed in both Honolulu (Waikiki), Seattle, Greenwich, only a handful of neighborhood/community 2008 and 2009, while preliminary data Washington, D.C., San Francisco, San Jose centers, serves as a poster child for this suggests 2010 closings fell to approximately (Santana Row) and Miami continue to perform scenario with a vacancy rate of just 5.1%. 130,000. This number is expected to stay better than their suburban counterparts. That being said, there were a number of near this level, highlighting the challenging markets that recorded vacancy levels of 7.0% nature of retail. The average rent for Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue or less—namely Los Angeles (6.7%), Miami/ surged over the past year, rising by $900.00 Dade County (6.1%), Boston (6.9%), Hawaii URBAN RETAIL to register $2,150.00 per square foot. New (3.9%), Long Island (4.9%), Orange County York’s Madison Avenue also jumped higher, (6.2%) and Westchester County (6.4%). Urban retail continues to be a bright spot increasing by $118.00 to average $708.00 per relative to suburban retail—however, even the square foot. Storefront retail rents on Los OCCUPANCY GROWTH/ country’s premier streets are finding leasing Angeles’ Rodeo Drive largely held steady at ABSORPTION TRENDS markets fairly challenging. New York, and in $425.00 per square foot. Miami’s Lincoln particular Fifth Avenue, is a clear exception, In terms of occupancy growth, positive net Road shopping district (South Beach) saw buoyed by a bounce-back in the financial absorption was recorded in 32 of the 58 rents increase by $35.00, with current aver- services sector and a surge in tourism. markets tracked, with the balance returning age asking rents standing at $135.00 per Beyond New York, however, landlords space to the market. For the 58 markets, first- square foot. Post Street, in San Francisco’s continue to struggle to push rents higher. quarter absorption totaled 1.9 million square Union Square shopping district, saw rents Supporting urban retail and keeping vacancy feet. This compares with 4.6 million square increase by 6.3% to $340.00 per square foot. low is the lack of new construction, with only feet in the fourth quarter and a contraction of modest new supply coming on line, often in 2.2 million square feet in the same period a the form of mixed use. Critical to many down- VACANCY SURVEY year ago. town retail leasing markets is the preference First-quarter data indicates a current national by many new non-U.S. retailers to locate in vacancy rate of 10.88 percent for neighbor- In contrast to a few years ago, very few more familiar urban environments. Vibrant hood/community centers—an increase of 19 markets are posting significant occupancy urban retail markets such as New York, basis points during the quarter, broadly in line losses, with the exception of Phoenix, where Boston, Los Angeles (West), Chicago, with Q1 2010. Despite many of these occupied space contracted by 430,000 square P. 4 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
  • 5. HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2010 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES feet. Of the five markets registering significant positive net absorption, METRO AREAS INDICATING DOMINANT FORM OF DEVELOPMENT Raleigh-Durham led the with way with occupied space increasing by 418,000 square feet, followed by Atlanta (402,000 square feet), Long Island (318,000 square feet), Denver (314,000 square feet) and St. 2011 Louis (302,000 square feet). Neighborhood CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK Mixed Use Center 20% 16% The outlook for retail construction remains extremely subdued. During the first quarter, just 2.0 million square feet was brought to the market. Lifestyle 9% This was broadly in line with the prior quarter and only marginally up from a year ago. Compared to the 2005–2007 period, however, Power current construction is just a fraction of what it was—approximately 10 Center Freestanding 9% percent. 33% Looking toward the balance of 2011 and into 2012, there is little likeli- Community Center hood of development increasing anytime soon. Only 4.0 million square 7% feet of development was underway at the end of the first quarter, Streetfront/Urban In ll compared with 6.9 million square feet a year ago. Construction financ- 5% Source: Colliers Research. ing remains very difficult to secure, and rents remain too low to justify Based on 55 U.S. metropolitan areas. new construction. Of the new retail development taking place, most will be power or outlet centers, mixed-use or stand-alone. 2010 RENTAL RATE TRENDS Mixed Use Streetfront/ Despite a general improvement in leasing conditions, rents continue to 20% Urban In ll 10% drift lower. During the first quarter, shopping center (neighborhood Lifestyle and community) rents fell a further 1.2 percent to average $15.86 per 15% Power square foot. This is the tenth consecutive quarter rents have declined Center and are now 14.3 percent below levels recorded in the third quarter of 5% 2008. This masks the fact that many markets have seen rents fall by Community Freestanding Center: 2% more than twice this amount and even more once concessions are 20% Enclosed: 2% taken into account. Neighborhood Center 27% EXPANDING CONCEPTS A more challenging economy has not been without some winners. Deep discount retailers are expanding aggressively and new entrants Source: Colliers Research. in the high-fashion, low price-point sector are opening new stores Based on 41 U.S. metropolitan areas. wherever possible. Discounters including dollar stores, Costco, Winners and Sam’s Club have thrived over the past several years. Drug stores, restaurants, fast food and grocery stores remain the most active retail categories. Changing demographics continue to help the drug store sector even during the recent downturn in the economy. Drug stores are viewed as recession-resistant for two reasons: first, the aging boomer generation ensures more demand for healthcare; and second, advances in medicine—as well as strong marketing from pharmaceutical companies—has helped to significantly boost prescrip- tion drug consumption. Just as consumers are moving toward the discounter ranks, the same is true for dining. Continued steady same-store sale increases recorded by McDonald’s highlight the growth of the entire fast food sector. Within the fast-food dining sector, burger operators such as In-N-Out, Smashburger and Five Guys are particular standouts. Fast food users are the third-most active user group in our national survey. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 5
  • 6. HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES RETAILERS RANKED BY ACTIVITY LOOKING AHEAD The overall retail landscape should broadly improve with the economy, 2011 even if recovery is sluggish. Job growth is frustratingly slow, but job creation is focused on high-skill, high-pay jobs. This partly explains the dichotomy that exists in retail today where high-end retailers such as Fast Food 10% Saks, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are posting double-digit same- Restaurants Supermarket/ store sales growth, while discounters such as Dollar Tree, Dollar 13% Food Stores General and Family Dollar are also recording robust sales. 17% Drug Stores Online sales are also becoming a significant feature of the retail sector, Discount Retailers 9% and an accepted sales channel for almost all retailers, including depart- 23% ment stores.; for instance, Macy’s May sales numbers were highlighted Banks by a 38 percent increase in online sales year-over-year. 9% Other 12% One key trend that will significantly reduce demand in coming quar- Apparel: 4% ters is the move to reduce store size by many big box retailers, such Brand Retailers: 2% Gourmet as Best Buy. Many traditional big retailers have indicated they no Foods: 2% longer believe the ideal store size is 30,000 to 50,000 square feet. Source: Colliers Research. Based on 55 U.S. metropolitan areas. Their preference going forward will likely be 15,000 to 30,000 square-foot boxes as online sales continue to grow. The recent rise in 2010 gas prices is also spurring growth in online shopping. While prices are unlikely to stay at levels experienced in April, May and June, a return to cheap gas is also probably not a reasonable prospect; as a result, Restaurants 13% retailers increasingly view online sales as one way to combat higher Supermarket/ Fast Food driving costs. Food Stores 11% 18% Lastly, Apple is to a degree redefining the shopping experience, and Drug Stores 9% best reflects some of the changes underway in retail. Apple Stores, Discount with sales now averaging $4,400.00 per square foot, have quickly Retailers Banks: 5% become the gold standard in retailing, and almost every center that has 21% an Apple Store is quickly viewed as a premier retail destination. This Brand Retailers: 4% Other raising of the bar by Apple should be viewed as a window into the 15% Discount Apparel: 3% Home Improvement: 3% future of retail, and retail space. Not every retail property should look Quick Casual like an Apple Store, but the Apple experience is something that retail Restaurants: 3% property owners should probably try to emulate in varying degrees. Source: Colliers Research. Now as ever, retail is constantly changing; the consumer is still much- Based on 41 U.S. metropolitan areas. challenged and is very selective in where they shop. S&P RETAIL INDEX (RLX), NOV. 2007 – MAY 2011 RETAIL SALES AND FOOD SERVICES, EXCLUDING MOTOR SALES AND PARTS 550 15 500 10 450 Annual Percentage Change 400 5 350 Index 300 0 250 -5 200 150 -10 N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau P. 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
  • 7. HIGHLIGHTS | SPRING 2011 | RETAIL | UNITED STATES 512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents United States: 125 Canada: 38 Latin America: 18 Asia Pacific: 214 EMEA: 117 • $1.5 billion in annual revenue • 979 million square feet under management • Over 12,500 professionals and staff COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 601 Union Street, Suite 4800 Seattle, WA 98101 TEL +1 206 695 4200 FOR MORE INFORMATION Ross J. Moore Chief Economist | USA TEL +1 617 722 0221 EMAIL ross.moore@colliers.com Glossary Copyright © 2011 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable Community Shopping Center – Usually configured as off-price stores. Generally, regional centers are effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any a strip often in a straight line or “L” or “U” shape. 250,000-600,000 SF in size and are configured with inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their Anchor tenant is typically a discount department store several freestanding (unconnected) anchors and a professional advisors prior to acting on any of the (i.e. Wal-Mart, Target), supermarket or super drug minimal number of small specialty tenants. material contained in this report. store. A community center typically offers a wider range of apparel and other soft goods than a Lifestyle Center – Non-anchored, open-air specialty neighborhood center does. Total gross leasable area center with high concentration of mall type fashion, is often between 100,000 and 400,000 square feet. home, restaurant and entertainment retailers. Neighborhood Shopping Center – These centers are Rents – All retail rents in this report are quoted on an designed to provide convenience shopping for the annual, triple net per square foot basis. day-to-day needs of consumers in the immediate neighborhood. Anchors are likely to be supermarkets Cap Rate – (Or going-in cap rate) Capitalization rates or drugstores. Other tenants might include stores in this survey are based on multi-tenant institutional providing sundries, snacks and personal services. grade buildings fully leased at market rents. Cap rates Generally, neighborhood centers are 30,000-150,000 are calculated by dividing net operating income (NOI) SF in size and are configured as strip centers without by purchase price. an enclosed walkway or mall area, but may possibly have a canopy to connect the storefronts. Land – Price per square foot for typical grocery anchored neighborhood center (fully serviced & Power Center – These centers are designed to entitled/zoned). provide tremendous selection in a particular merchandise category at low prices. Anchors are Note: SF = Square Feet likely to be category killers, home improvement stores, PSF = Per Square Foot discount department stores, warehouse clubs or Accelerating success. www.colliers.com